Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Ilmaestro99]

Forgive me for no speaking on Pogacar but I missed this discussion and now want to give some thoughts

A lot of people really forgetting how much hype there was about Bernal in 2016-19. Nowadays we are used to super young riders dominating , thanks to these super talents like remco, Pogacar, dr lie, Ajuso, Almida, Ujtedbreckes, de Torro. But in 2018 the main GT riders were froome, nibali, thomas, Dumolin, Yates, Quintana, Landa, etc. It was Bernal who paved the way for this new kind of super young, generational talent to come in and immediately go straight to the top.

Remember all the rumours of his talent and vo2 max on 2016 when he was 19 and getting placements with androni.

Remember how in his first few months he was competing for the win at Catalunya, Romandie, California against valverde, Roglic, Quintana, porte, Adam Yates.

Remember the Paris Nice win in 2019 when he was scintillating in the crosswinds, showing a level unheard of among the Colombian super talented climbers, a real racecraft, power intelligence. He seemed a complete talent with the strongest team behind him.

When Bernal win his tour, he beat the defending champion, and there was nobody at his level at the same age. The best riders were all in their twilight or guys like Simon Yates, carapax.

I don't understand how you could see the 2019 tour and no think that Bernal would be a big star with multiple GT wins. Maybe some of you could read something that I couldn't , maybe some of you use hindsight. I don't remember too much of what I thought at the time, I was just annoyed that Sky win le tour again and Nibali and Landa don't win anything.

Of course the 2019 vuelta showed how strong were Pogacar and Roglic, and since 2020 Bernal wasn't the same with his back problems ( although still win another grand tour). But at the moment of his tour win, Bernal seemed the complete rider to be the star of the stage races for the next few years. I mean who would be a better climber? S Yates?? Carapax??? Dumolin? Landa? Pinot?? LOL

 

[SHAD0W93]

Forgive me for no speaking on Pogacar but I missed this discussion and now want to give some thoughts

A lot of people really forgetting how much hype there was about Bernal in 2016-19. Nowadays we are used to super young riders dominating , thanks to these super talents like remco, Pogacar, dr lie, Ajuso, Almida, Ujtedbreckes, de Torro. But in 2018 the main GT riders were froome, nibali, thomas, Dumolin, Yates, Quintana, Landa, etc. It was Bernal who paved the way for this new kind of super young, generational talent to come in and immediately go straight to the top.

Remember all the rumours of his talent and vo2 max on 2016 when he was 19 and getting placements with androni.

Remember how in his first few months he was competing for the win at Catalunya, Romandie, California against valverde, Roglic, Quintana, porte, Adam Yates.

Remember the Paris Nice win in 2019 when he was scintillating in the crosswinds, showing a level unheard of among the Colombian super talented climbers, a real racecraft, power intelligence. He seemed a complete talent with the strongest team behind him.

When Bernal win his tour, he beat the defending champion, and there was nobody at his level at the same age. The best riders were all in their twilight or guys like Simon Yates, carapax.

I don't understand how you could see the 2019 tour and no think that Bernal would be a big star with multiple GT wins. Maybe some of you could read something that I couldn't , maybe some of you use hindsight. I don't remember too much of what I thought at the time, I was just annoyed that Sky win le tour again and Nibali and Landa don't win anything.

Of course the 2019 vuelta showed how strong were Pogacar and Roglic, and since 2020 Bernal wasn't the same with his back problems ( although still win another grand tour). But at the moment of his tour win, Bernal seemed the complete rider to be the star of the stage races for the next few years. I mean who would be a better climber? S Yates?? Carapax??? Dumolin? Landa? Pinot?? LOL

And later won the Giro with a bad back and was a swap with Adam away from being third in a Vuelta double with worsening back issues. He was very solid and the injuries have derailed him by a lot.

 

[staubsauger]

Quintana did not improve much since his major breakthrough in the 2013 Tour. He never won the Tour, and by 2019 it was clear that he never would. Likewise with Andy Schleck, who was younger when he was 2nd in the Giro than Bernal was when he won the Tour. He improved, he matured as a rider, but he never won a GT and he never acquired the toolkit to dominate a stage race.

