Tadej Pogacar and Mauro Giannetti

[Stablo]

What makes you so sure he isn't on the same program? He has all the hallmarks, like weight loss & power over 3 weeks, along with record watts. In my view we've seen a "3 way battle" in this TdF 2024 the same way the 2001 Tour de France was a 3 way battle between Lance, Ullrich & Beloki.

If he would have the same level of program he would be a lot closer to Poggie. Nothing ever has indicated to the direction that Poggie is somehow more naturally talented or that he had a higher ceiling, quite the opposite actually. In all other sports this is obvious, you can be good and rise to the top level aswell outside the "box" too, but the guys like Bolt, Messi, Ronaldo, Cheptegei, James, Jordan, Federer etc. etc. were always known from a young age and the other guys talentwise never came to their level. What makes cycling so different, if it isnt the level of programs, resources you are able to put on them and how far youre willing to push the level of cheating? Just like what Lance did and some of us knew then, but know its clear for all. The program was just on another level compared to the competition.

 

[meat puppet]

Going by LR numbers Pogi did similar (6,8w/kg 38min) to Riis Hautacam 1996 (6,9w/kg 35min) yesterday. Adjust the back-of-the-envelope as needed if the numbers are wrong. Or juxtapose to PdB, which I guess are better established (ie not just LR).

To tease out some of the implications the tucker piece that was posted on this forum earlier considers Riis' little stunt as an example: https://sportsscientists.com/2010/07/cycling-performance-what-is-possible/

Now sustaining 6,8w/kg costs around 82ml/kg/min. Assuming Riis / Pog has a high efficiency (23%, which is generous) and is able to sustain 85% of their vo2max this deep into the race (chronic fatigue) and a hard stage (acute fatigue), the model spits out an implied 96ml/kg/min vo2max. If we assume that they sustained 90%, the implied vo2max is only 91ml/kg/min, but sustaining 90% I don't buy. The reality will lie (sic) somewhere in between.

Also the 23% efficiency assumption is likely on the high side, so actually the implied vo2max numbers are likely higher.

Now in the exphis folklore 96-97ml/kg/min is the highest recorded value -- in a test. Surely we are to believe that riders achieve performances implying such numbers this deep in a GT.

IMO these kinds of plausibility checks were and are the intended use of w/kg calculations, at least if deployed in a critical way. Recently the mechanistic bases summarised very crudely above (discussed in more detail in the Tucker piece itself) have first of all been lost in translation. The numbers are taken to just stand for themselves, when in reality under the hood there are assumptions and the figures are about ranges. Secondly the IG generation has rendered high w/kg into a badge of honour. Alternatively it became a simple discursive weapon already during the sky era.

It is true that the basic tucker model is not very sensitive towards aero and all. But even at 24kmh aero is not gonna be a game changer.

Also IMHO this year's PdB was way more insane than the TT last year. No contest. Something to do with the fact that PdB is the most batshit performance thus far. Also Vinge's PdB is the more insane feat, IMOz when compared to the TT. Pog was already going down form wise, hence the ridiculous gap to him. Surely the PdB is to be topped next year.

Gonna need quite a portion of aero porridge to convince me that tech and nutrition are driving the numbers. Or that the tribal talk how X is more naturally (lol) talented than Y is the relevant story and angle here.

 

[Rackham]

I see People on here saying Jonas Vingegaard's ITT last year was more outrageous, but that's not the point. Vingegaard was outrageous for one race last year and still showed signs of weakness in Tour.
Compare that to Pogacar this year, he's dominated all season, won the Giro and now is dominating the Tour, he's not even had ONE bad day. He doesn't even look tired where's the other riders all f*cked.
I was a massive Pog fan boy (Look at my profile pic), and I went mad on here last year when Vingegaard did that ITT, but this year Pogacar has been so outrageous it's actually laughable.

This is revisionism though.

All things being equal without team interference in the Vuelta, it's highly probably Vingegaard's 2023 season would have been victories in Itzulia-Dauphiné-Tour de France-Vuelta.

Hooray for believability.

 

[Stablo]

The same I have been trying to say. It's not abt the Tour only, even it aswell is on a different level than Vinges last year. It the whole season being ridicilous winning everything he wants at will not looking even remotely spend/tired and not even weaker days all season!!

