TDF 2012: Titans Collide. Dennis Menchov Versus Cadel Evans...possible rivalry.

[42x16ss]

Yes it was their "shape" that made them TT better

TBF, it was. Nobody mentioned how they got that shape (that's for the clinic) but it was clearly their career best.

 

[airstream]

Well, maybe I said a bit too much, but the fact remains that while Menchov didn't go at Angliru, because his captain was in front winning the Vuelta, Wiggins still lost half a minute to Menchov.

Anyways, even if I come back on that statement, it doesn't change the fact Menchov is a much better GT rider than Wiggins.

Again, I'm not disregarding Wiggins, I'm sure he'll do well this TDF, but no way is he a better GT rider than Menchov. Thus it annoys me when people disregard Menchov for being inconsistent (despite continually getting top 10 GC results in GT's since 2005), and then go on to talk about how it'll be a battle between Evans and Wiggins, while Wiggins has only managed to get a top 10 twice in a GT.

I can admit that possibly he was a bit better than other contenders barring Cobo and Froome on last week, but there was no TT and in substance it's the only area he can embody his advantage in. Menchov can't attack on the climbs, doesn't get used to it and never takes a risk. It's a big problem for him.

A rider is as good as his last results are. We compare their chances rather than palmares.

If I remember correctly Roberto Heras set a new record at average speed in that time trial. Hopefully, Andy will pamper us with something similar.

 

[McLovin]

I don't hate cyclists, maybe you do, but I don't.

Well said. I think if a person is saying that he hate a rider, than that person never rode a bike uphill. Just admiration for every pro for what I am concerned.

 

[Angliru]

I can admit that possibly he was a bit better than other contenders barring Cobo and Froome on last week, but there was no TT and in substance it's the only area he can embody his advantage in. Menchov can't attack on the climbs, doesn't get used to it and never takes a risk. It's a big problem for him.

A rider is as good as his last results are. We compare their chances rather than palmares.

If I remember correctly Roberto Heras set a new record at average speed in that time trial. Hopefully, Andy will pamper us with something similar.

Are you saying Wiggins can attack on the climbs and often takes risks? You have to take Wiggins' performance within the context in which it was achieved. Yes, he was recovering from an injury, but as was mentioned the competition wasn't on the level of the Tour. Menchov didn't reach his best form until the final week. Also Menchov isn't one to speak in extremes and tends to be pretty matter-of-fact when he does speak. I believe him when he says that he was capable of winning but with Cobo in strong contention he played the loyal teammate and his sacrifice seemed to have paid off. His performance on Angliru is a testament to his form in the last week.

You say a rider is as good as his last performance, then should we then look at Andy's 2011 Tour performance and with the exception of his epic Galibier victory conclude that his peak was in 2010 and he has already met his plateau and is in decline?

 

[movingtarget]

well- lets just say IF both reach the Tour in great shape & ride aggressively- then we'll witness a great battle. One factor nobody has mentioned here is that Evans is going to face loads of pressure from being the current champion-and that might affect his mind-ala 2008 when the critics literally crowned him as winner since Contador wasn't participating then-and we know what happened.....& there is Menchov with his awful ups & downs in performance-& lack of attacking initiative...he just cannot do that this Year- this is his last chance-so he better be ready to suffer...

Even at 34 Evans is a much better rider than he was in 2008. He is more aggressive, smarter and not as fragile mentally and he isn't up against any team this that resembles the team CSC had in 2008. His TTs last year were stronger and he handled the Schlecks well in the mountains. They needed a daring long distance break to put any serious time into him and then lost it all again in the TT. What does he have to fear ? The only major difference to last year is that Menchov is back and Contador is out and it's always impossible to predict how Menchov will go. Evans won last year with a team that many people thought were not up to the job and his team this year is stronger at least for the flat/medium stages and some of the climbers on BMC have shown improvement this year. R/Shack is under more pressure because they have to attack.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

I don't know about you guys, but i will cheer for the 1 that is winning

 

[phanatic]

If Cadel and Menchov get blown up in the mountains, it could very well be due to the damage of Schleck and Sanchez. I'd look to Schleck and Sanchez to work together if they are smart in the mountains to try to get time on Cadel and Menchov.

This is what I'm looking forward to. Sanchez was the best after Andy in 2010, and a deserved King of the Mountains in 2011 (imagine the race had Andy followed him in the Pyrenees, or Sanchez followed Andy to Galibier). A few long range attacks might distance, or even crack, the TT specialists.

 

[airstream]

Are you saying Wiggins can attack on the climbs and often takes risks? You have to take Wiggins' performance within the context in which it was achieved. Yes, he was recovering from an injury, but as was mentioned the competition wasn't on the level of the Tour. Menchov didn't reach his best form until the final week. Also Menchov isn't one to speak in extremes and tends to be pretty matter-of-fact when he does speak. I believe him when he says that he was capable of winning but with Cobo in strong contention he played the loyal teammate and his sacrifice seemed to have paid off. His performance on Angliru is a testament to his form in the last week.

