Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Peyroteo94]

There are 3 variables to assess performances:
1 - Gap to competition
2 - Conditions (road, weather)
3 - Climbing time

 

[Froome]

if u look at pogs starava he spend 4k calories in this stage like he did in tour de france stage 15 so it was pretty hard day in break i guess and 35 degres

What is starava?

 

[Peyroteo94]

Very accurate and precise. Im curious when your serious what do you think about UAE(exluding Pog, he never pushed all inn hard to tell) but you think they seem better or worse so far, Morgado, Christen woulda gotten better anyway and clearly has so forget em,

But Almeida seem to have improved quite a bit to me, yes he lost to Buitrago on that stage uphil but he rode as a domestique and a half for himself that stage dragging Buitrago plenty of km, at least going uphill in all races so far he seem stronger - admittedly the sample size is barely worth speaking of but its what we got.

UAE riders seems better this year but this is mainly to natural progress from their young riders

 

[Peyroteo94]

So now, we will have to wait until June to assess his level in the hogh mountains. Huh... at least we will have him in every important classic.

 

[hayneplane]

There are 3 variables to assess performances:
1 - Gap to competition
2 - Conditions (road, weather)
3 - Climbing time

I would add in 4 - what was required to get the desired result. This is critically important as to give an extreme example it’s very hard to imagine Pablo Torres would have pulled off such a huge performance on Finestre in the final stage of L’Avenir last year if he hadn’t needed to turn around a 4 minute deficit.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I would add in 4 - what was required to get the desired result. This is critically important as to give an extreme example it’s very hard to imagine Pablo Torres would have pulled off such a huge performance on Finestre in the final stage of L’Avenir last year if he hadn’t needed to turn around a 4 minute deficit.

Probably, Pogacar destroyed PdB record due to Visma

 

[Peyroteo94]

I think in SB he might be conservative although I doubt it haha. I think that YavorD has a point that Pogi might be thinking that he has a long season ahead of him (including July and August) so he needs to start slowly and keep ramping up his level through the races.

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He said Dauphiné, Tour and Vuelta are enough as stage races so I believe he will be in the Vuelta. There is also 2 weeks before and after SB, he will improve a lot in this period. He said he will just go to Italy and train a lot so I'm expecting big things already in SB

 

[pelotonIQ]

What is starava?

A website where athlethes, primarily cyclists and runners can upload their rides with all the numbers and data.

 

[2WpK]

I think we are comparing a February performance to our memories of his peak performances last season. He doesn't need to be peaking in February. Everything will be fine.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I think we are comparing a February performance to our memories of his peak performances last season. He doesn't need to be peaking in February. Everything will be fine.

Yup. If we compare Pogacar with his rivals, he is far ahead.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Let's keep any comparisons of riders with Armstrong for the respective threads in the Clinic forum, shall we. There was some validity to using Armstrong as an example of a rider about whom there are polarised opinions, but let's not pretend that that was the intention in the most recent (now deleted) citations

 

[Netserk]

Let's keep any comparisons of riders with Armstrong for the respective threads in the Clinic forum, shall we. There was some validity to using Armstrong as an example of a rider about whom there are polarised opinions, but let's not pretend that that was the intention in the most recent (now deleted) citations

I assume the "TikTok A*******g" moniker is then reserved for the clinic?

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I assume the "TikTok A*******g" moniker is then reserved for the clinic?

Personal opinion: really would far prefer never to see it.
Moderator position: not outside the clinic unless someone wants to persuade me (by PM, no need to clog up the thread) that it is entirely and unequivocally removed from anything to do with that.

 

[Cookster15]

this year is gonna be lance armstrong aprroach by vinge vs i wanna conquer everything like eddie,well see if pog is true monster.in 2023 he was destryoed in tour and completelly dead after wc in glasgow.he said he needed 2 months to recover.well see if under sola pog can pull it off.my prediction,easy,lmao.

In the 2023 Tour Pogacar was "destroyed" on one stage - Col de la Loze when he lost 5'45" on that day by cracking completely.

The day before Vingegaard rode what must be regarded as an outlier TT performance at Combloux - Jonas has never repeated that level before or since. Pogacar still rode a very strong TT performance even if losing 1'38". But he also emptied his reserves.

The reason why Pog lost 7 minutes that Tour was his crash and resulting broken wrist at LBL. That interruption to his training was enough to cost him on Col de la Loze - a lack of recovery. Obviously Vingegaard's recovery from his more serious injuries was miraculous and yet somehow he was able to produce his best ever watts at the Tour. But even Vingo showed some weakness in the 3rd week likely as a result of lost training volume and rushed prep. He just never completely cracked like Pogacar at Loze.

