TDF Sprints & Green Jersey

[Boardslide]

Nope, this has been Cav's best climbing year, at least on a year to date basis.

Survived MSR fine but lacked teammates at the end. Attacking on hills at the 3 days of de-panne. Strong in the Giro & Nationals.

Clearly off right at the moment thought, so hopefully he's feeling a little better on Wednesday.

He' been on antibiotics as stated below from OPQS blog

Mark Cavendish

"Today I felt a little bit better than yesterday," Cavendish said. "Unfortunately last week I had to take antibiotics until this Sunday, due to bronchitis. Now I'm better, even if not 100 percent. We will see day-by-day."

 

[Flamin]

Right, adding some extra conditions. Survived this one with ease some weeks ago.

Harder to survive the Marseille kind of stage in the Tour than that stage in il Giro.

Nope, this has been Cav's best climbing year, at least on a year to date basis.

Don't agree.

Have you actually changed the size ratio to make Wednesday look harder? The Steephill profile, linked direct from the Tour official site, gives a much more realistic idea. And then look at the specific climbs and there's nothing out of the ordinary.

They are both on the official Tour site? Marseille stage looks tougher on paper than it is, true, but it's still clearly harder than Cap Fréhel.

 

[MartinGT]

Does anyone expect Cav NOT to finish this tour?

 

[Old School]

[Does anyone expect Cav NOT to finish this tour?[/QUOTE


It would be a HUGE dissapointment if he abandons without a stage victory. Having moved to a team that is 100% behind him...there would be a alot of bashing.

I think he soldiers home to Paris.

 

[wirral]

Does anyone expect Cav NOT to finish this tour?

What makes you think he won't finish? He tends to finish GT's unless he is really really struggling (Vuelta 2011) or it is a pre-planned exit (Giro 2011).

 

[The Principal Sheep]

Does anyone expect Cav NOT to finish this tour?

Obviously injuries and accidents appear from nowhere but I think he's on the mend rather than getting worse. He seems genuinely excited to win the reworked Paris route which includes going round the Arc de Triomphe, that along with another green jersey and the support of his team should be enough to keep him involved.

 

[puffin]

OPQS with a lot of work over the next few days! On the plus side Tony must be fairly okay.

Edit: Although Orica or BMC could change that....

 

[richard_91]

Orica winning will be a big boost for Cav and OPQS as they will be chasing every break like their season depends on it, he says he started feeling better last night so another good day and sleep and I'd expect him to try and take stage 6, then a couple more days where he can take it easy before getting his challenge fully underway.
He started while not feeling well so dont think he'd drop out unless something serious happens to him

 

[Poursuivant]

Cavendish's odds for the Green have gone right out. How do you see the race for Green?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

So far, stage 1 was a big hit for Cav, whilst stage 3 and 4 were decent for Sagan, although he obviously dropped a few points.

Next 3 days will be crucial - Cav needs to be up there tomorrow.

Certainly, if Sagan's sprinting is on the level we've seen in the hilly stages (i.e. same as Gerrens, a little better than Kwia) then his 49 point lead can be easily wiped out in next 3 days, but until we see what actually happens in an undisrupted sprint it's all conjecture.

Betfair odds have a habit of having the attention span of a midgie, so don't be surprised to see them bounce around. The reality is that Sagan needs to be ahead, and he is. The crash on stage 1 means he's a little more ahead than he likely would have been.

 

[Poursuivant]

Think Cavendish needs to win at least two of the next three stages.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Think Cavendish needs to win at least two of the next three stages.

Agree.

Historical run rates would suggest he will, but it will be far from easy.

 

[Poursuivant]

Agree.

Historical run rates would suggest he will, but it will be far from easy.

Yes, and Fridays stage looks really good for Sagan, so tomorrow and Thursday could be crucial for Cavendish.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I'd say tomorrow is better for Sagan than Friday.