So it'd be unreasonable to expect with any certainty that Bernal would become a Tour dominator.

It also has to do with choices.

If Andy Schleck immediately decides to race the 2011 Giro d'Italia and Contador in contrary then doesn't attempt the double, Schleck wins a grand tour instead of being awarded one later on.

Quintana did make those choices. Not just to ride the 2014 Giro d'Italia which in hindsight was a controversial decision the way that year's Tour played out. But especially to peak for the Vuelta a Espana in 2016,rather than the Tour de France. Which cost him and 2nd place in France, but earned him a big win in Spain!

 

[Salvarani]

Forgive me for no speaking on Pogacar but I missed this discussion and now want to give some thoughts

A lot of people really forgetting how much hype there was about Bernal in 2016-19. Nowadays we are used to super young riders dominating , thanks to these super talents like remco, Pogacar, dr lie, Ajuso, Almida, Ujtedbreckes, de Torro. But in 2018 the main GT riders were froome, nibali, thomas, Dumolin, Yates, Quintana, Landa, etc. It was Bernal who paved the way for this new kind of super young, generational talent to come in and immediately go straight to the top.

Remember all the rumours of his talent and vo2 max on 2016 when he was 19 and getting placements with androni.

Remember how in his first few months he was competing for the win at Catalunya, Romandie, California against valverde, Roglic, Quintana, porte, Adam Yates.

Remember the Paris Nice win in 2019 when he was scintillating in the crosswinds, showing a level unheard of among the Colombian super talented climbers, a real racecraft, power intelligence. He seemed a complete talent with the strongest team behind him.

When Bernal win his tour, he beat the defending champion, and there was nobody at his level at the same age. The best riders were all in their twilight or guys like Simon Yates, carapax.

I don't understand how you could see the 2019 tour and no think that Bernal would be a big star with multiple GT wins. Maybe some of you could read something that I couldn't , maybe some of you use hindsight. I don't remember too much of what I thought at the time, I was just annoyed that Sky win le tour again and Nibali and Landa don't win anything.

Of course the 2019 vuelta showed how strong were Pogacar and Roglic, and since 2020 Bernal wasn't the same with his back problems ( although still win another grand tour). But at the moment of his tour win, Bernal seemed the complete rider to be the star of the stage races for the next few years. I mean who would be a better climber? S Yates?? Carapax??? Dumolin? Landa? Pinot?? LOL

Great post.

 

[Netserk]

Forgive me for no speaking on Pogacar but I missed this discussion and now want to give some thoughts

A lot of people really forgetting how much hype there was about Bernal in 2016-19. Nowadays we are used to super young riders dominating , thanks to these super talents like remco, Pogacar, dr lie, Ajuso, Almida, Ujtedbreckes, de Torro. But in 2018 the main GT riders were froome, nibali, thomas, Dumolin, Yates, Quintana, Landa, etc. It was Bernal who paved the way for this new kind of super young, generational talent to come in and immediately go straight to the top.

Remember all the rumours of his talent and vo2 max on 2016 when he was 19 and getting placements with androni.

Remember how in his first few months he was competing for the win at Catalunya, Romandie, California against valverde, Roglic, Quintana, porte, Adam Yates.

Remember the Paris Nice win in 2019 when he was scintillating in the crosswinds, showing a level unheard of among the Colombian super talented climbers, a real racecraft, power intelligence. He seemed a complete talent with the strongest team behind him.

When Bernal win his tour, he beat the defending champion, and there was nobody at his level at the same age. The best riders were all in their twilight or guys like Simon Yates, carapax.

I don't understand how you could see the 2019 tour and no think that Bernal would be a big star with multiple GT wins. Maybe some of you could read something that I couldn't , maybe some of you use hindsight. I don't remember too much of what I thought at the time, I was just annoyed that Sky win le tour again and Nibali and Landa don't win anything.

Of course the 2019 vuelta showed how strong were Pogacar and Roglic, and since 2020 Bernal wasn't the same with his back problems ( although still win another grand tour). But at the moment of his tour win, Bernal seemed the complete rider to be the star of the stage races for the next few years. I mean who would be a better climber? S Yates?? Carapax??? Dumolin? Landa? Pinot?? LOL

February 2020:

Bernal's Tour win was honestly one of the least convincing ones of the decade.

