Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[kn0s]

Didn't pogi give his take on the breakdown on la loze? It was not base condition and the way the race unfolded I didn't see much of a lack there. Think many are putting too much weight on the crash. Was it perfect prep, no, of course not.
Pogi was of course nervous about a very high calorie day, especially after getting pummeled the day before. He simply destroyed his stomach with too much food. This is his own explanation if I remember correctly.

 

[scribers]

I don’t remember any excuses. Just said he ran out of gas.

 

[Froome]

I don’t remember any excuses. Just said he ran out of gas.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1751197943829246366

View: https://twitter.com/NairoInGreen/status/1751197943829246366

 

[kn0s]

I don’t remember any excuses. Just said he ran out of gas.

The interview was "recent", can't be bothered to find it, that's why I put the disclaimer.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1751197943829246366

View: https://twitter.com/NairoInGreen/status/1751197943829246366

I run out of energy after 3000 m of elevation gain (while trekking) so Teddy is not that bad!

 

[sam6]

But the thing is Pogi's explosiveness I posit is a hindrance before Vingo's diesel engine in the long haul of the Tour. Last year Vingo said the Tour would not be won by seconds, so I only can conclude he knew Pogi would fade, as proved to be the case. Pogi wants to gain seconds here and there on his explosiveness, but then has no answer to Vingo in the third week. Pogi needs to conserve energy to have a fighting chance, which means a more controlled, less exuberant, type of rider, however, the nature of things in such an agonistic discipline seems prohibitive to selective exertions. Physiologically Vingo, it seems, has more in the tank and thus can bide his time with devastating effect.

I don't mean him trying to gain 3 seconds at every possible opportunity. What I mean is that Pogi just needs to not get dropped by Vingo and then he wins the Tour

I think a good example of this is Roglic vs Carapaz in the 2020 Vuelta. Roglic won on bonus seconds. He did get dropped a few times and also dropped Carapaz a few times, but it was his explosivity that won him the Vuelta. Carapaz was the better pure climber. Pogi should do the same. Vingo is still using up lots of energy trying to stay with him on these stages. Just Pogi needs to stop these 40km to go attacks. Leave that to Vingo and Evenepoel or in races where the Vans are his main rivals. Hopefully Pogi gaining time on the gravel stage + bonus seconds will mean he can afford to be dropped once on big mountains stage and still win the Tour but he needs to avoid that huge loss. But racing like Roglic did that year is his best bet I think

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Just Pogi needs to stop these 40km to go attacks.

I don‘t remember many 40 km to go attacks by Pogi in stage races, it‘s not like he has some addiction to them.

 

[Froome]

I don't mean him trying to gain 3 seconds at every possible opportunity. What I mean is that Pogi just needs to not get dropped by Vingo and then he wins the Tour

I think a good example of this is Roglic vs Carapaz in the 2020 Vuelta. Roglic won on bonus seconds. He did get dropped a few times and also dropped Carapaz a few times, but it was his explosivity that won him the Vuelta. Carapaz was the better pure climber. Pogi should do the same. Vingo is still using up lots of energy trying to stay with him on these stages. Just Pogi needs to stop these 40km to go attacks. Leave that to Vingo and Evenepoel or in races where the Vans are his main rivals. Hopefully Pogi gaining time on the gravel stage + bonus seconds will mean he can afford to be dropped once on big mountains stage and still win the Tour but he needs to avoid that huge loss. But racing like Roglic did that year is his best bet I think

Ullrich also just needed to not get dropped by armstrong to win the Tour.

Schleck also just needed to not get dropped by contador to win the tour.

Quintana also just needed to not get dropped by froome.

We can also say that vingegaard just needs to no get dropped by pogacar and then he wins the Tour in the TT.

"Just need to no get dropped", it's easy talking, not that easy in reality/race....you need at least as much better legs than your opponent to not get dropped.

