This Tour has felt like a live science experiment between the top 2 guys. Basing strategies off known qualities, taking notes each day and modifying the formula accordingly. More than even most years, whoever wins will be the true champion off a doping chess match.
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- Jul 7, 2013
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It wasn't just a sprint. It was an intense effort (around 1 minute long) at the end of a hard-ridden, long climb. Vingegaard has a ridiculous VO2max, which helps here as well (look how he dropped the rest). It's not only about anaerobic capacity (which is big in Pog case OFC but Vinge is not bad either). Plus, riding in Pog's slipstream helped as well.
- May 29, 2011
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Every day after the resurrection on the Tourmalet stage Pog has been slightly less formidable comparatively, IMHO. The trend reached culmination point today. That may be just cumulative fatigue, and the expectation still is that he should get better. But the trajectory would also fit panicking at JV's early level and slamming a bag of RBCs early to remain competitive. Does he have another one and moreover does he have the leeway to take it? What's Vinge's play?
Putting it mildly, the performances of the two merit suspicion.
Putting it mildly, the performances of the two merit suspicion.
- May 14, 2011
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Thanks for this reply. If they are resorting to blood bags I am sure these two won't get caught. But I need to question the assumed logic to game the blood passport? As you state the passport tracks the ratio between infant and mature red cells. This means the passport can also detect autologous blood doping.
But as you also imply, the passport tracks the absolute level of hematocrit (HCT). I can't see how EPO microdosing can hide this? Gaining significant hb mass during a grand tour from infusing a bag should trigger a red light from a sudden increase in HCT?? And don't forget the passport tracks parameters against the rider's historical data - not just during the TdF.
But I also think Jumbo's arrogance is because they believe they have this all worked out. I know Gianetti is likely in an arms race with Jumbo's doctors but I really hope Pog can wipe the smirk from their faces again like 2020. I was cheering for Roglic back then. I am not cheering for Vingegaard this time.
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- May 29, 2011
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Thanks, I was paraphrasing this interview with Michael Ashenden from memory. It's been a while I read - it had been taken out from the original website and I had to wayback machine it to refresh my memory.
Ashenden was one of the key experts and critics of the passport during the late 2000s and early 2010s. I think I did not do too badly paraphrasing the broad outlines. His explanation involves the same elements (transfusions and microdosing), but it's still best you hear it straight from him.
I think the entire interview is a good read but the most relevant passage are probably these:
"Because the Passport looks at haemoglobin levels and reticulocytes, it becomes necessary to mask both. You need different strategies to mask them. So for example, whereas flooding the circulation with plasma will hide an excess of red cells, this has no effect whatsoever on reticulocytes because they are measured as a percentage which is therefore immune to changes in concentration. Instead, their levels are dictated by bone marrow activity, which is driven by erythropoietin levels in the bloodstream. When you withdraw blood, the body responds by increasing erythropoietin which causes the reticulocyte levels to spike up. When you reinfuse blood, the erythropoietin levels decrease and after some days lag the reticulocyte levels drop.
So the mobile lab which Floyd described was only one part of the puzzle. Its not enough to know that your reticulocytes have dropped suspiciously, you must be able to do something about it or else risk being flagged by the Passport. And whereas the intervention for red cells is plasma, the intervention for reticulocytes is microdoses of EPO. Those injections are carefully timed and titrated to ensure that the reticulocyte levels are neither too high nor too low."
And:
But yes, in general terms, whereas the early 2000’s most of us considered that EPO was used to boost performance, nowadays we believe that EPO is an important masking tool whilst transfusions provide the ‘engine’ boost, if you like.
Now, my claim is not that what Ashenden describes in the interview from a fairly long time ago in any way represents the best (worst) current practices. But I think he illustrates how much the door was open back then.
Unless I am mistaken, the passport's basic design remains the same. If its blood module has changed, I have missed it. If it has not, my bet is that the door is more open now, that is, people know how to game it better. This might help partially explain the performances we are seeing.
The passport is basically a probability device. To avoid litigation processes from false positives, the reticulocyte-mature RBC combination limits that would actually flag the software were set fairly loose. Ashenden and other experts complained about this constantly back then. For instance, Mr. Armstrong's wildly fluctuating profile from the TDF 2009, which moreover differed significantly from his 2009 Giro profile, did not produce flags. These profiles, among others, were discussed here in the clinic at the time.
