Teams & Riders Team Visma - Lease a Bike

[Rackham]

No, it did not.

Just because Kuss was the one who ended up gaining time early and Roglic was held back in an effort to gain this time back, it doesn't mean the next time the roles wouldn't be reversed and that Roglic couldn't be the one who ends up gaining time and Vingegaard is held back, for example.

If we assume that statistically Roglic has a bigger chance to be weaker than Vingegaard than stronger than him, he could have a better chance winning the TdF the Kuss way than changing teams and going against Vingegaard and Kuss and whoever else they throw into the mix in a straight fight. Even more so if you include the factor that Jumbo's ways of getting performance out of riders seem to be the best in the peloton at the moment and Roglic switching teams may end up hurting is performance a bit. If you make these assumptions, Zeeman's comment makes perfect sense.

If Roglič is ahead of Vingegaard in GC at the TdF, his esteemed Danish teammate will attack him again, again & again until he's ahead.

I don't imagine for one minute Rog would benefit from the "he's a loyal teammate so I'll gift him the win" sentiment which Kuss benefitted from in the Vuelta. It'll be a deathmatch.

 

[buddy buddy buddy]

why think that? it would mean working with Pogacar/in Pogacar's interests

 

[theyoungest]

Everyone has their opinion re a potential Roglič transfer. If he stays, I trust he has good reasons to do so. But one argument I've seen repeated is the one Zeeman uses here, i.e. it's "easier" to beat Vingegaard & Kuss if he's their teammate.

In reality the Vuelta showed the complete opposite to be true. Being on the same team as those riders skewered his chances. He couldn't attack, he had to endure their attacks & the team actively imposed orders to force him into 3rd.

Could the scenario be different in the Tour? Maybe, maybe not. That's the sort of question I assume Rog is asking himself right now (& the team, whether he believes their answers or not).

If there isn't any opposition, of course it's a disadvantage for the three individually strongest riders in the race if they're all on the same team. It was just as bad for Vingegaard as it was for Roglic. Do people now think that Vingegaard should leave? No, strangely enough they don't.

I think it's La La Land if you expect this to happen in the Tour where Pogacar is at the start. There for a guy like Roglic, who I think most people would rate not quite at Pogi and Vingegaard level, it's probably better to be on the team with one of them, so that at least one of them won't chase him.

 

[CyclistAbi]

If Rogla stays at JV or moves to another team. In both cases it's rather clear that he will need to beat JV. To win the Tour.

 

[Carols]

If there isn't any opposition, of course it's a disadvantage for the three individually strongest riders in the race if they're all on the same team. It was just as bad for Vingegaard as it was for Roglic. Do people now think that Vingegaard should leave? No, strangely enough they don't.

I think it's La La Land if you expect this to happen in the Tour where Pogacar is at the start. There for a guy like Roglic, who I think most people would rate not quite at Pogi and Vingegaard level, it's probably better to be on the team with one of them, so that at least one of them won't chase him.

Why would Joans leave, he's the favored son?

 

[theyoungest]

Why would Joans leave, he's the favored son?

Not the favored son, just the better rider of the two. Jumbo aren't stupid, if they believe they have a bigger chance of winning the Tour with Roglic than with Vingegaard they send Roglic. I don't know why Roglic fans think it's purely because of some personal preference among Jumbo management or whatever.

 

[Rackham]

Not the favored son, just the better rider of the two. Jumbo aren't stupid, if they believe they have a bigger chance of winning the Tour with Roglic than with Vingegaard they send Roglic. I don't know why Roglic fans think it's purely because of some personal preference among Jumbo management or whatever.

Because the level is much, much closer than some imagine. There's a top 3 GT riders in the world. Rog is one of them.

He's far too close in terms of level to the other two to be simply discarded as superfluous. If I were Jumbo I would do everything to take Roglič as co-leader (or leader B, with respect to Vinge for his accomplishments) to the TdF next year. Forget WvA's personal ambitions as well, i.e. make it all about Vinge & Rog.

Based on Rog's form on his best days (Monte Lussari, Angliru), he could arguably take the fight to at least Pog in the TdF. And I think he knows this as well.

Hence why he's still interested in the Tour. If he was washed, the decision would be much, much more straight-forward i.e. stay at Jumbo to clean up some races for the sake of statistics padding or sign a big contract elsewhere for the money. Here the decision is about how best to approach the TdF next year because he can still realistically fight for yellow.

That's how I see it anyway.

 

[kn0s]

Because the level is much, much closer than some imagine. There's a top 3 GT riders in the world. Rog is one of them.

He's far too close in terms of level to the other two to be simply discarded as superfluous. If I were Jumbo I would do everything to take Roglič as co-leader (or leader B, with respect to Vinge for his accomplishments) to the TdF next year. Forget WvA's personal ambitions as well, i.e. make it all about Vinge & Rog.

Based on Rog's form on his best days (Monte Lussari, Angliru), he could arguably take the fight to at least Pog in the TdF. And I think he knows this as well.