 

[Extinction]

I don't mean him trying to gain 3 seconds at every possible opportunity. What I mean is that Pogi just needs to not get dropped by Vingo and then he wins the Tour

I think a good example of this is Roglic vs Carapaz in the 2020 Vuelta. Roglic won on bonus seconds. He did get dropped a few times and also dropped Carapaz a few times, but it was his explosivity that won him the Vuelta. Carapaz was the better pure climber. Pogi should do the same. Vingo is still using up lots of energy trying to stay with him on these stages. Just Pogi needs to stop these 40km to go attacks. Leave that to Vingo and Evenepoel or in races where the Vans are his main rivals. Hopefully Pogi gaining time on the gravel stage + bonus seconds will mean he can afford to be dropped once on big mountains stage and still win the Tour but he needs to avoid that huge loss. But racing like Roglic did that year is his best bet I think

The Vuelta often has climbs and style of being raced more suited to an explosivity combatant, the Tour, in theory, to a resistance one. Carapaz is not Vingegaard, for which Pog won't be able to keep him within striking reach, like Roglic did the Equadorian, to then mountain sprint over the Dane to take the GC. What Vingegaard can count on is to gain big time late in the game through attrition. My original point was that the very explosiveness of Pog puts a limit, as it surely does with any rider, on his ability to cope with one who can wear him down by generating more watts over the long haul like Vingo. I'm talking about diferences in physiological characteristics and capacities. So while Pog can drop Vingo for a handful of seconds multiple times, Jonas can eventually drop Tadej by minutes. And it doesn't really matter if Pog rides more conservitively or not. If Vingegaard is in top shape and doesn't have any problems or make mistakes, I really don't think Pog can beat him, or anyone for that matter. Vingo seems to have the highest VO2 max and sustained watts per kilo ratio, but I could be wrong.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Ullrich also just needed to not get dropped by armstrong to win the Tour.

Schleck also just needed to not get dropped by contador to win the tour.

Quintana also just needed to not get dropped by froome.

We can also say that vingegaard just needs to no get dropped by pogacar and then he wins the Tour in the TT.

"Just need to no get dropped", it's easy talking, not that easy in reality/race....you need at least as much better legs than your opponent to not get dropped.

Yeah, that ITT at the end of the Tour. Even if they are evenly matched till that point then Vingo's recovery capacity in the 3rd week can be enough to dispatch his rivals. Last years ITT was an absolute demolition even though they were evenly matched in the previous weeks. Pog winning the Tour by sticking to Vingo's wheel may have been a valid point in the previous Tours but not anymore.

I really don't think Pog can beat him, or anyone for that matter. Vingo seems to have the highest VO2 max and sustained watts per kilo ratio, but I could be wrong.

I'm not sure. I think in terms of top climbing speed at anaerobic threshold or above (i.e. 30 minutes or shorter efforts closer to VO2max) Pog more or less matches Vingo (as climbs at last years Tour showed). Pog has big bazooka wattage. It's recovery (esp. in a 3 week race) and longer climbs (multiple climbs), which make Vingo superior. It could be his body build (very light frame), which makes him better suited for repeated long efforts day in day out (less energy expended over the course of the race).

 

[Peter von]

It does kinda sound like Pogi should consider trying the wheel sucking. See if he can get Vingegaard to either expend more energy or risk not making the race hard enough for his recovery to make the difference. Sure snack some bonus seconds if they are there, but don't plan on them.

Going off data and results from past two seasons still won't be enough, but Pogi should consider giving it a go IMO. Visma clearly want the hard race so stop giving your opponent what they want.

 

[Froome]

It does kinda sound like Pogi should consider trying the wheel sucking. See if he can get Vingegaard to either expend more energy or risk not making the race hard enough for his recovery to make the difference. Sure snack some bonus seconds if they are there, but don't plan on them.

Going off data and results from past two seasons still won't be enough, but Pogi should consider giving it a go IMO. Visma clearly want the hard race so stop giving your opponent what they want.

He already tried in the last Tour that strategy. On marie blanque he was dropped but he was on the wheel of Vingegaard trying to not get dropped, he did the same strategy on tourmalet and then he attacked in the last km and half of cambasque, he followed the wheel of Vingegaard on puy de dome and then he attacked again in the last km and half, on col du grand colombier he waited for the last km again.
Pogacar changed his way of racing against Vingegaard in the last Tour.