If the two are doping, I hope they are both caught. The arms race is the problem. No good and bad dopers around, just dopers.
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- May 14, 2011
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If what you claim is true (passport is a probability device) then it dismays me greatly that wildly fluctuating profiles during a grand tour are not enough for conviction. From a science / probability perspective it is virtually certain Armstrong doped. I mean what else could have caused those fluctuations? Damn lawyers 
Pogacar's doping annoys the hell out of me because of the ridiculous nature of his win on Planche des Belles Filles. Roglic had a huge time advantage going into that (yes, I know Roglic was doping too). At the end of that TT, Roglic looked physically dead, like he needed medical assistance. Pogacar looked like had just been out for a casual walk, and he could have gone on for another hour without breaking a sweat. It was beyond a farce.
Last year, JV jumped Pogacar on one stage, gained a bunch of time, and then every stage after that, Pogacar finished ahead of JV, but TP could never quite recoup all the time. (Yes, I know that JV is doping too). TP pretending to attack JV in the Paris finale last year was a total douche move, no other way to spin that.
This year is pretty much the same script as last year. JV somehow gained time on TP on one stage, and then every other stage since, TP finishes ahead but can't quite gain all the time back (yet).
My question is, we still have an individual TT left. Shouldn't TP be able to blow JV away in that? I mean, they are fighting for a second in the mountains, but in the ITT, TP could put a minute into JV based on what we saw on PdBF before. I imagine TP will take the yellow after the ITT, and that will be the end of race.
All in all, cycling has become a total farce yet again. Why would any other team bother to waste a GC guy in a grand state race if TP or JV are in the race? If they aren't going to stop the obvious doping of UAE and Jumbo, then I guess I hope the other teams develop a doping program such that TP doesn't easily win every major race by a stupid margin.
Disclaimer: Yes, I hate Pogacar. I find him blatant and arrogant with his doping to a level that we haven't seen since Lance Armstrong.
Last year, JV jumped Pogacar on one stage, gained a bunch of time, and then every stage after that, Pogacar finished ahead of JV, but TP could never quite recoup all the time. (Yes, I know that JV is doping too). TP pretending to attack JV in the Paris finale last year was a total douche move, no other way to spin that.
This year is pretty much the same script as last year. JV somehow gained time on TP on one stage, and then every other stage since, TP finishes ahead but can't quite gain all the time back (yet).
My question is, we still have an individual TT left. Shouldn't TP be able to blow JV away in that? I mean, they are fighting for a second in the mountains, but in the ITT, TP could put a minute into JV based on what we saw on PdBF before. I imagine TP will take the yellow after the ITT, and that will be the end of race.
All in all, cycling has become a total farce yet again. Why would any other team bother to waste a GC guy in a grand state race if TP or JV are in the race? If they aren't going to stop the obvious doping of UAE and Jumbo, then I guess I hope the other teams develop a doping program such that TP doesn't easily win every major race by a stupid margin.
Disclaimer: Yes, I hate Pogacar. I find him blatant and arrogant with his doping to a level that we haven't seen since Lance Armstrong.
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https://cyclinguptodate.com/cycling...-pogacar-fed-up-by-questions-regarding-doping
After race leader Jonas Vingegaard tackled some tough questions regarding doping head-on as the Tour de France reached its second rest, his arch-rival Tadej Pogacar has now also been posed similar questions.
“I get that question every year in the Tour," the UAE Team Emirates leader and former two-time Tour de France winner laments after a question about his cleanliness from a Danish reporter. "We do ride fast. With the background of the sport, I understand that those questions are asked. Some people kind of get stuck in that."
No denial - just the deflection of "the history of the sport" comment.
Pogacar has seemingly been at 100% since February and apart from one day at the Tour has not had a bad day, even with busting his wrist.
After race leader Jonas Vingegaard tackled some tough questions regarding doping head-on as the Tour de France reached its second rest, his arch-rival Tadej Pogacar has now also been posed similar questions.
