Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[James M]

Someone should just do the W/kg estimate for that, assuming that's the W/kg the front rider needs to do in turns. Drafting is huge on the Cipressa and if you're in 3rd wheel you should be guaranteed to be doing over 1W/kg less than the guy in front.

climbing time8:59 = average speed of 38.1km/h - (10.6m/s)
Power = eight x g x Gradient x speed. = 75x9.81 x 0.041 x 10.6 = 321W
rolling resistance 0.0004x 75 x 9.81 x 10.6= 31 W
drag CD x a x p x speed = 106 W

6.11W/kg assuming rider weight 75kg(inc bike) for time 8:59. More than doable if the conditions are okei. Its all about positioning though, 100% is key to do it.

And impossible ofc to get accurate W/kg with different riders but a benchmark for 75kg(inc bike) gives a estimate what they need to do, im 100% expecting sub 9min if the conditions are normal anything else will be a huge fail from UAE to me, given their incentive in the race. Theres no excuses with the riders on the bench to not get sub 9min.(that is if its not raining + headwind )

Second rider just removing the aero drag 100W + less, aprox 5.68W/kg ish. So drafting obv huge on a ''climb'' like cipressa.

 

[Unchained]

In this article, Del Toro is there and not McNulty.

"Plan is to do Cipressa under 9" - Report shines light on UAE Team Emirates - XRG's expected Milano-Sanremo tactics

Will Tadej Pogacar finally be able to get over the winning line at Milano-Sanremo this weekend. After a string of increasingly closer close calls over recent years, the Slovenian is expected to mix th...

cyclinguptodate.com

Del Toro was showing good form in team training for Strade Bianche, but for training volume, can't see why they would pick Del Toro over McNulty, with a really long race I would pick rider with more mileage. I don't know for sure but MSR would likely be the longest elite race Del Toro has done. Del Toro coming off of top ten TT, and top 20 GC in Tirreno Adriatico, @2:30 off pace. McNulty with lots of good days this year, lots of top 20s for his race days.

 

[James M]

So the great one is riding again in 4 days? Great ive been deprived for greatness. Bring it on, I want chaos.

 

[James M]

Someone explain to me why Novak is going(assuming he is now, know it can change, but lets assume he is) when he is in bad shape for his standard even.

Besides him being Slovenian and a terrific guy im sure, always gives his 110% thats great but he isnt in top shape and riders like Del Toro, Morgado are flying compared to him now. Gives me Contador - Jesus Henrnandez wibes

 

[Shortcut]

So the great one is riding again in 4 days? Great ive been deprived for greatness. Bring it on, I want chaos.

It's crazy how much talk on cycling's forums is about MSR since January. I think there would be like 80-90% less talk about it when Tadej wouldn't be part of it. He is best thing ever happened to this race. I think organizers also pray he doesn't win it.

 

[Shortcut]

Someone explain to me why Novak is going(assuming he is now, know it can change, but lets assume he is) when he is in bad shape for his standard even.

Besides him being Slovenian and a terrific guy im sure, always gives his 110% thats great but he isnt in top shape and riders like Del Toro, Morgado are flying compared to him now. Gives me Contador - Jesus Henrnandez wibes

Nobody knows. Bjerg is like Novak on steroids for this race. But still i can that, but choosing Mcnulty over Del Toro is just absurd.

 

[Monsi]

Nobody knows. Bjerg is like Novak on steroids for this race. But still i can that, but choosing Mcnulty over Del Toro is just absurd.

They have Del Toro. McNulty is first reserve. The provisional list released by RCS is not updated.

 

[James M]

It's crazy how much talk on cycling's forums is about MSR since January. I think there would be like 80-90% less talk about it when Tadej wouldn't be part of it. He is best thing ever happened to this race. I think organizers also pray he doesn't win it.

Only race remaining I wouldnt bet on him to steamroll as he pleases. His hardest puzzle to win to me, because this race is no attrition race, its piss easy, not even a training ride for Pogi for 85% of the distance.

(It’s so easy that 10-20 guys can win it, and luck plays a role, which ironically makes it hard to win. It also round out and diversify the monuments—theres something for everyone, which is good and how it should be imo.)

Let him win it like Messi won his World Cup at the end of his career. It would make the best story. And yes, you're obviously right.

 

[Shortcut]

They have Del Toro. McNulty is first reserve. The provisional list released by RCS is not updated.

I hope really that is the case. Just thinking having Mcnulty over Del Toro for this race is criminal.

 

[Salvarani]

Someone explain to me why Novak is going(assuming he is now, know it can change, but lets assume he is) when he is in bad shape for his standard even.

Besides him being Slovenian and a terrific guy im sure, always gives his 110% thats great but he isnt in top shape and riders like Del Toro, Morgado are flying compared to him now. Gives me Contador - Jesus Henrnandez wibes

They know what they are gonna get from Novak and he has qualities on a good day as well. Either way, he is a team player and solid. Reliable for the tasks he will have, which are likely to serve the leader and the others for as long as he is there. Maybe do some pulls on the first capos and then he is done. Others will take over.

Morgado is still young and doing the above work would be meaningless to have him do. He is also too similar to riders like Narvaez and Wellens, who has more experience for this.

Likely Novak does dirty work. Laengen eats wind for a majority of the race. Politt to lead the team in the run-in to Cipressa, if capos are not raced very hard. Probably Narvaez + Del Toro on Cipressa and then you probably save Wellens a bit if Pog does not attack or doesnt get away enough there, so Wellens maybe pull a smaller group to Poggio or launch him in a last attempt if needed.

