Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[sam6]

A crazy tactic would be allowing anyone not named Vingo up the road when visma won’t close it down. You have to be willing to lose everything to defeat strength.

Hmm I'm not actually sure if this would help because even if Visma burn through all their domestiques chasing and then what? I guess then Yates/Almeida/Ayuso attacks one after the other and force Vingo to chase directly? Probably someone else would chase to ruin it. I think the problem is that you need to get Vingo to do the work directly in order to tire him out, as otherwise then it will be a tough race and Pogi and Vingo will have done similar work and likely Vingo will be stronger. And super hard to isolate him directly when he has Sepp Kuss. I just don't think that Pogi's teammates are big enough threats to Vingo to scare him. We saw what happened with Giro winner Jai Hindley last year and then he got dropped the next day super early and it basically came to nothing, and he was arguably the third strongest at that point in the race

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Hmm I'm not actually sure if this would help because even if Visma burn through all their domestiques chasing and then what? I guess then Yates/Almeida/Ayuso attacks one after the other and force Vingo to chase directly? Probably someone else would chase to ruin it. I think the problem is that you need to get Vingo to do the work directly in order to tire him out, as otherwise then it will be a tough race and Pogi and Vingo will have done similar work and likely Vingo will be stronger. And super hard to isolate him directly when he has Sepp Kuss. I just don't think that Pogi's teammates are big enough threats to Vingo to scare him. We saw what happened with Giro winner Jai Hindley last year and then he got dropped the next day super early and it basically came to nothing, and he was arguably the third strongest at that point in the race

Crazy attacks by Pogacar and Evenepoel, which will tire out Vingo. They will be suicidal but Roglic will capitalize on that. There's some small chance of such a scenario.

 

[Froome]

Does anyone else think Pogi riding the Giro might be better for his Tour chances than riding so many classics? If he was gaining weight to target Flanders then this isn't great prep for the Tour. At least riding the Giro he is focusing on stage racing for the whole winter. That and Kuss rode 3 grand tours and got stronger through them, no reason Pogi can't do similar. I think that extra racing could be good for his Tour chances

Pogacar will be cooked in the last week of the Tour 2024.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Pogacar will be cooked in the last week of the Tour 2024.

Yes, the Tour is backloaded and it's likely that after a strong first part of the Tour (prolonging form peak) he will collapse at the end.
I'm not sure if the opposite scenario is possible: reseting and trying to build the second form peak for the 3rd week of the Tour (plus maybe peaking a bit earlier in the Giro). Maybe that's what they will try to do. He would be more vulnerable in the first two weeks then.
I'm rather ruling out "no peak for the Giro" strategy. Hard to imagine Teddy being off form and overweight then.

 

[KZD]

Yes, the Tour is backloaded and it's likely that after a strong first part of the Tour (prolonging form peak) he will collapse at the end.
I'm not sure if the opposite scenario is possible: reseting and trying to build the second form peak for the 3rd week of the Tour (plus maybe peaking a bit earlier in the Giro). Maybe that's what they will try to do. He would be more vulnerable in the first two weeks then.
I'm rather ruling out "no peak for the Giro" strategy. Hard to imagine Teddy being off form and overweight then.

I think that 3rd week peak strategy is what they will try to do plus it would make sense given that the Olympics come right after the Tour, even though Pogačar himself said that is not a big target when compared to the Giro, Tour and Worlds.

 

[scribers]

Hmm I'm not actually sure if this would help because even if Visma burn through all their domestiques chasing and then what? I guess then Yates/Almeida/Ayuso attacks one after the other and force Vingo to chase directly? Probably someone else would chase to ruin it. I think the problem is that you need to get Vingo to do the work directly in order to tire him out, as otherwise then it will be a tough race and Pogi and Vingo will have done similar work and likely Vingo will be stronger. And super hard to isolate him directly when he has Sepp Kuss. I just don't think that Pogi's teammates are big enough threats to Vingo to scare him. We saw what happened with Giro winner Jai Hindley last year and then he got dropped the next day super early and it basically came to nothing, and he was arguably the third strongest at that point in the race