In 2024 I think we can excuse Pogacar for being "completely dead" after the WC. After all he had completed the first Giro-Tour double since Pantani 1998 and won almost everything else last season, beginning with Strade Bianche in early March. An unbelievable dominance not seen since Merckx. Nothing wrong with Pogacar's recovery in 2024. In fact better than anything Vingegaard has ever shown as Vingo never targeted, and won, all those other races in the same season.

So I'm still backing a fresh and optimally prepared Pog to beat a fresh and better prepared Vingegaard in the rematch of the century.

 

[Peyroteo94]

In the 2023 Tour Pogacar was "destroyed" on one stage - Col de la Loze when he lost 5'45" on that day by cracking completely.

The day before Vingegaard rode what must be regarded as an outlier TT performance at Combloux - Jonas has never repeated that level before or since. Pogacar still rode a very strong TT performance even if losing 1'38". But he also emptied his reserves.

The reason why Pog lost 7 minutes that Tour was his crash and resulting broken wrist at LBL. That interruption to his training was enough to cost him on Col de la Loze - a lack of recovery. Obviously Vingegaard's recovery from his more serious injuries was miraculous and yet somehow he was able to produce his best ever watts at the Tour. But even Vingo showed some weakness in the 3rd week likely as a result of lost training volume and rushed prep. He just never completely cracked like Pogacar at Loze.

In 2024 I think we can excuse Pogacar for being "completely dead" after the WC. After all he had completed the first Giro-Tour double since Pantani 1998 and won almost everything else last season, beginning with Strade Bianche in early March. An unbelievable dominance not seen since Merckx. Nothing wrong with Pogacar's recovery in 2024. In fact better than anything Vingegaard has ever shown as Vingo never targeted, and won, all those other races in the same season.

So I'm still backing a fresh and optimally prepared Pog to beat a fresh and better prepared Vingegaard in the rematch of the century.

Vingegaard had troubles in 2023 with Pogacar in the first two weeks. Pogacar never had problems with Vingegaard in 2024.
Pogacar with a suboptimal performance (IIRC he just started training outside in the last week of May) put Vingegaard on the ropes a couple of times. Something he never did in 2022 for example.

 

[Froome]

In the 2023 Tour Pogacar was "destroyed" on one stage - Col de la Loze when he lost 5'45" on that day by cracking completely.

The day before Vingegaard rode what must be regarded as an outlier TT performance at Combloux - Jonas has never repeated that level before or since. Pogacar still rode a very strong TT performance even if losing 1'38". But he also emptied his reserves.

The reason why Pog lost 7 minutes that Tour was his crash and resulting broken wrist at LBL. That interruption to his training was enough to cost him on Col de la Loze - a lack of recovery. Obviously Vingegaard's recovery from his more serious injuries was miraculous and yet somehow he was able to produce his best ever watts at the Tour. But even Vingo showed some weakness in the 3rd week likely as a result of lost training volume and rushed prep. He just never completely cracked like Pogacar at Loze.

In 2024 I think we can excuse Pogacar for being "completely dead" after the WC. After all he had completed the first Giro-Tour double since Pantani 1998 and won almost everything else last season, beginning with Strade Bianche in early March. An unbelievable dominance not seen since Merckx. Nothing wrong with Pogacar's recovery in 2024. In fact better than anything Vingegaard has ever shown as Vingo never targeted, and won, all those other races in the same season.

So I'm still backing a fresh and optimally prepared Pog to beat a fresh and better prepared Vingegaard in the rematch of the century.

"The reason why Pog lost 7 minutes that Tour was his crash and resulting broken wrist at LBL."

Then, we can assume Vingegaard lost 6 min because of pneumotorax, broken ribs, collarbone right?

The chances for this year are good since 6 is less than 7 minutes and pneumotorax, broken ribs, collarbone, are worse injuries than a wrist. Starting in the turbo is also better than being 2 weeks in the hospital losing muscle mass, and doing the Tour with less miscle mass.

 

[Cookster15]

Then, we can assume Vingegaard lost 6 min because of pneumotorax, broken ribs, collarbone right?

Of course, I mentioned that:

Obviously Vingegaard's recovery from his more serious injuries was miraculous and yet somehow he was able to produce his best ever watts at the Tour

As for the rest of your post I very much doubt a little less muscle mass will make any significant difference to a 58kg climber like Vingegaard. Muscle mass reduces w/kg. What hurt Vingegaard was lack of recovery seen by losing about 4 minutes on stages 19 through 21. This aspect will see him closer to Pogacar this year- but still lose the Tour IMO.