I'm not going to call that strategy "wheelsucking" because pogacar is not a wheelsucker, but he tried to following Vingegaard's wheel and then attack in the end.

 

[Netserk]

He already tried in the last Tour that strategy. On marie blanque he was dropped but he was on the wheel of Vingegaard trying to not get dropped, he did the same strategy on tourmalet and then he attacked in the last km and half of cambasque, he followed the wheel of Vingegaard on puy de dome and then he attacked again in the last km and half, on col du grand colombier he waited for the last km again.
Pogacar changed his way of racing against Vingegaard in the last Tour.

I'm not going to call that strategy "wheelsucking" because pogacar is not a wheelsucker, but he tried to following Vingegaard's wheel and then attack in the end.

 

[Peter von]

He already tried in the last Tour that strategy. On marie blanque he was dropped but he was on the wheel of Vingegaard trying to not get dropped, he did the same strategy on tourmalet and then he attacked in the last km and half of cambasque, he followed the wheel of Vingegaard on puy de dome and then he attacked again in the last km and half, on col du grand colombier he waited for the last km again.
Pogacar changed his way of racing against Vingegaard in the last Tour.

I'm not going to call that strategy "wheelsucking" because pogacar is not a wheelsucker, but he tried to following Vingegaard's wheel and then attack in the end.

He still attacked, I meant really committing to that strategy even more, don't even attack, let Jonas eat wind or slow down if they are isolated, don't do anything or have your team do anything to make the race harder unless it's absolutely necessary , don't even try to bring the break back so Pogi can snack a few bonus seconds. Really put the sucker in wheelsucker.

Pogi is by no means a wheel sucker

 

[Elos Anjos]

Please stop. I cannot deal anymore with the spin "Pog is a wheelsucker". It's a so vulgar and mediocre take that I just refuse to answer or allow myself to engage it.

 

[Extinction]

I'm not sure. I think in terms of top climbing speed at anaerobic threshold or above (i.e. 30 minutes or shorter efforts closer to VO2max) Pog more or less matches Vingo (as climbs at last years Tour showed). Pog has big bazooka wattage. It's recovery (esp. in a 3 week race) and longer climbs (multiple climbs), which make Vingo superior. It could be his body build (very light frame), which makes him better suited for repeated long efforts day in day out (less energy expended over the course of the race).

In fact, this was precisely my point. In the sense that Vingo can sustain his substantial wattage over a longer period of time, through week three, whereas they are pretty evenly matched in weeks one and two. But the attrition of the third week allows Vingo to display a superior physiology. To go back to my original position, it seems to me the reason for this is that when one is endowed with great explosiveness, one loses something in resistance, the longer one is required to generate similar watts as time draws on (week three). Pog has come up short twice in a row, which is not a large enough sample size to draw definitive conclusions, however, orient trends, yes. And it seems to me, as great a cyclist as Pog is, he doesn't have a response to Vingo in the late battles of the Tour. In this sense, his explosiveness actually becomes a physiological barrier to conquering the Dane, all things being equal in a top form confrontation. It shall be interesting, therefore, to see if Pog can reclaim the throne at the biggest bike race on earth and if Vingo can duplicate or even better last year's performance.

 

[kn0s]

Please stop. I cannot deal anymore with the spin "Pog is a wheelsucker". It's a so vulgar and mediocre take that I just refuse to answer or allow myself to engage it.

Didn't they both write that it was definitely not the case?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

In fact, this was precisely my point. In the sense that Vingo can sustain his substantial wattage over a longer period of time, through week three, whereas they are pretty evenly matched in weeks one and two. But the attrition of the third week allows Vingo to display a superior physiology. To go back to my original position, it seems to me the reason for this is that when one is endowed with great explosiveness, one loses something in resistance, the longer one is required to generate similar watts as time draws on (week three). Pog has come up short twice in a row, which is not a large enough sample size to draw definitive conclusions, however, orient trends, yes. And it seems to me, as great a cyclist as Pog is, he doesn't have a response to Vingo in the late battles of the Tour. In this sense, his explosiveness actually becomes a physiological barrier to conquering the Dane, all things being equal in a top form confrontation. It shall be interesting, therefore, to see if Pog can reclaim the throne at the biggest bike race on earth and if Vingo can duplicate or even better last year's performance.