The jumbo strategy was burning watts across each day and three weeks. Bruyneel calls it money ball of cycling. Each rider of the teams has a specific assignment relating to wearing down the other teams riders and then leaders across three weeks. After postal and sky you would think this is a given. But somehow jumbo has placed their cards here in a next level way to beat pog and it’s worked the last two years.
Of course the real prize is breaking Vingo and how to do that when he’s capable of alien July time trial and winning by 7 minutes. So we know the other teams cannot surmount the money ball strategy on their own team merits until the can. Until then maybe the idea is to break visma’s key assistants with a different strategy. Isolate this specimen not by numbers of support but by a garish race lead by some other rider. Kuss broke remco at the vuelta like this. I’m convinced of this. It didn’t take as much as it will for Vingo but it can be done. Or at least you aren’t beating him conventionally. And maybe it is impossible no matter what as Vingo has a vo2 max of 133

 

[Elos Anjos]

Giving that Pogacar is a million dollar asset surrounded by the best sport scientists that oil money can buy and they are confident regarding the double approach I think I'll rather put my money in the mumblings of obscure forum users. I mean, it's as safe as trusting astrology to find out a career move or the person you want to spend your life with.

 

[scribers]

Giving that Pogacar is a million dollar asset surrounded by the best sport scientists that oil money can buy and they are confident regarding the double approach I think I'll rather put my money in the mumblings of obscure forum users. I mean, it's as safe as trusting astrology to find out a career move or the person you want to spend your life with.

Vingo has had much bigger July scientists the last two years. I’m happy with pogis one day race scientists during that time

 

[Krzysztof_O]

It's 2024 dudes, I have no idea how people still say with absolute certainty that Pog will collapse in the 3rd week of the Tour cause he's doing the Giro. We haven't seen a serious attempt at the double since 2018 and lesser riders than him did very well despite a crazy Giro.

Pogacar was gassed after every Tour attempt so far even though he expressed the will to do the Vuelta the last couple of seasons. If anything, he still hasn't proven he can do two consecutive GTs at a very high level. I suppose his early season peak (in March or April) made it more difficult to do the Vuelta but we don't know if this March will be much different form-wise. Maybe they will change early season approach.

 

[Elos Anjos]

Vingo has had much bigger July scientists the last two years. I’m happy with pogis one day race scientists during that time

Of course. But the best lab for sport science is actual races. So there was no way to know what would happen with Pogi's botched baseline preparation due to the LBL crash. You can try some approach and stick to it if it works or try other approaches in order to get it right. And a GT before the Tour is also part of that approach.

Either way, making predictions without any arguments is just a waste of time for readers. It speaks volumes about the narrow-mindedness of some users though.

 

[Froome]

Pogacar was gassed after every Tour attempt so far even though he expressed the will to do the Vuelta the last couple of seasons. If anything, he still hasn't proven he can do two consecutive GTs at a very high level. I suppose his early season peak (in March or April) made it more difficult to do the Vuelta but we don't know if this March will be much different form-wise. Maybe they will change early season approach.

The Giro is always tough and leave marks on every rider, including Pogacar. The Giro is never the best preparation for the Tour, it's not the best approach for the Tour, and certainly the "scientists" of Visma, Bora and quick step know that.
Then, the final week of the Tour is brutal, and the way Visma will ride again during all the Tour, full gas every day, could be again too much for pogacar.

 

[scribers]

With good reason we’ve come to accept single peak July target for the most talented gt riders as a tested recipe for success and lazy punditry. 25 years now it’s almost the only way to win it. You have to dream of ways to break this certain spell.

Myself it would suck to see pogacar burn a whole season with this singular July approach just to see if it works. I prefer to see him try different approaches and maybe prevail in July. At the very least Vingo’s ability to stay on the bike and healthy is a calculation too. All pressure is on Vingo if pogi is playing in other arenas

 

[Extinction]

What crazy tactics? I think crazy tactics (except on the gravel stage) are a bad idea with Pog tbh. His strength is his explosiveness and he should rely on that. Leave the long range attacks to Vingegaard and just stay with him and try to get bonus seconds + few seconds gaps in last few kms. Then try and win big in the gravel and hope he doesn't have a bad day like he has the previous tours

But the thing is Pogi's explosiveness I posit is a hindrance before Vingo's diesel engine in the long haul of the Tour. Last year Vingo said the Tour would not be won by seconds, so I only can conclude he knew Pogi would fade, as proved to be the case. Pogi wants to gain seconds here and there on his explosiveness, but then has no answer to Vingo in the third week. Pogi needs to conserve energy to have a fighting chance, which means a more controlled, less exuberant, type of rider, however, the nature of things in such an agonistic discipline seems prohibitive to selective exertions. Physiologically Vingo, it seems, has more in the tank and thus can bide his time with devastating effect.

