Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[BullsFan22]

Well there was no thread so I made one. This kid has a bright future ahead of him.

https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider/tadej-pogacar

Sealed the overall win at Tour de l'Avenir today by almost 1 and a half minutes, a dominant performance. And came 4th in Tour of Slovenia this year, but only beaten by Roglič, Uran and Mogorič. And in the final timetrial he was actually only second to Roglič. Great performance there as well.

And of course he signed for UAE for 2 years starting next year. I hope it's the right team for him, they're no exactly renowned for building up young talent. He and Roglič could be making a killer team in Lotto Jumbo.

A bright future indeed!

 

[Elos Anjos]

If you need to time your peak so specifically you get dropped for 2 weeks and are completely at the mercy of your rivals aggression level, then you're not indisputably the best climber.

Like his one best performance in that Tour was putting like a minute into Kruijswijk who was letting his own domestique set the pace. Day after he got dropped again on Val Thorens by the way.

He was lucky Froome had his crash. He was lucky Thomas bottled his peak as hard as he did. He was lucky Jumbo prioritized Groenewegen over Roglic that year. And he was lucky with the Pinot freak injury. And he still won by barely 1'30 over Steven Kruijswijk.

There were like 5 reasons to question he would win the Tour 5 times, and the only reason to think he would do it was that he was super young.

In hindsight, how can you send Roglic to the Giro when if not for a crash he would have been 3rd in the 2018 Tour?

 

[BullsFan22]

Anyway, I think getting over the Vingegård hurdle will be his toughest task. As physiologically gifted and mentally tough he is, winning the tour after winning the Giro will be very tough. And after that, he’ll need to basically rest.

I am guessing after the Giro he will only do the national championships (perhaps both the road and TT). What will he do after the tour? Probably no racing.

 

[BullsFan22]

In hindsight, how can you send Roglic to the Giro when if not for a crash he would have been 3rd in the 2018 Tour?

As great a career as Roglič has had, including his GT exploits, he’s had a lot of bad luck. Maybe now with a new team he can be more relaxed and won’t have the badly timed crashes (I mean crashes are never really timely…). He should have won all 3 GT’s if he had a bit more luck.

 

[SHAD0W93]

In hindsight, how can you send Roglic to the Giro when if not for a crash he would have been 3rd in the 2018 Tour?

Because we have the power of hindsight and he wasn’t the Roglic we’d later find out he’d turn into at the time. Jumbo and Roglic thought Giro would be better with close to double TT KMs, Crushweak looking in really good shape to threaten the rest.

Roglic targets Giro d'Italia victory in 2019 | Cyclingnews.com

Kruijswijk takes aim at Tour de France podium

www.cyclingnews.com

 

[staubsauger]

Because we have the power of hindsight and he wasn’t the Roglic we’d later find out he’d turn into at the time. Jumbo and Roglic thought Giro would be better with close to double TT KMs, Crushweak looking in really good shape to threaten the rest.

Roglic targets Giro d'Italia victory in 2019 | Cyclingnews.com

Kruijswijk takes aim at Tour de France podium

www.cyclingnews.com

Yeah, Roglic became the Roglic we know and Jumbo became the killer bees from the 2019 Vuelta a Espana onwards.

At the 2019 Roglic still looked quite vulnerable.

 

[Netserk]

Anybody who was that good at that age back then, absolutely has to be expected to win multiple tours.

Quintana did not improve much since his major breakthrough in the 2013 Tour. He never won the Tour, and by 2019 it was clear that he never would. Likewise with Andy Schleck, who was younger when he was 2nd in the Giro than Bernal was when he won the Tour. He improved, he matured as a rider, but he never won a GT and he never acquired the toolkit to dominate a stage race.

So it'd be unreasonable to expect with any certainty that Bernal would become a Tour dominator.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Forgive me for no speaking on Pogacar but I missed this discussion and now want to give some thoughts

A lot of people really forgetting how much hype there was about Bernal in 2016-19. Nowadays we are used to super young riders dominating , thanks to these super talents like remco, Pogacar, dr lie, Ajuso, Almida, Ujtedbreckes, de Torro. But in 2018 the main GT riders were froome, nibali, thomas, Dumolin, Yates, Quintana, Landa, etc. It was Bernal who paved the way for this new kind of super young, generational talent to come in and immediately go straight to the top.

Remember all the rumours of his talent and vo2 max on 2016 when he was 19 and getting placements with androni.

Remember how in his first few months he was competing for the win at Catalunya, Romandie, California against valverde, Roglic, Quintana, porte, Adam Yates.

Remember the Paris Nice win in 2019 when he was scintillating in the crosswinds, showing a level unheard of among the Colombian super talented climbers, a real racecraft, power intelligence. He seemed a complete talent with the strongest team behind him.

