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The big favourites in my view are Cadel, Andy and Wiggins. Nibali, Sanchez and maybe Menchov ( the maybe is only because of him being non- existent ) are the other people who i think could challenge realistically.
Vino exceeds realistic views of course so he shall also be counted.
Vino exceeds realistic views of course so he shall also be counted.
At this moment I would rate the favourites for the Tour as follows (taking into account past form, this year's form, and the Tour parcours.)
***** Evans
**** Wiggins, Sanchez
*** Nibali, Schleck
** Van den Broeck, Rolland, Menchov
* Klöden, Leipheimer, Gesink, Mollema
Before this season, Schleck and Menchov would have been rated higher.
That said I have already had a flutter e/w on both Nibali and Menchov, as this is where the value bets lie.
***** Evans
**** Wiggins, Sanchez
*** Nibali, Schleck
** Van den Broeck, Rolland, Menchov
* Klöden, Leipheimer, Gesink, Mollema
Before this season, Schleck and Menchov would have been rated higher.
That said I have already had a flutter e/w on both Nibali and Menchov, as this is where the value bets lie.
***** No one deserves 5 stars at this point, 5 stars would be for Armstrong or Contador types
**** Nibali, Schleck, Menchov, Wiggins, Sanchez, Evans
*** Leipheimer, other RSNT,
** Mollema, JVDB, Valverde
* some other folk.
If Leipheimer hadn't crashed he could well be on 4* being OPQS and all.
Pretty open IMO.
**** Nibali, Schleck, Menchov, Wiggins, Sanchez, Evans
*** Leipheimer, other RSNT,
** Mollema, JVDB, Valverde
* some other folk.
If Leipheimer hadn't crashed he could well be on 4* being OPQS and all.
Pretty open IMO.
The Hitch said:
Tendonitis is kind of non descript, it depends on were and how severe. Anything from no problem to out of the tour.
karlboss said:
I see.
When was the last news? He pulled out of Romandie 2 weeks ago, anyone hear of any updates since?
Please don't forget that Evans is 35 now.He already was the oldest winner of the last 40 years. So I don't believe he can keep his form for 3 weeks at this age.
Menchov is 34. Men in my country are known to decline early. So he is too old for the win.
Sanchez is 34 and he was not good in 2011 Grand tours. May be he can but he is not the best climber and not the best TT.
Wiggins? He never was good in the mountains. He lost EVERY stage in the mountains in GT to the favourites.
Andy Schleck lost 2001 TDF because he worked for Franck and lost about 2 minutes because of it. And remember that he is now with Bruyneel and he will be stronger than ever because of excellent doping system of Bruyneel. He will get his win.
Nibali will be second and hope Menchov will be 3rd. Van den Broeck 4th and Cadel 5th.
Menchov is 34. Men in my country are known to decline early. So he is too old for the win.
Sanchez is 34 and he was not good in 2011 Grand tours. May be he can but he is not the best climber and not the best TT.
Wiggins? He never was good in the mountains. He lost EVERY stage in the mountains in GT to the favourites.
Andy Schleck lost 2001 TDF because he worked for Franck and lost about 2 minutes because of it. And remember that he is now with Bruyneel and he will be stronger than ever because of excellent doping system of Bruyneel. He will get his win.
Nibali will be second and hope Menchov will be 3rd. Van den Broeck 4th and Cadel 5th.
Angulo said:
There is not much that is right here, but the bit about Nibali coming second and Menchov 3rd could possibly materialise.
airstream
BANNED
karlboss said:
I think Menchov is more of a ***, hes closer to Levi than he is Nibali, thats for sure.
I think the presence of Nibali changes the dynamic of the race considerably:
he has been attacking alot this year and is one more good climber.
It adds another climber to the ranks which could make the race better.
Let me re-shuffle it a little bit to reflect a more realistic scenarioJan the Man said:
***** Nibali, Evans
**** Sanchez, Wiggins
*** Gesink, Rolland, Van den Broeck
** Menchov, A. Schleck
* Klöden, Leipheimer, Mollema
Nibali is a climber of "Menchov, Sanchez" league. And he is better TT than Andy Gesink, Rolland and van den Broeck. And he is young.
Who can beat him in the mountains? Only Aschleck.
He can beat everyone except Sanchez on downhill.
He CAN attack in the mountains.
Hope he will have strong team.
Who can beat him in the mountains? Only Aschleck.
He can beat everyone except Sanchez on downhill.
He CAN attack in the mountains.
Hope he will have strong team.
Angulo said:
Nibali is by now a better descender than Sanchez.
Samu admits that he is a worse descender these days than he was before, often misinterpreted by resident experts as him saying he doesn't want to take risks now that he has kids, which ignores the fact that he had a son before he had even completed a gt.
In the mountains, based on past form though, Sanchez should drop Nibali. Of course Nibali on Giro 2010 form is something to be reckoned with, particularly looking at Grappa and Mortirolo, but I think Sanchez in Tour 2010 clearly 3rd best, and some of his 2011 performance, particularly Gap, is slightly better.
cineteq said:
lol, ignoring the tongue in cheek decleration of Nibali as the favourite, where exactly are Gesink, Rolland and Van den Broeck going to take time on Andy Schleck?
TTs among other stagesThe Hitch said:
The question is, rather, where Andy Schleck is going to take time on anybody?
Actually, let me correct myself:
** Menchov,
* Klöden, Leipheimer, Mollema, A. Schleck
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