 

[Stablo]

The irony of your comment is noteworthy. Perhaps that’s because Pog is simply a better all rounded talent - doping or not. Your last sentence is not what any quick research reveals. When Pog joined UAE he was 19 years old and still growing. His palmares at a very young age shamed the two year older Vingegaard who was a nobody before he momentarily dropped Pog on Ventoux before losing that Tour by over 5 minutes.

Amazing how lucky Visma were to find him to slot in after Roglic crashed out in 2021. A super responding jackpot to help set the record straight after Pog stole the 2020 TdF right out of their expectant grasp.

Yes Vinges rise from the talent perspective is even weirder than Poggies. Of course he has never been on the level of monsters domination, but still its weird.

 

[Cookster15]

at some point it does get subjective about what doping ride is more absurd than what. like what was more absurd, Indurain at Luxembourg, or Indurain at La Plange? does it make too much sense to rank them?

But Vingegaard’s fan club claimed Combloux stage 16 was better than 78Kg Indurain Luxembourg in the EPO era. Wrap your mind around the absurdity of that. It’s the double standards and lack of objectivity that grate.

ok let's be fair the Combloux TT got a ton of attention, between the result, Vingegaard's quote saying he was putting out such good numbers he thought his powermeter was broken, and Richard Plugge immediately trying to distract everyone by insulting French teams for no reason

it got a ton of attention here. But in the MSM not so much. Craziest thing I’ve seen since the EPO era.

 

[Rackham]

I'll take a wild guess I say the vast majority of people across the cycling world who lit up with rage at the obvious doping yesterday would cry tears of joy if Vinge goes on a solo Landisfroomey-esque raid today & puts 5 minutes into everyone.

Lance Armstrong (the b*stard) epitomized this phenomenon yesterday by having a meltdown... which was really just because they were rooting for their home boy Jorgenson & were bitter Pog beat him.

I guess the part which I'm fine with is people enjoying the spectacle. I mean I've been watching doped Tours since I was a kid so this is no different. But what really irritates is the hypocrisy & the 'my guy cheats less than that other bad dude" which is the baseline for most of the conversations about doping these days.

Would it really have been 'fairer' to have Vingegaard win a third straight TdF after spending nearly two weeks in an ICU back in April? I don't think so.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

But Vingegaard’s fan club claimed Combloux stage 16 was better than 78Kg Indurain Luxembourg in the EPO era. Wrap your mind around the absurdity of that. It’s the double standards and lack of objectivity that grate.

It definitely wasn't only his fanclub that claimed that, considering the gaps weren't much smaller than in Luxembourg even though the time trial was only a third of the distance/less than half of time duration.

 

[Slavique Nuke]

But on the other hand it's still a three week race, which is extremely physically taxing regardless of how hard the stages are. The level of competition doesn't really matter either since Pogacar didn't exactly measure his effort to guarantee the win and stay as fresh as possible for the rest of the season. Pogacar rode like a lunatic and took six stages and put ten minutes into second best, going extra hard in the final week when the win was all but guaranteed anyway as long as he stayed out of trouble.

Not that it really matters. His performances would be beyond suspicious even without factoring in the Giro.

If he had been a lunatic he would have won more than 10 stages as the route was very favourable to him, not just six. 10 minutes against Dani Martinez is almost nothing, much stronger riders get beaten by much bigger margins in the Tour.

 

[Slavique Nuke]

Yeah I dno, its taking numbers to the absolute extreme and lose all of your credibility as a analyst putting numbers into context. Deplorable work quite frankly

What I don't think is an extreme is claming a rider like Jorgenson would win a race like TdF 2019 at this level for example

Jorgenson won Paris-Nice, almost won the Dauphine and was stronger than Roglic in the end. If Vingegaard hadn't started the Tour and Jorgenson was in a protected position, he would have easily been on the podium, around Remco.

 

[Stablo]

I guess the part which I'm fine with is people enjoying the spectacle. I mean I've been watching doped Tours since I was a kid so this is no different. But what really irritates is the hypocrisy & the 'my guy cheats less than that other bad dude" which is the baseline for most of the conversations about doping these days.

