Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[tobydawq]

If you think they just let Nibali escape then they were fools, because everybody knew how fast he descends. No, Nibali was cagey and the others couldn't follow.

That is just not true. Please don't expect me to believe that 2018 Sagan could not follow Nibali on the Poggio...

 

[Salvarani]

Nibali only won MSR because nobody cared about him. He was declining so no one believed he would be able to pull it off. Pogacar doesn't have this privilege.

I think very much this is it.

Everybody was waiting for Pog and held on for dear life when he attacked. The race shattered into just a handful of riders, when the attack finally came. It was expected and anticipated by everyone.

At the end of the day, MVDP and Van Aert could still win from a reduced sprint. They dont necessarily need to go solo like MVDP did today, even though that is of course very favorable. The win is certain. Who doesnt want to win MSR in the way he did today? Solo on Via Roma. A dream come true.

Pog still has a good sprint, if it is against other good climbers but it is farfetched that he is able to beat a smaller group of riders that includes the likes of MVDP, Van Aert, Pedersen and so on. Who knows, it could be possible, but a bit farfetched as of now. He must try to drop them or get away with a couple of riders that arent the aforementioned riders. If no one tries what Pog is doing, we will start to see a bigger group sprint for the win over Via Roma sooner rather than later.

Right now Pog has been the king maker of this race two years in a row. Other riders have been able to counter after Pog has shattered the race. Pog needs someone who is strong, close to his level, that also needs to attack like he has done to be able to win this race. Maybe then he could be able to be the one that gets the opportunity to counter-attack over the top of Poggio, while others are spent or looks at each other. Or just continue to hope he is able to drop the guys he needs to drop one edition to win the race. Had him and only Ganna gone over the top together, he would have probably favored his chances quite a bit. Ganna wouldnt have been able to attack right before the sprint, like he did today to get 2nd place. It would have been a H2H sprint for the win. Thats a hypothetical scenario and we might never now what the outcome would have been. Just that it would have probably been a good chance to win it for him.

Some posters on here also really want to take the chance to poke at him, just because he didnt win, but that is probably because they have their own selfish reasons to do so.

It was still a fantastic performance and without him the race wouldnt have been what it was in the end.

 

[Extinction]

That is just not true. Please don't expect me to believe that 2018 Sagan could not follow Nibali on the Poggio...

If Sagan could have, he would have. Beating Nibali in the sprint should have been short work.

 

[Extinction]

I think very much this is it.

Everybody was waiting for Pog and held on for dear life when he attacked.

Clearly this was not the case with MVP, which cancels the rest. Even Ganna had his number, only Van Aert was at the limit.

 

[Extinction]

When he attacked and saw that only Ganna was directly in his wheel, it was logical to keep pushing. With Wout and Mathieu on a little gap, Ganna could be the best one to have for the descent/flat. I think he didn't even looked back after he saw the gap.
Maybe one day he'll win this, with this approach he'll always ride the final.

Ganna was just the quickest to respond, but Wout and Matthieu were quick to get back on terms.

 

[Salvarani]

Clearly this was not the case with MVP, which cancels the rest. Even Ganna had his number, only Van Aert was at the limit.

They held on for dear life when he attacked. Only a handful of riders could follow.
Then there was a counter-move. MVDP had more in the tank and timed his final attack really well. It was the winning move.

What is it that was hard to understand about what I wrote?

What is it that I said that "cancels the rest"? I wrote they "held on". A few werent dropped... so obviously someone might still had more to give. It was great racing!

 

[Extinction]

They held on for dear life when he attacked. Only a handful of riders could follow.
Then there was a counter-move. MVDP had more in the tank and timed his final attack really well. It was the winning move.

What is it that was hard to understand about what I wrote?

What is it that I said that "cancels the rest"? I wrote they "held on". A few werent dropped... so obviously someone might still had more to give. It was great racing!

