Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Cycling111]

I won't be reading much into what happens. A reminder that this happened in 2023 and Pogi was still destroyed in July:-

Paris - Nice 2023 Stage 4 results

Tadej PogaÄar is the winner of Paris - Nice 2023 Stage 4, before David Gaudu and Gino Mäder. Tadej PogaÄar was leader in GC.

www.procyclingstats.com

Sure this was early March and Pogi broke his wrist at LBL in April but..

The riders and teams can say what they want but the Dauphiné is in realty just a prep race. If you lose in July nobody will care if you won a 1 week stage race in June. Its been this way since Armstrong's time.

Vingegaard has won Daupinhé, and he didn't win another time because he let Roglic beat him.
It's a preparatory race, but Vingegaard always arrives in great shape.

Without Pogacar Vingegaard wouldn´t have finished behind Gaudu in Paris-Nice, he would´ve won it like he won Itzulia, which was his next race, or like he won Tirreno the following year.

In any case, Vingegaard's results and performance at the Dauphiné speak for themselves. He always arrives in great shape before the Tour.


2023

1	VINGEGAARD Jonas	Jumbo-Visma	29:28:39
2	YATES Adam	UAE Team Emirates	2:23

2022.
He did what Froome did to Wiggins, he was stronger than Roglic in that Dauphiné but he respected the hierarchy.

1	ROGLIC Primož	Jumbo-Visma	29:11:22
2	VINGEGAARD Jonas	Jumbo-Visma	0:40

 

[YavorD]

Vingegaard is close to his peak in Dauphiné. Unfortunately for us, we don't a great route here and Pogacar is the clear favorite.

Exactly.
If Pogacar, however, loses in Dauphiné, I would be slightly worried about his Tour chances.

 

[Froome]

Assume you are referring to the 2022 and 2023 Tour. Today we are discussing because the Dauphiné is about to start and we get a sneak preview of their form head to head.

2023 Tour I generally agree. I think it was loss of preparation time that saw Pogacar collapse on Loze. The day before he emptied himself on the Combloux TT trying to minimize the gap to Vingegaard. He did not recover in time from that effort.

Vingegaard 2024 had a worse preparation for the Tour, than Pogacar 2024, and yet Vingegaard never faded like pogacar on la loze, and finished more closer in GC, than pogacar in 2023.

You can also take conclusions from this fact.

Nevertheless, pogacar arrived in the Tour 2023 without any physical problems.

Vingegaard arrived in the Tour 2024 with 56/57 kg, less than his optimal weight, because he was in a bed of hospital 15 days, losing a lot of muscle mass, something he never recovered until the Tour 2024, and that is really really tough and disadvantageous.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Exactly.
If Pogacar, however, loses in Dauphiné, I would be slightly worried about his Tour chances.

I completely agree. If Pogacar loses, his chances are not good for the Tour. I can't say the same about Vingegaard, unless he gets completely destroyed by Pogacar.

 

[Cookster15]

Vingegaard 2024 had a worse preparation for the Tour, than Pogacar 2024, and yet Vingegaard never faded like pogacar on la loze, and finished more closer in GC, than pogacar in 2023.

You can also take conclusions from this fact.

Nevertheless, pogacar arrived in the Tour 2023 without any physical problems.

Vingegaard arrived in the Tour 2024 with 56/57 kg, less than his optimal weight, because he was in a bed of hospital 15 days, losing a lot of muscle mass, something he never recovered until the Tour 2024, and that is really really tough and disadvantageous.

Sure, Vingegaard's level in the 2024 Tour was incredible really. But you can't compare Pogacar 2024 to Pogacar 2023 (or 2022) either.

Despite his much worse prep Vingegaard did his best ever watts on PdB - better than when he won the Tour. He executed that stage perfectly, but Pogacar was too good.

Jonas admitted after the Bonette stage that he was worse that day - and that will be due to lost prep and resulting lack of recovery. Lack of recovery shows in different ways. They can still bounce back. Vingegaard did by riding a strong TT in Nice (beating Remco).

This year Pogacar is fresher. I'm still tipping Pogacar to go back to back next month regardless what happens in the Dauphine. Maybe a 2 minute gap by Paris rather than the 6 minutes we saw in 2024. We will see.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Sure, Vingegaard's level in the 2024 Tour was incredible really. But you can't compare Pogacar 2024 to Pogacar 2023 (or 2022) either.

Despite his much worse prep Vingegaard did his best ever watts on PdB - better than when he won the Tour. He executed that stage perfectly, but Pogacar was too good.

Jonas admitted after the Bonette stage that he was worse that day - and that will be due to lost prep and resulting lack of recovery. Lack of recovery shows in different ways. They can still bounce back. Vinegaard did by riding a strong TT in Nice (beating Remco).

This year Pogacar is fresher. I'm still tipping Pogacar to go back to back next month regardless what happens in the Dauphine. Maybe a 2 minute gap by Paris rather than the 6 minutes we saw in 2024. We will see.

