Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Extinction]

Bernal was a good tactician, descender and similar to Quintana in many ways which is explainable largely by the Columbians' route to Europe. A few agents controlled the talent and looked for the same qualities.
Quintana had the misfortune of racing against the Sky Machine. Bernal had the benefit of having Sky ride for him. That polarity makes direct comparisons a bit tough.
Also; Brailsford only released information for tactical reasons while riders were competitive that suited their agenda. What he said usually was as revealing as a Bill Belichick post game press conference.

But in Pogi's world he tends to own up to his ups and downs with few excuses. I don't know if it was a Columbian tendency or their respective teams' policy but neither Nairo or Egan seemed comfortable in the big stage press for the few interviews I had the chance to see.

Sure, but if Bernal was farmed by Sky, it was because Brailsford, erroneously as it turned out, touted him as cycling's Messi, because their go-to man Gianni Savio said the young Columbian was their best investment. Ironically, another Italian Giuseppe Sarroni was looking towards Slovenia, just over the border, and noticed a young gem, whereupon he jumped at the occasion to sign him at UAE. Such are the vicissitudes of pro cycling. However, I still think pre-incident Bernal was the more complete rider over Quintana. Nairo could never realize the potential he displayed at his sensational first Tour. This has often, for whatever reason, been the apparent fate of Columbians going back to Lucio Herrera until, that is, Bernal finally gave the nation a Yellow Jersey.

 

[sam6]

Does anyone else think Pogi riding the Giro might be better for his Tour chances than riding so many classics? If he was gaining weight to target Flanders then this isn't great prep for the Tour. At least riding the Giro he is focusing on stage racing for the whole winter. That and Kuss rode 3 grand tours and got stronger through them, no reason Pogi can't do similar. I think that extra racing could be good for his Tour chances

 

[SHAD0W93]

Does anyone else think Pogi riding the Giro might be better for his Tour chances than riding so many classics? If he was gaining weight to target Flanders then this isn't great prep for the Tour. At least riding the Giro he is focusing on stage racing for the whole winter. That and Kuss rode 3 grand tours and got stronger through them, no reason Pogi can't do similar. I think that extra racing could be good for his Tour chances

I think it gives him an out to try some crazy tactics, especially with Adam, Ayuso, and Almeida there.

 

[sam6]

I think it gives him an out to try some crazy tactics, especially with Adam, Ayuso, and Almeida there.

What crazy tactics? I think crazy tactics (except on the gravel stage) are a bad idea with Pog tbh. His strength is his explosiveness and he should rely on that. Leave the long range attacks to Vingegaard and just stay with him and try to get bonus seconds + few seconds gaps in last few kms. Then try and win big in the gravel and hope he doesn't have a bad day like he has the previous tours

 

[kingjr]

At the time of Dauphiné 2020, Pogacar had won this long list of impressive GC's: Algarve, California and Valencia. The end.
He also finished 3rd in the Vuelta behind grandpa Valverde, who was neither in his prime, nor a GT powerhouse to begin with.

At that same time, Bernal - being only a year and a half older, had won: Tour de France, Tour de Suisse, Paris Nice, California, Occitanie.
Btw, Bernal won the Tour when he was 22 and a half years old. Pogacar won his Tour the day before turning 22.

Even Evenepoel at that time, and being a year and a half younger, had won: Belgium Tour, Algarve, Burgos, Pologne and San Juan.

So Pogacar getting the short end of the stick at that time, would simply mean people applying common sense. But hindsight 20/20 rules obviously. That said, i just scrolled through that topic, and i can't really see any ridiculous claims either way in the first few pages.

I want to add Bernal's performance in 2021 Strade Bianche as an honorable mention

 

[SHAD0W93]

What crazy tactics? I think crazy tactics (except on the gravel stage) are a bad idea with Pog tbh. His strength is his explosiveness and he should rely on that. Leave the long range attacks to Vingegaard and just stay with him and try to get bonus seconds + few seconds gaps in last few kms. Then try and win big in the gravel and hope he doesn't have a bad day like he has the previous tours

Attacking from afar if it comes to it like Bernal in the Vuelta.