Hence why he's still interested in the Tour. If he was washed, the decision would be much, much more straight-forward i.e. stay at Jumbo to clean up some races for the sake of statistics padding or sign a big contract elsewhere for the money. Here the decision is about how best to approach the TdF next year because he can still realistically fight for yellow.

That's how I see it anyway.

I agree with most of this. But Jumbo doesn't have to guess as much as we do. They know what they are capable of. It's easier to make a choice when your data and performance coaches tell you what's up. I think the riders pretty much know also, internally anyway.

 

[saunaking]

Because the level is much, much closer than some imagine. There's a top 3 GT riders in the world. Rog is one of them.

He's far too close in terms of level to the other two to be simply discarded as superfluous. If I were Jumbo I would do everything to take Roglič as co-leader (or leader B, with respect to Vinge for his accomplishments) to the TdF next year. Forget WvA's personal ambitions as well, i.e. make it all about Vinge & Rog.

Based on Rog's form on his best days (Monte Lussari, Angliru), he could arguably take the fight to at least Pog in the TdF. And I think he knows this as well.

Hence why he's still interested in the Tour. If he was washed, the decision would be much, much more straight-forward i.e. stay at Jumbo to clean up some races for the sake of statistics padding or sign a big contract elsewhere for the money. Here the decision is about how best to approach the TdF next year because he can still realistically fight for yellow.

That's how I see it anyway.

Rog is like 7 years older than Jonas. They are planning for more than just today

 

[theyoungest]

Because the level is much, much closer than some imagine. There's a top 3 GT riders in the world. Rog is one of them.

He's far too close in terms of level to the other two to be simply discarded as superfluous. If I were Jumbo I would do everything to take Roglič as co-leader (or leader B, with respect to Vinge for his accomplishments) to the TdF next year. Forget WvA's personal ambitions as well, i.e. make it all about Vinge & Rog.

Based on Rog's form on his best days (Monte Lussari, Angliru), he could arguably take the fight to at least Pog in the TdF. And I think he knows this as well.

Hence why he's still interested in the Tour. If he was washed, the decision would be much, much more straight-forward i.e. stay at Jumbo to clean up some races for the sake of statistics padding or sign a big contract elsewhere for the money. Here the decision is about how best to approach the TdF next year because he can still realistically fight for yellow.

That's how I see it anyway.

It's all a bit of guesswork, of course, and hope springs eternal. It could be that Roglic is close to Pogacar as a GT rider, and he probably is if Pogi continues to have bad days like he's had in the past two Tours. But the level Vingo and Pogi showed on their best days in the Tour, I'm sorry, but Roglic has never been close to that. I don't think anybody has.

 

[Rackham]

It's all a bit of guesswork, of course, and hope springs eternal. It could be that Roglic is close to Pogacar as a GT rider, and he probably is if Pogi continues to have bad days like he's had in the past two Tours. But the level Vingo and Pogi showed on their best days in the Tour, I'm sorry, but Roglic has never been close to that. I don't think anybody has.

Something else to speculate about is the actual 2024 TdF route. I just glanced at the thread here & some early rumors point towards an ITT heavy Tour with some softer gradient mountain stages (hinting towards favoring a certain Belgian rider...). This should also be a factor in decisions as well.

Honestly anything with more time trialling should be good for Roglič as well. He might not be the world's best at an ITT but he can certainly hold his own on all terrains (& to be fair I think he is one of the absolute best in a hilly or mountain ITT).

 

[Red Rick]

Something else to speculate about is the actual 2024 TdF route. I just glanced at the thread here & some early rumors point towards an ITT heavy Tour with some softer gradient mountain stages (hinting towards favoring a certain Belgian rider...). This should also be a factor in decisions as well.

Honestly anything with more time trialling should be good for Roglič as well. He might not be the world's best at an ITT but he can certainly hold his own on all terrains (& to be fair I think he is one of the absolute best in a hilly or mountain ITT).

Softer route is great for Rog cause it means the chance of a tactical win by team dynamics, which is his best shot, is greater.

 

[CyclistAbi]

On softer route Roglič would have issues, due to the team pushing Jonas ahead early on the climbs and then Roglič not being able to drop the rest for a long time into the climb. Better for climbs to be harder. That is for Rogla being able to bridge more easily and not to bring other riders with him. If it will be ITT heavy. Then hopefully not just flat terrain. For Rogla to shine.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I wonder how bigger the clinic would blow up if next year Vinge kicks the crap out of Pog, who kicks the crap out of Roglic, Evenepoel, and everyone else again.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@SHAD0W93

If not next year then surely the year after ... As the story goes.

 

[Rackham]

I wonder how bigger the clinic would blow up if next year Vinge kicks the crap out of Pog, who kicks the crap out of Roglic, Evenepoel, and everyone else again.

Nah. I'll simply go & start spamming Prudhomme & co to make a TdF route with nothing but flat stages, middle mountains & lots of flat ITT's.

That'll teach those watts monsters a lesson. It's called the Tour de France, i.e. I don't see what the Alps & Pyrenees have got to do with anything. I mean let's face facts, most French people don't even live in the mountains!

