Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[starlord]

Or Landa for that matter

 

[yaco]

The logical progression if he holds his form is the Vuelta in 2020 - A year older and stronger should make for a better performance - The Giro and the TDF can wait.

 

[geisterhome]

Wondering how the peak and decline of those riders who are good at very young age will look like.
I'm guessing that somebody like Pogacar who is that good with 20 will reach his peak already with 22 or 23, thus his age 22 season could be an average riders age 29 season or so. I'm pretty sure he won't keep improving every year till let's say 27. Also, I somehow don't believe those guys will be able to keep that level till they are 33/34 like the average rider might be able to.
My very vague prediction is that his prime years will be from 22 to 26,27 maybe 28, after that he might still be good, maybe smth like a Quintana is today or so, but I can't imagine that somebody will be a top contender for a GT victory with 21 and 10 years later still.
Might work out completely different, interesting stuff...

 

[SafeBet]

Wondering how the peak and decline of those riders who are good at very young age will look like.
I'm guessing that somebody like Pogacar who is that good with 20 will reach his peak already with 22 or 23, thus his age 22 season could be an average riders age 29 season or so. I'm pretty sure he won't keep improving every year till let's say 27. Also, I somehow don't believe those guys will be able to keep that level till they are 33/34 like the average rider might be able to.
My very vague prediction is that his prime years will be from 22 to 26,27 maybe 28, after that he might still be good, maybe smth like a Quintana is today or so, but I can't imagine that somebody will be a top contender for a GT victory with 21 and 10 years later still.
Might work out completely different, interesting stuff...

While I agree the early boomers might reach their peak at younger age than the average rider, I don't think they will necessarily be on the decline earlier. Valverde was a contender for the Vuelta at 23 and he's currently fighting for a podium, 16 years later.

 

[Red Rick]

While I agree the early boomers might reach their peak at younger age than the average rider, I don't think they will necessarily be on the decline earlier. Valverde was a contender for the Vuelta at 23 and he's currently fighting for a podium, 16 years later.

Treating Valverde like the rule rather than a huge exception.

 

[glassmoon]

He will be more supported next year by UAE than Dan Martin

Or Landa for that matter

...and rightfully so.

 

[Red Rick]

Wondering how the peak and decline of those riders who are good at very young age will look like.
I'm guessing that somebody like Pogacar who is that good with 20 will reach his peak already with 22 or 23, thus his age 22 season could be an average riders age 29 season or so. I'm pretty sure he won't keep improving every year till let's say 27. Also, I somehow don't believe those guys will be able to keep that level till they are 33/34 like the average rider might be able to.
My very vague prediction is that his prime years will be from 22 to 26,27 maybe 28, after that he might still be good, maybe smth like a Quintana is today or so, but I can't imagine that somebody will be a top contender for a GT victory with 21 and 10 years later still.
Might work out completely different, interesting stuff...

I think the years between first and last GT podium is a nice idea. Contador had 8 years, Nibali is up to 9 now. Valverde had 13, but he's a big outlier.

 

[SafeBet]

Treating Valverde like the rule rather than a huge exception.

Fair.
But do we have a big enough sample of riders podiuming a GT in their early 20s to make assumptions about the length of their peak? Schleck had a ton of issues, would you say his early decline was directly connected to him being an early bloomer?

It is somehow natural that a rider podiuming his first GT at 25-26 years of age won't prolong his peak for more than 10-11 years.

 

[RunningRouleur]

It's partly genetic but mostly depends on training intensity and volume at a young age. If Pogacar is training as a 20-year-old should be (which is less than a 25-year-old) and achieving these results, he will have a terrifying future, assuming he avoids bad luck (crashes, illness, etc.) But if he's already ripping his training sessions like a late-20s Grand Tour champion, he has little room to improve and will peak early.

 

[Red Rick]

Fair.
But do we have a big enough sample of riders podiuming a GT in their early 20s to make assumptions about the length of their peak? Schleck had a ton of issues, would you say his early decline was directly connected to him being an early bloomer?

It is somehow natural that a rider podiuming his first GT at 25-26 years of age won't prolong his peak for more than 10-11 years.

I don't think we know a lot to how long they can be competitive. It's more important how great they are than how young they peak, cause if they're truly amazing they can be competitive in GTs just before hitting peak, while missing peaks, and after a bit of decline, which aids tremendously in consistency and longevity.