It's the truth thought, that some riders&teams have a better and more sophisticated program. There are numerous examples in cycling's history. For me it is clear that UAE&Visma have better or some kind of new dope or better program compared to many other teams. This year UAE (team sponsored de facto by a sportwashing dictatorship) has upped the game even more. Of course I dont have the evidence and nobody can prove it yet, but such was the case with Lance&US Postal aswell. For myself I once again cant enjoy the "spectacle" cause its so absurd, this year and Poggie-boy has been the icing on the cake🤢🤮IF Remco would start dominating like especially Poggie(&Vingo) which should be also possible considering the talent, I would take the piss too and say screw this, not even close to normal.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Pogacar under San Milan = 2013 Contador = CLEANZ?!

 

[fbjim]

Pogacar under San Milan = 2013 Contador = CLEANZ?!

contador has always been a clean lad who was railroaded by VERY JEALOUS british press skybots.

 

[Netserk]

Did you see Vingegaard doing career high numbers and getting dropped like a brick?

Alps is due to fading. But VLAB were hella confident for Plateau de Beille and they were absolutely mindblown.

Meawhile fugging Pollit is dropping GC riders on the biggest climb of the race while working the valleys before

Yeah, and I expect Vingegaard to close the gap next year if he can prepare himself optimally. Draft and pacing were half the difference on Beille.

Politt's performances are also overrated. He did Tourmalet at ~5.5, something I think Hooydonck would also have been able to do this year if he were active and healthy. On Vars, Politt took it easy and was dropped when they hammered the steep part, returning at his own pace. Then he could empty the tank on Bonette, dropping those who had to last the whole way. From what I've seen, he did no better yesterday than in the Pyrenees.

I still can't make sense of Plateau de Beille. Pogi, Evenepoel and Vingegaard all took a jump over the day before, expecting to wield a weapon which the others didn't. It's a puzzling timing for such a massive boost.

 

[Blobs]

Now that fatigue is a thing of the past for Pogi, he should probably try to go for all three GT's, all 5 monuments and the WCRR and WCTT next season.

Last year that would have been crazy talk, but from what he's shown this season, I think he would have a good chance of pulling off the win in every single race. Seemingly effortlessly putting out the greatest watts of anyone ever in the second half of the Tour, after winning the Giro by 10 minutes, winning a monument, and finishing 3rd in another. But why stop there? The full season big race sweep would really cement his legacy as the greatest, and with fatigue no longer an issue, each race would just be great training for the next.

 

[noob]

The more I think about it I end up here;

What difference does it make how you beat Pantani? If it's a shaved bike or a shot in veins? How is it still about the legs???

Nope, if you change the materials in a race it's not about the cyclist but about the materials. So the cyclist shouldn't be praised for it in either case. A shot in veins at least goes into the cyclist while an improved bike has zero to do with the cyclist.

The reason I don't prefer a shot in veins has to do with other concerns such as resources, risks or abuse. But functionally there's no difference. Calling one thing cheating and the other not is illogical at least if it's about beating a past record. If you can't ride a bike well without needing a ton of money it's not about riding a bike well. It's about the money.



View: https://youtu.be/YcXMhwF4EtQ?si=YiRN6snWGG-K8gwo

 

[Froome]

Remco is improved but nowhere as much as you think. He was pulling 6.5 w/kg at the tour of Norway in 2022. for 30 minute 23 second climb and did the last half of the climb at 6.85. w/kg

The circumstances are not comparable. Doing that on a unipuerto stage of Tour norway is very different of doing something similar in a mountain stage during 40 minutes, in the stage 18 of the Tour after La bonette.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Yeah, and I expect Vingegaard to close the gap next year if he can prepare himself optimally. Draft and pacing were half the difference on Beille.

Politt's performances are also overrated. He did Tourmalet at ~5.5, something I think Hooydonck would also have been able to do this year if he were active and healthy. On Vars, Politt took it easy and was dropped when they hammered the steep part, returning at his own pace. Then he could empty the tank on Bonette, dropping those who had to last the whole way. From what I've seen, he did no better yesterday than in the Pyrenees.

I still can't make sense of Plateau de Beille. Pogi, Evenepoel and Vingegaard all took a jump over the day before, expecting to wield a weapon which the others didn't. It's a puzzling timing for such a massive boost.

Politt is an 80kg guy, but the energy is the same as Laporte and van Haydonkey riding down breakaways filled with climbers on the climbs last year.

