TDF 2012: Titans Collide. Dennis Menchov Versus Cadel Evans...possible rivalry.

[rxgqgxnyfz]

People keep saying that Giro lineup is barren, but looking at contenders at TDF i see the same thing: no super favourite and lots of B++ riders.

What a difference one ban makes...

 

[The Hitch]

TTs among other stages

Lol

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=17899

Check and mate.

 

[karlboss]

I think Menchov is more of a ***, hes closer to Levi than he is Nibali, thats for sure.

I think the presence of Nibali changes the dynamic of the race considerably:
he has been attacking alot this year and is one more good climber.

It adds another climber to the ranks which could make the race better.

I gave him **** as in 2010 form on this course he will win, and as with Andy i don't think you can read anything into his form until June.

 

[airstream]

Nibali is a weak TT'er regarding a long distance with lots of blown flat, even worse than Andy. That was always so. His TT is mediocre and climbing style is very defensive and closed. Yeh, he has a downhill edge, but first it is necessary to win the right to do something on a descent by surviving uphill.. I think he won't be even in top-5.

 

[Parrulo]

Please don't forget that Evans is 35 now.He already was the oldest winner of the last 40 years. So I don't believe he can keep his form for 3 weeks at this age.

Menchov is 34. Men in my country are known to decline early. So he is too old for the win.

Sanchez is 34 and he was not good in 2011 Grand tours. May be he can but he is not the best climber and not the best TT.

Wiggins? He never was good in the mountains. He lost EVERY stage in the mountains in GT to the favourites.

Andy Schleck lost 2001 TDF because he worked for Franck and lost about 2 minutes because of it. And remember that he is now with Bruyneel and he will be stronger than ever because of excellent doping system of Bruyneel. He will get his win.

Nibali will be second and hope Menchov will be 3rd. Van den Broeck 4th and Cadel 5th.

samuel sanchez was the best climber of last year's tour overall. yes he blew up on the galibier after spending the entire race attacking instead of saving himself like all the rest did but he was once again super strong the following day with the fastest ascent of the Alpe. If last year's tour didn't have a TTT and that crazy accident on stage 1, samu would be on the podium maybe even on the top step.

Nibali is a weak TT'er regarding a long distance with lots of blown flat, even worse than Andy. That was always so. His TT is mediocre and climbing style is very defensive and closed. Yeh, he has a downhill edge, but first it is necessary to win the right to do something on a descent by surviving uphill.. I think he won't be even in top-5.

Nibali's long itt on flat roads is so mediocre that on the worst shape he has shown in a GT since 08 he only lost a minute to wiggins over 52 flat k's, which is roughly the same amount of time a 24 year old Nibali put on wiggins on the only proper mountain stage of the 09 tour. And Nibali has worked all summer on his ITT which is something he hadn't done since 08 so he may have improved on that department as well but we will have to wait for the dauphine to see evidence of that. Now if you want to say wiggins is also a better climbers besides being a better time trialist, which he is, then Nibali i won't stop you but i will say i want something of what you are having if you think so.

 

[42x16ss]

samuel sanchez was the best climber of last year's tour overall. yes he blew up on the galibier after spending the entire race attacking instead of saving himself like all the rest did but he was once again super strong the following day with the fastest ascent of the Alpe. If last year's tour didn't have a TTT and that crazy accident on stage 1, samu would be on the podium maybe even on the top step.



Nibali's long itt on flat roads is so mediocre that on the worst shape he has shown in a GT since 08 he only lost a minute to wiggins over 52 flat k's, which is roughly the same amount of time a 24 year old Nibali put on wiggins on the only proper mountain stage of the 09 tour. And Nibali has worked all summer on his ITT which is something he hadn't done since 08 so he may have improved on that department as well but we will have to wait for the dauphine to see evidence of that. Now if you want to say wiggins is also a better climbers besides being a better time trialist, which he is, then Nibali i won't stop you but i will say i want something of what you are having if you think so.

+1

Wiggins will not be able to climb on the same level as Schleck, Sanchez and Nibali over the stages with multiple big climbs (single big climbs he's fine).

Too many are also forgetting that there won't be an egocentric semi-retired triathlete riding the TdF this year insisting that his team softpedals in the mountains (unlike 09).

Before the English fans blow up, remember that it was Wiggins himself who said that Astana were softpedalling....

When Wiggins has gone into a GT as the outright leader he has:

Finshed 24th (2010 TdF)
Finished behind hs Domestique (2011 VaE)

Not what you want to be seeing from an "outright tour contender".