And while you can't say very much in terms of when they'll start declining, I do think we've seen enough to know these super young guys don't make as big a step in their mid 20s as the average bloomers do. Then there's a few things in regards to physical make up and professionalisation. Riders that train very professionally early can kinda peak early. This happened to guys like Gesink, who was ofcourse also harmed by repetitive crashing.

Obviously training managment and mileage play a role, as well as Clinic history and all that stuff. I don't think racing hard every spring is generally great for longevity, so if I were a GT rider, I'd put less emphasis on races like TA and PN when I started winning GTs.

 

[Lequack]

I think he did what he had to today, following Lopez and Quintana, his biggest threats to the podium. When Valverde and Roglic went nobody really reacted and it seems Pogacar was just happy to follow Lopez.

His power numbers were really good, so Valverde and Roglic were off the charts today.

 

[JosephK]

Two stage wins and a current placing at 3 on GC with just 5 stages remaining. Amazing.

 

[tobydawq]

Second rest day. Time to pull him out. We can't have young bike riders getting tired.

 

[Lequack]

Second rest day. Time to pull him out. We can't have young bike riders getting tired.

Imagine him going full Soler on his team.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Second rest day. Time to pull him out. We can't have young bike riders getting tired.

Gotta DNF GTs until youre 23, thats obvious.

 

[tobydawq]

Gotta DNF GTs until youre 23, thats obvious.

Yeah, and keep Remco out of them until 22.

 

[Lequack]

Rest day

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

re: the early peak talk above

don't forget not every early peak rider declines at later age. Valverde is an example of somebody who's been super good from very young to very old.
A lot depends on motivation..

 

[geisterhome]

I think the years between first and last GT podium is a nice idea. Contador had 8 years, Nibali is up to 9 now. Valverde had 13, but he's a big outlier.

Yea I mean people are seeing those guys coming up now being 20, 21 years old (Pogacar, Evenepol, Bernal,...) and they are amazing already and you might expect close to 15 years of dominance from them. Just because your average pro cyclist can be very good into his mid-thirties. Time might prove me wrong, but I think for those early bloomers different rules could apply.

Like you are saying, the years between first and last GT podium might be very similar for them compared to guys with a later peak.

If e.g. Pogacar would be 27 now, having a breakout year similar to what he having right now with a first GT podium while not achieving much before, I wouldn't necessarily expect a very different career arch than I do now that he is actually just 20.
If your peak starts with 27 you could very well be great for the next 8 years, about what I predict a Pogacar could do in reality, having his peak from 20 to 28 and then starting to decline.

Of course, there will be always outliers and he might be one, we don't have a big sample size yet.

 

[Red Rick]

re: the early peak talk above

don't forget not every early peak rider declines at later age. Valverde is an example of somebody who's been super good from very young to very old.
A lot depends on motivation..

Valverde doesn't peak.

Valverde is.

 

[Lequack]

Yea I mean people are seeing those guys coming up now being 20, 21 years old (Pogacar, Evenepol, Bernal,...) and they are amazing already and you might expect close to 15 years of dominance from them. Just because your average pro cyclist can be very good into his mid-thirties. Time might prove me wrong, but I think for those early bloomers different rules could apply.

Like you are saying, the years between first and last GT podium might be very similar for them compared to guys with a later peak.

If e.g. Pogacar would be 27 now, having a breakout year similar to what he having right now with a first GT podium while not achieving much before, I wouldn't necessarily expect a very different career arch than I do now that he is actually just 20.
If your peak starts with 27 you could very well be great for the next 8 years, about what I predict a Pogacar could do in reality, having his peak from 20 to 28 and then starting to decline.

Of course, there will be always outliers and he might be one, we don't have a big sample size yet.

Also to note is that just because we have some amazing young riders doesn't mean that all of the young riders will be on this level. These could just very well be the one-in-a-decade crop of youngsters now.

 

[barmaher]

Most of you guys are talking out of your arse on peaking. Nobody really knows, and I suspect variables such as motivation, (as pointed out above), injury and bad luck have as much of an impact as the inherent abilities of a rider or the program he follows.

People just love complaining.

 

[Lequack]

He's still hanging in there, although losing a place to Lopez today.

 

[LaFlorecita]

He's still hanging in there, although losing a place to Lopez today.

3 weeks still a bit too long for him maybe. He's fading.

 

[Bushman]

I don’t think it’s 18 days of racing taking its toll on him, I think his performance is mainly due to yesterday’s stage. He actually performed really well considering his youth and limited experience but it’s not unlikely that it has been harder on him than on his competitors.

He might not race with the same kind of energy on saturday as he has been for the past few weeks but I expect him to bounce back and put pressure on Quintana.