“I get that question every year in the Tour," the UAE Team Emirates leader and former two-time Tour de France winner laments after a question about his cleanliness from a Danish reporter. "We do ride fast. With the background of the sport, I understand that those questions are asked. Some people kind of get stuck in that."
No denial - just the deflection of "the history of the sport" comment.
Pogacar has seemingly been at 100% since February and apart from one day at the Tour has not had a bad day, even with busting his wrist.
- Jan 8, 2020
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So you've got a beef with Vingeggard (but not Roglic) at Jumbo, while Pog at UAE is praiseworthy? Makes sense. Are you Slovenian? A Viking hater? When Pog bowed for an encore in that self-congratulatory gesture on PdBF, he made a mockery of the sport. And yet Jumbo is the more arrogant? UAE and Gianetti are the more commendable? Truly fandom is an illogical thing. The type of numbers Pog is putting up in his improbable attacks are either going to be his own undoing or the sport's. At least there is a Vingeggard out there to put up a resistance, but mitochondrial stimulants (ie genetic doping) and keytones are here to stay.
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- May 14, 2011
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None of the above. You are exactly the same to defend Vingegaard - deflection. I have made it clear I know Pogacar dopes. The arms race. It would be good if they both got popped.
- Jan 8, 2020
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How is what I wrote even remotely similar to your "hoping Pog can wipe a smirk" from Jumbo's arrogant face? And while once rooting for Rog, but somehow deploring Vingeggard? What could the Dane have possibly done that's any more cringeworthy than Pog (or Rog for that matter)? And I've not defended Vingeggard, but only said thank goodness he's around or else we'd only get Pogi antics (sticking tongue out mockery and taunting bows to the crowds). He's worse than even the Cobra, because he's a fake nice guy. At least Ricco spared us the nice guy hypocrisy.
- May 29, 2011
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Again, not the newest link, but Ross Tucker explains the basic design here: https://sportsscientists.com/2011/03/the-biological-passport-legal-scientific-and-performance-views/If what you claim is true (passport is a probability device) then it dismays me greatly that wildly fluctuating profiles during a grand tour are not enough for conviction. From a science / probability perspective it is virtually certain Armstrong doped. I mean what else could have caused those fluctuations? Damn lawyers
Many experts said Armstrong's profile stank having manually reviewed what was available in the public domain. Some defended him, too. He put the data or parts of it online himself if my memory serves, to prove he was not doping. The key is that the software itself didn't flag it, which says it all, really.
(The juxtaposition of manual and software review of the passport data may not be entirely accurate but here I use it for the sake of convenience.)
Also if you read the Contador bits of the Ashenden interview, it seems that only the clenbuterol pop got a manual scrutiny of his blood going. Then CAS protocols (perhaps justly; the case was about wada appealing the Spanish federation letting Contador of the hook) kept the transfusion dimension out of that investigation. Meaning you cannot get another ban from the process.
Of course, the riders might be doing something more potent these days. What, exactly, no idea. There has been no Landis to educate us.
Anyway, this discussion began from my conjecture that Pogacar panicked after stage 5 and did a bag before schedule. He got a boost that waned a bit over the week, regardless of what was behind it. I still consider the bag conjecture plausible.
- Jan 8, 2020
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- May 14, 2011
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They are very similar. Pog /UAE started. Vinge / Jumbo caught and passed him. The arms race. Look at the distance to 3rd. They are both beyond defending, I just happen to prefer how Pogacar rides. Just as most preferred Contador, also suspecting he doped. Vingegaard leaves me cold that just my opinion albeit apparently the most common view amongst forumites based upon recent polls. It’s opinion nothing wrong with that.
- May 29, 2011
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Got links, would be interested?! In the ex phys lit mitochondrial volume is usually thought to be more important to performance than their function.
I know that mitochondria are Pog's coach / propagandist San Millan's forte.
- Jan 8, 2020
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Yea, de gustibus, but I just can't root for Pog. It's too exaggerated. And I really could do without the antics. It's like a pie in the face. I mean he's doing this after a broken wrist! This is not to say I approve of Vingeggard, but only at least he's around as a potential foil as I've said.