When Bernal win his tour, he beat the defending champion, and there was nobody at his level at the same age. The best riders were all in their twilight or guys like Simon Yates, carapax.

I don't understand how you could see the 2019 tour and no think that Bernal would be a big star with multiple GT wins. Maybe some of you could read something that I couldn't , maybe some of you use hindsight. I don't remember too much of what I thought at the time, I was just annoyed that Sky win le tour again and Nibali and Landa don't win anything.

Of course the 2019 vuelta showed how strong were Pogacar and Roglic, and since 2020 Bernal wasn't the same with his back problems ( although still win another grand tour). But at the moment of his tour win, Bernal seemed the complete rider to be the star of the stage races for the next few years. I mean who would be a better climber? S Yates?? Carapax??? Dumolin? Landa? Pinot?? LOL

 

[SHAD0W93]

Forgive me for no speaking on Pogacar but I missed this discussion and now want to give some thoughts

A lot of people really forgetting how much hype there was about Bernal in 2016-19. Nowadays we are used to super young riders dominating , thanks to these super talents like remco, Pogacar, dr lie, Ajuso, Almida, Ujtedbreckes, de Torro. But in 2018 the main GT riders were froome, nibali, thomas, Dumolin, Yates, Quintana, Landa, etc. It was Bernal who paved the way for this new kind of super young, generational talent to come in and immediately go straight to the top.

Remember all the rumours of his talent and vo2 max on 2016 when he was 19 and getting placements with androni.

Remember how in his first few months he was competing for the win at Catalunya, Romandie, California against valverde, Roglic, Quintana, porte, Adam Yates.

Remember the Paris Nice win in 2019 when he was scintillating in the crosswinds, showing a level unheard of among the Colombian super talented climbers, a real racecraft, power intelligence. He seemed a complete talent with the strongest team behind him.

When Bernal win his tour, he beat the defending champion, and there was nobody at his level at the same age. The best riders were all in their twilight or guys like Simon Yates, carapax.

I don't understand how you could see the 2019 tour and no think that Bernal would be a big star with multiple GT wins. Maybe some of you could read something that I couldn't , maybe some of you use hindsight. I don't remember too much of what I thought at the time, I was just annoyed that Sky win le tour again and Nibali and Landa don't win anything.

Of course the 2019 vuelta showed how strong were Pogacar and Roglic, and since 2020 Bernal wasn't the same with his back problems ( although still win another grand tour). But at the moment of his tour win, Bernal seemed the complete rider to be the star of the stage races for the next few years. I mean who would be a better climber? S Yates?? Carapax??? Dumolin? Landa? Pinot?? LOL

And later won the Giro with a bad back and was a swap with Adam away from being third in a Vuelta double with worsening back issues. He was very solid and the injuries have derailed him by a lot.

 

[staubsauger]

Quintana did not improve much since his major breakthrough in the 2013 Tour. He never won the Tour, and by 2019 it was clear that he never would. Likewise with Andy Schleck, who was younger when he was 2nd in the Giro than Bernal was when he won the Tour. He improved, he matured as a rider, but he never won a GT and he never acquired the toolkit to dominate a stage race.

So it'd be unreasonable to expect with any certainty that Bernal would become a Tour dominator.

It also has to do with choices.

If Andy Schleck immediately decides to race the 2011 Giro d'Italia and Contador in contrary then doesn't attempt the double, Schleck wins a grand tour instead of being awarded one later on.

Quintana did make those choices. Not just to ride the 2014 Giro d'Italia which in hindsight was a controversial decision the way that year's Tour played out. But especially to peak for the Vuelta a Espana in 2016,rather than the Tour de France. Which cost him and 2nd place in France, but earned him a big win in Spain!

 

[Salvarani]

Forgive me for no speaking on Pogacar but I missed this discussion and now want to give some thoughts

A lot of people really forgetting how much hype there was about Bernal in 2016-19. Nowadays we are used to super young riders dominating , thanks to these super talents like remco, Pogacar, dr lie, Ajuso, Almida, Ujtedbreckes, de Torro. But in 2018 the main GT riders were froome, nibali, thomas, Dumolin, Yates, Quintana, Landa, etc. It was Bernal who paved the way for this new kind of super young, generational talent to come in and immediately go straight to the top.

Remember all the rumours of his talent and vo2 max on 2016 when he was 19 and getting placements with androni.

Remember how in his first few months he was competing for the win at Catalunya, Romandie, California against valverde, Roglic, Quintana, porte, Adam Yates.

Remember the Paris Nice win in 2019 when he was scintillating in the crosswinds, showing a level unheard of among the Colombian super talented climbers, a real racecraft, power intelligence. He seemed a complete talent with the strongest team behind him.