 

[airstream]

Nibali's long itt on flat roads is so mediocre that on the worst shape he has shown in a GT since 08 he only lost a minute to wiggins over 52 flat k's, which is roughly the same amount of time a 24 year old Nibali put on wiggins on the only proper mountain stage of the 09 tour. And Nibali has worked all summer on his ITT which is something he hadn't done since 08 so he may have improved on that department as well but we will have to wait for the dauphine to see evidence of that. Now if you want to say wiggins is also a better climbers besides being a better time trialist, which he is, then Nibali i won't stop you but i will say i want something of what you are having if you think so.

You take his best long TT whereas we should reason comprehensively to try to be unbiased. That was rather weak than strong Wiggins and a very good day for Nibali. In the 2009 TdF TT he was mediocre, in the Giro 2011 as well. Well, perhaps, we call him quite an unpredictable time trialist. Although, I'm sure Nibali can beat in TT only Gesink and Rolland among the main contenders. At that, Vincenzo usually does not very good TT's if they are on the 3rd week. He will be able to make up his TT loses only in case Wiggins screws up completely. Hm, no... Nibali's TT is too debatable question that one of us could consider himself right at 100%. I don't say Wiggins is a better climber but I don't see how Nibali can podium, again, if 2-3 contenders don't fail.

samuel sanchez was the best climber of last year's tour overall. yes he blew up on the galibier after spending the entire race attacking instead of saving himself like all the rest did but he was once again super strong the following day with the fastest ascent of the Alpe. If last year's tour didn't have a TTT and that crazy accident on stage 1, samu would be on the podium maybe even on the top step.

Disagree. He was neither by the aggregate time (the most objective criteria) nor by pure strength. yeh, he could back some seconds in the Pyrenees, but exactly stage 1 gave him this opportunity. If he hadn't had that accident, he would have gained nothing in the Pyrenees.

Or, ok, let's look at this a bit differently. Who was a stronger climber in the 2011 Giro, Rujano or Scarponi?

 

[El Pistolero]

If Andy could follow Samuel Sanchez on Alpe Dhuez he would've done so. He sucked.

 

[cineteq]

Lol

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=17899

Check and mate.

Come on Hitch this is the best you can do? You give me numbers from 2010?

Think like this: What have you done lately to backup those numbers?
The reason I rate Schleck so low is not just because of his TT and downhill abilities, but also for his lack of mental strength and tactical common sense, year preparation, RSNT in disarray, etc.

 

[greenedge]

Please don't forget that Evans is 35 now.He already was the oldest winner of the last 40 years. So I don't believe he can keep his form for 3 weeks at this age.

Sanchez is 34 and he was not good in 2011 Grand tours. May be he can but he is not the best climber and not the best TT.

Andy Schleck lost 2001 TDF because he worked for Franck and lost about 2 minutes because of it.
Nibali will be second and hope Menchov will be 3rd. Van den Broeck 4th and Cadel 5th.

This course suits Evans a lot!!! Also he has constantly been placing at GT's. He is the defending champ and will take motivation from that.

That's because Samu only did one GT last year ( the TDF ) where got 6th ( 5th ), won the KOM and a stage. If only he had not failed in the first week/ on Galibier.

I did not see Andy once actively work for Frank in last years TDF.

 

[guncha]

This course suits Evans a lot!!!

TDF 09 route didn't suit Andy. However, he destroyed everyone but Contador in the race. As far as mountain stages are concerned TDF 09 could be even worse than TDF 12 - just one proper multiple climb stage and three single climb stages. In comparison TDF 12 has three proper multiple climb stages + an MTF in Vosges + 4 stages with small climbs at the end of the stage. If Andy is about to lose TDF 12 it will be because of bad form not the route.

P.S. Please don't think I like TDF 12 route - it has too many money collecting mountain stages which finishes in walleys with hard climbs too far from finish.

 

[airstream]

I think many people will be surprised how easily Andy will take this Tour. Though seemingly no one will agree with me. )

 

[therhodeo]

I think many people will be surprised how easily Andy will take this Tour. Though seemingly no one will agree with me. )

I think you are right. If he takes it easily alot of us will be surprised. And surprise would immediately give way to suspicion and further hate of Brunyeel.

 

[Nick C.]

I think many people will be surprised how easily Andy will take this Tour. Though seemingly no one will agree with me. )

If he rides like he did on the Madeleine or Tourmalet stages of 2010 much less 2009 where he and Contador put minutes into the field I'd have to agree (or Galibier stage though that was more desperation break than riding away from everyone who had every reason to chase right then and there)

 

[Caruut]

I think you are right. If he takes it easily alot of us will be surprised. And surprise would immediately give way to suspicion and further hate of Brunyeel.

Learn the ways of the clinic will you!

Easily winning leads to surprise. Surprise leads to suspicion. Suspicion leads to hatred, and that is that path to the dark side.

 

[killswitch]

If Menchov doesn't lose time in the first week in crashes and bad positioning (echelons) he could win the Tour in the final flat TT.

