- May 16, 2015
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Remco was third in the Tour, far superior to them.
I'm not saying Vingegaard will be worse in the Tour, but Pogacar was so bad today that his Tour will be better than today's. Pogacar won't be 8 seconds behind Lipowitz in the Tour, and worse than Jorgenson, unless he gets sick or crashes.
If Pogacar had lost today to Remco and Vingegaard in third, it would be worrying. But when, on top of that, he's been worse than Jorgenson and at the level of Lipowitz, who was in the breakaway yesterday, it means Pogacar has been at an unusually poor level for him. Just like Remco's unusually poor level in the Dauphiné a year ago. That means that in a less unusual state, he'll improve. I'm not saying he'll win the Tour, but Pogacar's level today is poor and proportionally unrealistic againts several riders.
If Remco had performed worse than Roglic in the Dauphiné, it would have been worrying for him. But performing worse than Derek Gee or De Plus indicated he was unusually poor. And in a less unusual performances, his performance compared to Dauphiné improved proportionally more than that of Pogacar and Vingegaard compared to their previous races, although these were better than Remco in the Tour but the difference between Remco's performance in Dauphiné vs Remco in the 2024 Tour was much higher.
That's what I'm talking about.
1 1 - ROGLIČ Primož BORA - hansgrohe 500 250 26″ 25:35:40 2 2 - JORGENSON Matteo Team Visma | Lease a Bike 400 190 16″ 0:08 3 3 - GEE Derek Israel - Premier Tech 325 160 14″ 0:36 4 5 ▲1 RODRÍGUEZ Carlos INEOS Grenadiers 275 140 10″ 1:00 5 7 ▲2 DE PLUS Laurens INEOS Grenadiers 225 120 2:04 6 4 ▼2 VLASOV Aleksandr BORA - hansgrohe 175 110 4″ 2:06 7 6 ▼1 EVENEPOEL Remco Soudal Quick-Step 150 100 2:25
But Remco didn't win the Tour.
The point I'm making is that emphatic Dauphine winners don't often go on to lose the Tour - and if they do it's because the Tour winner wasn't in the CdD.
These riders are going to be pretty much at their peak now - any improvements for July will be marginal.
I find TTs are a good indicator of overall form - if a skinny climber like Jonas is beating you by 28 secs it's time to worry.
