Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Krzysztof_O]

Regarding total elevation gain: a lot depends on how steep it is. The total gain includes not only climbs but also false flats (i.e. 1-3%). The true is that on those nearly flat sections aero drag is still the main resistive force so it resembles flat sections more than uphill (therefore guys in the middle of the bunch will use up way less energy than pacesetters, making it easier than climbs). 4000 meters of total climbing (at average of 7-8%) can be more difficult than 5000 meters with half of it on shallow gradients (assuming that some team wants to make it hard OFC, it's always pace dependent).

It's a 32 minute ITT, you just go balls to the wall. Maybe do a slightly negative split.

Pretty much an anaerobic threshold test, maybe slightly above for a part of the route.

 

[Netserk]

I went full Valv.Piti in my expectations for Agnello+Izoard in 2020. Dennis of Rohan would've made another epic!

 

[Red Rick]

Remember the Madonna stage in 2020? That was insanely bad.


I don't know. If I had to guess I'd say the route change didn't change much and the first gc attacks would have come on Montgenevre instead of the second Sestriere ascent. Agnello was extremely far out and Izoard is super overrated.

Yeah I dont think that stage is super awesome with the GC standings as they were, but it's also the design that begs for Izoard attacks at the latest of a roder has to make up big time and if Rohan Dennis isnt suddenly domestique of the decade.

Flat into Finestre-Sestriere would have been best there, though maube Dennia would have still pulled amy Hindley attack back which would have been comedy.

Could have beem the one time where you 2022 Fedaia or 2023 Tre Cime actually is the least bad for a final mountaon stage

And I remember Madonna 2020, but O completely forgot O Connor won it or was even there

 

[Gigs_98]

And I remember Madonna 2020, but O completely forgot O Connor won it or was even there

I remember it as the stage where the most relevant gc action came from the one and only Hermann Pernsteiner.

 

[bNator]

He was always going to ride both but it was never a realistic goal. Now it is.

Also what do you mean “Nice try”?

I mean nice try, trying to portray the most ambitious rider of his generation as being supposedly afraid of the challenge to meet Vingegaard. If any of this was true, he has a lot of other options than doing the Giro and going to the Tour "knowing" he would be smashed by Vingegaard for the third time in a row. He could just as easily say "well guys, this only comes around once every 4 years, I am doing a Giro and OG this year". If he didn't believe double is a realistic option, why go for that when you can win a lot of other races and make a story out of it?

And that's what we're talking about here, right? What Pog thinks is possible not what you think is possible... You said they altered their strategy now that Vinge crashed meaning that before, they didn't believe it was possible to win the double. Pog apparently believes he can win the double with 100% Jonas doing the Tour - whether you like it or not.

And if he does win it this year, his victory with Remco, Roglic and post-injury Vingegaard will be just as valid as Vingegaards was last year without Roglic and Remco and with post-injury Pog. In fact, in this case, @Salvarani will be completely justified in coming here, telling you guys that Pog completely destroyed Vingegaard...

 

[Berniece]

I mean nice try, trying to portray the most ambitious rider of his generation as being supposedly afraid of the challenge to meet Vingegaard. If any of this was true, he has a lot of other options than doing the Giro and going to the Tour "knowing" he would be smashed by Vingegaard for the third time in a row. He could just as easily say "well guys, this only comes around once every 4 years, I am doing a Giro and OG this year". If he didn't believe double is a realistic option, why go for that when you can win a lot of other races and make a story out of it?

A couple of things why I disagree with you is. First of all, TDF isn't a choice, it's an obligation from UAE. So saying I'll do Giro, OG, and no TDF, isn't an option. Secondly, OG isn't made for him. He won't win it. WC this year on the other hand, I think he will win. So going for the double was never a realistic goal imo, the reason why he does it, is because he has to ride TDF. So choosing to also start at the Giro makes sure he finally wins a GT again after 2 dry years. Which btw was the opinion of more people when he announced his program in the beginning of the season.

And that's what we're talking about here, right? What Pog thinks is possible not what you think is possible... You said they altered their strategy now that Vinge crashed meaning that before, they didn't believe it was possible to win the double. Pog apparently believes he can win the double with 100% Jonas doing the Tour - whether you like it or not.

I'm saying that they believe the chance to win TDF is suddenly much higher due to Vingegaard crashing, and therefor changed tactics for this Giro.

And if he does win it this year, his victory with Remco, Roglic and post-injury Vingegaard will be just as valid as Vingegaards was last year without Roglic and Remco and with post-injury Pog. In fact, in this case, @Salvarani will be completely justified in coming here, telling you guys that Pog completely destroyed Vingegaard...

A victory is a victory, it will always be valid. If you want me to rank it, I put the victory of Vingegaard higher because their injuries aren't comparable at all, and beating Roglic/Evenepoel doesn't mean anything yet when they haven't shown to be comparable with Pog/Vingegaard.