Other thing very important to mention is how Pogacar is doing serious altitude training camps for the Tour in June for the second time (first time was last year. In 2023, he wasn't allowed to train outside until the last week of May).
I think no one has ever thinking on this but he might get an extra 2 or 3% needed to beat the best Jonas in July.

 

[Froome]

Sure, Vingegaard's level in the 2024 Tour was incredible really. But you can't compare Pogacar 2024 to Pogacar 2023 (or 2022) either.

Despite his much worse prep Vingegaard did his best ever watts on PdB - better than when he won the Tour. He executed that stage perfectly, but Pogacar was too good.

Jonas admitted after the Bonette stage that he was worse that day - and that will be due to lost prep and resulting lack of recovery. Lack of recovery shows in different ways. They can still bounce back. Vinegaard did by riding a strong TT in Nice (beating Remco).

This year Pogacar is fresher. I'm still tipping Pogacar to go back to back next month regardless what happens in the Dauphine. Maybe a 2 minute gap by Paris rather than the 6 minutes we saw in 2024. We will see.

Best watts ever on PdB doesn't mean that much in the current era.

Due to clinic things, each year, the riders are improving a lot. Bernal is probably doing his best watts ever, but that doesn't mean he is being the version he could be in the last years, because the injuries he had, prevented him from being even more better.

We are in a moment of cycling where we have to be careful to what really means doing the best watts ever.

It is humanly impossible to do your best version of watts ever, when Vingegaard had the injuries he had in April. We are talking about 15 days in bed losing muscle mass, colapsed lungs,broken ribs, broken collarbone. He was limited because of the pneumotorax to breath during months, and for some reason he spent this winter recovering the muscle mass.

Obviously this means he wasn't the best version he could had be on PDB, even if he did his "best watts ever".

Like i said, my point is "best watts ever on PDB" is different from "best watts ever you can do....in your best version ever".
Nevertheless, it was still a miracle.

 

[YavorD]

Best watts ever on PdB doesn't mean that much in the current era.

Due to clinic things, each year, the riders are improving a lot. Bernal is probably doing his best watts ever, but that doesn't mean he is being the version he could be in the last years, because the injuries he had, prevented him from being even more better.

We are in a moment of cycling where we have to be careful to what really means doing the best watts ever.

It is humanly impossible to do your best version of watts ever, when Vingegaard had the injuries he had in April. We are talking about 15 days in bed losing muscle mass, colapsed lungs,broken ribs, broken collarbone. He was limited because of the pneumotorax to breath during months, and for some reason he spent this winter recovering the muscle mass.

Obviously this means he wasn't the best version he could had be on PDB, even if he did his "best watts ever".

Like i said, my point is "best watts ever on PDB" is different from "best watts ever you can do....in your best version ever".
Nevertheless, it was still a miracle.

I think there is agreement within this forum that Vingegaard (and Pogacar for that matter) isn't exactly human.
So I don't think it's accurate from your side to apply basic human logic.

(Applying human logic, there's only so much you can improve and Pogacar and Vingegaard reached monstrous level last year. i don't bet on them improving much (if at all) from that level).

 

[Froome]

I think there is agreement within this forum that Vingegaard (and Pogacar for that matter) isn't exactly human.
So I don't think it's accurate from your side to apply basic human logic.

(Applying human logic, there's only so much you can improve and Pogacar and Vingegaard reached monstrous level last year. i don't bet on them improving much (if at all) from that level).

I am almost sure both will be better than last year, but i also think Vingegaard have more room for improvement, comparing from last year.

 

[YavorD]

I am almost sure both will be better than last year, but i also think Vingegaard have more room for improvement, comparing from last year.

I don't disagree that he probably has more. But if Pogacar is also better than last year that "more" should cover 7-8 minutes, which seems unlikely imo.

It may sound ridiculous, but I don't think Pogacar will reach last year's level, which may allow Vingegaard to close the gap and beat him. But if Pogacar improves, I don't think it's humanly possible to beat him.


Edit: This discussion would probably be more appropriate for "the duel thread", so if some of the mods decides to move the posts there, that's fine.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Last year Rogla won at Dauphiné, this year Pogi likely to put a mark on this race, to make some of the competitors reconsider Tour participation. We'll see.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I don't disagree that he probably has more. But if Pogacar is also better than last year that "more" should cover 7-8 minutes, which seems unlikely imo.

It may sound ridiculous, but I don't think Pogacar will reach last year's level, which may allow Vingegaard to close the gap and beat him. But if Pogacar improves, I don't think it's humanly possible to beat him.


Edit: This discussion would probably be more appropriate for "the duel thread", so if some of the mods decides to move the posts there, that's fine.

Tell me one thing. Why do you think Pogacar can't improve, specially when he did the Giro last year?