Hindsight bias my ass.

 

[tobydawq]

February 2020:

Hindsight bias my ass.

It was one of the least convincing but he was still only 22 and as Ilmaestro says, had been talked up for years. Saying that his win was not very impressive does not equal saying he would never go on to win more Tours...

 

[Extinction]

Quintana did not improve much since his major breakthrough in the 2013 Tour. He never won the Tour, and by 2019 it was clear that he never would. Likewise with Andy Schleck, who was younger when he was 2nd in the Giro than Bernal was when he won the Tour. He improved, he matured as a rider, but he never won a GT and he never acquired the toolkit to dominate a stage race.

So it'd be unreasonable to expect with any certainty that Bernal would become a Tour dominator.

This is ***, because when Quintana was a "probable candidate", Froome and Sky ruled the roost, likewise Andy Shleck before Contador, who was sidelined. The difference with Bernal is that he seemed to fill a vacuum, however short-lived.

 

[Froome]

This is ***, because when Quintana was a "probabile candidate", Froome and Sky ruled the roost, likewise Andy Shleck before Contador, who was sidelined. The difference with Bernal is that he seemed to fill a vacuum, however short-lived.

Cycling sometimes is a bit of being in the right place, at the right time. Quintana was always more talented than Bernal, always did better perfomances than him, but never won the Tour. Bernal won one Tour.

 

[Netserk]

It was one of the least convincing but he was still only 22 and as Ilmaestro says, had been talked up for years. Saying that his win was not very impressive does not equal saying he would never go on to win more Tours...

The contested claim is not that he was sure to be a one-time winner, but the opposite: That he looked like the next Tour dominator.

This is all so true. Bernal looked like winning 4+ TDFs as did Pogacar who still might, then Vingegaard looks as strong as any of the multiple champs but we see the sands of time shift so quickly without it appearing obvious until after it happens.

People who thought Bernal was going to win +4 Tours are crazy. One could tell it was the weakest Tour since 2008.

He was also 22.

This is an incredible Captain Hindsight comment.

It was not hindsight.

And even if he never were to have had any major injuries after his Tour win, we can now say that he likely wouldn't have won the Tour again.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I definitely rated Bernal very highly regarding his future. The youngest Tour winner since dinosaurs (even if his win wasn't convincing). At that time a common notion was still that most guys peak later so definitely the room for improvement looked likely. Then I saw Vuelta 2019 and was like: OMG, this Pogacar guy is ridiculous!

 

[Cookster15]

Bernal was also lucky with Tignes stage having been cut.

Bernal was lucky with the level of competition when he won but he wasn't lucky that day. On the cut stage it was Bernal's rivals who were the lucky ones.

Had the Tignes stage not been cut Bernal’s winning margin would likely have been much bigger based upon everything we saw. Every time they rode above 2,000metres Bernal rode away from everyone. Alaphilippe had no hope - also proven on the stage to Val Thorens. Tignes finished at over 2,365m. Bernal had just made everyone look silly on Col de I’Iseran so it was virtually inevitable he would have extended his lead that day had the stage not been cut.

Sure he might have won just one tdF regardless but please don’t devalue the one he did - he was head and shoulders above everyone in 2019 and his victory well deserved.

 

[Froome]

Bernal was lucky with the level of competition when he won but he wasn't lucky that day. On the cut stage it was Bernal's rivals who were the lucky ones.

Had the Tignes stage not been cut Bernal’s winning margin would likely have been much bigger based upon everything we saw. Every time they rode above 2,000metres Bernal rode away from everyone. Alaphilippe had no hope - also proven on the stage to Val Thorens. Tignes finished at over 2,365m. Bernal had just made everyone look silly on Col de I’Iseran so it was virtually inevitable he would have extended his lead that day had the stage not been cut.

Sure he might have won just one tdF regardless but please don’t devalue the one he did - he was head and shoulders above everyone in 2019 and his victory well deserved.

I agree with the first part, but i think Thomas and others would have recovered some gap in the descent and in the final climb to Bernal. I don't think Bernal was that strong to sustain the hard pace until the end of the stage.