You say a rider is as good as his last performance, then should we then look at Andy's 2011 Tour performance and with the exception of his epic Galibier victory conclude that his peak was in 2010 and he has already met his plateau and is in decline?

Wiggins looked more impressive in 2011 and he has a nominal advantage in TT over anyone else. Why should we proceed from the fact that Wiggins reached his peak in the Vuelta? He could have ridden TT better, he was a weaker climber compared to the 2009 Tour. They were prepared approximately equally, but unlike Menchov Wiggins had an objective reason to be out of his best shape. Hm, how could he win? Very interesting. He hasn't attacked seriously the whole career and would have begun to attack in case there had not been Cobo? What sacrifice? There's no aerodynamic effect on overly steep Angliru. If one is good, go ahead, attack! Sky and Powels wouldn't have chased him cos they were literally dying then. He didn't budge because he couldn't.

Hm, I don't say Andy will win, or say it facetiously, but I've got very good presentiments. Everything will be on fire as soon as Bruyneel rules Frank's role in the team.

 

[gustienordic]

This is what I'm looking forward to. Sanchez was the best after Andy in 2010, and a deserved King of the Mountains in 2011 (imagine the race had Andy followed him in the Pyrenees, or Sanchez followed Andy to Galibier). A few long range attacks might distance, or even crack, the TT specialists.

Sanchez I believe actually has a great chance this year if he can stay on his bike and not lose large amounts of time early. He can climb better than anyone minus maybe Andy, and can TT much better than Andy.

But as is always true, one of the big favorites will crash out or have some terrible luck therefore I would say possible winners (In no order)

Evans, Sanchez, Wiggins, & Menchov

Menchov & Wiggins fight for victory if anything happens to Evans. If Evans & Samu crash out, race will be fundamentally different.

 

[Parrulo]

Lol @Menchov being disregarded and then talking about Wiggins.

Menchov would've killed Wiggins at last Vuelta if he wasn't working for Cobo.

Menchov has won three GT's.

Menchov podiumed the TDF twice.

What did Wiggins ever do to get mentioned alongside Evans and Menchov? Podium the Vuelta behind his domestique? Lose half a minute to Menchov on El Angliru when Menchov wasn't even trying because he couldn't ride behind his captain?

Sure, Menchov isn't known for his consistency, so maybe Menchov'll suck and if Wiggins does realy well, then Wiggins might finish ahead of him. But if Menchov and Evans show up in shape and don't crash, Wiggins can forget about contending.

It's not as if I dislike Wiggins that much, he might do really well this TDF and podium, but Menchov is a much much better rider. I get annoyed when people disregard somebody who podiumed two TDF's and won three GT's and then talk about somebody who's best GT results are a 4th place in the TDF and a 3rd place in the Vuelta.

why are you even trying to discuss with the english crowd? i gave up on that long ago.

for them it is fairly simple, a Brit guy that finished twice on the top 10 of a GT(4th in on the 09 tour and 3rd in the 11 vuelta) is much better then a proven GT winner with actually more GT wins then said Brit has top 10 placings, he is also better then a certain italian with 2 giro podiums a vuelta win and a tour top 10 placing back when he was 24. He is also much better then a certain spanish rider who was arguably the best climber of last years tour and who himself has a couple of GT podiums and top 10 placings in several GT's. It may not sound very logical (i wonder why ) but it is the simple truth. . . for them. . .

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

why are you even trying to discuss with the english crowd? i gave up on that long ago.

Probably because you have more than 4,000 more posts than me .

 

[Parrulo]

Probably because you have more than 4,000 more posts than me .

lol that's a good reason i guess

 

[airstream]

Parrulo, what's underlinedly wrong with British centriс stance? Wiggins has not bad chance to win the Tour, Froome too. Wiggo is the 3rd favorite based on bookmakers, froome - 5th

 

[c&cfan]

Parrulo, what's underlinedly wrong with British centriс stance? Wiggins has not bad chance to win the Tour, Froome too. Wiggo is the 3rd favorite based on bookmakers, froome - 5th

well... people are stupid by nature. that's true. bookmakers and analysts are useless for a strong society. they are just regular men/women that weren't smart/good enough to be a pilot, engineer, doctor, athlete, .......

so give them the importance they deserve and that is giving them 0 if you follow anything closely like cycling, stock market, etc.

capiche? work your brain and them use your own head to make decisions.

