TDF Stage 14 - Sunday, July 18 2010, Revel - Ax-3 Domaines, 184 km

[The Hitch]

Putting this up a bit early, because this has the makings of a great stage, could turn out to be the best of this years tour and arguably the hardest.

With the identical characteristic of a hc summit 30 km from the end followed by a descent, this has many similarities to the grand stage we had on tuesday, over the madeline.

Only this time the descent is followed by a steep catergory 1 climb. Dare i say it, it has many similarities to the epic mortirolo stage in the giro.

Considering the situation we have in the gc, no way are they going to soft pedal up these climbs. Schleck cant afford to wait for the Tourmalet mtf, and this is his biggest chance before that. Lots of other gc standings to sort out.

The real fun, is only about to begin...

 

[Cobblestones]

After all my failed predictions I'll play it safe and predict...

It ain't gonna be a bunch sprint.

 

[sometriguy]

After all my failed predictions I'll play it safe and predict...

It ain't gonna be a bunch sprint.

Cav, FTW!!!

But really, this is the stage that AC breaks AS and wins the stage.

 

[mitchell84]

maybe basso and kreuziger might try something here

 

[The Hitch]

maybe basso and kreuziger might try something here

dont count on it. As much as i would really like Kreuziger to step up, atm they are just not strong enough. I cant see Szmyd doing them any good here either, since AS and AC and SS can easily cope with whatever pace he sets.

 

[sometriguy]

Putting this up a bit early, because this has the makings of a great stage, could turn out to be the best of this years tour and arguably the hardest.



With the identical characteristic of a hc summit 30 km from the end followed by a descent, this has many similarities to the grand stage we had on tuesday, over the madeline.

Only this time the descent is followed by a steep catergory 1 climb. Dare i say it, it has many similarities to the epic mortirolo stage in the giro.

Considering the situation we have in the gc, no way are they going to soft pedal up these climbs. Schleck cant afford to wait for the Tourmalet mtf, and this is his biggest chance before that. Lots of other gc standings to sort out.

The real fun, is only about to begin...

I agree with you Hitch, I think this may be the stage to remember.

My guess is AC grabs yellow here, and AS attacks again and again on tourmalet and is never able to get away (similar to ventoux).

 

[Anonymous]

Final kilometres

 

[theyoungest]

You'd expect this to be the decisive Pyrenees stage, maybe together with the Tourmalet. Although I don't really get the Mortirolo comparison. Totally different stage. Yes, ok, it had mountains as well.

 

[Nickbeam]

i hope Denis can stay with the fav's tomorrow (i mean ac and as), he showed some real good riding in the last stages, so i think he can do it. also i wanna see Ges up there with him too. i don't believe in Liqui. Szmyd looks like he's too tired after the Giro and Dauphine. Basso's out of the top 10. i expect some good riding from VdBroeck and Samu, but don't see them with the top 2 guys. Levy... well he'll find his wheel fosho

 

[Carl0880]

i hope Denis can stay with the fav's tomorrow (i mean ac and as), he showed some real good riding in the last stages, so i think he can do it. also i wanna see Ges up there with him too. i don't believe in Liqui. Szmyd looks like he's too tired after the Giro and Dauphine. Basso's out of the top 10. i expect some good riding from VdBroeck and Samu, but don't see them with the top 2 guys. Levy... well he'll find his wheel fosho

This will sort out who are the remaining contenders for the last podium spot. Be interesting is to see if one of the back half of the Top 10 maybe tries get away at the top of the HC climb and descend quickly and try to steal some time away. There is almost no flat between the 2 mountains. I doubt he will, but Samuel Sanchez trying this would make this an very interesting stage. Maybe have a teammate of in the break to where he can maybe join up with him on the last climb for a km or 2 of rest.

 

[Nickbeam]

This will sort out who are the remaining contenders for the last podium spot. Be interesting is to see if one of the back half of the Top 10 maybe tries get away at the top of the HC climb and descend quickly and try to steal some time away. There is almost no flat between the 2 mountains. I doubt he will, but Samuel Sanchez trying this would make this an very interesting stage. Maybe have a teammate of in the break to where he can maybe join up with him on the last climb for a km or 2 of rest.

sounds like a good plan for Samu. but i really doubt Andy will let him go, Samu is down by 2.43 in the gc, the margin is not that huge, and samu has the advantage in the TT. but who knows

 

[Parbar]

With no GC aspirations now, will HTC set up Cav for the intermediate sprints? With the work he's done on improving his climbing, would Cav still get over the HC climb in the time limit? Or does he need to take it easy prior to that climb in order to finish on time?

 

[ericthesportsman6]

With no GC aspirations now, will HTC set up Cav for the intermediate sprints? With the work he's done on improving his climbing, would Cav still get over the HC climb in the time limit? Or does he need to take it easy prior to that climb in order to finish on time?

no,yes,yes

 

[Ryaguas]

Ok guys... every man have a moment in his life where he has to show what he is made from and that moment for the GC contenders is tomorrow...

Winners: pffff you don't even have to think about it... El Pistolero is going to break all the legs tomorrow...
Darkhorses: SSanchez, AS, VdB and Kreuziger...