**** Menchov, Wiggins, Cuddles
*** Andy, Samu, Nibali, Gesink
** Rolland, VDB2, LL, Kloden (Papy Horner)

Learn the ways of the clinic will you!

Easily winning leads to surprise. Surprise leads to suspicion. Suspicion leads to hatred, and that is that path to the dark side.

Stop tarnishing our image . We offer everything from cookies, rice cakes, opium cakes, tea (special recipe by granma Simoni), medicine for dogs to suitcases for three week Tours.

 

[Carols]

I think many people will be surprised how easily Andy will take this Tour. Though seemingly no one will agree with me. )

I won't be surprised...I'll be in Shock

 

[karlboss]

I think many people will be surprised how easily Andy will take this Tour. Though seemingly no one will agree with me. )

Depends on how he wins it easily, if on 3 MTFs he takes 2 minutes each one and then loses less than 2 minutes in the TTs yes I'll be surprised.

If he takes 15-30 seconds on each of the 3 MTFs and then 3+ minutes on a long breakaways, due to his climbing strength, cooperation with Nibali/Sanchez etc, the strength of his team, lack of a cohesive chase behind and then drops 4 minutes in each TT, not so surprised.

 

[dlwssonic]

its irritating wiggins is rated so highly for the tdf.
He still has not shown anything on the big climbs and its not like this tour has any lack of it.

I wonder how sky will manage their leadout for cav and protection of wiggins.
Geraint will be one tired man.

 

[The Hitch]

its irritating wiggins is rated so highly for the tdf.
He still has not shown anything on the big climbs and its not like this tour has any lack of it.

I wonder how sky will manage their leadout for cav and protection of wiggins.
Geraint will be one tired man.

In case you missed it, Gerraint has other business. He will not be doing the Tour, he will be preparing for the mother of all track showdowns against the ozzies with a gold medal, at the grandest stage of them all, at stake.

Secondly, Cav, having won the green last year, and having also far more important business on his mind - the first gold of the grandest stage of them all.

He might care for the green. If i were in his shoes i would not (can go for it another 10 times, can only go for a home olympic gold which is 100 x bigger once), .

But from what has been said, it is likely that he wont care for it enough.

And even if he does, staying on the front is something that suits both riders. Dont need to split the team in that regard.

 

[karlboss]

its irritating wiggins is rated so highly for the tdf.
He still has not shown anything on the big climbs and its not like this tour has any lack of it.

I wonder how sky will manage their leadout for cav and protection of wiggins.
Geraint will be one tired man.

If Sky was my team, I'd dedicate 1 man only to cavendish, and never attempt a leadout train, just work off the other teams' trains. To pull back breaks, Sky aren't the only team with an interest in a sprint, just place one of your other riders to help chase the break. Most likely the team will be riding close to the front to protect Wiggins anyway.
Having said Cavendish is guaranteed wins, Wiggins is the gamble.

 

[airstream]

its irritating wiggins is rated so highly for the tdf.
He still has not shown anything on the big climbs and its not like this tour has any lack of it.

I wonder how sky will manage their leadout for cav and protection of wiggins.
Geraint will be one tired man.

Cavendish has such a non-real store that in substance lead-out has only a nominal significance. He's able to win even being badly positioning. Nowadays the sprinter field is absolutely demoralized. I observe Cav in the Giro and he is far from his perfection, I bet he's prepared probably at 80% compared how he feels in the Tour, but even that's more than enough to get multiple victories. Sky will use Eisel to bring Cav into an attacking position and one guy (maybe, Pate) for overtaking breakaways. Though in theory Pate is unrequired too as most likely that catching breaks will be implemented by Lotto, Lampre and QuickStep. Sky are overly motivated. I'm a bit surprised how easily they sacrifice the other strong guys' season, but seems like everyone dreams of 1 thing - to ride the Tour and help Wiggins. It will be interesting to look at them.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

its irritating wiggins is rated so highly for the tdf.
He still has not shown anything on the big climbs and its not like this tour has any lack of it.

I wonder how sky will manage their leadout for cav and protection of wiggins.
Geraint will be one tired man.

he is certainly overrated. That is hardly surprising tho.

He still has it all to prove on not specifically the big climbs but the multiple climbs. Last vuelta was a perfect course for the a rider of his type; every mountain stage was basically a 1 climb show. Reserve energy and ride a consistent pace on the single climb.

Few of the tour stages are going to crack him, I'm certain. But with this many tt km, he really only needs to limit his loses. He'll probably take 6-7minutes over schleck and like climbers. Way too many tt km.
But let us hope the other teams really make most of every incline.

I dont think he will win, but if he ever will, it will be this year.

 

[Archibald]

if he ever will, it will be this year.

wasn't that what was being touted about schlecklet last year?

 

[greenedge]

Geraint will be one tired man.

He won't be there.