- Jan 8, 2020
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No, I heard it through the grapevine. But I'll ask my source and, if anything turns up, get back to you.
- Jan 8, 2020
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It's generic, but whilst I'm still waiting for a response, this might indicate the new frontier (as to the bolded):
"AICAR is a performance-enhancing drug that the French Anti-Doping Agency suspected was used in the 2009 Tour de France; it stimulates mitochondria, the part in the muscles responsible for aerobic energy production.
In cycling, for gene doping to be effective, techniques should target both EPO levels and red blood cell production to have a higher oxygen delivery to the muscles, Weber says -- but they would also need to increase the mass and number of mitochondria in order to actually produce energy from that oxygen.
"Just because you have more oxygen, it doesn't necessary mean you also have the capacity to produce energy out of it," Weber said.
As AICAR was a drug, it wasn't gene doping, but it led people to wonder about what was next, he says, after this "first step" toward stimulating the body's mitochondria. "That was the only time I heard people talking about the possibility of gene-doping."
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The backdrop:
In 2003, the organization banned "gene doping," which it defined as the "nontherapeutic use of cells, genes, genetic elements, or modulation of gene expression, having the capacity to enhance performance." This new frontier of doping presented a simple and dark idea: What if there was a way for dopers to never be caught?
Now, almost 20 years later, the technology has finally been used to treat patients with rare diseases -- such as severe combined immunodeficiency, chronic granulomatous disorder, hemophilia, blindness, cancer and neurodegenerative diseases -- by transferring missing genes into skeletal muscles, Sweeney said. "So because of that, it is now at a point where potentially it could be used by athletes.
"It could be done today in athletes if some company and government would put the resources (in) to make it happen," he said.
Genes are delivered into an organism using a "vector," the most common being viruses, like that used by Sweeney, which have been modified to be safe and no longer cause disease. The vectors carry the desired gene into targeted cells and, there, unload the genetic material, which in turn instructs the organism to produce the protein the gene encodes.
One example of a protein well-known to athletes is erythropoietin, commonly known as EPO, which regulates the production of red blood cells in the body, increasing hemoglobin and oxygen delivery to tissues.
With the injection of external EPO, elite athletes -- often cyclists -- have been enhancing performance for years, but authorities have caught on. Anti-doping controls can now detect external EPO efficiently through blood and urine tests.
If extra EPO is being produced organically by a cell's machinery, however, it is almost impossible to detect as a banned substance.
In 2003, the organization banned "gene doping," which it defined as the "nontherapeutic use of cells, genes, genetic elements, or modulation of gene expression, having the capacity to enhance performance." This new frontier of doping presented a simple and dark idea: What if there was a way for dopers to never be caught?
Now, almost 20 years later, the technology has finally been used to treat patients with rare diseases -- such as severe combined immunodeficiency, chronic granulomatous disorder, hemophilia, blindness, cancer and neurodegenerative diseases -- by transferring missing genes into skeletal muscles, Sweeney said. "So because of that, it is now at a point where potentially it could be used by athletes.
"It could be done today in athletes if some company and government would put the resources (in) to make it happen," he said.
Genes are delivered into an organism using a "vector," the most common being viruses, like that used by Sweeney, which have been modified to be safe and no longer cause disease. The vectors carry the desired gene into targeted cells and, there, unload the genetic material, which in turn instructs the organism to produce the protein the gene encodes.
One example of a protein well-known to athletes is erythropoietin, commonly known as EPO, which regulates the production of red blood cells in the body, increasing hemoglobin and oxygen delivery to tissues.
With the injection of external EPO, elite athletes -- often cyclists -- have been enhancing performance for years, but authorities have caught on. Anti-doping controls can now detect external EPO efficiently through blood and urine tests.
If extra EPO is being produced organically by a cell's machinery, however, it is almost impossible to detect as a banned substance.
- May 29, 2011
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Thanks.
Sebastian Weber?
The underlying rationale sounds reasonable to me. I am agnostic towards Peter Wagner's theory of vo2max (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36434438/) where peripheral factors (muscle metabolic capacity, including mitochondrial volume and function) can act as aerobic capacity constraints along with more traditional central factors (stroke volume, blood volume and hb mass). But it sure popped into my mind here. More oxygen does not translate directly into performance unless the peripheral side is capable of using it, basically.
