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TDF Stage 9 - Tuesday, July 13 2010, Morzine-Avoriaz - Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne, 204 k

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I think the winner will come from an early escape group because BMC won't be strong enough to bring them back and I don't really know which team could keep the pace high as the col de la madeleine is too far away from the finish to gain any huge advantages. Possibly Astana will keep the pace high to avoid attacks, but they will have no interest in bringing them back because Contador is not going to win this stage anyway. Especially if it rains.

I go for Sandy Casar tomorrow.
 
Barrus said:
I'm going for Sammy Sanchez to do the same as Nibali did in the giro. It would really be nice to see Sammy win a stage in this tour and he is looking really good. The only problem is that he is too close in the GC.

If not Sammy, I still think a Spanish rider will win this one, perhaps LL Sanchez

well i see two contrasting scenarios: In one, the race is hardened by the GC guys only after allowing a break enough time to have a chance to make it. Then, the teams protecting the GC riders do a war of hard climbing on the Madeleine only. The type of hard work that leaves one or two contenders hurting and loosing big time which leaves them out of the way for the Pyrenees showdown.
In the second scenario I see the race as a GC battle early on the stage with the racing meant to hurt everybody for the future but doesn't create gaps between the contenders . A group of less than 10 arrives at the Madeleine together and with not time to gain at the finish, they dispute a sprint for the stage among the big names. a guy like Sanchez taking it this time.
 
Jul 1, 2009
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I will never quite understand why they don't end the stage on top of the Madelaine, and just drop the last 30 km.

But anyways, maybe Vino tries something crazy tomorrow?
 
Nov 17, 2009
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theyoungest said:
No, uncategorized climbs aren't categorized because they're too easy. The Madeleine (and the Tourmalet and Mont Ventoux etc.) is hors catégorie, which means "beyond categorization", i.e. the toughest climbs.

While true... many sites with profiles have that translated as "uncategorized" or "no category"... like for example... this website we're posting on.

gr214548_600.jpg
 
mikkemus23 said:
I will never quite understand why they don't end the stage on top of the Madelaine, and just drop the last 30 km.
The organizers say the following on their website:
After the first rest day, which the riders will have to get out of their system, this is the main Alpine stage, with the Col de la Colombière pass via Le Reposoir, the Col des Aravis pass, Les Saisies and the Col de la Madeleine pass. If Contador has lost five minutes on the cobbles, it is not unimaginable that he will be clawing them back a little every day on this sort of terrain. However, there is no summit finish, because there would have been too many on this Tour. We preferred to diversify the route more to avoid riders waiting for the summit finishes to open up the gaps. The favourites might not want to attack to avoid finding themselves alone on the flat, which means a big battle is an unlikely scenario. That said, those who are not good downhill riders could lose Le Tour in the finish to this stage.
I don't get it. They don't like it when the favourites wait for the summit finish to attack, so they decided to do away with the attacking opportunities altogether? They even predict themselves that they're isn't going to be a battle to speak of.
 
A

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First post....and I'll put my neck on the block and tip the winner for tomorrows stage.

Nicolas Vogondy. Pretty sure he's lined himself up for this stage and Bbox will have a rider in the breakaway.

Looking forward to the final climb. I'd have put a bundle of dough on Nibali to win the stage if he was competing. Maybe a similar stage in the Vuelta that suits?
 
mikkemus23 said:
I will never quite understand why they don't end the stage on top of the Madelaine, and just drop the last 30 km.
Follow the money.

You have to end the stage in a city to get money from the city. Who will pay the Tour organizers to end the stage at the top of Madelaine?

Any explanations for route choices are mostly rationalizations for the real reasons: money.
 
Apr 21, 2009
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No way dude

Sergey® said:
First post....and I'll put my neck on the block and tip the winner for tomorrows stage.

Nicolas Vogondy. Pretty sure he's lined himself up for this stage and Bbox will have a rider in the breakaway.

Looking forward to the final climb. I'd have put a bundle of dough on Nibali to win the stage if he was competing. Maybe a similar stage in the Vuelta that suits?

Peter Sagan all the way!! He would crush Nibali.

If they both were racing the Tour, that is.:D
 
Ninety5rpm said:
Follow the money.

You have to end the stage in a city to get money from the city. Who will pay the Tour organizers to end the stage at the top of Madelaine?

Any explanations for route choices are mostly rationalizations for the real reasons: money.

Surely they'd get enough from the towns hosting all the ****ty flat stages?
 
Mar 13, 2009
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Depending on how things go, Schleck could be in white, polka dots and yellow at the end of the day.

That would actually be pretty bad for Saxo though, so I hope Evans stays in yellow and a breakaway goes through or one of the "outsiders" (Kreuziger, Basso, Wiggins, ...) puts in a surprise move to win a stage, gain some time.
 
Jul 12, 2010
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I think the organisers are right to add decents to the end of some mountain stages. Sorts the men from the boys. The extra 10KM is the bit that i think is complete crap.
 
Barrus said:
I'm going for Sammy Sanchez to do the same as Nibali did in the giro. It would really be nice to see Sammy win a stage in this tour and he is looking really good. The only problem is that he is too close in the GC.

If not Sammy, I still think a Spanish rider will win this one, perhaps LL Sanchez

well i see two contrasting scenarios: In one, the race is hardened by the GC guys only after allowing a break enough time to have a chance to make it. Then, the teams protecting the GC riders do a war of hard climbing on the Madeleine only. The type of hard work that leaves one or two contenders hurting and loosing big time which leaves them out of the way for the Pyrenees showdown.
In the second scenario I see the race as a GC battle early on the stage with the racing meant to hurt everybody for the future but doesn't create gaps between the contenders . A group of less than 10 arrives at the Madeleine together and with not time to gain at the finish, they dispute a sprint for the stage among the big names. a guy like Sanchez taking it this time.
 
Jul 14, 2009
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With the news that Christophe Moreau is retiring, and that he wants a stage win , I say Moreau wins from a break. The pace will be high on the climb in the GC group, but no so high that they catch the break; especially once they go over the top. Also, I'm pretty sure Moreau is a good descender. Also maybe Gerdemann in a break.
 
May 29, 2010
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If this was a M.T.F Rob Gesink would have a great chance.However the descent at the end could prove troublesome for both him and his more illustrious team mate!May be Kreuziger's day.
 
luckyboy said:
Surely they'd get enough from the towns hosting all the ****ty flat stages?
Yes, but not getting X euros from any town for a mountain top finish is X euros they won't get, period. Whereas if they drop 20km into a town after the climb, they can pick up those X euros there.

If X is how much they normally get for a stage finish or start in a city, then they collect 22 * 2 * X (assume 21 stages plus a prologue), or 44 * X, for having a city start and end for each stage. If X is 10,000 (I have no idea), then they get 44 * 10,000 = 440,000.

If they end a stage without a sponsoring city, then they collect only 44 * X - (n * X), where n is the number of mountain top finishes. Say they have three mountain top finishes, that's 440,000 - 30,000 = 410,000.

Would you rather have 410,000 or 440,000?

And that's assuming every start/finish city sponsor pays the same amount. It might very well be that the finishing city on a big mountain stage has to pay more, perhaps much more. After all, they are likely to get more publicity, and are more likely to be a tourist destination and thus more likely to value publicity more.
 
Question. If the contenders go over the summit of la Madeleine as a group of 10 or so, is it possible that poorer descenders like Schleck and Basso lose contact with the group on the descent, and lose time on the stage?