Full UAE setup on Poggio just doesn't work. He's in 2nd wheel eating more wind than the rest, and the first attack last year dropped nobody. Then he managed to get MvdP out of position and he closed it down anyway despite being on his first race day for the season.Yes, being simply first on Poggio may not be enough if guys just behind descend better. He would need a proper selection and monster work by UAE (without being blocked at the start of Cipressa or Poggio). We will see. There's also an option that he will attack from a small group in the last 1-2 km and hope for a moment of hesitation.