 

[YavorD]

Tell me one thing. Why do you think Pogacar can't improve, specially when he did the Giro last year?

Because:
• What he did on PdB was ridiculous and I don't think it's humanly possible to be better than that (at least yet).
• I think the Giro was just a training ride for him, and a better preparation than Flanders and Roubaix.

 

[Froome]

Tell me one thing. Why do you think Pogacar can't improve, specially when he did the Giro last year?

The Giro was just a easy training who ended working perfectly for him. The altitude training camp after the Giro was perfect, since he improved a lot after the Giro.

It doesn't make any sense thinking the Giro had a negative effect on pogacar regarding the Tour.

I thought in the beggining of last year, the Giro was a bad preparation for the Tour, but this is a new era, where the truths from the past, are the lies from the present.

 

[Froome]

I don't disagree that he probably has more. But if Pogacar is also better than last year that "more" should cover 7-8 minutes, which seems unlikely imo.

It may sound ridiculous, but I don't think Pogacar will reach last year's level, which may allow Vingegaard to close the gap and beat him. But if Pogacar improves, I don't think it's humanly possible to beat him.


Edit: This discussion would probably be more appropriate for "the duel thread", so if some of the mods decides to move the posts there, that's fine.

It is like a magic potion each year.

Nutrition getting better, better equipment, better training methods, and especially clinic issues, all together can give those improvements. I would be really surprised if they are all not better this year.

 

[YavorD]

It is like a magic potion each year.

Nutrition getting better, better equipment, better training methods, and especially clinic issues, all together can give those improvements. I would be really surprised if they are all not better this year.

,
Well, seems like I'm the only one who thinks they (Pogacar) won't be better. I guess we shall see.
I will either be the new prophet or the fool of the forum.

Edit: Perhaps I should do a mou and retire if I'm not right? Did he retire yet?

 

[Peyroteo94]

Because:
• What he did on PdB was ridiculous and I don't think it's humanly possible to be better than that (at least yet).
• I think the Giro was just a training ride for him, and a better preparation than Flanders and Roubaix.

Yes, it was but I fear you are wrong and that's just a wishful thinking. Giro was a training ride but he wasn't able to control every day like he normally does in an altitude training camp.

 

[Lorzenz08]

I think Pogacar will win this TdF, but he will not beat Vingegaard by more than 30 seconds at a time in any MTF stage.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Giro was a training ride but still isn't the best preparation. Vingegaard and Visma mentioned this as the reason to not race the Giro.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Giro was a training ride but still isn't the best preparation. Vingegaard and Visma mentioned this as the reason to not race the Giro.

TBH this year Pogacar has been less focused on stage-racing than last year. Doing 5-monument season (including Flandres + PR) isn't your classical TdF prep. schedule either.

 

[Peyroteo94]

TBH this year Pogacar has been less focused on stage-racing than last year. Doing 5-monument season (including Flandres + PR) isn't your classical TdF prep. schedule either.

He still had/has 10 weeks to prepare for the Tour. It isn't the same as preparing your season just to be in peak shape for the Tour but he still can be very good. And training for classics also give him endurance and think this will be important in the mountains. I think he never suffered like he did in PR (during 3 hours of racing. Of course he suffered more on Loze).

 

[Cycling111]

,
Well, seems like I'm the only one who thinks they (Pogacar) won't be better. I guess we shall see.
I will either be the new prophet or the fool of the forum.

Edit: Perhaps I should do a mou and retire if I'm not right? Did he retire yet?

The Giro isn't a training. It's always been considered a factor that complicates the Tour.
Furthermore, the Giro ends several weeks after Roubaix.

What Pogacar did with the classics is very brave because it's not the norm and also has a rival that competes very little (Vingegaard). But that doesn't mean the Giro is a training session.

 

[Peyroteo94]

What Pogacar showed in MSR gives me a clear indication he is better this season even if it isn't a mountain classic.

 

[YavorD]

The Giro isn't a training. It's always been considered a factor that complicates the Tour.
Furthermore, the Giro ends several weeks after Roubaix.

What Pogacar did with the classics is very brave because it's not the norm and also has a rival that competes very little (Vingegaard). But that doesn't mean the Giro is a training session.

I said that I think the Giro was a better preparation than the classics and I've made my point.
We'll know if I'm wrong in ~6 weeks.

 

[kn0s]

There is alot of talk about the 24 season and I have been thinking about it. I think the way the season played out, made it seem like he was much better than he actually was. Don't get me wrong he was probably the best he ever has been, but you have to look at the complete picture.

There are races he just wins, because he is the best allround road racer and because the races fit him perfectly. Like strade, lombardia and so on.

But his oppositionen in very many of his one day and stage races where just not great. You can't evaluate the level of the rider without prober competition. This spring season seems much more realistic, he is being put on the limit physically and tactically and he wins some and losses some.

All in all I think Pogi came out of 24 looking better then he was.