TDF Stage 9 - Tuesday, July 13 2010, Morzine-Avoriaz - Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne, 204 k

[ericthesportsman6]

I seriously doubt that the real GC contenders are concerned about the polka dot jersey. I prefer mountain top finishes. They are much more exciting. The last downhill/flat finish that was really exciting was probably Landis' win in a late stage in 2006--when he made up lots of time. It was one of the greatest finishes ever until AFTER the tour that year.

Did you not watch this year's Giro? Downhill finishes definately can be exciting. This problem with this stage is the 10km of flat after the downhill, but it could still be a good stage.

 

[Scirea]

Wow Rodriguez is so overrated.
You do know he dropped at the end right?

He dropped because he was the only one to really attack on that mountain. He is way stronger than Sastre for example, who came in with the first group.

 

[Scirea]

Cancellaras not that bad a climber. We dont see him do it in gts because he has no motivation to. He wont be able to help Andy Schleck on the col de la madeline but evene if the breakaway gets caught and passed on the climb, if they are close enough, canc can take back time on the descent and help andy on the flat.
Its a good idea, and possibly worth it. Afterall, cancellara isnt really needed till stage 20 (when he gets them a bit of money with a stage win).

Not a bad climber? Remember the day he lost the yellow to Chavanel? And that wasn't even a mountain, it was a hill...

 

[Scirea]

I will never quite understand why they don't end the stage on top of the Madelaine, and just drop the last 30 km.

But anyways, maybe Vino tries something crazy tomorrow?

Because Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne paid good money for the finish + the director is a moron.

 

[Scirea]

I'm not sure it would be that bad, Saxo Bank could and IMO should not actually defend the jersey from anyone who isn't a legitimate threat. Let some medium descent climber like Chavanel have it, Quick Step or any other non-GC team would love to spend energy defending the jersey for 3 more days, and Andy could take it back on stage 14.

Days in the yellow are money and even more money for a sponsor like BMC. They won't just give it up because they would never get it back. No way Cadel hangs on with AC and Andy in the Pyrenees.

 

[Scirea]

AGAIN!!!!
- wake up people!!!
This is a race and it is importent who wears the yellow yersey in Paris!!!!
But today will have the GC contenders 20 minuts back before Madeleine!!!
Why??
1. Because there is no point in using energy with 30 clicks downhill/flat at the end. The risks is higher than the gain!!!
2. The leader has a team who can not ( and do not want to) control the race untill Paris.

The break-away goes all the way.
There will be some attacks from the second best GC-riders in the peleton up Madeleine, and some of them might get a minut on others GC-riders... So what !!!! AS, AC, Evans will ride together all the way!!!

Noone will use team energy if they do not see a gain!!! And today noone will risk anything!!!

And remember RAIN and COLD changes everything!!!!!

No way they will be down 20 minutes when the start the Madeleine.

 

[VeloLIVE]

Hi all! interview Popo Shak will attack

 

[Bennyl]

Days in the yellow are money and even more money for a sponsor like BMC. They won't just give it up because they would never get it back. No way Cadel hangs on with AC and Andy in the Pyrenees.

Well said. Once the yellow jersey comes of Cadels shoulders, he won't get it back. Hopefully he somehow survives tonight and holds it until stage 14 when there will be so many attacks it will be utter mahem.

I have noticed that the 2 stages prior to 14 both have 2 and 3 category climbs just before the finish. This years Giro saw attacks from the favourites (often instigated by Vino) trying to gain time of which Cadel was often apart of (as both of those are decent classics type riders). It just shows the difference between the Giro and the Tour where no one would dream of pulling a stunt like that due to the quality field and fast pace on the big mountain climbs.

What I wouldn't give to see that type of racing at the tour this year....

 

[Bennyl]

to add to that, if Cadel holds the yellow till stage 14 he should be an extremely happy man regardless of how he finishes the Tour considering his huge season to date..

 

[Barrus]

I thought from top to the finish line there were around 30kms and I guessed it was something like 20k of downhill.
Isnt it?

That's true, but unlike with the giro-stage I don't expect that only two riders will be chasing Nibali, if Sammy Sanchez goes, I think at least a group of 6-8 will be chasing

Another predicition: Vals Ferri is going for the polka dot again

 

[Scirea]

Karpest won't start today. Too many mountains.

 

[search]

Karpest won't start today. Too many mountains.

with a broken hand? Definitely

 

[auscyclefan94]

with a broken hand? Definitely

Nah, the hair regrowthment system went horribly wrong so he won't be starting today due to baldness.

 

[clearhop]

Schleck

Andy has to attack today with or without a summit finish - otherwise he has no chance in the final TT.

Schleck to attack, get some time then crash on the descent...

I reckon it'll end like that stage to Aix-Les-Bans in i think 89, with all the GC guys lining up for the sprint - Evans for the stage win, having been dropped before the top of the climb but gets back on the way down...

 

[LiboHC]

Forza Tiralongo and Navarro
Contador should rely on them rather Vinok. for today's mount. stage

 

[Rob_Roy]

Andy has to attack today with or without a summit finish - otherwise he has no chance in the final TT.