 

[Peyroteo94]

A couple of things why I disagree with you is. First of all, TDF isn't a choice, it's an obligation from UAE. So saying I'll do Giro, OG, and no TDF, isn't an option. Secondly, OG isn't made for him. He won't win it. WC this year on the other hand, I think he will win. So going for the double was never a realistic goal imo, the reason why he does it, is because he has to ride TDF. So choosing to also start at the Giro makes sure he finally wins a GT again after 2 dry years. Which btw was the opinion of more people when he announced his program in the beginning of the season.


I'm saying that they believe the chance to win TDF is suddenly much higher due to Vingegaard crashing, and therefor changed tactics for this Giro.


A victory is a victory, it will always be valid. If you want me to rank it, I put the victory of Vingegaard higher because their injuries aren't comparable at all, and beating Roglic/Evenepoel doesn't mean anything yet when they haven't shown to be comparable with Pog/Vingegaard.

How do you know this? It is funny how some people give their own opinion like it was a straight fact.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I went full Valv.Piti in my expectations for Agnello+Izoard in 2020. Dennis of Rohan would've made another epic!

Yeah, and I went full Netserk stage 5 Tour de France 2009 (since Im obviously keeping all of your assessments on the different stages in my Google drive, sorted by races, years and other things that makes it easier find it quickly). I hope I don't get disappointed now, because man, what a controversial take that one was!

 

[Red Rick]

I remember it as the stage where the most relevant gc action came from the one and only Hermann Pernsteiner.

I remember it as Roham Dennis getting 10th from the breakaway about 22.5 hours before setting the Giro on fire

 

[bNator]

A couple of things why I disagree with you is. First of all, TDF isn't a choice, it's an obligation from UAE. So saying I'll do Giro, OG, and no TDF, isn't an option. Secondly, OG isn't made for him. He won't win it. WC this year on the other hand, I think he will win. So going for the double was never a realistic goal imo, the reason why he does it, is because he has to ride TDF. So choosing to also start at the Giro makes sure he finally wins a GT again after 2 dry years. Which btw was the opinion of more people when he announced his program in the beginning of the season.

We really do disagree on many things. Me for instance, I think it was just the opposite - more people thought Pog is crazy enough to attempt the double. For a guy who attempts to beat MvdP in Flanders and who says 80km to go "I've had enough of you guys", the idea is not so outrageous. Of course I can prove that just as much as you can... Therefore, maybe we should refrain from claiming we know what people think?

I'm saying that they believe the chance to win TDF is suddenly much higher due to Vingegaard crashing, and therefor changed tactics for this Giro.

You said his chance of winning the double was "never realistic". You are tuning it down a bit now (which is good). I agree of course that now, his chances are higher. In fact, I pretty much agree with how the bookies saw his chances before vs. after Vingegaard crash.

A victory is a victory, it will always be valid. If you want me to rank it, I put the victory of Vingegaard higher because their injuries aren't comparable at all, and beating Roglic/Evenepoel doesn't mean anything yet when they haven't shown to be comparable with Pog/Vingegaard.

The only thing that matters to me is that I can use the word "destroy". Seems like a fun word to use on this forum

 

[Netserk]

I mean nice try, trying to portray the most ambitious rider of his generation as being supposedly afraid of the challenge to meet Vingegaard. If any of this was true, he has a lot of other options than doing the Giro and going to the Tour "knowing" he would be smashed by Vingegaard for the third time in a row. He could just as easily say "well guys, this only comes around once every 4 years, I am doing a Giro and OG this year". If he didn't believe double is a realistic option, why go for that when you can win a lot of other races and make a story out of it?

He didn't portray Pogi as afraid, those are your words.

The Giro is not ideal prep for the Tour, and after the last two losses he was not going to be the favourite for the Tour by taking on a handicap. The crash changed that, now he is the favourite for the Tour. So even more than before, it makes sense to trade excessive Giro glory for a lesser Tour handicap.

 

[Berniece]

He didn't portray Pogi as afraid, those are your words.

The Giro is not ideal prep for the Tour, and after the last two losses he was not going to be the favourite for the Tour by taking on a handicap. The crash changed that, now he is the favourite for the Tour. So even more than before, it makes sense to trade excessive Giro glory for a lesser Tour handicap.

Thank you, maybe you explained it better than me, because it's mostly this. And @bNator might have misinterpreted my message, or I miswrote what I intended.

 

[bNator]

He didn't portray Pogi as afraid, those are your words.

The Giro is not ideal prep for the Tour, and after the last two losses he was not going to be the favourite for the Tour by taking on a handicap. The crash changed that, now he is the favourite for the Tour. So even more than before, it makes sense to trade excessive Giro glory for a lesser Tour handicap.

But then again, these are your words and not @Berniece 's... What he really said, was:

He was always going to ride both but it was never a realistic goal. Now it is.

What crash changed was that before the crash, he was the second favourite for winning the Tour (despite doing the Giro) and now he's the top favourite. Being top favourite for the Giro and second favourite for winning the Tour is hardly not realistic.

 

[Berniece]

What crashed changed was that before the crash, he was the second favourite for winning the Tour (despite doing the Giro) and now he's the top favourite. Being top favourite for the Giro and second favourite for winning the Tour is hardly not realistic.

