I have very strong feeling Carapaz will ride Giro. And I also believe Bernal will be in Vuelta, depending of course on the outcome of the Tour.
Yes, I'm thinking if all Carapaz does in the Tour is take some pulls ahead of Bernal on some climbs, he could be in shape to go to the Giro and contend. Not much to lose, because at worst he can ride for Thomas, assuming the latter is in better form. And i wouldn't be surprised to see Bernal in the Vuelta. If he doesn't win the Tour, or even podium, he will want to win something.