Tadej Pogacar and Mauro Giannetti

[ppanther92]

Just wondering...will one day people look back at Pogi and say he's selfish, only thought of himself, etc like things that were said about Lance?

You realize this things are said about Lance for totally different things than winning against Ullrich, right?

 

[Cassirer]

Yes, fully expecting this as well. And where it goes from there - who knows… But ofc UAE and Pogacar will have in their mind that Vingegaard stayed relatively close against the best Pogacar ever, coming back from injury. And Visma and Vingegaard saw that previous Tour winning numbers are not good enough to win against this version of Pogacar. So the arms race will be open.

If we say that riders are aware of what happens (and they must be at least to some degree) maybe them getting scared will put a cap on the arms race. Of course there will always be riders willing to sacrifice their health for winning, but I can see especially a family guy like vinge say at some point "nope, that's just not worth it" and be done with it. Dumoulin comes to mind.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

If we say that riders are aware of what happens (and they must be at least to some degree) maybe them getting scared will put a cap on the arms race. Of course there will always be riders willing to sacrifice their health for winning, but I can see especially a family guy like vinge say at some point "nope, that's just not worth it" and be done with it. Dumoulin comes to mind.

The family man didn't hesitate to go from zero form to 6.7 w/kg on PdB in 8 weeks and his family didn't prevent him from displaying one of the most thermonuclear TTs of all time (Combloux last year).

 

[Cassirer]

The family man didn't hesitate to go from zero form to 6.7 w/kg on PdB in 8 weeks and his family didn't prevent him from displaying one of the most thermonuclear TTs of all time (Combloux last year).

I agree, the past does not give much indication towards him pulling the plug. Just saying I wouldn't find such a realisation too surprising, especially after this tour ("I did all this and it wasn't enough!? F it"). Obviously we won't be able to know anyways.

 

[Pannenkooky]

You realize this things are said about Lance for totally different things than winning against Ullrich, right?

I am aware of what things are said about Lance. He's an ***, he's a narcissist. What I've noticed about Pogi is most of his wins are due to solo attacks not group tactics...that I'm aware of.

 

[Pannenkooky]

When did he ‘almost kick Vingo when he’s down.’ Vingo never crashed or had a mechanical problem during the tour. Are you saying that because Vingo wasn’t as good this year because of the spring crash and therefore Pog should have been more kind and didn’t need to attack him so often?

Stage 11 and all the ruthless attacking. Sure you don't "let someone else have a turn." And at the same time, I think that ruthless behavior gets noticed in the peloton. Merckx was called Cannibale, not something nicer

 

[Pannenkooky]

@Pannenkooky

This year won't help Pogi regarding popularity, that's for sure. In the previous 2 years at least he was defeated in July so the impression was different. This year he wins almost everything he wants and in an absolutely dominant fashion on top of that. Some teams weren't happy about him winning so many stages at the Giro (there was some talk about sharing the pie). At the Tour the situation was a bit different (he took away stages from Visma-LAB mostly) but UAE was responsible (at least partially) for chasing down breakaways of course.

The popularity thing, that's exactly what I'm getting at.

 

[Pannenkooky]

Another thought, what do you think is going through the minds of WADA right now? Shut up and don't ruin anything?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Stage 11 and all the ruthless attacking. Sure you don't "let someone else have a turn." And at the same time, I think that ruthless behavior gets noticed in the peloton. Merckx was called Cannibale, not something nicer

I don't think Pogacar owes to Vingegaard and Visma anything else than ruthless attacking. As for other lesser riders, that's a different story of course.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Another thought, what do you think is going through the minds of WADA right now? Shut up and don't ruin anything?

Heavily depends on what's actually going on. Just old blood methods mastered to perfection or something completely new. Maybe they don't know themselves!

 

[Cookster15]

Another thought, what do you think is going through the minds of WADA right now? Shut up and don't ruin anything?

What was going through their minds in 2022 and 2023? Was anyone asking how a rider with an unremarkable palmeres in June 2021 suddenly beats Pogacar who everyone thought was unbeatable in 2021?

 

[Monoxidator]

What was going through their minds in 2022 and 2023? Was anyone asking how a rider with an unremarkable palmeres in June 2021 suddenly beats Pogacar who everyone thought was unbeatable in 2021?

WADA is impotent and can't catch anything of any sophistication.

 

[Cookster15]

WADA is impotent and can't catch anything of any sophistication.

Agree, and so is the UCI. That's how both Visma and UAE have gotten away with it. Now the other teams will be playing catch up.

 

[Pannenkooky]

Agree, and so is the UCI. That's how both Visma and UAE have gotten away with it. Now the other teams will be playing catch up.

