TDF Stage 16 - Tuesday, July 20 2010, Bagnères-de-Luchon - Pau, 196 km

[ericthesportsman6]

Someone check my math... but is it correct that there are 90 mountain points on tap for today?

Could someone come out of nowhere relatively speaking to get in play in the polkadot competition? Charteau only has 115 points... technically it might be possible for Paulinho, Garate or Voight to get in the break and walk away with the jersey or nearly having it.

I'm kind of routing for Moreau though.

Yea someone who hasn't even bothered for the points the entire race could come out of nowhere and be a threat. Should be a large breakaway, Cunego, Pineau, Charteau, and Moreau will probably all be in there.

 

[riobonito92]

Sometimes you race for second, sometimes you race to win - so Mr Schleck, which is it? If you want to win this thing, set your boys off from the beginning, shred the bunch, get rid of the domestiques and then it will be you and Alberto and Denis and Sammy out front. Drop them on the final climb and don't look back.

Of course, this is suicidal madness, it will probably fail and you will end up fifth on GC but you are young - GO FOR IT! After today, we will cheer you all the way. You may go down, but you will go down a hero.

Oh, and probably win the KoM along the way.

 

[ericthesportsman6]

Sometimes you race for second, sometimes you race to win - so Mr Schleck, which is it? If you want to win this thing, set your boys off from the beginning, shred the bunch, get rid of the domestiques and then it will be you and Alberto and Denis and Sammy out front. Drop them on the final climb and don't look back.

Of course, this is suicidal madness, it will probably fail and you will end up fifth on GC but you are young - GO FOR IT! After today, we will cheer you all the way. You may go down, but you will go down a hero.

Oh, and probably win the KoM along the way.

Why not? His tactics so far have been very, all or nothing so far. He doesn't seem interested in the podium, given his disregard toward Sanchez and Menchov.

 

[armstrong]

So what idiot put both sprints after all the four climbs?

So the rider who gets all the polka dot points will get all the green jersey points too...

??

 

[TourOfSardinia]

I would like to see people from just outside top 10 to attack to improve the GC position.

Time for Basso to move forward rather than backward!

 

[hrotha]

If I keep saying Cunego for the win it might come true.

 

[riobonito92]

If I keep saying Cunego for the win it might come true.

If I keep saying the points competition will be decided by someone finishing outside the time limit it might come true.

 

[roundabout]

Time for Basso to move forward rather than backward!

Basso looked done today, he isn't going anywhere.

 

[BroDeal]

If I keep saying Cunego for the win it might come true.

I hope so, but he should have soft pedaled more today.

 

[DenisMenchov]

If I keep saying Cunego for the win it might come true.

Doesn`t have anything to do with you, just Cunego

 

[The Hitch]

If Moreau is going into a break, might Caisse try another one of their, Arroyo LL sanchez all or nothing breaks, just for kicks.
Surely a few teams, - sky, bmc, caisse, have nothing to lose by trying it.

Put flecha and thomas up the road, then wiggins goes on a break like hi tried in vain in the giro, and they help him out.

Would get them up in the gc.

 

[Carl0880]

IF I recall right wasn't the Ausbisque on the stage that Riis attacked going into Pamplona that ended any chance Indurain had? That stage had more flat profile in the back half of the race. It would nice just once to see someone to do a similar style attack, a Big Risk Big Reward type attack.

 

[turtlesoup]

the organizers might have killed a magnificent stage with the long straight at the end. big break away to win christophe moreau.

 

[The Hitch]

Sometimes you race for second, sometimes you race to win - so Mr Schleck, which is it? If you want to win this thing, set your boys off from the beginning, shred the bunch, get rid of the domestiques and then it will be you and Alberto and Denis and Sammy out front. Drop them on the final climb and don't look back.

Of course, this is suicidal madness, it will probably fail and you will end up fifth on GC but you are young - GO FOR IT! After today, we will cheer you all the way. You may go down, but you will go down a hero.

Oh, and probably win the KoM along the way.

If this happens, i will become a schleck fanboy.

What we need, what the world needs, is for the big 4 to isolate themselves, like they have done a few times already, on one of the earlier climbs and battle it out on the rest of the stage.

Whatever happens from then on, it will be the best 4 hours of cycling ever.

90% likely however, is that everyone soft pedals all the way to the finish, and a meaningless breakaway wins it.

 

[The Hitch]

IF I recall right wasn't the Ausbisque on the stage that Riis attacked going into Pamplona that ended any chance Indurain had? That stage had more flat profile in the back half of the race. It would nice just once to see someone to do a similar style attack, a Big Risk Big Reward type attack.

I think they should have flat at the end, but perhaps they have 20k too much.

The point is more to tire them out before the main event on thursday.

 

[Jamsque]

Tire people out before the rest day? Sure.

They should have run this stage in the opposite direction.

 

[The Hitch]

Tire people out before the rest day? Sure.

They should have run this stage in the opposite direction.

Well i dont expect much from the organisers anyway, particularly after last years snooze fest, and also because this year is considered to be some major mountain course when in fact, every year should be minimum like this.

But with the mts in the last 30km of every mountain stage so far i figured they were going to mess up at least 1 stage and today is that stage.