So assume Wagner is correct, and you have two neat targets for a regime beside recovery stuff: good ol' blood manipulation to drive central performance limiters further out; and the new mitochondria targeting stuff to really push the peripheral constraints out, too. Now you can theoretically attain a higher vo2max still, in comparison to just working the central side. So higher 5min power, not only higher threshold.
Of course, it is well known that the peripheral side of things is the more important constraint of sub max, threshold type performance, and endurance. And you get that too by pushing mitos up. So push mitos up and you never get tired, basically.
Since Pog's PDBF performance San Millan has been going on ad nauseam about how his lactate meter pinpointed, totally unique type of zone 2 rides are the key to mito development. But besides all the hubbub, this is bread and butter endurance riding, and everyone does it... He also prescribed the same stuff to Garmin riders when working with them, but the results were not, hmm, as revolutionary.
I believe the body is at the same time too dumb and clever and thus insensitive to making such ultra fine grained training intervention protocols game changing. Research is pretty blunt: volume rules the roost in mito development, as it pushes up mito volume. Intensity then targets mito function.
But assume one can teach the body new tricks, then we are talking.
And if it turns out something like you posted about is indeed taking place, then of course the hallowed ultra special Z2 talk would be just what it is, a smokescreen.
- Jul 16, 2015
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With regards to the Pog versus Vinge (quasi moral) debate regarding which one we support, i.e. considering we heavily suspect both are more than a little delving into the dark arts of performance enhancement, a parallel could be drawn back to the 1990's when Pantani was popular... & certain cyborgs weren't.
Vingegaard is a cyborg. He's the clinical product of Jumbo Visma's need to micromanage the Tour de France to a maniacal degree. He's basically the 'human' embodiment of their team car in the peloton. They say jump, Vinge says how high. Rog was decommissioned as their leader in the Tour because he's precisely too unpredictable (blows hot & cold) & has moments of no risk, no glory which give the DS's jitters. Some people don't notice this (or haven't been following Jumbo Visma closely enough) & fall for the 'marketing' which paints Vingegaard as a model father & an introvert. But honestly, there's nothing anywhere near as deep going on there, i.e. it's just Vingegaard following numbers on his bike computer & doing exactly what Grischa tells him to do. Froome-esque.
Pog on the other hand... has some Pantani in him. And he looks better & more natural on a bike as well. The aesthetics are definitely in Pog's favor & yes, it matters. I mean what's with Vinge also constantly staring at Pog to the extent he'll give himself whiplash? Even French Eurosport (Jacky Durand) noticed this & thought it was weird.
People are free to pick & choose who they support (obviously) but tant qu’à faire (aka whilst we're at it) I'd rather support the rider who comes across as an actual thoroughbred instead of a machine.
Just my opinion.
Vingegaard is a cyborg. He's the clinical product of Jumbo Visma's need to micromanage the Tour de France to a maniacal degree. He's basically the 'human' embodiment of their team car in the peloton. They say jump, Vinge says how high. Rog was decommissioned as their leader in the Tour because he's precisely too unpredictable (blows hot & cold) & has moments of no risk, no glory which give the DS's jitters. Some people don't notice this (or haven't been following Jumbo Visma closely enough) & fall for the 'marketing' which paints Vingegaard as a model father & an introvert. But honestly, there's nothing anywhere near as deep going on there, i.e. it's just Vingegaard following numbers on his bike computer & doing exactly what Grischa tells him to do. Froome-esque.
Pog on the other hand... has some Pantani in him. And he looks better & more natural on a bike as well. The aesthetics are definitely in Pog's favor & yes, it matters. I mean what's with Vinge also constantly staring at Pog to the extent he'll give himself whiplash? Even French Eurosport (Jacky Durand) noticed this & thought it was weird.
People are free to pick & choose who they support (obviously) but tant qu’à faire (aka whilst we're at it) I'd rather support the rider who comes across as an actual thoroughbred instead of a machine.
Just my opinion.
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Lee Sweeney, physiologist at the University of Pennsylvania's Perelman School of Medicine, who's also director of the University of Florida's Myology Institute.
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