Schleck to attack, get some time then crash on the descent...

I reckon it'll end like that stage to Aix-Les-Bans in i think 89, with all the GC guys lining up for the sprint - Evans for the stage win, having been dropped before the top of the climb but gets back on the way down...

As a lot of others I believe that weather will be a huge risk factor.
If it rains and the roads get slippery...well I remember stage 2.
Schleck will also remember stage 2 I think..

Evans seems to like rough conditions so I think he will benefit more than the others from rain and cold weather.If he can add some more time on Contador it could be an interesting last week.

 

[badboyberty]

My predictions for the stage,

Raphael Valls (Valls Ferri for those who need to mention his Mum every time they talk about him), Aerts and at least one rider each from Cofidis and BBox in the break.

J Rodriguez attacking the lead group on the final climb and soloing for the win.

ACF crying foul when "The Australian" runs a head-line story about a sex scandal/murder over Cadel holding yellow.

Wonderlance telling us how Lance's ride for 65th will cure cancer and send the Scientologists back to Mars.

 

[RedZone]

AGAIN!!!!
- wake up people!!!
This is a race and it is importent who wears the yellow yersey in Paris!!!!
But today will have the GC contenders 20 minuts back before Madeleine!!!
Why??
1. Because there is no point in using energy with 30 clicks downhill/flat at the end. The risks is higher than the gain!!!
2. The leader has a team who can not ( and do not want to) control the race untill Paris.

The break-away goes all the way.
There will be some attacks from the second best GC-riders in the peleton up Madeleine, and some of them might get a minut on others GC-riders... So what !!!! AS, AC, Evans will ride together all the way!!!

Noone will use team energy if they do not see a gain!!! And today noone will risk anything!!!

And remember RAIN and COLD changes everything!!!!!

Wow, I didnt realize that something so predictable as pro cycling was not open to (my) opinion. I see your points, and maybe I am just being hopeful, but you seem to think that it is ironclad that the break has 20+ minutes at the base and goes all the way.

Couple of questions. I think a few teams will want to be in the breakaway today given the amount of points on offer, so if their guy ie Pineau doesnt get into the first couple of breaks, wont they be closed down?

Doesnt Astana try to break off some contenders like they did Sunday? they looked strong and Cadel and a couple others (ie Rogers) were hanging on for dear life by the end.

Also, if you say second rate GC contenders are to attack (I assume you mean guys like Sanchez, Kreuziger, Gesink etc.) Then the breakaway is gonna need 20 minutes to survive. Even 15 minutes can dissapear up a climb like the madeleine.

Also you say that no1 wants to expend too much energy, but looking at the stages after this theres nothing thats going to put the main GC guys in much difficulty until Sunday up the Ax-3, surely enough time to recover from a pretty big effort.

 

[Cerberus]

Andy has to attack today with or without a summit finish - otherwise he has no chance in the final TT.

There are 2-3 stages besides this one where Andy can take time if he can indeed out climb Contador. This one is probably only the 4th best stage for Schleck, it is in no way critical to take time on this exact stage.

 

[Scirea]

There are 2-3 stages besides this one where Andy can take time if he can indeed out climb Contador. This one is probably only the 4th best stage for Schleck, it is in no way critical to take time on this exact stage.

But today he can attack and rest for a couple of days. In the Pyrenees he can't attack in all 3 stages.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Yes, I think that this will be a stage of two finishing times.
3 big climbs early, BMC on the front, then the flat of the valley before the Madeleine, plus 30kms of downhill flat?

Breakaway heaven. Polka dot and stage win day.
GC day? Only for those who go out on the Madeleine 4kms+ from the top.

How do you make an attack stick on a 6% climb? It's Morzine Avoriaz times 2.
It's about those who go out the back, not of the front.

Bring back the Giro.

 

[Cerberus]

But today he can attack and rest for a couple of days. In the Pyrenees he can't attack in all 3 stages.

True, but there is 20 k of descent and 10 k of flat after the top, I just don't think a solo attack is viable. If he can get 2-3 or others with him, preferably someone like Sanchez who's good on descents but probably not a GC threat and can keep up with them on the descent that's fine, but if he does get 2-3 people with him it might include Contador and Evans and in that case there's not much point I would say.

 

[Lanark]

Yes, I think that this will be a stage of two finishing times.
3 big climbs early, BMC on the front, then the flat of the valley before the Madeleine, plus 30kms of downhill flat?

Breakaway heaven. Polka dot and stage win day.
GC day? Only for those who go out on the Madeleine 4kms+ from the top.

How do you make an attack stick on a 6% climb? It's Morzine Avoriaz times 2.
It's about those who go out the back, not of the front.

Bring back the Giro.

Don't let the average gradient fool you. The Madeleine is a very tough, steep climb. After about 10k there's a small descent, which makes the average gradient drop, but the last 10 or so kilometers are constantly between 8 and 10%.

 

[Mellow Velo]

They are off. First man to attack? Sylvain Chavanel!

I fear for the sprinter's today. If the race hasn't settled by the Colombiere, they could struggle to make the cut.

 

[Scirea]

Lol, Hushovd is going for intermediate sprints again.