Well is pretty clear that a breakaway is not going to make it... we can see tomorrow a battle for the intermediate sprints and almost all the important teams sending domestiques to have support in the high mountains... If Basso or Kreuziger want something well they have to put Liquigas to work... but tomorrow we are going to see Astana breaking legs early in the mountain, we can expect a group of 7 o 8 riders climbing together but when AS starts the attacks the only ppl who can following will be AC, Samu and VdB maybe Kreuziger but we have to see how are their legs tomorrow...

If AC see a sing of weakness from AS he will kill him and break his legs into little pieces AC has been waiting this climbs now AS has to prove that he is the best climber... AC is not going to attack in Le Port de Pailheres, the killer attack is going to be in the MTF... I can see him winning the stage and wearing La maillot jaune after this stage...

Here you have the profiles of the 2 climbs...

Le Port de Pailheres

Ax -3 Domaines

 

[DenisMenchov]

This is the stage nobody knows how it will finish. HC and category 1 mountain top finish are always great combination. Personally i would love to see someone from TOP15 attack early on HC climb and make some big gap to the favourites group then downhill like Salvodeli and manage to maintain some time on Ax3 and win the stage. Also I wouldn`t like to see AC and AS going out alone actually I wouldn`t like to see any of these two making some time here, I`m praying they will both suffer, suffer a lot and lose time, big time. AC will crumble, that must happen once, and Andy, well, he never performed well in the Pyrenees, did he?

 

[jazzcyclist]

Yellow and Green jersey stage

With both of the intermediate sprints coming before the the first mountain, tomorrow's stage could be one of those rare stages where both the sprinters and GC contenders come out to play on the same day. If Hushovd tries to get in a breakaway, I would expect Pettachi to cover the move. On the other hand, if the peleton is together for the sprints, Hushovd, Pettachi and Cavendish will all be forced to mix it up.

 

[icefire]

I see Sastre trying as if he was 7 years younger to have the road telling him the truth. That was an epic stage with Jan getting to just 15" after Lance in GC.

 

[Cobblestones]

With both of the intermediate sprints coming before the the first mountain, tomorrow's stage could be one of those rare stages where both the sprinters and GC contenders come out to play on the same day. If Hushovd tries to get in a breakaway, I would expect Pettachi to cover the move. On the other hand, if the peleton is together for the sprints, Hushovd, Pettachi and Cavendish will all be forced to mix it up.

I don't think the peloton will stay together for 50 or 100 km.

 

[the vagabond]

I disagree that a breakaway can't succeed. You have 140 km with no climbing before the HC climb. Saxo is too tired to seriously control and Astana is no longer desperate for a stage win, so a break could get 15 minutes or more under the right circumstances. I'd like to see Horner have a go - he seems to be getting stronger.

 

[The Hitch]

You'd expect this to be the decisive Pyrenees stage, maybe together with the Tourmalet. Although I don't really get the Mortirolo comparison. Totally different stage. Yes, ok, it had mountains as well.

It has a very similar last 50km and thats what caused the fireworks on that particular stage in may.

Hc climb starting about 50 km out. Long steep grind to the top.The summit is reached at about 30km immediately followed by a long descent down the same hc climb. The descent ends about 15 km from the end and another, less severe but difficult nonetheless climb begins. It is at the top of this climb that the stage ends.

To paraphrase Ulrich, anyone who cant put one and one together about the similarity of the last 50km of these 2 stages is beyond my help.

 

[mitchell84]

Final kilometres

I didn't realise the last climb tomorrow is this steep, think tomorrow will be brutal, will be interesting to see who attacks and when,

 

[mitchell84]

With no GC aspirations now, will HTC set up Cav for the intermediate sprints? With the work he's done on improving his climbing, would Cav still get over the HC climb in the time limit? Or does he need to take it easy prior to that climb in order to finish on time?

Cav has said he won't go for intermediate sprints as there are not enough points for using all his team to set him up

 

[mitchell84]

This is the stage nobody knows how it will finish. HC and category 1 mountain top finish are always great combination. Personally i would love to see someone from TOP15 attack early on HC climb and make some big gap to the favourites group then downhill like Salvodeli and manage to maintain some time on Ax3 and win the stage. Also I wouldn`t like to see AC and AS going out alone actually I wouldn`t like to see any of these two making some time here, I`m praying they will both suffer, suffer a lot and lose time, big time. AC will crumble, that must happen once, and Andy, well, he never performed well in the Pyrenees, did he?

i think AC can have a bad day but Giro 08 showed he can limit his losses when not on song

 

[Moondance]

Chances are that best of climbing buddies Schleck and Contador finish together. Here's hoping that Gesink can suck their wheels and outsprint them.... Wont happen, but a man may dream.

Only question is whether someone abitious (like Sanchez maybe) already attacks on the Pailheres and tries to make the difference on the descent perhaps. Should produce some good racing; that final climb is Giro-level nasty.

 

[theyoungest]

It has a very similar last 50km and thats what caused the fireworks on that particular stage in may.

Hc climb starting about 50 km out. Long steep grind to the top.The summit is reached at about 30km immediately followed by a long descent down the same hc climb. The descent ends about 15 km from the end and another, less severe but difficult nonetheless climb begins. It is at the top of this climb that the stage ends.

To paraphrase Ulrich, anyone who cant put one and one together about the similarity of the last 50km of these 2 stages is beyond my help.

Apart from the fact that the Mortirolo was preceded by another tough climb and followed by a much easier climb than the one they'll finish on tomorrow, yes, you're completely right...