100% agree

 

[Cookster15]

The other thing we are forgetting here are the lawyers. My understanding is that lawyers are what has diluted the effectiveness of the UCI biological passport. The classic example was Juan Cobo. Won the 2011 Vuelta (ahead of Froome). But Cobo wasn’t snared by UCI passport anomalies until 2019. 8 years is absurd. An effective deterrent would have caught him the day after that Vuelta. Like an EPO or steroids test. Another example were the plasticizers detected in Contador’s blood at the 2010 TdF. Not admissible evidence according to the lawyers, when that most likely indicated reinfusing his own blood. Instead Contador was nailed for a trace substance with no minimum limit.

The onus of proof for the biological passport seems set too high. It seems easier to convict criminals of murder than to nail athletes who, via team doctors, are in all likelihood manipulating their blood* to maximise aerobic endurance.

*I’ve asked in the Clinic recently what is being used to achieve the levels we are seeing. The general consensus still seems to be oxygen vector doping - blood manipulation. I don’t believe they are using a new drug or substance. Any such drug or substance would be susceptible to detection and also possible retrospective testing.

But I do think both UAE and Visma are pushing the limits of what they know they can legally get away with. Other teams will be working hard to catch up.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Bio passport took a big hit when Kreuziger successfully fought and won. Not many at the time thought Kreuziger had a chance.

 

[ppanther92]

Another thought, what do you think is going through the minds of WADA right now? Shut up and don't ruin anything?

Probably.

But under the hypothesis its indeed mainly Carbon Monoxide inhaling, there is literally also no way to test for it (apart from strange values in the bio passport - but in that see the next post. Seems to be a toothless tool nowadays)

 

[ppanther92]

Bio passport took a big hit when Kreuziger successfully fought and won. Not many at the time thought Kreuziger had a chance.

And TUE limits with Froome’s Salbutamol case.

But I agree, initially the bio passport had some cases (even higher profile) but this seems to be dead totally.

 

[Nomad]

The other thing we are forgetting here are the lawyers. My understanding is that lawyers are what has diluted the effectiveness of the UCI biological passport. The classic example was Juan Cobo. Won the 2011 Vuelta (ahead of Froome). But Cobo wasn’t snared by UCI passport anomalies until 2019. 8 years is absurd. An effective deterrent would have caught him the day after that Vuelta. Like an EPO or steroids test. Another example were the plasticizers detected in Contador’s blood at the 2010 TdF. Not admissible evidence according to the lawyers, when that most likely indicated reinfusing his own blood. Instead Contador was nailed for a trace substance with no minimum limit.

The onus of proof for the biological passport seems set too high. It seems easier to convict criminals of murder than to nail athletes who, via team doctors, are in all likelihood manipulating their blood* to maximise aerobic endurance.

*I’ve asked in the Clinic recently what is being used to achieve the levels we are seeing. The general consensus still seems to be oxygen vector doping - blood manipulation. I don’t believe they are using a new drug or substance. Any such drug or substance would be susceptible to detection and also possible retrospective testing.

But I do think both UAE and Visma are pushing the limits of what they know they can legally get away with. Other teams will be working hard to catch up.

The Cobo case is strange indeed. According to UCI Anti-Doping Tribunal report, the ABP hematological-anomalies occurred during both the 2009 & 2011 Vuelta, but were not reviewed & evaluated by the anti-doping expert panel until July, 2014

The 09 Vuelta showed a high OFF-score sequence while the 2011 Vuelta show variability of RET% - both at 99% specificity (less than 1 in 100 chance of being undoped). The expert panel concluded that in their opinion it was highly likely the anomalies were the result of the prohibited use of an ESA or method (transfusions).

According to the report, Cobo was sent an anti-doping rule violation notice in Aug, 2014 detailing the expert panel's findings, and given the opportunity to respond & offer an explanation. Typically athletes will try to explain the anomalies due to multiple reasons (e.g. altitude training/hypoxia exposure, dehydration, illness, prescription medication use, sample collection concerns, etc). This is where the expert panel will have to further evaluate & render a final decision - which can take quite a bit of time in many cases.

Cobo responded back with a list of explanations that needed to be reviewed. However, the report states that Cobo was "granted multiple extensions of deadlines failing to respond" where the Tribunal gave it's final decision not until 2019.

The report doesn't address the issue of the 3 year delay when the anti-doping experts evaluated the anomalies from the two Vueltas. Usually when there's an abnormal value or sequence of values on the ABP, it's immediately flagged by the system & forwarded to the anti-doping experts for evaluation. Why the anomalies weren't flagged during the Vueltas or why the delay if they were flagged is still a mystery.

Here's the UCI Tribunal hearing report (PDF). It's very interesting on the timeline & the sequence of the events that led to Cobo's ban & DQ of both the 2009 & 2011 Vuelta results:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://assets.ctfassets.net/761l7gh5x5an/5wlp6ONQYpW2Fr0oN5WD7i/1a40d70d92dd9c9cb9e346c190fd911b/uci-adt-03.2018-uci-v.-mr-juan-jos--cobo-acebo.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjw94PBtdaHAxX5DzQIHZnTHuMQFnoECBUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1zzRk9HEMAMtYndZCLF68b

 

[Nomad]

*I’ve asked in the Clinic recently what is being used to achieve the levels we are seeing. The general consensus still seems to be oxygen vector doping - blood manipulation. I don’t believe they are using a new drug or substance. Any such drug or substance would be susceptible to detection and also possible retrospective testing.