And the riders will feel those 4 climbs in their legs on thursday, rest day or no rest day.

 

[Connor Pass]

I think Christophe Moreau might win - I think he'll definitely be in the break as he's looked keen enough on challenging for the KoM jersey. Nicolas Roche may give it a go too - he was unlucky today and is not too happy about Gadret not waiting for him.

The breakaway will probably be about 25-30 riders - it would be interesting if Euskaltel or Rabobank or both sent up riders in the breakaway with a view to Menchov or Samu attacking the leaders. Probably will be like last year's stage where it very nearly ended in a bunch sprint with Freire and Rojas involved!

 

[{the_crow}]

I really dont understand the 70km "flat" untill the end... the rythm of the peloton will be very slow.. a break will win this.. unless Saxo bank put's on a burning out tatics...setting a high tempo..after a break goes on.. then in finnal climb andy goes for it and tries to catch the break guys..and tries to go there all the way..

ok.. too daring tatic

 

[The Barb]

Agree that the long run in to the finish minimises the relevance of this stage as far as Schleck and Contador go, and makes it likely to be won by a breakaway.

It'll still be interesting to see who goes for the stage win by getting in a break. I doubt anyone within ten minutes of the lead would be given much leeway. Similarly, the number of tough climbs rules out pure domestiques and the run in after the final climb will require good descending skills and time trialling ability.

I therefore think the best candidates are Evans, Gadret and possibly even Wiggins, all of whom have have little to ride for now other than stage wins and don't have obligations to a leader high in the GC.

 

[The Barb]

Should have added Armstrong in there too - obviously.

If he doesn't try to get something out of this stage then this Tour has been a total waste.

I do hope, however, that if he tries to get in a break one of the other teams will ensure it gets quickly nullified - just on principle.

 

[Dedelou]

really?

the 70k flat to the finish doesnt put you off?

this is a traditionnal finish to Pau. The last 70 kilometers only matter for the GC contenders if they failed to compete during the 4 monster climbs. Not sure i am making my point clear , so let me try again. there is enough though climbing in that stage to beat your oponent at whatever range you are fighting.. So Contador , Shleck , Menchow, Sanchez all have a chance to have enough time on their opponent by the last summint to maintain time all the way to Pau.. In some way this stage is the true combination of mountain climbing and ITT in one stage.

 

[hrotha]

this is a traditionnal finish to Pau. The last 70 kilometers only matter for the GC contenders if they failed to compete during the 4 monster climbs. Not sure i am making my point clear , so let me try again. there is enough though climbing in that stage to beat your oponent at whatever range you are fighting.. So Contador , Shleck , Menchow, Sanchez all have a chance to have enough time on their opponent by the last summint to maintain time all the way to Pau.. In some way this stage is the true combination of mountain climbing and ITT in one stage.

Yep. Pamplona stage, 1996. I think there were some 100 Km from Larrau to the finish. The eight strongest guys on Larrau made it to the finish with over 8 minutes on the next group. They ended up being the eight top placed riders in Paris.

If things go right and the favourites who make it alive work together, this could be epic.

But chances are it won't.

 

[Dedelou]

Someone check my math... but is it correct that there are 90 mountain points on tap for today?

Could someone come out of nowhere relatively speaking to get in play in the polkadot competition? Charteau only has 115 points... technically it might be possible for Paulinho, Garate or Voight to get in the break and walk away with the jersey or nearly having it.

I'm kind of routing for Moreau though.

any of these people have a chance for sure if the do a Merxc , a virenque or a Jalabert move:2 Jérôme Pineau (Fra) Quick Step 92
3 Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Bbox Bouygues Telecom 82
4 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 76
5 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana 76
6 Samuel Sánchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 72
7 Christophe Moreau (Fra) Caisse d'Epargne 68
8 Mario Aerts (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 65
9 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre-Farnese Vini 63
10 Christophe Riblon (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 60
11 Sandy Casar (Fra) Française des Jeux 56
12 Luis León Sánchez Gil (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 48
13 Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Quick Step 47
14 Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank 46
15 Rafael Valls Ferri (Spa) Footon-Servetto 46
16 Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 42
17 Aitor Perez Arrieta (Spa) Footon-Servetto 42
18 Brian Vandborg (Den) Liquigas-Doimo 39
19 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank 38
20 Vasili Kiryienka (Blr) Caisse d'Epargne 38
21 Alessandro Ballan (Ita) BMC Racing Team 36
22 Johan Van Summeren (Bel) Garmin - Transitions 35
23 Mathieu Perget (Fra) Caisse d'Epargne 34

 

[Dedelou]

I think this is a stroke of genious. It breaks the pattern of "let's all ride together slowly until the last 20 minutes" that you usually get. This is saying "if you are man enough to attack early and hard you could win the TdF".

the so called flat kilometers in the end would suprised a few if you had to ride them. The terrain is more like a constants little ups and down and should not be that easy with tired legs. What makes this stage special is that a climber can attack from the start of the stage . The road goes up immediately. Any team who feels strong should remember that and use it for it is rare. ALL mountain stages are made of flats and climbs but which is harder : climb first and have the flats at the end, or have 80 kilometers of long flat before the climbing at the end of the stage like we saw in the alps and the other day.