When Bernal win his tour, he beat the defending champion, and there was nobody at his level at the same age. The best riders were all in their twilight or guys like Simon Yates, carapax.

I don't understand how you could see the 2019 tour and no think that Bernal would be a big star with multiple GT wins. Maybe some of you could read something that I couldn't , maybe some of you use hindsight. I don't remember too much of what I thought at the time, I was just annoyed that Sky win le tour again and Nibali and Landa don't win anything.

Of course the 2019 vuelta showed how strong were Pogacar and Roglic, and since 2020 Bernal wasn't the same with his back problems ( although still win another grand tour). But at the moment of his tour win, Bernal seemed the complete rider to be the star of the stage races for the next few years. I mean who would be a better climber? S Yates?? Carapax??? Dumolin? Landa? Pinot?? LOL

Great post.

 

[Netserk]

Forgive me for no speaking on Pogacar but I missed this discussion and now want to give some thoughts

A lot of people really forgetting how much hype there was about Bernal in 2016-19. Nowadays we are used to super young riders dominating , thanks to these super talents like remco, Pogacar, dr lie, Ajuso, Almida, Ujtedbreckes, de Torro. But in 2018 the main GT riders were froome, nibali, thomas, Dumolin, Yates, Quintana, Landa, etc. It was Bernal who paved the way for this new kind of super young, generational talent to come in and immediately go straight to the top.

Remember all the rumours of his talent and vo2 max on 2016 when he was 19 and getting placements with androni.

Remember how in his first few months he was competing for the win at Catalunya, Romandie, California against valverde, Roglic, Quintana, porte, Adam Yates.

Remember the Paris Nice win in 2019 when he was scintillating in the crosswinds, showing a level unheard of among the Colombian super talented climbers, a real racecraft, power intelligence. He seemed a complete talent with the strongest team behind him.

When Bernal win his tour, he beat the defending champion, and there was nobody at his level at the same age. The best riders were all in their twilight or guys like Simon Yates, carapax.

I don't understand how you could see the 2019 tour and no think that Bernal would be a big star with multiple GT wins. Maybe some of you could read something that I couldn't , maybe some of you use hindsight. I don't remember too much of what I thought at the time, I was just annoyed that Sky win le tour again and Nibali and Landa don't win anything.

Of course the 2019 vuelta showed how strong were Pogacar and Roglic, and since 2020 Bernal wasn't the same with his back problems ( although still win another grand tour). But at the moment of his tour win, Bernal seemed the complete rider to be the star of the stage races for the next few years. I mean who would be a better climber? S Yates?? Carapax??? Dumolin? Landa? Pinot?? LOL

February 2020:

Bernal's Tour win was honestly one of the least convincing ones of the decade.

Hindsight bias my ass.

 

[tobydawq]

February 2020:

Hindsight bias my ass.

It was one of the least convincing but he was still only 22 and as Ilmaestro says, had been talked up for years. Saying that his win was not very impressive does not equal saying he would never go on to win more Tours...

 

[Extinction]

Quintana did not improve much since his major breakthrough in the 2013 Tour. He never won the Tour, and by 2019 it was clear that he never would. Likewise with Andy Schleck, who was younger when he was 2nd in the Giro than Bernal was when he won the Tour. He improved, he matured as a rider, but he never won a GT and he never acquired the toolkit to dominate a stage race.

So it'd be unreasonable to expect with any certainty that Bernal would become a Tour dominator.

This is ***, because when Quintana was a "probable candidate", Froome and Sky ruled the roost, likewise Andy Shleck before Contador, who was sidelined. The difference with Bernal is that he seemed to fill a vacuum, however short-lived.

 

[Froome]

This is ***, because when Quintana was a "probabile candidate", Froome and Sky ruled the roost, likewise Andy Shleck before Contador, who was sidelined. The difference with Bernal is that he seemed to fill a vacuum, however short-lived.

Cycling sometimes is a bit of being in the right place, at the right time. Quintana was always more talented than Bernal, always did better perfomances than him, but never won the Tour. Bernal won one Tour.

 

[Netserk]

It was one of the least convincing but he was still only 22 and as Ilmaestro says, had been talked up for years. Saying that his win was not very impressive does not equal saying he would never go on to win more Tours...

The contested claim is not that he was sure to be a one-time winner, but the opposite: That he looked like the next Tour dominator.

This is all so true. Bernal looked like winning 4+ TDFs as did Pogacar who still might, then Vingegaard looks as strong as any of the multiple champs but we see the sands of time shift so quickly without it appearing obvious until after it happens.

People who thought Bernal was going to win +4 Tours are crazy. One could tell it was the weakest Tour since 2008.

He was also 22.

This is an incredible Captain Hindsight comment.