 

[Cookster15]

I agree with the first part, but i think Thomas and others would have recovered some gap in the descent and in the final climb to Bernal. I don't think Bernal was that strong to sustain the hard pace until the end of the stage.

Watch the video of Col de I’Iseran. Then look at what happened the following day. He was far stronger than his rivals.

 

[tobydawq]

The contested claim is not that he was sure to be a one-time winner, but the opposite: That he looked like the next Tour dominator.

What are you talking about? I know what I responded to.

 

[Netserk]

What are you talking about? I know what I responded to.

So why did you think this was relevant:

Saying that his win was not very impressive does not equal saying he would never go on to win more Tours...

When the contested claim isn't about being a one-time winner or not, it's irrelevant that the post you responded to didn't make a stronger claim than was needed.

 

[Salvarani]

I vividly remember the old Evenepoel vs Bernal vs Pogacar thread where Pogacar was getting the short end of the stick around 2020 Dauphine time

Bernals trajectory kinda tracks with Quitnana for me except I think his level was actually lower but he never had to go through Froome to win it.

Like I don't remember odds from before the races but I don't remember Bernal being the Giro favorite nor the TdF favorite going into the races (before he crashed during Giro prep), and he narrowly scraped by the Tour win and nearly all of the hype.

Bernal was hyped cmon. Ineos/Sky went out to pay to get him. He was the biggest talent in awhile. Everyone was saying "oh here we go" when they got him and Sosa. Then Sivakov as well. It was doomsday on here.

He was having a great season the year he won it. He had arrived.

I dont know what your angle is... it is just peculiar as always the stance you are taking.

 

[nightowl]

I think a big part that went into the feeling that Bernal was going to dominate the Tour for several years, despite his win not being super convincing, was the team he was on. Ineos had won 6 Tours in a row (and 8 of the last 9) with 4 different riders. They had even had 2 riders on the podium 2 years in a row.

No other team looked like they could touch them in terms of preparing for, and winning the tour (or budget, for that matter).Add to that that Bernal was considered an absurdly young winner at 22 with lots of room to get better, and it looked like Ineos’ streak of dominance wasn’t coming to an end any time soon.

 

[Salvarani]

I don't argue Bernal wasn't hyped. I argue he was always overhyped relative to the actual performances he put out.

But I don't consider it peculiar considering I was right 4 years ago

He won P-N, Tour de Suisse and the Tour. 3rd in Catalunya.

He had a good season in 2018 as well.

If anything he was living up to the hype that had surrounded him.

How are you "right"? Because he hasnt won more, since then?

Had you predicted that he would suffer severe back issues and almost died in an accident, plus knew Pog and Vinge was just around the corner, I would be quite amazed.

 

[Netserk]

He was never better than Rogla. And he would never have reached his level.

 

[Extinction]

Cycling sometimes is a bit of being in the right place, at the right time. Quintana was always more talented than Bernal, always did better perfomances than him, but never won the Tour. Bernal won one Tour.

I don't agree with this. He could fight for position all terains, despite his slim build,he was a Monster.

Cycling sometimes is a bit of being in the right place, at the right time. Quintana was always more talented than Bernal, always did better perfomances than him, but never won the Tour. Bernal won one Tour.

I don't think Quintana was/is more talented than Bernal. Brailsford called Bernal "the Messi of cycling". But then Pogacar and Vingegaard arrived and a new benchmark was established.

 

[The fridge in the blue trees]

If you need to time your peak so specifically you get dropped for 2 weeks and are completely at the mercy of your rivals aggression level, then you're not indisputably the best climber.

Like his one best performance in that Tour was putting like a minute into Kruijswijk who was letting his own domestique set the pace. Day after he got dropped again on Val Thorens by the way.

He was lucky Froome had his crash. He was lucky Thomas bottled his peak as hard as he did. He was lucky Jumbo prioritized Groenewegen over Roglic that year. And he was lucky with the Pinot freak injury. And he still won by barely 1'30 over Steven Kruijswijk.

There were like 5 reasons to question he would win the Tour 5 times, and the only reason to think he would do it was that he was super young.