 

[airstream]

well... people are stupid by nature. that's true. bookmakers and analysts are useless for a strong society. they are just regular men/women that weren't smart/good enough to be a pilot, engineer, doctor, athlete, .......

so give them the importance they deserve and that is giving them 0 if you follow anything closely like cycling, stock market, etc.

capiche? work your brain and them use your own head to make decisions.

omg, looool, and what decision you made? samuel sanchez will win the Tour? Actually, unlike fans, bookmakers' point is unbiased to the limit (as far as its possible). yes, it's quite rough probabilistic calculation, but a really plausible one.

 

[uphillstruggle]

Sanchez I believe actually has a great chance this year if he can stay on his bike and not lose large amounts of time early. He can climb better than anyone minus maybe Andy, and can TT much better than Andy.

I agree but he usually has a bad day in the mountains in grand tours. If he can aviod this then why not

 

[c&cfan]

omg, looool, and what decision you made? samuel sanchez will win the Tour? Actually, unlike fans, bookmakers' point is unbiased to the limit (as far as its possible). yes, it's quite rough probabilistic calculation, but a really plausible one.

not really...

bookmakers make their "predictions" based on rumors and gossip.
ask any real cycling fan and they will tell you that it is much more likely for samu to crush this tour than to wiggins to make podium.

and why is that? why true cycling fans think/bet like that?

if you are asking me about menchov vs wiggins, i would quickly and without thinking twice say that menchov has a much bigger chance to win. former GT winner.. huge talent.. always with the desire to win the tour.. former tour podium finisher (2 years ago). wiggins is and has nothing compared to him. it wouldn't surprise me one bit if menchov gained time to every contender in the TT. he already beat everyone of them before.

 

[airstream]

not really...

bookmakers make their "predictions" based on rumors and gossip.
ask any real cycling fan and they will tell you that it is much more likely for samu to crush this tour than to wiggins to make podium.

Hm-m, about 4/5 of the forum members wouldn't agree to you. However, that's unsurprising. There are so few real cycling fans.
what is c+c? contador and cancellara?

 

[c&cfan]

Hm-m, about 4/5 of the forum members wouldn't agree to you. However, that's unsurprising. There are so few real cycling fans.
what is c+c? contador and cancellara?

yes.. maybe they disagree. but history told us that stupid people outnumber smart people 5 to 1. funny, isn't it?

ask aristoteles
ask socrates
ask galileu
ask einstein
ask newton
ask hannibal
ask hitchens

-----

yes it is. the gladiators.

 

[greenedge]

Lol @Menchov being disregarded and then talking about Wiggins.

Menchov would've killed Wiggins at last Vuelta if he wasn't working for Cobo.

What did Wiggins ever do to get mentioned alongside Evans and Menchov?

It's not as if I dislike Wiggins that much, he might do really well this TDF and podium, but Menchov is a much much better rider. I get annoyed when people disregard somebody who podiumed two TDF's and won three GT's and then talk about somebody who's best GT results are a 4th place in the TDF and a 3rd place in the Vuelta.

We are not disregarding him, just saying that Wiggins might be considered more of a favourite at the moment.
He is a good ITTer, better than Evans/ Menchov on paper so on a route that suits him he is realistically a chance to win.
The route just was not backloaded enough for Menchov in last years Vuelta, and he failed in the first week.

 

[karlboss]

Short memories.
We have never seen Wiggins prove himself TDF winning material on any mountain ever. Menchov has. Wiggins had the better results in 2011, but not 2010, nor 2009, and how did Cadel Evans do at the tour in 2009, 2010 and yet many wrote him off for 2011.
Last year when push has come to shove on a tough mountain finishes ie not 10 people going to the line together Wiggins dropped 54 seconds to rodriguez stage 6 of the dauphine, 1:21 to cobo on Angliru. That's about a minute per MTF. We can argue that Wiggins had a broken collarbone or was riding conservatively, but we can also argue it was the Dauphine and Vuelta to Rodriguez and Cobo. Not the tour, not against an inform Schleck with team backup.
This year RSNT have Frank, Andy, Horner, Kloden, Zubeldia, Zaugg, Monfort, Fugslang not that they will all go to the tour, but they could dish out loads of pain to Wiggins and Sky.
Remember 2009 stage 17? Wiggins dropped 3 minutes to Frank and Andy, in fact the next best riders to the top 3 dropped 2 minutes, on something that ended downhill and they only pushed the pace over the final 2 climbs. If that happened twice this tour Andy beats Wiggins and I think many are underestimating the mountains in this years tour.

 

[orangerider]

Totally far-fetched. Who did Menchov outsprint at the finish line? Only Leipheimer lol, Sastre and il Killer on a bad day for him. Menchov will be constantly thrown away out of the group 4-5 best climbers, what a wicked kick are you talking about?