It was not hindsight.

And even if he never were to have had any major injuries after his Tour win, we can now say that he likely wouldn't have won the Tour again.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I definitely rated Bernal very highly regarding his future. The youngest Tour winner since dinosaurs (even if his win wasn't convincing). At that time a common notion was still that most guys peak later so definitely the room for improvement looked likely. Then I saw Vuelta 2019 and was like: OMG, this Pogacar guy is ridiculous!

 

[Cookster15]

Bernal was also lucky with Tignes stage having been cut.

Bernal was lucky with the level of competition when he won but he wasn't lucky that day. On the cut stage it was Bernal's rivals who were the lucky ones.

Had the Tignes stage not been cut Bernal’s winning margin would likely have been much bigger based upon everything we saw. Every time they rode above 2,000metres Bernal rode away from everyone. Alaphilippe had no hope - also proven on the stage to Val Thorens. Tignes finished at over 2,365m. Bernal had just made everyone look silly on Col de I’Iseran so it was virtually inevitable he would have extended his lead that day had the stage not been cut.

Sure he might have won just one tdF regardless but please don’t devalue the one he did - he was head and shoulders above everyone in 2019 and his victory well deserved.

 

[Red Rick]

In hindsight, how can you send Roglic to the Giro when if not for a crash he would have been 3rd in the 2018 Tour?

Roglic demanded full leadership. And the Tour started in Belgium with a bunch sprint on day 1, and Jumbo, with a Dutch sponsor, was adamant they wanted to take yellow with Groenewegen.

 

[Red Rick]

The contested claim is not that he was sure to be a one-time winner, but the opposite: That he looked like the next Tour dominator.



It was not hindsight.

And even if he never were to have had any major injuries after his Tour win, we can now say that he likely wouldn't have won the Tour again.

I vividly remember the old Evenepoel vs Bernal vs Pogacar thread where Pogacar was getting the short end of the stick around 2020 Dauphine time

Bernals trajectory kinda tracks with Quitnana for me except I think his level was actually lower but he never had to go through Froome to win it.

Like I don't remember odds from before the races but I don't remember Bernal being the Giro favorite nor the TdF favorite going into the races (before he crashed during Giro prep), and he narrowly scraped by the Tour win and nearly all of the hype.

 

[Froome]

Bernal was lucky with the level of competition when he won but he wasn't lucky that day. On the cut stage it was Bernal's rivals who were the lucky ones.

Had the Tignes stage not been cut Bernal’s winning margin would likely have been much bigger based upon everything we saw. Every time they rode above 2,000metres Bernal rode away from everyone. Alaphilippe had no hope - also proven on the stage to Val Thorens. Tignes finished at over 2,365m. Bernal had just made everyone look silly on Col de I’Iseran so it was virtually inevitable he would have extended his lead that day had the stage not been cut.

Sure he might have won just one tdF regardless but please don’t devalue the one he did - he was head and shoulders above everyone in 2019 and his victory well deserved.

I agree with the first part, but i think Thomas and others would have recovered some gap in the descent and in the final climb to Bernal. I don't think Bernal was that strong to sustain the hard pace until the end of the stage.

 

[Cookster15]

I agree with the first part, but i think Thomas and others would have recovered some gap in the descent and in the final climb to Bernal. I don't think Bernal was that strong to sustain the hard pace until the end of the stage.

Watch the video of Col de I’Iseran. Then look at what happened the following day. He was far stronger than his rivals.

 

[tobydawq]

The contested claim is not that he was sure to be a one-time winner, but the opposite: That he looked like the next Tour dominator.

What are you talking about? I know what I responded to.

 

[Netserk]

What are you talking about? I know what I responded to.

So why did you think this was relevant:

Saying that his win was not very impressive does not equal saying he would never go on to win more Tours...

When the contested claim isn't about being a one-time winner or not, it's irrelevant that the post you responded to didn't make a stronger claim than was needed.

 

[Salvarani]

I vividly remember the old Evenepoel vs Bernal vs Pogacar thread where Pogacar was getting the short end of the stick around 2020 Dauphine time

Bernals trajectory kinda tracks with Quitnana for me except I think his level was actually lower but he never had to go through Froome to win it.

Like I don't remember odds from before the races but I don't remember Bernal being the Giro favorite nor the TdF favorite going into the races (before he crashed during Giro prep), and he narrowly scraped by the Tour win and nearly all of the hype.

Bernal was hyped cmon. Ineos/Sky went out to pay to get him. He was the biggest talent in awhile. Everyone was saying "oh here we go" when they got him and Sosa. Then Sivakov as well. It was doomsday on here.

He was having a great season the year he won it. He had arrived.

I dont know what your angle is... it is just peculiar as always the stance you are taking.