Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Miss Violet Smith]

On the positive side, I haven't had to hear about how Pogačar is ruining cycling today.

 

[fenns]

I thought about it a little more and i think this is a clear sign that Pogacar is done. Don't think he'll ever win a bike race again.

No Lombardie is his for next 2 editions

 

[Cycling111]

On the positive side, I haven't had to hear about how Pogačar is ruining cycling today.

As you know. When others make a big difference, it's wonderful.

 

[fenns]

Remco was third in the Tour, far superior to them.

I'm not saying Vingegaard will be worse in the Tour, but Pogacar was so bad today that his Tour will be better than today's. Pogacar won't be 8 seconds behind Lipowitz in the Tour, and worse than Jorgenson, unless he gets sick or crashes.
If Pogacar had lost today to Remco and Vingegaard in third, it would be worrying. But when, on top of that, he's been worse than Jorgenson and at the level of Lipowitz, who was in the breakaway yesterday, it means Pogacar has been at an unusually poor level for him. Just like Remco's unusually poor level in the Dauphiné a year ago. That means that in a less unusual state, he'll improve. I'm not saying he'll win the Tour, but Pogacar's level today is poor and proportionally unrealistic againts several riders.

If Remco had performed worse than Roglic in the Dauphiné, it would have been worrying for him. But performing worse than Derek Gee or De Plus indicated he was unusually poor. And in a less unusual performances, his performance compared to Dauphiné improved proportionally more than that of Pogacar and Vingegaard compared to their previous races, although these were better than Remco in the Tour but the difference between Remco's performance in Dauphiné vs Remco in the 2024 Tour was much higher.
That's what I'm talking about.

1	1	-	ROGLIČ Primož	BORA - hansgrohe	500	250	26″	25:35:40
2	2	-	JORGENSON Matteo	Team Visma | Lease a Bike	400	190	16″	0:08
3	3	-	GEE Derek	Israel - Premier Tech	325	160	14″	0:36
4	5	▲1	RODRÍGUEZ Carlos	INEOS Grenadiers	275	140	10″	1:00
5	7	▲2	DE PLUS Laurens	INEOS Grenadiers	225	120		2:04
6	4	▼2	VLASOV Aleksandr	BORA - hansgrohe	175	110	4″	2:06
7	6	▼1	EVENEPOEL Remco	Soudal Quick-Step	150	100		2:25

But Remco didn't win the Tour.

The point I'm making is that emphatic Dauphine winners don't often go on to lose the Tour - and if they do it's because the Tour winner wasn't in the CdD.

These riders are going to be pretty much at their peak now - any improvements for July will be marginal.

I find TTs are a good indicator of overall form - if a skinny climber like Jonas is beating you by 28 secs it's time to worry.

 

[Cycling111]

But Remco didn't win the Tour.

The point I'm making is that emphatic Dauphine winners don't often go on to lose the Tour - and if they do it's because the Tour winner wasn't in the CdD.

These riders are going to be pretty much at their peak now - any improvements for July will be marginal.

I find TTs are a good indicator of overall form - if a skinny climber like Jonas is beating you by 28 secs it's time to worry.

But it's not just Vingegaard who beat him. If Vingegaard had beaten Pogacar in second place, then that would be indicative of the difference between them. But when Pogacar lost to Jorgenson, as had never happened before, and was on par with Lipowitz, it's the one that Pogacar's performance was unusually subpar.

 

[acm]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1932829255135646010

View: https://x.com/friebos/status/1932829255135646010?t=Rw2kerDohBMaA-1GxlJ4ZA&s=19

 

[fenns]

But it's not just Vingegaard who beat him. If Vingegaard had beaten Pogacar in second place, then that would be indicative of the difference between them. But when Pogacar lost to Jorgenson, as had never happened before, and was on par with Lipowitz, it's the one that Pogacar's performance wasn't unusually subpar.

Yes the fact that MJ was also ahead of Pogi is supportive of the "bay day" theory. Although it has to be said Visma have been remarkable of late.

 

[Cycling111]

Apparently, Pogacar set the fastest time on the climb. 8 seconds faster than Vingegaard, who was second best on the climb.

It's very strange, he had an unusually bad performance in the first 7km.

If he has so many problems with the bike, he should use last year's. LOL

I thought it was a poor performance physically, but knowing that he had a good climb, I don't know how to interpret the time trial.
It's very strange.

 

[rafa92]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1932829255135646010

View: https://x.com/friebos/status/1932829255135646010?t=Rw2kerDohBMaA-1GxlJ4ZA&s=19

UAE tt setup is arguably one of the worst in general (it's very old, the bike was released almost 4 years ago), and probably the worst when there's a very steep hill. There's a video of pogacar holding visma TT bike to get the weight because he's clearly disappointed with the weight of his bike. He also had visible problems handling the bike on the flat and descents (he looked way different than on the descent of the TT in stage 21 of the 24 Tdf)

 

[CatchyH]

But Remco didn't win the Tour.

The point I'm making is that emphatic Dauphine winners don't often go on to lose the Tour - and if they do it's because the Tour winner wasn't in the CdD.

These riders are going to be pretty much at their peak now - any improvements for July will be marginal.

I find TTs are a good indicator of overall form - if a skinny climber like Jonas is beating you by 28 secs it's time to worry.

I find the fact that Visma as a team has been flying lately and UAE has underperformed way more concerning than Jonas beating Pog today.

 

[rafa92]

Apparently, Pogacar set the fastest time on the climb. 8 seconds faster than Vingegaard, who was second best on the climb.