Do you think it's just simple transfusions?

With 02-vector doping, that would be the only viable method since the detection window of EPO microdosing has now been extended to ~12 hours. So the days of injecting during the nighttime hours (10:00 pm - 6:00 am) where WADA can't test is long gone.

And if it's not biological doping then perhaps it would have to be some technologically advanced mechanical enhancements?

 

[meat puppet]

The passport had loopholes from the go. But to a point I guess it put a cap on manipulations that could sustain the more extreme performances we are seeing now. My guess is that the institutional obstacle course the athletes faced was more apt pre Covid. Hence the relatively tame performances (not synonym with clean). Now the setup is breached, overridden, what have you.

Of the experts consulted when the passport was designed, especially Ashenden was quite vocal about the flaws. Google will find some of the discussions and these matters were also a topic here in the clinic.

As nomad's post pointed out, the off score was designed so that a combination of retic and hb dynamic had to score a 99% probability to be "unnatural" and thus off limits. Of course one wants to hedge a bit to avoid false positives, but the passport's design left a lot leeway to both athletes&docs and lawyers. This was essentially Ashenden's criticism.

As for how we assess and evaluate extreme performances, the social circumstances determine the contents of consciousness, not the other way round. What might have seen tragically farcical in the context where the passport was introduced seems to be just uncritically celebrated today. At the moment it seems that legacy stories about superhuman meme riders > competition that may involve uncertainty and ebbs and flows. If so, the assessment just flows from there.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

The passport had loopholes from the go. But to a point I guess it put a cap on manipulations that could sustain the more extreme performances we are seeing now. My guess is that the institutional obstacle course the athletes faced was more apt pre Covid. Hence the relatively tame performances (not synonym with clean). Now the setup is breached, overridden, what have you.

Of the experts consulted when the passport was designed, especially Ashenden was quite vocal about the flaws. Google will find some of the discussions and these matters were also a topic here in the clinic.

As nomad's post pointed out, the off score was designed so that a combination of retic and hb dynamic had to score a 99% probability to be "unnatural" and thus off limits. Of course one wants to hedge a bit to avoid false positives, but the passport's design left a lot leeway to both athletes&docs and lawyers. This was essentially Ashenden's criticism.

As for how we assess and evaluate extreme performances, the social circumstances determine the contents of consciousness, not the other way round. What might have seen tragically farcical in the context where the passport was introduced seems to be just uncritically celebrated today. At the moment it seems that legacy stories about superhuman meme riders > competition that may involve uncertainty and ebbs and flows. If so, the assessment just flows from there.

To me it's really interesting how historically extreme performances are achieved without violating the passport (assuming that blood doping is still the major weapon in cycling). One would think that upping engine power to such incredible values isn't possible without altering blood parameters in a significant way (like they used to do in the 90s).

If blood doping is still the main topic they must have superb methods to precisely alter blood values within those constraints and obtain substantial performance optimization at the same time. Optimization with constraints isn't always easy even in computer science, let alone in case of living organisms (and blood)! From what you wrote I get that the high score (to avoid false positives) leaves large room for manipulation (still, it worked better in 2010s so some big advancements must have been made).

 

[Extinction]

Politt spills the beans in the best podcast in ages: "Tadej said: if we win this one too, they’re going to get angry"

The cycling world is overflowing with podcasts, with

www.idlprocycling.com

 

[Invicituz]

Politt spills the beans in the best podcast in ages: "Tadej said: if we win this one too, they’re going to get angry"

The cycling world is overflowing with podcasts, with

www.idlprocycling.com

Except that Pantani's Bianchi is reported to have weighed 6.96kgs not 9kgs, and Pogačar’s Colnago 7.3kgs:

Comparing the Tour de France bikes that won on the Plateau de Beille in 1998 and 2024: Marco Pantani's Bianchi Mega Pro XL vs Tadej Pogačar's Colnago V4Rs

A lot has changed in cycling in the last 26 years, with Tadej Pogačar's record-breaking summit of one of the Tour de France's legendary climbs providing us with a great excuse to do a bike tech deep-dive

road.cc

 

[Extinction]

Except that Pantani's Bianchi is reported to have weighed 6.96kgs not 9kgs, and Pogačar’s Colnago 7.3kgs:

Comparing the Tour de France bikes that won on the Plateau de Beille in 1998 and 2024: Marco Pantani's Bianchi Mega Pro XL vs Tadej Pogačar's Colnago V4Rs

A lot has changed in cycling in the last 26 years, with Tadej Pogačar's record-breaking summit of one of the Tour de France's legendary climbs providing us with a great excuse to do a bike tech deep-dive

road.cc

Yea, everybody knows Politt is full of sh-it, but he can sell his nonsense to the suckers and doting fanbase.