Yeah, a better developed anaerobic system (fast twitch muscles) maybe has some cost. There's a limit on efficiency of both systems combined, especially at the Tour where every kilogram counts (explosivity "weights" a bit).

 

[Extinction]

Yeah, a better developed anaerobic system (fast twitch muscles) maybe has some cost. There's a limit on efficiency of both systems combined, especially at the Tour where every kilogram counts (explosivity "weights" a bit).

Nice way of putting it and I suspect this is more or less correct. Being able to generate short turns of speed, seems to hinder one's long-duration resistance. Whether this has to do with metabolizing lactic acid effeciency, VO2 max or other factors, I wouldn't know. But mother nature seems to prohibit combining great explosivity with great resistance in a single human being. Of course, Pog is an exception. He has both traits, but even he pays the price against a Vingegaard, who may have the best aerobic capacity we've ever seen.

 

[Froome]

Yeah, a better developed anaerobic system (fast twitch muscles) maybe has some cost. There's a limit on efficiency of both systems combined, especially at the Tour where every kilogram counts (explosivity "weights" a bit).

It's impressive the fact he weighs the same as Quintana (58 kg).

 

[Didinho]

They all say you get better with a GT in the legs, so Pogi is gonna stomp the Tour.

That's what I'm hoping. I'm also a bit sceptical how it will turn out. Maybe starting the Giro with a peak and go 1 time really hard (like Froome), consolidate and follow the wheels for 2 weeks.

 

[Tim Cahill]

He absolutely needs to wheelsuck, if you're watching the TDF stages from the start he's riding around like a he's got ants in his pants from the gun, random ass attacks with 150k to go on nondescript breakaway profiles, trying to sprint at the end of stages for no reason., it's no wonder he runs out of energy, cumulative fatigue. Watching 2022 stage 11 again, what on earth does he think is happening putting in a big attack on the Galibier, someone needs to have a word, maybe they have and he hasn't listened.

That said I hope he doesn't because it's entertaining as ***.

 

[Elos Anjos]

Didn't they both write that it was definitely not the case?

When one is reminded that a whole sport is based in the marginal advantages of saving watts in the wind along a parcours, the term "wheelsucking" is as descriptive and insulting as the term "ballkicker" would be for a football player or facebeater for a boxer.

Everyone wheelsucks. It's part of race dynamics. Only naif, young and careless riders avoid it everynow and then. They usually end up dearly paying for it.

 

[scribers]

I see wheelsucker a little more narrowly. Like staying on the wheel of the nearest competitor, either in the peloton, in a selection, or heading to the finish out front with a few or in a sprint. Pog sucking Vingo’s wheel is probably the noblest use of the situation. I hope he does it too and spends no unnecessary energy

 

[Cookster15]

He absolutely needs to wheelsuck, if you're watching the TDF stages from the start he's riding around like a he's got ants in his pants from the gun, random ass attacks with 150k to go on nondescript breakaway profiles, trying to sprint at the end of stages for no reason., it's no wonder he runs out of energy, cumulative fatigue. Watching 2022 stage 11 again, what on earth does he think is happening putting in a big attack on the Galibier, someone needs to have a word, maybe they have and he hasn't listened.

That said I hope he doesn't because it's entertaining as ***.

Agree with everything you wrote, except we had our entertainment in 2022. Now I hope we see Pog race smart, like Cadel in 2011.

With the Giro in his legs Pogacar simply cannot afford to waste energy. He needs to pick when to attack and who to follow. There is only one wheel he should worry about - Vingegaard. If Roglic attacks he should let Vingegaard take the initiative. By racing conservatively, fans might get annoyed but it might also force Vingegaard to use more energy?

I wonder how much of Vingegaard's superiority in the 3rd week is because he saved more energy than Pogacar via tactics and also being better protected by a stronger team?

I am also of the view Pogacar's collapse on stage 17 was due to a lack of base related to his LBL crash and interrupted prep.

I'll admit this is me hoping rather than what is likely.