 

[Lequack]

He's riding with this guy in Abu Dhabi

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750612893207298443

View: https://twitter.com/JohanBruyneel/status/1750612893207298443?s=20


PS: Johan Bruyneel replied this on twitter (translated):

He is everywhere, this sacred omnipresent David! The most important thing for him is to be seen alongside important and influential figures, the Pope, President Macron, President of Korea, his friend Thomas Bach, the Golden Ball, etc… All with one specific objective: the presidency of the IOC. What many know but no one ever says: he doesn't really care about cycling. The worst part is that he will succeed in his bet. Sooner or later he will get there. In the meantime, he travels around the world carrying out his dozen official functions. A real crack! Half a million euros per year for nothing to do at
@UCI_media
. You have to do it anyway. It seems that this champion sleeps very little.Already being present at all the events to be photographed and/or receive medals (Legion of Honor, etc.) is quite a magic trick. “Honor” of what,
@DLappartient
?The most omnipresent president of cycling but in the end, what has this gentleman already accomplished? NOTHING! His personal political career above all, his presidency at the UCI is only a simple step in his political escalation towards the highest level of the IOC. (Save this tweet for later, in a few years I'll tell you: I told you so!)

 

[staubsauger]

I mean Bruyneel knows how it works. Actually he might be true. Lappartient's presidency mainly has 2 functions:

1. Being ASO's auxiliary & puppet.
2. Stepping up politically. Maybe with the IOC presidency.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Does anyone else think Pogi riding the Giro might be better for his Tour chances than riding so many classics? If he was gaining weight to target Flanders then this isn't great prep for the Tour. At least riding the Giro he is focusing on stage racing for the whole winter. That and Kuss rode 3 grand tours and got stronger through them, no reason Pogi can't do similar. I think that extra racing could be good for his Tour chances

It's likely that Pogacar will be trimmer this spring due to his goals, yes. But Giro will take its toll, even if Pogacar wins it easily by strong performances in week 1. Kuss didn't ride Giro for victory, this is a big difference. Pogacar will have to perform well during all important stages and will need to stay alert all the time (mental effort shouldn't be neglected as well). It's hard to imagine Teddy being stronger at the Tour with Giro in his legs (than without it) plus he'll face peaking Skeletor, whose only goal is the Tour.

 

[scribers]

What crazy tactics? I think crazy tactics (except on the gravel stage) are a bad idea with Pog tbh. His strength is his explosiveness and he should rely on that. Leave the long range attacks to Vingegaard and just stay with him and try to get bonus seconds + few seconds gaps in last few kms. Then try and win big in the gravel and hope he doesn't have a bad day like he has the previous tours

A crazy tactic would be allowing anyone not named Vingo up the road when visma won’t close it down. You have to be willing to lose everything to defeat strength.

 

[sam6]

A crazy tactic would be allowing anyone not named Vingo up the road when visma won’t close it down. You have to be willing to lose everything to defeat strength.

Hmm I'm not actually sure if this would help because even if Visma burn through all their domestiques chasing and then what? I guess then Yates/Almeida/Ayuso attacks one after the other and force Vingo to chase directly? Probably someone else would chase to ruin it. I think the problem is that you need to get Vingo to do the work directly in order to tire him out, as otherwise then it will be a tough race and Pogi and Vingo will have done similar work and likely Vingo will be stronger. And super hard to isolate him directly when he has Sepp Kuss. I just don't think that Pogi's teammates are big enough threats to Vingo to scare him. We saw what happened with Giro winner Jai Hindley last year and then he got dropped the next day super early and it basically came to nothing, and he was arguably the third strongest at that point in the race

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Hmm I'm not actually sure if this would help because even if Visma burn through all their domestiques chasing and then what? I guess then Yates/Almeida/Ayuso attacks one after the other and force Vingo to chase directly? Probably someone else would chase to ruin it. I think the problem is that you need to get Vingo to do the work directly in order to tire him out, as otherwise then it will be a tough race and Pogi and Vingo will have done similar work and likely Vingo will be stronger. And super hard to isolate him directly when he has Sepp Kuss. I just don't think that Pogi's teammates are big enough threats to Vingo to scare him. We saw what happened with Giro winner Jai Hindley last year and then he got dropped the next day super early and it basically came to nothing, and he was arguably the third strongest at that point in the race

Crazy attacks by Pogacar and Evenepoel, which will tire out Vingo. They will be suicidal but Roglic will capitalize on that. There's some small chance of such a scenario.