 

[kn0s]

Didn't pogi give his take on the breakdown on la loze? It was not base condition and the way the race unfolded I didn't see much of a lack there. Think many are putting too much weight on the crash. Was it perfect prep, no, of course not.
Pogi was of course nervous about a very high calorie day, especially after getting pummeled the day before. He simply destroyed his stomach with too much food. This is his own explanation if I remember correctly.

 

[scribers]

I don’t remember any excuses. Just said he ran out of gas.

 

[Froome]

I don’t remember any excuses. Just said he ran out of gas.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1751197943829246366

View: https://twitter.com/NairoInGreen/status/1751197943829246366

 

[kn0s]

I don’t remember any excuses. Just said he ran out of gas.

The interview was "recent", can't be bothered to find it, that's why I put the disclaimer.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1751197943829246366

View: https://twitter.com/NairoInGreen/status/1751197943829246366

I run out of energy after 3000 m of elevation gain (while trekking) so Teddy is not that bad!

 

[sam6]

But the thing is Pogi's explosiveness I posit is a hindrance before Vingo's diesel engine in the long haul of the Tour. Last year Vingo said the Tour would not be won by seconds, so I only can conclude he knew Pogi would fade, as proved to be the case. Pogi wants to gain seconds here and there on his explosiveness, but then has no answer to Vingo in the third week. Pogi needs to conserve energy to have a fighting chance, which means a more controlled, less exuberant, type of rider, however, the nature of things in such an agonistic discipline seems prohibitive to selective exertions. Physiologically Vingo, it seems, has more in the tank and thus can bide his time with devastating effect.

I don't mean him trying to gain 3 seconds at every possible opportunity. What I mean is that Pogi just needs to not get dropped by Vingo and then he wins the Tour

I think a good example of this is Roglic vs Carapaz in the 2020 Vuelta. Roglic won on bonus seconds. He did get dropped a few times and also dropped Carapaz a few times, but it was his explosivity that won him the Vuelta. Carapaz was the better pure climber. Pogi should do the same. Vingo is still using up lots of energy trying to stay with him on these stages. Just Pogi needs to stop these 40km to go attacks. Leave that to Vingo and Evenepoel or in races where the Vans are his main rivals. Hopefully Pogi gaining time on the gravel stage + bonus seconds will mean he can afford to be dropped once on big mountains stage and still win the Tour but he needs to avoid that huge loss. But racing like Roglic did that year is his best bet I think

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Just Pogi needs to stop these 40km to go attacks.

I don‘t remember many 40 km to go attacks by Pogi in stage races, it‘s not like he has some addiction to them.

 

[Froome]

I don't mean him trying to gain 3 seconds at every possible opportunity. What I mean is that Pogi just needs to not get dropped by Vingo and then he wins the Tour

I think a good example of this is Roglic vs Carapaz in the 2020 Vuelta. Roglic won on bonus seconds. He did get dropped a few times and also dropped Carapaz a few times, but it was his explosivity that won him the Vuelta. Carapaz was the better pure climber. Pogi should do the same. Vingo is still using up lots of energy trying to stay with him on these stages. Just Pogi needs to stop these 40km to go attacks. Leave that to Vingo and Evenepoel or in races where the Vans are his main rivals. Hopefully Pogi gaining time on the gravel stage + bonus seconds will mean he can afford to be dropped once on big mountains stage and still win the Tour but he needs to avoid that huge loss. But racing like Roglic did that year is his best bet I think

Ullrich also just needed to not get dropped by armstrong to win the Tour.

Schleck also just needed to not get dropped by contador to win the tour.

Quintana also just needed to not get dropped by froome.

We can also say that vingegaard just needs to no get dropped by pogacar and then he wins the Tour in the TT.

"Just need to no get dropped", it's easy talking, not that easy in reality/race....you need at least as much better legs than your opponent to not get dropped.

