Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Krzysztof_O]

He is a monster on rainy days.

It's more about cold and the way his engine deals with it. Obviously rain makes body temperature drop faster (so the effect is more pronounced) but still a sufficiently low air temperature is needed. It's still 120 hours away (so substantial changes can happen) but temperatures of 15-20 degrees are in forecasts right now.

 

[James M]

After Pogacar's inhuman performance on piss low gradients in MSR (redefining how it’s ridden, even), it should foreshadow what’s coming. Thats nothing against MvdP, as he’s clearly better than ever and absolutely incredible, and already belongs in the pantheon of cobble cycling elites how great he is.

However, nobody should be surprised tomorrow when Pogacar raises the bar yet another level. The signs are there. Just enjoy the show.

Might just be me, but I'm surprised that before RVV this wasn’t always the obvious outcome for everyone I genuinly am and just as I said before, its nothing to do with MvdP cause he's beyond great.

How can people watch the end of last year and even MSR, where he redefined how they rode the race even— 4% Cipressa with a 40 km/h ave and 45 km/h on several long efforts—and not come to the conclusion of what he would do here? Do people not understand the drag benefits and how much more wattage he had to use, or what is it?

Ppl just need to stop looking behind for answers. You will always end up surprised then—the signs were more than there.

 

[James M]

If you pay attention, he also rides in the exact same way as he rides the mountains and other more mountainous classics.

He increases the speed—not by attacking flat out to create a gap, but simply by riding up to his limit. That limit happens to be far beyond what anyone else can handle. He doesn’t attack in one explosive move; instead, he steadily rides up to his threshold, forcing everyone else to transition from an aerobic state to an anaerobic state, where the body starts to break down quickly. We saw this exact methodology in every race last year, and the same approach is evident here. He then continues relentlessly every time as its nothing in this case— or in more mountainous stages, where he maintains the same speed. It’s the same way and beyond methodical by now.

 

[James M]

Moving on to Roubaix, it's an entirely different ballgame, and definitely not a foregone conclusion in any way regarding Pogacar. He’s not even the favorite—more an ultimate joker. It could go either way, in my opinion.

I personally prefer RVV, but I’m looking forward to Paris-Roubaix even more. I just want to see and get an outline of the extent to which this terrain impacts him. It’s obviously not favorable for him relative to the others, but I want to see to what extent, cause this guys breaks cycling norms wherever he sets his eyes now a days.

 

[Stubb]

TBH I can't see rain favouring Pogacar in any way. Rain + cold favour him against other climbers but those big boys (MVP, Wout, Mads) are used to performing well in shitty weather plus it won't be even cold on Sunday.

Well, I might be wrong, but with rain he has a chance to win the race - as much as crashing or dnf- , without it he can maybe podium, but no way he can drop Ganna and Wva without some "external" factor. In the 2022 tour cobble stage he was good, but nowhere near winning-roubaix good.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Well, I might be wrong, but with rain he has a chance to win the race - as much as crashing or dnf- , without it he can maybe podium, but no way he can drop Ganna and Wva without some "external" factor. In the 2022 tour cobble stage he was good, but nowhere near winning-roubaix good.

Well, in this sense yes. That's exactly what I posted in my previous post (more randomness). But not as an objective performance advantage over this rivals (as it shouldn't be too cold plus his top rivals are also good in shitty weather).

 

[Sciatic]

Might just be me, but I'm surprised that before RVV this wasn’t always the obvious outcome for everyone I genuinly am and just as I said before, its nothing to do with MvdP cause he's beyond great.

How can people watch the end of last year and even MSR, where he redefined how they rode the race—even 4% Cipressa with a 40 km/h ave and 45 km/h on several long efforts—and not come to the conclusion of what he would do here? Do people not understand the drag benefits and how much more wattage he had to use, or what is it?

Ppl just need to stop looking behind for answers. You will always end up surprised then—the signs were more than there.

I can try to offer and explanation for that. I thought he would win RvV, after all he's done it in dominant fashion before and has showed he is even better this year. No doubts.

I think it's quite possible he'll win Roubaix, but I don't see it in any way as the same situation as Flanders or San Remo. Primarily because there are no climbs.
In addition, if you look at effective decision-making and judgment outside of cycling and outside of sport, a common bias error is to undervalue known data and prior outcomes, and overvalue potential outcomes. In that world, unless there are other variables (MVDP being ill or crashes) MVDP's prior outcomes in this exact race should have a higher value than Pogacar's potential value based on other prior races. There is also recency bias at work here.
So I would put he and MDVP as even favorites, with a slight edge to the latter based on the above.
Doesn't make much difference to me: I'll be rooting for Wout or Pedersen.

 

[Peyroteo94]

It's more about cold and the way his engine deals with it. Obviously rain makes body temperature drop faster (so the effect is more pronounced) but still a sufficiently low air temperature is needed. It's still 120 hours away (so substantial changes can happen) but temperatures of 15-20 degrees are in forecasts right now.

Vuelta 2019, how was the temperature in the last mountain stage?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Vuelta 2019, how was the temperature in the last mountain stage?

9-11 degrees in Navacerrada in the afternoon plus continuous rain. Pretty cold conditions in this area.

Decoded synop reports

 

[Cookster15]

He doesn’t attack in one explosive move; instead, he steadily rides up to his threshold, forcing everyone else to transition from an aerobic state to an anaerobic state, where the body starts to break down quickly.

I get this. But doing that uphill isn't the same as on the flat such as PR. The draft effect. Other riders on his wheel can be expending up to 30% less energy. That's not the case on a mountain when the speed and draft effect is much lower.

If I am a powerful rider suited to Roubaix (like MvDP or Wout) I am thinking if I can get to Tadei's wheel there isn't much he can do to get rid of me. Even SB has small climbs. Not PR.