I don't agree that Pog had them holding on for dear life or, in any case, wasn't capable of dropping them. And when he insisted without any more power left to shake them, he perfectly launched MVP, as I previously wrote.

 

[Salvarani]

I don't agree that Pog had them holding on for dear life or, in any case, wasn't capable of dropping them. And when he insisted without any more power left to shake them, he perfectly launched MVP, as I previously wrote.

We can agree to disagree on that part then.

I think we are saying pretty much the same thing, so I dont understand the fuss.

Went perfectly for MVDP who was able to counter-attack and win the race, as I have written. How is that Pogs fault? What could he have done? He did what he needed to do. He played his card and then just couldnt follow. He still made the race and his output was decisive in the outcome of the race. Wasnt enough for him to win this time.

 

[Blanco]

Which confirms, today at least, he was not strong enough. He needed to pull a Nibali 2018, but lacked that extra something and when that was evident with an unexpected Ganna and much more expected Van Aert and MVP in tow, that's when going on the defense, which could be his Achille's heel, was called for and so sealed his fate.

Pulling a Nibali would be if Wellens went, or Soren Kragh, or Bilbao maybe.., with all the favorites looking at each other for a couple of minutes, and even then not going full gas, but some stop and go till the top of the Poggio. Sagan played a major part in Nibali's win, he didn't want to chase, and everybody else looked at him. Nibali by no means was a favorite on that day, he was an outsider, who tried his luck, had the strength, had the skill, and had the right circuimstances on his side. And it end as one of the gloriest days of his career. Deservedly so!

Now with Pogacar we had totally different situation, he was one of the main favorites, in superb form, and most importantly everyone and their mother knew that Pogacar will attack on Poggio. What Pogacar tried to do, is pulling a Merckx perhaps - aka riding everyone off his wheel, or trying to drag as few riders as possible with him, and try his luck in the sprint. But he didn't count on monster named Van Der Poel, or at least he didn't know monster is awake.

 

[Extinction]

We can agree to disagree on that part then.

I think we are saying pretty much the same thing, so I dont understand the fuss.

Went perfectly for MVDP who was able to counter-attack and win the race, as I have written. How is that Pogs fault? What could he have done? He did what he needed to do. He played his card and then just couldnt follow. He still made the race and his output was decisive in the outcome of the race. Wasnt enough for him to win this time.

No fuss, I'm just saying Pog got out-foxed by MVP, in part, however, because he continued on the offensive when it was up. He didn't have the legs to drop them, so should have switched to cat and mouse mode, but didn't. MVP may simply have been stronger, but I think Pog rode right into a wall of his own making. He wasn't the same Tadej as at PN and thus may even have "sinned" of hubris. But I don't think he could have expected MVP to be so strong, after SB and TA, yet was and stomped him.

 

[Salvarani]

No fuss, I'm just saying Pog got out-foxed by MVP, in part, however, because he continued on the offensive when it was up. He didn't have the legs to drop them, so should have switched to cat and mouse mode, but didn't. MVP may simply have been stronger, but I think Pog rode right into a wall of his own making. He wasn't the same Tadej as at PN and thus may even have "sinned" of hubris. But I don't think he could have expected MVP to be so strong, after SB and TA, yet was and stomped him.

I think you are nit-picking and being overly critical in hindsight.

The second part of this is not even worth discussing. It is just pure speculation and a narrative you are making up,

 

[Extinction]

Pulling a Nibali would be if Wellens went, or Soren Kragh, or Bilbao maybe.., with all the favorites looking at each other for a couple of minutes, and even then not going full gas, but some stop and go till the top of the Poggio. Sagan played a major part in Nibali's win, he didn't want to chase, and everybody else looked at him. Nibali by no means was a favorite on that day, he was an outsider, who tried his luck, had the strength, had the skill, and had the right circuimstances on his side. And it end as one of the gloriest days of his career. Deservedly so!