 

[Froome]

Does anyone else think Pogi riding the Giro might be better for his Tour chances than riding so many classics? If he was gaining weight to target Flanders then this isn't great prep for the Tour. At least riding the Giro he is focusing on stage racing for the whole winter. That and Kuss rode 3 grand tours and got stronger through them, no reason Pogi can't do similar. I think that extra racing could be good for his Tour chances

Pogacar will be cooked in the last week of the Tour 2024.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Pogacar will be cooked in the last week of the Tour 2024.

Yes, the Tour is backloaded and it's likely that after a strong first part of the Tour (prolonging form peak) he will collapse at the end.
I'm not sure if the opposite scenario is possible: reseting and trying to build the second form peak for the 3rd week of the Tour (plus maybe peaking a bit earlier in the Giro). Maybe that's what they will try to do. He would be more vulnerable in the first two weeks then.
I'm rather ruling out "no peak for the Giro" strategy. Hard to imagine Teddy being off form and overweight then.

 

[KZD]

Yes, the Tour is backloaded and it's likely that after a strong first part of the Tour (prolonging form peak) he will collapse at the end.
I'm not sure if the opposite scenario is possible: reseting and trying to build the second form peak for the 3rd week of the Tour (plus maybe peaking a bit earlier in the Giro). Maybe that's what they will try to do. He would be more vulnerable in the first two weeks then.
I'm rather ruling out "no peak for the Giro" strategy. Hard to imagine Teddy being off form and overweight then.

I think that 3rd week peak strategy is what they will try to do plus it would make sense given that the Olympics come right after the Tour, even though Pogačar himself said that is not a big target when compared to the Giro, Tour and Worlds.

 

[Red Rick]

It's 2024 dudes, I have no idea how people still say with absolute certainty that Pog will collapse in the 3rd week of the Tour cause he's doing the Giro. We haven't seen a serious attempt at the double since 2018 and lesser riders than him did very well despite a crazy Giro.

 

[scribers]

Hmm I'm not actually sure if this would help because even if Visma burn through all their domestiques chasing and then what? I guess then Yates/Almeida/Ayuso attacks one after the other and force Vingo to chase directly? Probably someone else would chase to ruin it. I think the problem is that you need to get Vingo to do the work directly in order to tire him out, as otherwise then it will be a tough race and Pogi and Vingo will have done similar work and likely Vingo will be stronger. And super hard to isolate him directly when he has Sepp Kuss. I just don't think that Pogi's teammates are big enough threats to Vingo to scare him. We saw what happened with Giro winner Jai Hindley last year and then he got dropped the next day super early and it basically came to nothing, and he was arguably the third strongest at that point in the race

The jumbo strategy was burning watts across each day and three weeks. Bruyneel calls it money ball of cycling. Each rider of the teams has a specific assignment relating to wearing down the other teams riders and then leaders across three weeks. After postal and sky you would think this is a given. But somehow jumbo has placed their cards here in a next level way to beat pog and it’s worked the last two years.
Of course the real prize is breaking Vingo and how to do that when he’s capable of alien July time trial and winning by 7 minutes. So we know the other teams cannot surmount the money ball strategy on their own team merits until the can. Until then maybe the idea is to break visma’s key assistants with a different strategy. Isolate this specimen not by numbers of support but by a garish race lead by some other rider. Kuss broke remco at the vuelta like this. I’m convinced of this. It didn’t take as much as it will for Vingo but it can be done. Or at least you aren’t beating him conventionally. And maybe it is impossible no matter what as Vingo has a vo2 max of 133

 

[Elos Anjos]

Giving that Pogacar is a million dollar asset surrounded by the best sport scientists that oil money can buy and they are confident regarding the double approach I think I'll rather put my money in the mumblings of obscure forum users. I mean, it's as safe as trusting astrology to find out a career move or the person you want to spend your life with.

 

[Red Rick]

The jumbo strategy was burning watts across each day and three weeks. Bruyneel calls it money ball of cycling. Each rider of the teams has a specific assignment relating to wearing down the other teams riders and then leaders across three weeks. After postal and sky you would think this is a given. But somehow jumbo has placed their cards here in a next level way to beat pog and it’s worked the last two years.
Of course the real prize is breaking Vingo and how to do that when he’s capable of alien July time trial and winning by 7 minutes. So we know the other teams cannot surmount the money ball strategy on their own team merits until the can. Until then maybe the idea is to break visma’s key assistants with a different strategy. Isolate this specimen not by numbers of support but by a garish race lead by some other rider. Kuss broke remco at the vuelta like this. I’m convinced of this. It didn’t take as much as it will for Vingo but it can be done. Or at least you aren’t beating him conventionally. And maybe it is impossible no matter what as Vingo has a vo2 max of 133

Regarding Pogacar's collapse, I really think people are overeager to connect it explain it with this reason or that reason like it's guaranteed to happen again. Given Pogacar's performance in much of the rest of the Tour, I think it's more consistent that he had a weaker patch of stages, because if the collapse was so complete he wouldn't have rebounded so quickly.