 

[Offline]

TBH I can't see rain favouring Pogacar in any way. Rain + cold favour him against other climbers but those big boys (MVP, Wout, Mads) are used to performing well in shitty weather plus it won't be even cold on Sunday.

Agree it’s a disadvantage! And it make the race more dangerous. If it rain heavily, UAE need to pull him and send him to Amstel tbh

 

[James M]

I get this. But doing that uphill isn't the same as on the flat such as PR. The draft effect. Other riders on his wheel can be expending up to 30% less energy. That's not the case on a mountain when the speed and draft effect is much lower.

If I am a powerful rider suited to Roubaix (like MvDP or Wout) I am thinking if I can get to Tadei's wheel there isn't much he can do to get rid of me. Even SB has small climbs. Not PR.

I agree, that was about RVV, and also how he rides it in the exact same manner as high-altitude mountains or mountainous classics for those paying attention, saw the same exact methodology every single race last year; He doesn’t attack in one explosive move; instead, he steadily rides up to his threshold, forcing everyone else to transition from an aerobic state to an anaerobic state. It was the exact same there the methodology is beyond obvious by now.

As for PR, obv I agree.

Moving on to Roubaix, it's an entirely different ballgame, and definitely not a foregone conclusion in any way regarding Pogacar. He’s not even the favorite—more an ultimate joker. It could go either way, in my opinion.

I personally prefer RVV, but I’m looking forward to Paris-Roubaix even more. I just want to see and get an outline of the extent to which this terrain impacts him. It’s obviously not favorable for him relative to the others, but I want to see to what extent, cause this guys breaks cycling norms wherever he sets his eyes now a days.

The question just becomes to what extent—his engine is unmatched, but it remains to be seen how much that obviously unfavorable terrain will impact him relative to the others. We have no outliers, so it could be more even than we think. He could end up being lucky to get a top 5,we just don’t know. Logically, that might be the expected outcome, but this guy regularly defies and rewrites cycling norms with his current level.

The pavé is also about raw power, but so is Cipressa, especially at his wheel and even more at the front... His raw power numbers there are absolutely ludicrous! If anything, it’s just going to be exciting to watch, and that we get to see it this year already is awesome. In my opinion, it all comes down to the extent to which weight matters on the pavé for him. RVV was always a foregone conclusion in my book—this, however, is anything but.

 

[Peyroteo94]

9-11 degrees in Navacerrada in the afternoon plus continuous rain. Pretty cold conditions in this area.

Decoded synop reports

And the first stage he won in that Vuelta?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

And the first stage he won in that Vuelta?

Too lazy to find, check by yourself at ogimet.com

 

[YavorD]

And the first stage he won in that Vuelta?

If I remember correctly, it was rainy and cold(?) we didn't even have coverage for some time during MAL's attack.

 

[hayneplane]

PR is dangerous until Mons en Pevele. Between 130 - 60 km he must avoid any crash. Race is probably too ripped after this period.

The mass pileups are far less likely at that point as the peloton has usually already been significantly fractured by then. A crash can occur at any moment but the worst is over.

Best strategy for UAE would be to shred the pack long before Arenberg to to take the sting out of the approach to the forest. Alpecin did this superbly well last year.

 

[Lorzenz08]

The mass pileups are far less likely at that point as the peloton has usually already been significantly fractured by then. A crash can occur at any moment but the worst is over.

Best strategy for UAE would be to shred the pack long before Arenberg to to take the sting out of the approach to the forest. Alpecin did this superbly well last year.

Agreed, when MVDP did his attack no one had the legs to try to jump in his wheel

 

[jono]

Agreed, when MVDP did his attack no one had the legs to try to jump in his wheel

Vermeersch (or was it Philipsen?) also did a good job of blocking at the moment of his initial attack.

 

[Shortcut]

I get this. But doing that uphill isn't the same as on the flat such as PR. The draft effect. Other riders on his wheel can be expending up to 30% less energy. That's not the case on a mountain when the speed and draft effect is much lower.

If I am a powerful rider suited to Roubaix (like MvDP or Wout) I am thinking if I can get to Tadei's wheel there isn't much he can do to get rid of me. Even SB has small climbs. Not PR.

But why would Tadej attack? I know it's his style, but this is only race this year where he is not favourite and could just follow MvDP or at least Pedersen. Just that should bring him podium. It will be all about positioning. If he can manage to be at right place in right time, he can get to podium without attacking. I don't expect win, podium would be crazy.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

But why would Tadej attack?

To win? If he can position himself in line for the podium, why not try to win?

 

[pihi42]

But why .. Just that should bring him podium.

I'm afraid Pogi isn't too much into collecting podiums.

 

[Lorzenz08]

Tbh even if it comes down to a sprint Tadej chances are not extremely bad either.

In MSR he didnt lose any ground to MVDP or Ganna once they started the sprint. The problem he was just so much behind at the start.

IMO placement and luck will be the major elements on Sunday.

 

[Peyroteo94]

If I remember correctly, it was rainy and cold(?) we didn't even have coverage for some time during MAL's attack.

19° (in the beginning of the stage) but only rained in the last climb.

 

[Peyroteo94]

The mass pileups are far less likely at that point as the peloton has usually already been significantly fractured by then. A crash can occur at any moment but the worst is over.

Best strategy for UAE would be to shred the pack long before Arenberg to to take the sting out of the approach to the forest. Alpecin did this superbly well last year.

Yup. Rui Oliveira will be important to position Pogacar.

 

[scribers]

Several of you are so ***-sure about him winning in any conditions. Perhaps you're right, but I wish this website had an internal wagering function so you'd have to put your money where your mouth is.

I aint afraid to let my mouth write checks it can't cash!