 

[fbjim]

The more I think about it I end up here;

What difference does it make how you beat Pantani? If it's a shaved bike or a shot in veins? How is it still about the legs???

Nope, if you change the materials in a race it's not about the cyclist but about the materials. So the cyclist shouldn't be praised for it in either case. A shot in veins at least goes into the cyclist while an improved bike has zero to do with the cyclist.

The reason I don't prefer a shot in veins has to do with other concerns such as resources, risks or abuse. But functionally there's no difference. Calling one thing cheating and the other not is illogical at least if it's about beating a past record. If you can't ride a bike well without needing a ton of money it's not about riding a bike well. It's about the money.



View: https://youtu.be/YcXMhwF4EtQ?si=YiRN6snWGG-K8gwo

yeah and that's why pantani's record should be stripped from the books in favor of those guys who ran before derailleurs were legal

 

[Nick2413]

Now that fatigue is a thing of the past for Pogi, he should probably try to go for all three GT's, all 5 monuments and the WCRR and WCTT next season.

Last year that would have been crazy talk, but from what he's shown this season, I think he would have a good chance of pulling off the win in every single race. Seemingly effortlessly putting out the greatest watts of anyone ever in the second half of the Tour, after winning the Giro by 10 minutes, winning a monument, and finishing 3rd in another. But why stop there? The full season big race sweep would really cement his legacy as the greatest, and with fatigue no longer an issue, each race would just be great training for the next.

Don’t worry, he’ll have his usual post Tour slump when he goes off everything for a couple weeks and everyone will think he’s human again and that the double took a lot of of him.

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah, and I expect Vingegaard to close the gap next year if he can prepare himself optimally. Draft and pacing were half the difference on Beille.

Politt's performances are also overrated. He did Tourmalet at ~5.5, something I think Hooydonck would also have been able to do this year if he were active and healthy. On Vars, Politt took it easy and was dropped when they hammered the steep part, returning at his own pace. Then he could empty the tank on Bonette, dropping those who had to last the whole way. From what I've seen, he did no better yesterday than in the Pyrenees.

I still can't make sense of Plateau de Beille. Pogi, Evenepoel and Vingegaard all took a jump over the day before, expecting to wield a weapon which the others didn't. It's a puzzling timing for such a massive boost.

Beille to me makes sense when assuming fatigue resistamce is so high right now the top dudes just plop out near fresh W/kg starting a climb ager 4000m. And I wonder if the extended flat run in offering better recovery is much more important than the higher total amount of climbing.

Secondly, I dont remember the pacing split of Plat d'Adet, but I suspect the starting pace was too slow, and that perhaps even Pogi doesnt go way over 7W/kg all that easily to compensate.

Lastly could also be compound effect of taking whatever short term miracle drug 2 days in a row

 

[noob]

yeah and that's why pantani's record should be stripped from the books in favor of those guys who ran before derailleurs were legal

Logically yes! Now there's nothing to strip anyway as records are just informal, but obviously if the bike is changed is not on the performance of the cyclist itself.

 

[fbjim]

for all the bad the UCI has and has not done, they have done a reasonable job at keeping the sport from becoming a fight between bike manufacturers. absolutely nobody on earth thinks Pogacar won because he has a Colnago instead of a Cervelo, except maybe deranged Italiophiles.

like have you seen the kind of crap UCI-illegal tri-bikes look like now

 

[fbjim]

Anyway as a deranged italiophile myself imagine society if Fabio Aru had gotten the pogi-gear

 

[AnotherArmChair]

Its all well and good to admit there is some performance enhancing going on at UAE and/or Visma and we should just enjoy the spectacle instead

But what about the clean riders in the French team who train morning noon and night to come 15th and never win anything. What about the other talent in smaller teams. Sky, now Ineos were burnt by the parliamentary committee hearing and the jiffy bag saga and pulled back and it shows

And whatever UAE are up to (carbon monoxide breathing ? whatever that is) who is to say its not dangerous in the long run. Wasn't that the reason to ban PED in the first place

Its rich that Lance was quoting Ferrari on the Move last night when he was winning by 4minutes and was told to reign it in as he was drawing attention to himself. Saying the same thing to Pog just shows what he believes is happening and whatever you think of him if anyone knows he knows