It's very strange, he had an unusually bad performance in the first 7km.

If he has so many problems with the bike, he should use last year's. LOL

I thought it was a poor performance physically, but knowing that he had a good climb, I don't know how to interpret the time trial.
It's very strange.

he clearly had problems with the bike and materials, it's impossible that he looses that much time on the flat, even in his january shape. The fact that he was good on the climb just proves it. He was shockingly bad (for his standards) on the flat

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Tom Boonen seeing the UAE Colnagos getting slammed....

 

[Cycling111]

I find the fact that Visma as a team has been flying lately and UAE has underperformed way more concerning than Jonas beating Pog today.

Simon Yates' performance in Finestre was underestimated here.
And today Kuss performed better in the time trial than the entire UAE team except for Pogacar.
I only remember one good time trial for Kuss, in the Vuelta when he was fliying.

 

[HashRouge]

Apparently, Pogacar set the fastest time on the climb. 8 seconds faster than Vingegaard, who was second best on the climb.

It's very strange, he had an unusually bad performance in the first 7km.

If he has so many problems with the bike, he should use last year's. LOL

I thought it was a poor performance physically, but knowing that he had a good climb, I don't know how to interpret the time trial.
It's very strange.

Wait, really? I wonder what went on with the flat sections. He didn't look super comfortable, so maybe it is to do with his position? His TT performances last year were really good, so it's naturally a bit concerning/ surprising when he's a bit ropey.

 

[HashRouge]

On the positive side, I haven't had to hear about how Pogačar is ruining cycling today.

Do you know, I was thinking the same thing! Quite refreshing

 

[BubbaChuck]

Can he put 40 on remco on saturday.yes.

 

[rafa92]

Apparently, Pogacar set the fastest time on the climb. 8 seconds faster than Vingegaard, who was second best on the climb.

It's very strange, he had an unusually bad performance in the first 7km.

If he has so many problems with the bike, he should use last year's. LOL

I thought it was a poor performance physically, but knowing that he had a good climb, I don't know how to interpret the time trial.
It's very strange.

are you sure about that time on the climb? where did you get it? because if that's true, today's result can be a huge problem for the tour, considering there's a 33km entirely flat TT, and there seemed to be a clear problem on the flat parts

 

[CatchyH]

Wait, really? I wonder what went on with the flat sections. He didn't look super comfortable, so maybe it is to do with his position? His TT performances last year were really good, so it's naturally a bit concerning/ surprising when he's a bit ropey.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1891936809682338012

View: https://x.com/tomdanielson/status/1891936809682338012

 

[acm]

UAE tt setup is arguably one of the worst in general (it's very old, the bike was released almost 4 years ago), and probably the worst when there's a very steep hill. There's a video of pogacar holding visma TT bike to get the weight because he's clearly disappointed with the weight of his bike. He also had visible problems handling the bike on the flat and descents (he looked way different than on the descent of the TT in stage 21 of the 24 Tdf)

Didn't they get new tt bikes for the Tour last year? They were flying in tt for the past two years...

 

[rafa92]

Tom Boonen seeing the UAE Colnagos getting slammed....

if a person of that caliber and with that knowledge of that world makes those kind of statements (even if he had to retreat a bit because of PR reasons) there is certainly a lot of truth

 

[Cycling111]

are you sure about that time on the climb? where did you get it? because if that's true, today's result can be a huge problem for the tour, considering there's a 33km entirely flat TT, and there seemed to be a clear problem on the flat parts

These are calculations they made at X.

It's not exact, but it seems he was the best on the climb. The seconds may vary, but he was definitely the best.
His worst stretch was the first 7 km.

I read another comment that said he had problems with the bike before start. I haven't seen this.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1932841506353664358

View: https://x.com/BenjiNaesen/status/1932841506353664358

https://twitter.com/x/status/1932839657013981423

View: https://x.com/BenjiNaesen/status/1932839657013981423

https://twitter.com/x/status/1932839727839039501

View: https://x.com/VeloFanaticcc/status/1932839727839039501

 

[rafa92]

Didn't they get new tt bikes for the Tour last year? They were flying in tt for the past two years...

no the bike model is called TT1 and was released at the beginning of 2022, then they might change other materials every year

 

[Rackham]

Didn't they get new tt bikes for the Tour last year? They were flying in tt for the past two years...

Yep. Ayuso in particular looked pretty impressive earlier this year in his ITT's.

 

[HashRouge]

These are calculations they made at X.

It's not exact, but it seems he was the best on the climb. The seconds may vary, but he was definitely the best.
His worst stretch was the first 7 km.

I read another comment that said he had problems with the bike before start. I haven't seen this.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1932841506353664358

View: https://x.com/BenjiNaesen/status/1932841506353664358

https://twitter.com/x/status/1932839657013981423

View: https://x.com/BenjiNaesen/status/1932839657013981423

https://twitter.com/x/status/1932839727839039501

View: https://x.com/VeloFanaticcc/status/1932839727839039501

Okay, that is weird. I did notice he was down on the climb because they showed him, Jonas and Remco at the same point and I noticed he was 9 mins+, whereas I'd been sure Remco and Jonas were under 9 mins. I didn't go back and check though so didn't realise that most of his time loss to Jonas was prior to that point. It could have been a pacing strategy, but would seem odd to go for a significant negative split like that.

 

[SafeBet]

The first 7 km might have been very bad but let's not pretend his final 7 km were good. He lost more than 2s/km to Remco from T1 to finish.

The only stretch where he was alright was the climb, which btw contradicts the idea that a heavy bike would be the main issue.