 

[Rule #9 apostle]

So I'm still backing a fresh and optimally prepared Pog to beat a fresh and better prepared Vingegaard in the rematch of the cecentury.

Especially because, even if vingegaard were to improve and reach pog's climbing level from last year, he still has to ride him off his wheel. Just so much more difficult than for pog, who can take seconds everywhere (unless we still believe pog can 'crack', which i always found more of a hail mary than a foolproof masterplan even when it worked). Maybe his best chance is to smoke the time trial up to peyregourdes, but even there the climb is not that steep or long, so im not sure how much time you can realistically gain.

In any case, hope for a round 5 with optimal prep for both, we really need a credible challenger...

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Especially because, even if vingegaard were to improve and reach pog's climbing level from last year, he still has to ride him off his wheel. Just so much more difficult than for pog, who can take seconds everywhere (unless we still believe pog can 'crack', which i always found more of a hail mary than a foolproof masterplan even when it worked). Maybe his best chance is to smoke the time trial up to peyregourdes, but even there the climb is not that steep or long, so im not sure how much time you can realistically gain.

In any case, hope for a round 5 with optimal prep for both, we really need a credible challenger...

Yes, Vingo needs to be noticeably better than Pogi in terms of sustained w/kg because in explosivity department he'll lose some seconds if both are equally good on climbs. The ITT is a chance for him if both are more or less evenly matched. Other than that he'll look for his chances on big HC climbs of course.

 

[Rule #9 apostle]

Yes, Vingo needs to be noticeably better than Pogi in terms of sustained w/kg because in explosivity department he'll lose some seconds if both are equally good on climbs. The ITT is a chance for him if both are more or less evenly matched. Other than that he'll look for his chances on big HC climbs of course.

Explosivity, and also pure power. Very difficult for jonas to prevent pog taking 10 seconds over the crest of any medium climb and then expand it galibier style

 

[kn0s]

Yes, Vingo needs to be noticeably better than Pogi in terms of sustained w/kg because in explosivity department he'll lose some seconds if both are equally good on climbs. The ITT is a chance for him if both are more or less evenly matched. Other than that he'll look for his chances on big HC climbs of course.

Power is one thing, but I don't think you can underestimate the fact the Jonas is fairly close to Pogi when 100% (has been anyway) Pogi has no particular race intelligence, relying on his big genetical advantages. This is why we sometimes see him be punished when doing stupid stuff, that normally works against other riders. Not riding cleverly can trip up even the best over three weeks, when someone is close in power. The margin for error is simply much smaller.

 

[Red Rick]

Explosivity, and also pure power. Very difficult for jonas to prevent pog taking 10 seconds over the crest of any medium climb and then expand it galibier style

You don't lose 10s on explosivity if you're aerobically at the same level. The main gap last year was just threshold W/kg. That's why you'd see Vingegaard first respond to Pogacar's attack, keep the gap small, and then explode whenever he responded.

 

[James M]

Yes, Vingo needs to be noticeably better than Pogi in terms of sustained w/kg because in explosivity department he'll lose some seconds if both are equally good on climbs. The ITT is a chance for him if both are more or less evenly matched. Other than that he'll look for his chances on big HC climbs of course.

Nothing wrong with this but it also show how unlikely it is in reality, considering hes considarably worse than Pogi in high mountains now, w/kg, like considarably not a little bit which would be far better and interesting, but a gap we havent seen before in that department alone..In reality everything else is self-explanatory.

And while he was closer before looking at the past will always give you the wrong asnwer here, were in 2025 and im sure you have someone wanne believe Van Baarle can challenge Pog in RVV cause he did that one year, its barely relevant looking behind when the goal post has been moved this far.

In any case, hope for a round 5 with optimal prep for both, we really need a credible challenger...

This part I agree everyone else im sure too but untill he atleast has reached a level he has never been close to before uphill its just hope to me, but we can all hope indeed.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Pogacar won the 2024 Tour on w/kg so Vingegaard needs to improve a lot if he wants to win the Tour.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Especially because, even if vingegaard were to improve and reach pog's climbing level from last year, he still has to ride him off his wheel. Just so much more difficult than for pog, who can take seconds everywhere (unless we still believe pog can 'crack', which i always found more of a hail mary than a foolproof masterplan even when it worked). Maybe his best chance is to smoke the time trial up to peyregourdes, but even there the climb is not that steep or long, so im not sure how much time you can realistically gain.

In any case, hope for a round 5 with optimal prep for both, we really need a credible challenger...

Vingegaard's best chance to beat Pogacar is by doing better TTs than him