TDF 2012: Titans Collide. Dennis Menchov Versus Cadel Evans...possible rivalry.

[hatcher]

Short memories.
We have never seen Wiggins prove himself TDF winning material on any mountain ever. Menchov has. Wiggins had the better results in 2011, but not 2010, nor 2009, and how did Cadel Evans do at the tour in 2009, 2010 and yet many wrote him off for 2011.
Last year when push has come to shove on a tough mountain finishes ie not 10 people going to the line together Wiggins dropped 54 seconds to rodriguez stage 6 of the dauphine, 1:21 to cobo on Angliru. That's about a minute per MTF. We can argue that Wiggins had a broken collarbone or was riding conservatively, but we can also argue it was the Dauphine and Vuelta to Rodriguez and Cobo. Not the tour, not against an inform Schleck with team backup.
This year RSNT have Frank, Andy, Horner, Kloden, Zubeldia, Zaugg, Monfort, Fugslang not that they will all go to the tour, but they could dish out loads of pain to Wiggins and Sky.
Remember 2009 stage 17? Wiggins dropped 3 minutes to Frank and Andy, in fact the next best riders to the top 3 dropped 2 minutes, on something that ended downhill and they only pushed the pace over the final 2 climbs. If that happened twice this tour Andy beats Wiggins and I think many are underestimating the mountains in this years tour.

Come on, now. If we're going to start cherry picking stages, and throwing out all context, then we have Menchov losing over a minute in the Vuelta TT to Wiggins + Froome; Evans losing 1:10 to Wiggins in the Dauphine TT, 15 seconds to Wiggins on the the climb Rodriguez won (and Samu losing nearly 2 minutes 30!); Anton, Rodriguez, Nibali, VdB etc all losing time to Wiggins on other climbs in the Vuelta.

If you really want to go back to 2009 to bring up one stage, you should also bring up Wiggins putting 18 minutes into Menchov and 26 into Evans on that very same stage; plus 6 minutes into Menchov up Verbier, plus 1:30 into Evans, Kloden, Armstrong. And on and on.

With context, Rodriguez was already 4 minutes down on Wiggins at that point, and not a danger.

With context, Menchov also lost 48 seconds to Cobo on the Angliru, and only gained 30 seconds on a near-dead, in-agony Wiggins, whilst Menchov himself was - we are constantly reminded - only just reaching his peak in the third week.

With context, 2009 was Wiggins first ever attempt at a GC, and he did a heck of a lot better than Evans and Menchov.

In other words, what a pointless exercise.

 

[movingtarget]

Short memories.
We have never seen Wiggins prove himself TDF winning material on any mountain ever. Menchov has. Wiggins had the better results in 2011, but not 2010, nor 2009, and how did Cadel Evans do at the tour in 2009, 2010 and yet many wrote him off for 2011.
Last year when push has come to shove on a tough mountain finishes ie not 10 people going to the line together Wiggins dropped 54 seconds to rodriguez stage 6 of the dauphine, 1:21 to cobo on Angliru. That's about a minute per MTF. We can argue that Wiggins had a broken collarbone or was riding conservatively, but we can also argue it was the Dauphine and Vuelta to Rodriguez and Cobo. Not the tour, not against an inform Schleck with team backup.
This year RSNT have Frank, Andy, Horner, Kloden, Zubeldia, Zaugg, Monfort, Fugslang not that they will all go to the tour, but they could dish out loads of pain to Wiggins and Sky.
Remember 2009 stage 17? Wiggins dropped 3 minutes to Frank and Andy, in fact the next best riders to the top 3 dropped 2 minutes, on something that ended downhill and they only pushed the pace over the final 2 climbs. If that happened twice this tour Andy beats Wiggins and I think many are underestimating the mountains in this years tour.

It's also apparent that Wiggins is a better rider than he was a few years ago. His form pre-Tour last year and this year to me, is an improvement. Does not automatically mean that it will translate to a Tour success but he has definitely improved. He has to be included in the top 5. As for R/Shack, I don't believe the hype. They have to attack, does not mean they will be successful.

 

[airstream]

Andy plays white. If he will be like in 2010 no one stands a chance.

 

[cineteq]

Andy plays white. If he will be like in 2010 no one stands a chance.

1. Sounds like wishful thinking
2. Are you aware of this?
Time is running out on Andy Schleck's preparations for the Ardennes Classics, and the former winner of Liège-Bastogne-Liège (2009) is still struggling to overcome a lack of racing kilometers following a troubled start of his season.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/andy-schlecks-form-still-in-doubt-after-brabantse-pijl

 

[airstream]

1. Sounds like wishful thinking
2. Are you aware of this?
Time is running out on Andy Schleck's preparations for the Ardennes Classics, and the former winner of Liège-Bastogne-Liège (2009) is still struggling to overcome a lack of racing kilometers following a troubled start of his season.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/andy-schlecks-form-still-in-doubt-after-brabantse-pijl

Yes, I've read this. It's ok. Bruyneel and Andy specified in winter yet that there is a lesser focus on Ardennes this season. Hopefully he will warm up a bit on LBL at least. So to speak, it's high time to start warming up.