And if they really race capos hard and he tries to go solo from Cipressa... well it will be an epic attempt if nothing else.

 

[Peyroteo94]

It's crazy how much talk on cycling's forums is about MSR since January. I think there would be like 80-90% less talk about it when Tadej wouldn't be part of it. He is best thing ever happened to this race. I think organizers also pray he doesn't win it.

This is so true. MSR always was the least important monument

 

[Peyroteo94]

Only race remaining I wouldnt bet on him to steamroll as he pleases. His hardest puzzle to win to me, because this race is no attrition race, its piss easy, not even a training ride for Pogi for 85% of the distance.

(It’s so easy that 10-20 guys can win it, and luck plays a role, which ironically makes it hard to win. It also round out and diversify the monuments—theres something for everyone, which is good and how it should be imo.)

Let him win it like Messi won his World Cup at the end of his career. It would make the best story. And yes, you're obviously right.

Pedersen said he hates MSR because it is a race of 5 hours without doing anything. MSR, nowadays, is like jebel hafeet stage. Zone 1 ride and then a very hard effort.

 

[Froome]

Pedersen said he hates MSR because it is a race of 5 hours without doing anything. MSR, nowadays, is like jebel hafeet stage. Zone 1 ride and then a very hard effort.

If you were the diretor of ASO, there wouldn't be no more sprint stages in the Tour.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Only race remaining I wouldnt bet on him to steamroll as he pleases. His hardest puzzle to win to me, because this race is no attrition race, its piss easy, not even a training ride for Pogi for 85% of the distance.

(It’s so easy that 10-20 guys can win it, and luck plays a role, which ironically makes it hard to win. It also round out and diversify the monuments—theres something for everyone, which is good and how it should be imo.)

Let him win it like Messi won his World Cup at the end of his career. It would make the best story. And yes, you're obviously right.

MSR is Teddy's kryptonite, the last hope for the rest of the world. If he wins it's over: MVP takes up skiing, Vingo resumes fishy stuff, Remco football etc.

 

[YavorD]

MSR is Teddy's kryptonite, the last hope for the rest of the world. If he wins it's over: MVP takes up skiing, Vingo resumes fishy stuff, Remco football etc.

So you're telling me there's a chance to see Roglic in Planica next week?
Sign me in.

 

[hayneplane]

Jan Christen would have been very handy if he was available. Better at positioning than Morgado so more likely to be in the right place and did a great turn in Lombardia last year in team support.

 

[Red Rick]

climbing time8:59 = average speed of 38.1km/h - (10.6m/s)
Power = eight x g x Gradient x speed. = 75x9.81 x 0.041 x 10.6 = 321W
rolling resistance 0.0004x 75 x 9.81 x 10.6= 31 W
drag CD x a x p x speed = 106 W

6.11W/kg assuming rider weight 75kg(inc bike) for time 8:59. More than doable if the conditions are okei. Its all about positioning though, 100% is key to do it.

And impossible ofc to get accurate W/kg with different riders but a benchmark for 75kg(inc bike) gives a estimate what they need to do, im 100% expecting sub 9min if the conditions are normal anything else will be a huge fail from UAE to me, given their incentive in the race. Theres no excuses with the riders on the bench to not get sub 9min.(that is if its not raining + headwind )

Second rider just removing the aero drag 100W + less, aprox 5.68W/kg ish. So drafting obv huge on a ''climb'' like cipressa.

137W to ride 38km/h is not at all plausible to me.

 

[scribers]

Jan Christen would have been very handy if he was available. Better at positioning than Morgado so more likely to be in the right place and did a great turn in Lombardia last year in team support.

Feels like UAE prioritized resources for PN and TA over MSR (at risk of furthering @mou's conspiracy ideas). Or maybe it's just bad luck and timing for the team to maximize resources for this monument.

But hey, if Pogi is going to win he has to cross the finish line first no matter what happens on the road.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Jan Christen would have been very handy if he was available. Better at positioning than Morgado so more likely to be in the right place and did a great turn in Lombardia last year in team support.

Jan Christen would be a great addition. But he will be there in the Ardennes.

 

[Red Rick]

In my view you need to bring your rouleur/climber hybrids, so I'd bring the likes of Sivakov and Soler for this.

 

[Peyroteo94]

In my view you need to bring your rouleur/climber hybrids, so I'd bring the likes of Sivakov and Soler for this.

Sivakov is sick and Soler isn't great in the spring (normally he needs racing days to be in shape).

 

[hayneplane]

In my view you need to bring your rouleur/climber hybrids, so I'd bring the likes of Sivakov and Soler for this.

Sivakov looked way off the pace at PN and still not recovered from sickness. Soler yes but I think he prioritises his home race in Catalunya.

 

[Salvarani]

Jan Christen would have been very handy if he was available. Better at positioning than Morgado so more likely to be in the right place and did a great turn in Lombardia last year in team support.

He is young and also not needed here atm.

 

[Salvarani]

In my view you need to bring your rouleur/climber hybrids, so I'd bring the likes of Sivakov and Soler for this.

Wellens and Narvaez are way more suited here. Especially with the fight for position and classics experience. This is their terrain as they are very all-round. More explosive.

Sivakov and Soler would be absolutely nowhere here and left in the dust.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Wellens and Narvaez are way more suited here. Especially with the fight for position and classics experience. This is their terrain as they are very all-round. More explosive.

Sivakov and Soler would be absolutely nowhere here and left in the dust.

Only Vermeersch is missing IMHO. Team is good enough. Weather is more important since Pogi is a beast in wet conditions.