On softer route Roglič would have issues, due to the team pushing Jonas ahead early on the climbs and then Roglič not being able to drop the rest for a long time into the climb. Better for climbs to be harder. That is for Rogla being able to bridge more easily and not to bring other riders with him. If it will be ITT heavy. Then hopefully not just flat terrain. For Rogla to shine.

I agree with Red Rick tbh.

I mean anything to upset the apple cart is welcome, i.e. no matter their reasons, if the route planners offer something different & force Vingegaard & Pog to adopt a different battle plan, it could also inadvertently suit Rog as well.

If Jumbo go into the race with total certainty with regards to the plan to follow with Vingegaard (which they would do on a similar route as 2021, 22 & 23), then that wouldn't help Rog either. Besides, I think Evenepoel could prove to be Rog's best ally next summer as long as he remains in the game for as long possible.

He's an extra variable for Jumbo to deal with.

 

[CyclistAbi]

On soft route Rogla will lose internal battle with Jonas. Team will set up Jonas early on the climbs and that is that. Rogla can then sit back with Kuss, Kuss not giving him his bike if a mechanical would get involved. So Rogla needs harder route to beat both (Jonas and Pogi, potentially Remco) and JV. Hopefully the organiser to prepare a route suitable for all four. Look at where eagles nest.

Tough terrain.

 

[Rackham]

On soft route Rogla will lose internal battle with Jonas. Team will set up Jonas early on the climbs and that is that. Rogla can then sit back with Kuss, Kuss not giving him his bike if a mechanical would get involved. So Rogla needs harder route to beat both (Jonas and Pogi, potentially Remco) and JV. Hopefully the organiser to prepare a route suitable for all four. Look at where eagles nest.

Tough terrain.

I think the theory is for Rog to jump on Pog or Evenepoel's wheel when they follow Vingegaard, a bit like Pog following Vinge on the Tourmalet in the TdF (before countering him on Cauterets). The 'hope' is that Vingegaard doesn't just ride off alone (like on Bejes). The more riders in the mix there are, the better it will be for Rog.

The problem in the Vuelta was that there was only Vingegaard & Kuss as opponents. So there was literally no fight.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Nah. I'll simply go & start spamming Prudhomme & co to make a TdF route with nothing but flat stages, middle mountains & lots of flat ITT's.

That'll teach those watts monsters a lesson. It's called the Tour de France, i.e. I don't see what the Alps & Pyrenees have got to do with anything. I mean let's face facts, most French people don't even live in the mountains!



I agree with Red Rick tbh.

I mean anything to upset the apple cart is welcome, i.e. no matter their reasons, if the route planners offer something different & force Vingegaard & Pog to adopt a different battle plan, it could also inadvertently suit Rog as well.

If Jumbo go into the race with total certainty with regards to the plan to follow with Vingegaard (which they would do on a similar route as 2021, 22 & 23), then that wouldn't help Rog either. Besides, I think Evenepoel could prove to be Rog's best ally next summer as long as he remains in the game for as long possible.

He's an extra variable for Jumbo to deal with.

We’d be in for a WVA vs MVDP show the whole race which could get spicy.

On soft route Rogla will lose internal battle with Jonas. Team will set up Jonas early on the climbs and that is that. Rogla can then sit back with Kuss, Kuss not giving him his bike if a mechanical would get involved. So Rogla needs harder route to beat both (Jonas and Pogi, potentially Remco) and JV. Hopefully the organiser to prepare a route suitable for all four. Look at where eagles nest.

Tough terrain.

You would have a point if Jumbo didn’t race to make the race easy when Roglic is the leader while they race it hard and full gas when it’s Vinge.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Nah. Rogla must demand his own team support. Relying on some other wheel. That implies that other wheel is already in trouble, otherwise Jonas wouldn't be able to go. So in such case Rogla must then drop that other wheel to even be allowed to bridge to Jonas. On soft terrain i don't see that happening.

 

[CyclistAbi]

You would have a point if Jumbo didn’t race to make the race easy when Roglic is the leader while they race it hard and full gas when it’s Vinge.

It's never easy.

 

[SHAD0W93]

It's never easy.

Nothing is easy in a GT but they visibly ride easier in the past when Roglic was the sole leader compared to when it’s Vinge.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Nothing is easy in a GT but they visibly ride easier in the past when Roglic was the sole leader compared to when it’s Vinge.

It's just the impression. In both cases it was on the limit.

 

[SHAD0W93]

It's just the impression. In both cases it was on the limit.

I guess everyone is just better then Vinge has faced at the Tour then considering the groups are bigger when Jumbo is pacing for Roglic till the final climb.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@SHAD0W93

It's the Tour. You always give it your all. Regardless if in last couple of hundred meters or if it's stretched a bit. Some winning styles involve more seconds and some winning styles are OK with a second or two of an advantage. In my opinion it's the Rogličes style that drains you a bit more. If you finish behind and you still aim for the overall. As with Jonas or Pogi or Remco style you tend to soft pedal on the last climb.