Now with Pogacar we had totally different situation, he was one of the main favorites, in superb form, and most importantly everyone and their mother knew that Pogacar will attack on Poggio. What Pogacar tried to do, is pulling a Merckx perhaps - aka riding everyone off his wheel, or trying to drag as few riders as possible with him, and try his luck in the sprint. But he didn't count on monster named Van Der Poel, or at least he didn't know monster is awake.

I get all that, but I simply meant breaking away. I realize Pog needed to do so on strength (and so my point was since he could not, he should have switched tactics immeadiately), rather than guile as Nibali did (although he still had the legs to finish it off).

 

[Blanco]

I get all that, but I simply meant breaking away. I realize Pog needed to do so on strength (and so my point was since he could not, he should have switched tactics immeadiately), rather than guile as Nibali did (although he still had the legs to finish it off).

I know what you mean, but I think Pog wanted as small group as possible, to have a better shot. He just couldn't know Van Der Poel is that strong. He tried cat and mouse last year, with multiple attacks, but he got bigger group which increased possibility that someone escapes, as it happened.

 

[Salvarani]

I know what you mean, but I think Pog wanted as small group as possible, to have a better shot. He just couldn't know Van Der Poel is that strong. He tried cat and mouse last year, with multiple attacks, but he got bigger group which increased possibility that someone escapes, as it happened.

If he had pulled aside and no one had done anything… what would have happened? No attack from MVDP or the others. The riders behind would have came back or best case scenario the four of them would have made it to the finish. Chances to win sprint against both Van Aert and MVDP would have been slim to none.

Cant defend against the attack MVDP made the way it played out, difficult to forsee or know how strong he was in the race, and if you cant respond it is over.

 

[tobydawq]

If Sagan could have, he would have. Beating Nibali in the sprint should have been short work.

I'm sorry but what is the point of this?

Yes, Nibali won some impressive races, but it's really quite ludicrous to suggest that nobody could have followed him on the Poggio and that it wasn't a tactical win. When was Nibali ever a top rider for an explosive climb like that?

 

[Extinction]

I know what you mean, but I think Pog wanted as small group as possible, to have a better shot. He just couldn't know Van Der Poel is that strong. He tried cat and mouse last year, with multiple attacks, but he got bigger group which increased possibility that someone escapes, as it happened.

But the difference with last year is that Pog smartly went all in with one surge further up the climb, rather than drilling it from the bottom too soon, and then having to follow with a series of bursts that couldn't make a difference thereafter. This time he made the difference, just not by enough. I don't think he wanted a small group, but to go solo as he himself suggested afterwards when he admitted not being strong enough to do so.

Sorry, but he didn't try cat and mouse last year. He simply made a tactical error by going too soon at the bottom of the Poggio. This is why this year he had Tim Wellens set him up nicely to attack, by setting a blistering pace for half the climb. He just didn't have the legs to go it alone.

In my opinion, Pog's mistake was to have insisted with the offensive, rather than switch to defensive mode when he could not up the pace and to drop the remaining three, when it was clear they were there to stay. And insisting, Matthieu then pounced.

 

[Extinction]

I'm sorry but what is the point of this?

Yes, Nibali won some impressive races, but it's really quite ludicrous to suggest that nobody could have followed him on the Poggio and that it wasn't a tactical win. When was Nibali ever a top rider for an explosive climb like that?

Ok, he did go ahead by guile, but even the slightest hesitation meant Sagan couldn't get back to him.

 

[Blanco]

If he had pulled aside and no one had done anything… what would have happened? No attack from MVDP or the others. The riders behind would have came back or best case scenario the four of them would have made it to the finish. Chances to win sprint against both Van Aert and MVDP would have been slim to none.

Cant defend against the attack MVDP made the way it played out, difficult to forsee or know how strong he was in the race, and if you cant respond it is over.

Yeah, he was trying to shrink that group as much as possible, or at least to tire that two as much as he could, but was countered by a stronger rider on the day.
Maybe he was just as strong as Van Der Poel, truth, but worked too much. But Van Der Poel, for example, have much more options for this race than Pogacar, and he can afford to ride defensively and wait for his moment, while Pogacar can't.