Dropped for 2 weeks, at the mercy of your rivals aggression level?
He lost 9" to Thomas on la Planche des Belles Filles.
After the ITT he was 2'52" behind Alaphilippe. 1'26" behind Thomas, first of the real GC guys.
He was 5th, losing all of 8" to Pinot on the Tourmalet
He was 4th of GC guys, 5th of the stage to Foix, 18" behind Pinot and Landa
He gained 32" to Valloire. On everybody in GC. Up to second, 1'30" behind Alaphilippe
Then destroyed everybody on the Col de l'Iseran, looking to put more time in on the final climb.

Yours is a very weird reading of what happened in the first 2 weeks.. .completely at the mercy of his rivals... After stage 15 he was the third best climber in the race, having lost 33" to Pinot and 12" to Landa in the mountains.
AS for Krujiswijk, well, has it occured to anybody that Kruijswijk was a pretty good rider that could very well have won the Giro 16 if not crashing?

In hindsight, yes, unlikely that Bernal could have beaten Vingegaard and Pogacar. But a Bernal without his back problems, without his crash normally would easily end up on the podium in 20, 21, 22, 23, with a second place in 21 and 23 very possible too. But in the end he would regularly get destroyed in the TTs, while not bad, clearly not at the level of Vingegaard and Pogacar. But there's nothing to indicate that he would have been regularly dropped by those 2 in the mountains.

As for Quintana vs Bernal. Quintana was in the wrong time, had Froome against him, Bernal didn't. That doesn't make Quintana stronger than Bernal either though. 2 very strong young riders, that faded earlier than expected, although for very different reasons.

 

[Elos Anjos]

The comparisons between Bernal and Quintana, two colombian riders that even raced together in a couple of GTs illustrate what is pro cycling most impossible task, which is to draw fair comparisons about palmares (what was actually achieved and how and when) with potential palmares.

The later is what is used to compare riders but accidents (life) happens and it usually all goes down the drain. There's no easy answer, perhaps even noone to how one can compare two riders whose careers don't overlap, so I praise some of the above readings that safeguard its difficulties: assertions like "Quintana would have won a couple of TdF if not for Froome" are insightful and likewise "Bernal would have won more GTs if not for Pogi, Vingo and his accident".

They are much more nuanced than simply stating "bro Bernal would be utterly DESTROYED by Roglic".

 

[Froome]

I don't agree with this. He could fight for position all terains, despite his slim build,he was a Monster.

I don't think Quintana was/is more talented than Bernal. Brailsford called Bernal "the Messi of cycling". But then Pogacar and Vingegaard arrived and a new benchmark was established.

Prime quintana was more talented than Bernal in Grand Tours. The only difference is that Quintana had bad luck because his competition was froome. Bernal's competition was his teammate Thomas.

Quintana was a better climber, if we look at the perfomances of both.

 

[Extinction]

Prime quintana was more talented than Bernal in Grand Tours. The only difference is that Quintana had bad luck because his competition was froome. Bernal's competition was his teammate Thomas.

Quintana was a better climber, if we look at the perfomances of both.

But Bernal was 22 years-old when he won the Tour and was the new "Messi". He was a better TTer than Quintana and could fight for victory in Strade Bianche. I realize Quintana was very good, but Bernal was more complete. Bernal won the Tour and Giro, so it's arguable Quintana was the better Grand Tour rider, who won Giro and Vuelta. It's feasable that peak Bernal could go mano a mano against Vingo and Poggi, but alas back problems and the crash will likely never let us know.

 

[Froome]

But Bernal was 22 years-old when he won the Tour and was the new "Messi". He was a better TTer than Quintana and could fight for victory in Strade Bianche. I realize Quintana was very good, but Bernal was more complete. Bernal won the Tour and Giro, so it's arguable Quintana was the Better Grand Tour rider.

He was the "new messi" for his boss 😅

Quintana also appeared with 22/23 years in the Tour 2013, the difference is that he faced Froome. Bernal faced his teammate Thomas.

Quintana was always more dominant in the mountains if we compare to the dominance of Bernal.

Prime quintana in a good day was almost unbeatable in the mountains.