 

[Extinction]

I don't mean him trying to gain 3 seconds at every possible opportunity. What I mean is that Pogi just needs to not get dropped by Vingo and then he wins the Tour

I think a good example of this is Roglic vs Carapaz in the 2020 Vuelta. Roglic won on bonus seconds. He did get dropped a few times and also dropped Carapaz a few times, but it was his explosivity that won him the Vuelta. Carapaz was the better pure climber. Pogi should do the same. Vingo is still using up lots of energy trying to stay with him on these stages. Just Pogi needs to stop these 40km to go attacks. Leave that to Vingo and Evenepoel or in races where the Vans are his main rivals. Hopefully Pogi gaining time on the gravel stage + bonus seconds will mean he can afford to be dropped once on big mountains stage and still win the Tour but he needs to avoid that huge loss. But racing like Roglic did that year is his best bet I think

The Vuelta often has climbs and style of being raced more suited to an explosivity combatant, the Tour, in theory, to a resistance one. Carapaz is not Vingegaard, for which Pog won't be able to keep him within striking reach, like Roglic did the Equadorian, to then mountain sprint over the Dane to take the GC. What Vingegaard can count on is to gain big time late in the game through attrition. My original point was that the very explosiveness of Pog puts a limit, as it surely does with any rider, on his ability to cope with one who can wear him down by generating more watts over the long haul like Vingo. I'm talking about diferences in physiological characteristics and capacities. So while Pog can drop Vingo for a handful of seconds multiple times, Jonas can eventually drop Tadej by minutes. And it doesn't really matter if Pog rides more conservitively or not. If Vingegaard is in top shape and doesn't have any problems or make mistakes, I really don't think Pog can beat him, or anyone for that matter. Vingo seems to have the highest VO2 max and sustained watts per kilo ratio, but I could be wrong.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Ullrich also just needed to not get dropped by armstrong to win the Tour.

Schleck also just needed to not get dropped by contador to win the tour.

Quintana also just needed to not get dropped by froome.

We can also say that vingegaard just needs to no get dropped by pogacar and then he wins the Tour in the TT.

"Just need to no get dropped", it's easy talking, not that easy in reality/race....you need at least as much better legs than your opponent to not get dropped.

Yeah, that ITT at the end of the Tour. Even if they are evenly matched till that point then Vingo's recovery capacity in the 3rd week can be enough to dispatch his rivals. Last years ITT was an absolute demolition even though they were evenly matched in the previous weeks. Pog winning the Tour by sticking to Vingo's wheel may have been a valid point in the previous Tours but not anymore.

I really don't think Pog can beat him, or anyone for that matter. Vingo seems to have the highest VO2 max and sustained watts per kilo ratio, but I could be wrong.

I'm not sure. I think in terms of top climbing speed at anaerobic threshold or above (i.e. 30 minutes or shorter efforts closer to VO2max) Pog more or less matches Vingo (as climbs at last years Tour showed). Pog has big bazooka wattage. It's recovery (esp. in a 3 week race) and longer climbs (multiple climbs), which make Vingo superior. It could be his body build (very light frame), which makes him better suited for repeated long efforts day in day out (less energy expended over the course of the race).

 

[Peter von]

It does kinda sound like Pogi should consider trying the wheel sucking. See if he can get Vingegaard to either expend more energy or risk not making the race hard enough for his recovery to make the difference. Sure snack some bonus seconds if they are there, but don't plan on them.

Going off data and results from past two seasons still won't be enough, but Pogi should consider giving it a go IMO. Visma clearly want the hard race so stop giving your opponent what they want.

 

[Froome]

It does kinda sound like Pogi should consider trying the wheel sucking. See if he can get Vingegaard to either expend more energy or risk not making the race hard enough for his recovery to make the difference. Sure snack some bonus seconds if they are there, but don't plan on them.

Going off data and results from past two seasons still won't be enough, but Pogi should consider giving it a go IMO. Visma clearly want the hard race so stop giving your opponent what they want.

He already tried in the last Tour that strategy. On marie blanque he was dropped but he was on the wheel of Vingegaard trying to not get dropped, he did the same strategy on tourmalet and then he attacked in the last km and half of cambasque, he followed the wheel of Vingegaard on puy de dome and then he attacked again in the last km and half, on col du grand colombier he waited for the last km again.
Pogacar changed his way of racing against Vingegaard in the last Tour.

I'm not going to call that strategy "wheelsucking" because pogacar is not a wheelsucker, but he tried to following Vingegaard's wheel and then attack in the end.