 

[Blanco]

In my opinion, Pog's mistake was to have insisted with the offensive, rather than switch to defensive mode when he could not up the pace and to drop the remaining three, when it was clear they were there to stay. And insisting, Matthieu then pounced.

But what do you think would happen then?
Van Der Poel could attack nevertheless..
He or Van Aert could attack on the downhill...
He could also wait for the sprint, and Van Aert too...
Bigger group could form...

What I'm asking is how do you think slowing down would benefit Pogacar?

 

[nightowl]

Having seen how today’s race unfolded, I wonder if a strategy a bit more like 2022 is a better path to victory in this race for Pog. His biggest weapon is his acceleration, but we saw today that he just doesn’t have the raw power necessary to get a significant gap over the watt monsters of the peloton from such a fast leadout - the climb simply isn’t steep enough. From a slower pace though I think he has more chance, even Wellens starting his leadout today created a pretty instant gap.

Maybe in the future UAE need to go hard on and after the Cipressa to get rid of as many domestiques as possible, and then have the Poggio be taken at a slower pace for Pogacar to attack out of. Obviously that didn’t really work last year but with less of a headwind and a more well-placed attack (more like today) I wonder if that wouldn’t be his best chance of getting clear.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Maybe the pace could be a bit harder on Cipressa. Still that might not change much today. Good attempt and maybe next time.

 

[Nick2413]

In today’s race MVdP was 15 seconds faster combined between climbing, descending, and flat, so I don’t think anything Pog could do would change anything.

He can make micro changes but the chances of him winning this race have more to do with his opponents than himself. He clearly will be top 10 pretty much every edition, but winning requires MVdP not to be at his best today and a bit of luck in the sprint, or a bit of luck to get solo. In 5-10 editions he may get a win but I don’t think he handled it wrong.

 

[Extinction]

But what do you think would happen then?
Van Der Poel could attack nevertheless..
He or Van Aert could attack on the downhill...
He could also wait for the sprint, and Van Aert too...
Bigger group could form...

What I'm asking is how do you think slowing down would benefit Pogacar?

It would have taken that .5% less out of him that maybe was the difference, after almost 300 km, between mounting a response to MVP's attack and just watching him ride away. And then MVP would have gone 500 meters or so from further down the climb, so would have had to hold the chase off longer. This, too, may have been the difference between getting over the top alone or with company (as he only had a 2 second advantage at the top of the Poggio).

In any case, insisting Pog only gauranteed himself no defense. The best Tadej could have hoped for was being their for the finishing sprint, but the way he rode took him out of any chance of that happening, in my opinion.

 

[Extinction]

In today’s race MVdP was 15 seconds faster combined between climbing, descending, and flat, so I don’t think anything Pog could do would change anything.

I don't think so, because MVP was at 8 just secs with about one km to go, so the other 7 secs were gained by the others playing cat and mouse for the sprint for second place.

Clearly MVP was the strongest in the end and would likely have won under different circumstances too, but Pog could have veered over 500 meters earlier with a bit less energy spent and maybe this would have resulted in a different, more favorable, scenario for his approach to the line.

 

[Oldermanish]

It would have taken that .5% less out of him that maybe was the difference, after almost 300 km, between mounting a response to MVP's attack and just watching him ride away. And then MVP would have gone 500 meters or so from further down the climb, so would have had to hold the chase off longer. This, too, may have been the difference between getting over the top alone or with company (as he only had a 2 second advantage at the top of the Poggio).

In any case, insisting Pog only gauranteed himself no defense. The best Tadej could have hoped for was being their for the finishing sprint, but the way he rode took him out of any chance of that happening, in my opinion.

Honestly, Pog did what would have worked if they had gotten 15 seconds on MVP and WVA. Resting on their wheels would've only meant he's lose a little less time in the sprint. I love the guy but he's no match for them in that finish.