It is when the favourite for the Tour is much better than you.

 

[bNator]

It is when the favourite for the Tour is much better than you.

So what you are saying is that as long as Vingegaard attends the Tour uninjured, noone has realistic chances of beating him. If Pog (who is the second favourite) doesn't, then noone does. You can't make exaggerations like that and then expect to be taken seriously...

 

[Salvarani]

It is when the favourite for the Tour is much better than you.

It is still a realistic goal for him as a rider. It would be different if it was someone who has never ridden the Tour, havent won it or stepped on the podium.

 

[Netserk]

So what you are saying is that as long as Vingegaard attends the Tour uninjured, noone has realistic chances of beating him. If Pog (who is the second favourite) doesn't, then noone does. You can't make exaggerations like that and then expect to be taken seriously...

Personally, I was very impressed by the level Pogi had in last year's Tour. So I thought that he could beat Vingegaard in the Tour this year, even if he wouldn't be the favourite.

But that's conditional on fully focusing on the Tour, not with the Giro in his legs. For the double, it hinges far more on circumstances than strength alone.

 

[Berniece]

So what you are saying is that as long as Vingegaard attends the Tour uninjured, noone has realistic chances of beating him.

Yeah, after last year's showing that's exactly what I'm saying. Someone new could come along, or someone might make a jump in his progression (Pogacar or Evenepoel), and obviously there are some youngsters that might in the future. But now, I don't think Pogacar stood a chance against a Vingegaard that is perfectly prepared.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Pogačar standing no chance against the much better Vingegaard:

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HkyezD9ZBmc&pp=ygUbMjAyMyB0b3VyIGRlIGZyYW5jZSBzdGFnZSA2

 

[Peyroteo94]

Yeah, after last year's showing that's exactly what I'm saying. Someone new could come along, or someone might make a jump in his progression (Pogacar or Evenepoel), and obviously there are some youngsters that might in the future. But now, I don't think Pogacar stood a chance against a Vingegaard that is perfectly prepared.

But Pogacar wasn't perfectly prepared last year and this is a fact. I still think Vingegaard is better than Pogacar but you can't claim Vingegaard was much better than Pogacar because that is not true, even against a suboptimal prepared Pogacar. If Pogacar destroys Vingegaard in the 2024 Tour, I will not say Vingegaard can't stand a chance against Pogacar because circunstances are important. Now, we have to wait for 2025 to have a nice battle again between these 2 monsters.

 

[bNator]

Personally, I was very impressed by the level Pogi had in last year's Tour. So I thought that he could beat Vingegaard in the Tour this year, even if he wouldn't be the favourite.

But that's conditional on fully focusing on the Tour, not with the Giro in his legs. For the double, it hinges far more on circumstances than strength alone.

So let's take last year's Pog and Vinge and say they have exactly the same prep as last year except Pog has no injury and maybe let's take this year's TdF route. I think Pog has a fair chance of beating Vingegaard this way. The only question is then: do you think an easy Giro is actually a worse prep than full spring classics programme? I'm not so sure...

Yeah, after last year's showing that's exactly what I'm saying. Someone new could come along, or someone might make a jump in his progression (Pogacar or Evenepoel), and obviously there are some youngsters that might in the future. But now, I don't think Pogacar stood a chance against a Vingegaard that is perfectly prepared.

Either that or Vingegaard may never again get so lucky with the combination of:

• his main rival being injured
• other major rivals not attending
• the strongest team
• perfectly suited route

Didn't you call me a child a couple of days ago? Well, I've been around, you know More than enough to know that just as you think you have it all figured out, you're back at square one.

 

[Red Rick]

I dont really believe Pogacars plan for the Giro changed much when Vingegaard crashed in Itzulia

 

[Berniece]

Either that or Vingegaard may never again get so lucky with the combination of:

• his main rival being injured
• other major rivals not attending
• the strongest team
• perfectly suited route

Didn't you call me a child a couple of days ago? Well, I've been around, you know More than enough to know that just as you think you have it all figured out, you're back at square one.

Well don't get started about riders being lucky in the Pogacar thread... The only thing you have going for Pogacar is that indeed he might not be perfectly prepared last year. I'm just saying that it wouldn't have mattered.

I can't recall calling you a child, maybe the post has been deleted. I might have asked if you are a child? Because you see the world so black and white, one way or the other, nothing in between.

 

[bNator]

Well don't get started about riders being lucky in the Pogacar thread... The only thing you have going for Pogacar is that indeed he might not be perfectly prepared last year. I'm just saying that it wouldn't have mattered.

I can't recall calling you a child, maybe the post has been deleted. I might have asked if you are a child? Because you see the world so black and white, one way or the other, nothing in between.

You just don't see the irony, do you?

 

[Netserk]

So let's take last year's Pog and Vinge and say they have exactly the same prep as last year except Pog has no injury and maybe let's take this year's TdF route. I think Pog has a fair chance of beating Vingegaard this way. The only question is then: do you think an easy Giro is actually a worse prep than full spring classics programme? I'm not so sure...

Yes, by far.