Friday's climbs are actually pretty moderate %, and a long long long way from the finish - last 30 km a very easy run in. Cannondale don't have the strength to make it hard all day, and Cav will be nearly a week from his anti-biotics, so if he isn't climbing back at his Giro form by then, he can only blame crap season planning.

 

[Netserk]

I agree with WS. I'd actually say that Friday is the stage that suits him best.

 

[Poursuivant]

I'd say tomorrow is better for Sagan than Friday.

Friday's climbs are actually pretty moderate %, and a long long long way from the finish - last 30 km a very easy run in. Cannondale don't have the strength to make it hard all day, and Cav will be nearly a week from his anti-biotics, so if he isn't climbing back at his Giro form by then, he can only blame crap season planning.

Hmm, yeah, the climbs on Friday are quite far from the finish, but Cav will have to improve his climbing. To be fair I think a massive part of that was his bronchitis, if he is back to relative normality, the climbs tomorrow shouldn't be much of a problem for him. Next week should see it become close between Cav and Sagan but I can see Sagan going in a break for points on a stage like Alpe d'Huez as sprint section is before monster climbs.

 

[MartinGT]

What makes you think he won't finish? He tends to finish GT's unless he is really really struggling (Vuelta 2011) or it is a pre-planned exit (Giro 2011).

I think he will finish. A mate seems to think he wont as its too difficult for him with the mountain stages to come?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Rumours of Cav's demise were premature then.

35 points behind now. Assuming Kittel and Greipel get involved again tomorrow and Friday, Cav has a decent shot at Green by Friday.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Incidentally, after all of Greipel's efforts at intermediates, he is now 11 points behind Cav.

 

[puffin]

Rumours of Cav's demise were premature then.

35 points behind now. Assuming Kittel and Greipel get involved again tomorrow and Friday, Cav has a decent shot at Green by Friday.

I never doubted him .
I think he and OPQS will just get stronger as well.

If Cav now dominates the sprints in this tdf sprinting field it will be very, very impressive.

 

[Netserk]

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

5 Obvious sprints left, then Friday and Lyon, both of which I would expect Cav to sprint as well given today's performance, unless the climbs in Lyon are hiding much more difficulty than the road book suggests.

Sagan has Sunday, but after that there don't look too many stages he'll reach the finish in the front group - Gap is the only other possible one.

If Cav is on form and doesn't have any more bad luck, he's actually in a very good position.

Today's finish was a very good result for Sagan and he still lost 15 points. If Cav has a good run he could quickly get in front, and there aren't make obvious places for Sagan to take back ground.

 

[puffin]

Great sprint to watch today, the number of trains jockeying for position was incredible. Trentin and Steegmans were awesome. Griepel lost Henderson's wheel, managed to get behind Cav then make no progress. Sagan came from further back and was impressive.

Based on initial injuries Cav and Sagan will both improve as well.

Although Boardman reckoned they all had the same speed after fanning out, it was Cav's leadout that won it and they are all about equal. I disagree but think it will be closer in subsequent sprints.

We've had the first proper sprint, bring on tomorrow and add Kittel to the mix.

 

[puffin]

Sagan has Sunday, but after that there don't look too many stages he'll reach the finish in the front group - Gap is the only other possible one.

Sagan will pick up additional intermediate points in several of the intermediate stages on mountain stages. I wonder if he will get into breaks to do so (think Hushovd 2009). I think it depends how close to a clean sweep of the sprints Cav can get. Its a big ask (but possible) for Cav to beat Sagan to Green. Even after today I think he will lose a stage or two which he contests.

 

[Afrank]

Sagan will pick up additional intermediate points in several of the intermediate stages on mountain stages. I wonder if he will get into breaks to do so (think Hushovd 2009). I think it depends how close to a clean sweep of the sprints Cav can get. Its a big ask (but possible) for Cav to beat Sagan to Green. Even after today I think he will lose a stage or two which he contests.

I think he probably will have too. He definitely will have too if Cavendish and Omega continues to perform and sprint like they did today.