Overall I think the gap in ability between them was smaller in 2023 than in 2022 when Pogacar could never remotely distance Vingegaard and then got creamed the 2 times Vingegaard attacked on a big mountain stage.

In addition, I think the difficulty of the mountain stages is oversold, and it's not at all a route that favors Vingegaard much over Pogacar.

 

[scribers]

Giving that Pogacar is a million dollar asset surrounded by the best sport scientists that oil money can buy and they are confident regarding the double approach I think I'll rather put my money in the mumblings of obscure forum users. I mean, it's as safe as trusting astrology to find out a career move or the person you want to spend your life with.

Vingo has had much bigger July scientists the last two years. I’m happy with pogis one day race scientists during that time

 

[Krzysztof_O]

It's 2024 dudes, I have no idea how people still say with absolute certainty that Pog will collapse in the 3rd week of the Tour cause he's doing the Giro. We haven't seen a serious attempt at the double since 2018 and lesser riders than him did very well despite a crazy Giro.

Pogacar was gassed after every Tour attempt so far even though he expressed the will to do the Vuelta the last couple of seasons. If anything, he still hasn't proven he can do two consecutive GTs at a very high level. I suppose his early season peak (in March or April) made it more difficult to do the Vuelta but we don't know if this March will be much different form-wise. Maybe they will change early season approach.

 

[Elos Anjos]

Vingo has had much bigger July scientists the last two years. I’m happy with pogis one day race scientists during that time

Of course. But the best lab for sport science is actual races. So there was no way to know what would happen with Pogi's botched baseline preparation due to the LBL crash. You can try some approach and stick to it if it works or try other approaches in order to get it right. And a GT before the Tour is also part of that approach.

Either way, making predictions without any arguments is just a waste of time for readers. It speaks volumes about the narrow-mindedness of some users though.

 

[Froome]

Pogacar was gassed after every Tour attempt so far even though he expressed the will to do the Vuelta the last couple of seasons. If anything, he still hasn't proven he can do two consecutive GTs at a very high level. I suppose his early season peak (in March or April) made it more difficult to do the Vuelta but we don't know if this March will be much different form-wise. Maybe they will change early season approach.

The Giro is always tough and leave marks on every rider, including Pogacar. The Giro is never the best preparation for the Tour, it's not the best approach for the Tour, and certainly the "scientists" of Visma, Bora and quick step know that.
Then, the final week of the Tour is brutal, and the way Visma will ride again during all the Tour, full gas every day, could be again too much for pogacar.

 

[scribers]

With good reason we’ve come to accept single peak July target for the most talented gt riders as a tested recipe for success and lazy punditry. 25 years now it’s almost the only way to win it. You have to dream of ways to break this certain spell.

Myself it would suck to see pogacar burn a whole season with this singular July approach just to see if it works. I prefer to see him try different approaches and maybe prevail in July. At the very least Vingo’s ability to stay on the bike and healthy is a calculation too. All pressure is on Vingo if pogi is playing in other arenas

 

[Extinction]

What crazy tactics? I think crazy tactics (except on the gravel stage) are a bad idea with Pog tbh. His strength is his explosiveness and he should rely on that. Leave the long range attacks to Vingegaard and just stay with him and try to get bonus seconds + few seconds gaps in last few kms. Then try and win big in the gravel and hope he doesn't have a bad day like he has the previous tours

But the thing is Pogi's explosiveness I posit is a hindrance before Vingo's diesel engine in the long haul of the Tour. Last year Vingo said the Tour would not be won by seconds, so I only can conclude he knew Pogi would fade, as proved to be the case. Pogi wants to gain seconds here and there on his explosiveness, but then has no answer to Vingo in the third week. Pogi needs to conserve energy to have a fighting chance, which means a more controlled, less exuberant, type of rider, however, the nature of things in such an agonistic discipline seems prohibitive to selective exertions. Physiologically Vingo, it seems, has more in the tank and thus can bide his time with devastating effect.