Totally far-fetched to say Menchov will not be in the GC group at the line. Not the best climbers, of course, but none of the "true" climbers are going to win GC anyway. We're talking about GC here. Look at the who the favorites are and realize only A. Schleck is the only one who can launch a viable uphill attack, while all the other favorites are grinders and will hit the line at the same time.

 

[Froome19]

if you are asking me about menchov vs wiggins, i would quickly and without thinking twice say that menchov has a much bigger chance to win. former GT winner.. huge talent.. always with the desire to win the tour.. former tour podium finisher (2 years ago). wiggins is and has nothing compared to him. it wouldn't surprise me one bit if menchov gained time to every contender in the TT. he already beat everyone of them before.

Thats totally irrelevant... if Menchov is at the level where he won his GTs of course he is/one of the favorite/s

Short memories.
We have never seen Wiggins prove himself TDF winning material on any mountain ever. Menchov has. Wiggins had the better results in 2011, but not 2010, nor 2009, and how did Cadel Evans do at the tour in 2009, 2010 and yet many wrote him off for 2011.
Last year when push has come to shove on a tough mountain finishes ie not 10 people going to the line together Wiggins dropped 54 seconds to rodriguez stage 6 of the dauphine, 1:21 to cobo on Angliru. That's about a minute per MTF. We can argue that Wiggins had a broken collarbone or was riding conservatively, but we can also argue it was the Dauphine and Vuelta to Rodriguez and Cobo. Not the tour, not against an inform Schleck with team backup.
This year RSNT have Frank, Andy, Horner, Kloden, Zubeldia, Zaugg, Monfort, Fugslang not that they will all go to the tour, but they could dish out loads of pain to Wiggins and Sky.
Remember 2009 stage 17? Wiggins dropped 3 minutes to Frank and Andy, in fact the next best riders to the top 3 dropped 2 minutes, on something that ended downhill and they only pushed the pace over the final 2 climbs. If that happened twice this tour Andy beats Wiggins and I think many are underestimating the mountains in this years tour.

Exactly the fact why Wiggins should be considered a contender more than Wiggins.
People are missing the point that 2009 is sure a basis and proof for how Wiggins will fare at the tour but it is so minimal because of course the 2009 Wiggins has not chance of winning the tour but Wiggins has improved immensely since then as a road and specifically a Gt rider since then. He was not accustomed then to riding mountains and long descents as a GC contender then but rather he was accustomed more to the track and flat Time trials.
It is evident considering his wins at PN and Dauphine + Vuelta podium and Nats and WC that he has improved immensely as a road racer, whether he has improved enough to challenge for the tour is debatable but it is certainly a very big possibility, especially considering the route.

This is of course in contrast to Menchov who showed signs of possible waning last year. I am not saying he is declining but rather there is a possbility and since Wiggins has shown in the recent past how he can very possibly become a tour podiumer whilst Menchov has not in the recent past shown such I would be inclined to go for Wiggins

 

[airstream]

Last year when push has come to shove on a tough mountain finishes ie not 10 people going to the line together Wiggins dropped 54 seconds to rodriguez stage 6 of the dauphine, 1:21 to cobo on Angliru. That's about a minute per MTF. We can argue that Wiggins had a broken collarbone or was riding conservatively, but we can also argue it was the Dauphine and Vuelta to Rodriguez and Cobo.

Seems to me, such a loss on Angliru characterizes Wiggins very positively as a climber especilly compared to Menchov.

Remember 2009 stage 17? Wiggins dropped 3 minutes to Frank and Andy, in fact the next best riders to the top 3 dropped 2 minutes, on something that ended downhill and they only pushed the pace over the final 2 climbs. If that happened twice this tour Andy beats Wiggins and I think many are underestimating the mountains in this years tour.

I offer to anticipate a grand battle. If the Schlecks, Klodi and Papy Horner decide to сarry out this trick again, the others won't get away clear with 3minutes.

Totally far-fetched to say Menchov will not be in the GC group at the line. Not the best climbers, of course, but none of the "true" climbers are going to win GC anyway. We're talking about GC here. Look at the who the favorites are and realize only A. Schleck is the only one who can launch a viable uphill attack, while all the other favorites are grinders and will hit the line at the same time.

I see we are saying about GC and Menchov's victory is the most imaginative and representable chapter in comparison to Evans, Wiggins and Schleck. How does Menchov intend to gain time over the other TT'ers on the climbs

 

[airstream]

Totally far-fetched to say Menchov will not be in the GC group at the line. Not the best climbers, of course, but none of the "true" climbers are going to win GC anyway. We're talking about GC here. Look at the who the favorites are and realize only A. Schleck is the only one who can launch a viable uphill attack, while all the other favorites are grinders and will hit the line at the same time.

I see we are saying about GC and Menchov's victory is the most imaginative and representable chapter in comparison to Evans, Wiggins and Schleck. How does Menchov intend to gain time over the other TT'ers on the climbs