 

[karlboss]

Come on, now. If we're going to start cherry picking stages, and throwing out all context, then we have Menchov losing over a minute in the Vuelta TT to Wiggins + Froome; Evans losing 1:10 to Wiggins in the Dauphine TT, 15 seconds to Wiggins on the the climb Rodriguez won (and Samu losing nearly 2 minutes 30!); Anton, Rodriguez, Nibali, VdB etc all losing time to Wiggins on other climbs in the Vuelta.

If you really want to go back to 2009 to bring up one stage, you should also bring up Wiggins putting 18 minutes into Menchov and 26 into Evans on that very same stage; plus 6 minutes into Menchov up Verbier, plus 1:30 into Evans, Kloden, Armstrong. And on and on.

With context, Rodriguez was already 4 minutes down on Wiggins at that point, and not a danger.

With context, Menchov also lost 48 seconds to Cobo on the Angliru, and only gained 30 seconds on a near-dead, in-agony Wiggins, whilst Menchov himself was - we are constantly reminded - only just reaching his peak in the third week.

With context, 2009 was Wiggins first ever attempt at a GC, and he did a heck of a lot better than Evans and Menchov.

In other words, what a pointless exercise.

I tried to pick examples of Wiggins when the pressure was on in 2011 uphill. If you have better examples of Wiggins climbing under pressure in 2011 feel free to share them. i just don't consider finishing with 10 other people indicative of a tough climb.
2009 Verbier is actually a great example of what he may be capable of, close to 8km at 8% and dropped 1:06 to Contador, but only 23 seconds to Andy Schleck. In fact I don't think he's ever climbed better than he did in that whole tour though his DS did state that the 2009 tour was soft pedalled on the hills. It may happen again in 2012, but i doubt it.
My reference to 2009 was only to point out that just because a stage doesn't finish uphill there isn't time to be made. And just how much time climbers can take on these over TT specialists.

 

[gustienordic]

It's also apparent that Wiggins is a better rider than he was a few years ago. His form pre-Tour last year and this year to me, is an improvement. Does not automatically mean that it will translate to a Tour success but he has definitely improved. He has to be included in the top 5. As for R/Shack, I don't believe the hype. They have to attack, does not mean they will be successful.

I think Wiggins might win, but I think that is solely because of his TT ability. He needs to pull out a great TT and hope to hang on in the MTNs, but Schleck knows he needs to attack, and so will, bringing with him Samu & Evans. I don't see Wiggins or Menchov capable of the same climbing prowess. Yet look at Contador in the 2008 Giro; he was hardly the dominant climber we saw in other years but since the stronger climbers kept cracking at unfortunate times, he was able to win. Could see a situation like this happen.

 

[movingtarget]

I think Wiggins might win, but I think that is solely because of his TT ability. He needs to pull out a great TT and hope to hang on in the MTNs, but Schleck knows he needs to attack, and so will, bringing with him Samu & Evans. I don't see Wiggins or Menchov capable of the same climbing prowess. Yet look at Contador in the 2008 Giro; he was hardly the dominant climber we saw in other years but since the stronger climbers kept cracking at unfortunate times, he was able to win. Could see a situation like this happen.

If Schleck is in his 2010 form I doubt that Evans or Sanchez or anyone else would be able to go with him on the MTFs. But that's a big if. Once again his preparation has been less than ideal this year. Has he finished a race yet ? As you say he also has the TTs to contend with and improvement there is an even bigger if. To me it's a simple calculation. Will Schleck gain enough time over the his best rivals in the mountains who are much better TT riders. I don't think he will on the riders at the top of the GC. Schleck's best chance is if some of these riders have some bad luck with mechanicals or whatever. Let's face it there are question marks about all of the contenders which makes for an open race like last year.

 

[karlboss]

I think Wiggins might win, but I think that is solely because of his TT ability. He needs to pull out a great TT and hope to hang on in the MTNs, but Schleck knows he needs to attack, and so will, bringing with him Samu & Evans. I don't see Wiggins or Menchov capable of the same climbing prowess. Yet look at Contador in the 2008 Giro; he was hardly the dominant climber we saw in other years but since the stronger climbers kept cracking at unfortunate times, he was able to win. Could see a situation like this happen.

I don't see Evans able to climb with Schleck if he drops the hammer. Come to think of it, now Contador is out I don't think anyone can.

Edit: pity for Andy he needs to drop them and take more than 4 minutes.

 

[airstream]

I guess it'll be black or white. Either Andy will be very good both on the climbs and in TT or won't be a contender for top-3. To win back 4minutes from Wiggins is more than a feasible task.

 

[karlboss]

I guess it'll be black or white. Either Andy will be very good both on the climbs and in TT or won't be a contender for top-3. To win back 4minutes from Wiggins is more than a feasible task.

Andy will be a top 3 contender(not will be top 3) if he is in 2011 form, but it'll take 2010 form and aggressive riding to be a contender for victory.

 

[JRanton]

I guess it'll be black or white. Either Andy will be very good both on the climbs and in TT or won't be a contender for top-3. To win back 4minutes from Wiggins is more than a feasible task.

True. It's not that feasible to win back 4 minutes from Evans though (or from Froome for that matter )

 

[airstream]

True. It's not that feasible to win back 4 minutes from Evans though (or from Froome for that matter )

Such an assumption works only if we suppose Evans will be as good as he was in Grenoble while Schleck will do badly. I'm sure he will ride TT better than in 2011, when he was too exhausted after the Alps. Also, we have to keep in mind Andy's giant climbing edge over everyone, including Evans.

 

[karlboss]

True. It's not that feasible to win back 4 minutes from Evans though (or from Froome for that matter )

Evans even in his good GTs has dropped lots of time to good climbers on individual stages. 2 min to Sastre, 3 to Basso, Nibali, Scarponi. Froome, depends on if he is in Vuelta form, or the form that he's had the rest of his career.

 

[SilentAssassin]

I think Wiggins might win, but I think that is solely because of his TT ability. He needs to pull out a great TT and hope to hang on in the MTNs, but Schleck knows he needs to attack, and so will, bringing with him Samu & Evans. I don't see Wiggins or Menchov capable of the same climbing prowess. Yet look at Contador in the 2008 Giro; he was hardly the dominant climber we saw in other years but since the stronger climbers kept cracking at unfortunate times, he was able to win. Could see a situation like this happen.

Menchov doesn't need to keep pace with Andy in the climbs. If he does Kudos. If he doesn't he will burn Andy in the time trial. As long as Menchov doesn't lose too much time to Andy in the mountains, he'll beat him. But I wouldn't be surprised if Menchov hangs with Andy. If Cadel can hang with Andy in the mountains, there is no doubt Menchov can.

 

[orangerider]

Menchov doesn't waste energy with other races trying to prove himself. Perhaps he just can't afford to physiologically or it's just a mental thing, but unless he's under the gun, he wont show us his true form.

 

[movingtarget]

Menchov doesn't waste energy with other races trying to prove himself. Perhaps he just can't afford to physiologically or it's just a mental thing, but unless he's under the gun, he wont show us his true form.

Well, he's got me fooled !

 

[Carols]

I agree Menchov has shown Zero so far this year except for one attack in a race early on. I was like wow there is life in those legs yet. Now he drops out of Romandie. Anyone know why???

 

[SilentAssassin]

I agree Menchov has shown Zero so far this year except for one attack in a race early on. I was like wow there is life in those legs yet. Now he drops out of Romandie. Anyone know why???

Probably dropped out because his priority is to win the Tour, not Romandie.

 

[blaxland]

Menchov v's Evans???This is not the important battle to be watched.Menchoz is way overated by some on this forum.Maybe top 10 for menchov.The big battle will be evans v's wiggins"both have good teams and can time trial well.Sorry schleck fans but andy definantley wont win this year'(to many TT kms)So the only rivalry i can see is for stage wins maybe?Menchov should have ridden the giro instead.

 

[karlboss]

Probably dropped out because his priority is to win the Tour, not Romandie.

tendonitis in the menchov thread, taken from katusha site. http://www.katushateam.com/2012/eng/main.php?mod=news&m=4&n=1590

 

[Caruut]

Menchov v's Evans???This is not the important battle to be watched.Menchoz is way overated by some on this forum.Maybe top 10 for menchov.The big battle will be evans v's wiggins"both have good teams and can time trial well.Sorry schleck fans but andy definantley wont win this year'(to many TT kms)So the only rivalry i can see is for stage wins maybe?Menchov should have ridden the giro instead.

In the Giro: 4 high-mountain summit finishes, 3 medium-mountain summit finishes and 39km of ITT

In the Tour: 3 MTFs, 100km of TT

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Denny Menchov's bike handling is legendary. Legendary.

 

[FabulousCandelabra]

I thought Menchov retired?? where has he been???

 

[42x16ss]

I thought Menchov retired?? where has he been???

He rode to top 10 finishes in last years' Giro and Vuelta for Geox.

TBH, I see the Tour being between Sanchez, Evans and Schleck. Sanchez and Evans are more rounded and Schleck always pulls out something extra in July....

Wiggins and Menchov will be up there (top 10 at worst) but I can't see them having that little bit extra that gets them onto the podium. Nibali and VDB will shake things up too.