Teams & Riders Team Visma - Lease a Bike

[Pozzovivo]

I will not say panic but their initial strategy (winning time in the TT and defend the advantage) went really wrong.
So I don't even think they were trying to win today, they just wanted to put pressure on UAE and didn't want Pogacar to give the jersey away.

But going on these attacks in the start and pacing on the front in the end is much harder on their own riders than it is on UAE's? Trying to keep Pogacar in yellow is really overthinking and overspending on something irrelevant. Whoever is the strongest in the mountains win. All of this is just "shithousery" as the brits call it. If they are truly so smart - they should know better.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I really don't believe in this plan.

I mean it used to work, well at least sometimes, if it doesn't work any more then i don't feel Visma currently has an answer anyway. They will follow this plan through and that is that. As for messing with Pogi, trying to keep him in yellow, that is exactly what they needed to do and ultimately failed to achieve today.

 

[Netserk]

To achieve what? Being disliked?

Extend the breakaway phase, and give the chance for Benoot and Campenaerts to join the break.

 

[Pozzovivo]

I mean it used to work, well at least sometimes,

This is the narrative being sold in 22 and 23, but Vingegaard was just a better climber on HC climbs back then. And they tend to appear in the 2nd and 3rd week. Almost never in the first. Had little to do with "fatigue over three weeks".

 

[Pozzovivo]

Extend the breakaway phase, and give the chance for Benoot and Campenaerts to join the break.

And so that break dies and another one forms. Why is a longer break phase good for Visma and bad for UAE - jumping in those breakaways (visma guys) cost a lot more energy than riding in the bunch (uae guys). This is my point. It achieves nothing.

 

[CyclistAbi]

This is the narrative being sold in 22 and 23, but Vingegaard was just a better climber on HC climbs back then. And they tend to appear in the 2nd and 3rd week. Almost never in the first. Had little to do with "fatigue over three weeks".

It was always about fatigue over the whole three weeks, just like it is this year.

 

[Cycling111]

I mean it used to work, well at least sometimes, if it doesn't work any more then i don't feel Visma currently has an answer anyway. They will follow this plan through and that is that. As for messing with Pogi, trying to keep him in yellow, that is exactly what they needed to do and ultimately failed to achieve today.

It wasn't a common occurrence at all.

In 2022, Pogacar was tricked by Roglic, and a few kilometers ahead, on the Galibier, he was alone against four Vismas.
In 2023, he simply didn't have a good enough preparation.

It's becoming a generalization when Pogacar has been the best rider in long efforts (250km races) and has won four GTs and three other podiums.

He also won the Tour after harder seasons than Vingegaard, which has proven him to be a cyclist with more resilience than him.

 

[CyclistAbi]

In 2022, Pogacar was tricked by Roglic, and a few kilometers ahead, on the Galibier, he was alone against four Vismas.

So fatigued.

In 2023, he simply didn't have a good enough preparation.

Again fatigued.

It's becoming a generalization that Pogacar hasn't been the best rider in long 250km efforts and has won four GTs and three other podiums for five years.

Not relevant in regards to discussion. If Visma wouldn't be participating it would look like Giro 2024. Pogi fresh as a daisy doing whatever he wants, day in day out. Visma is betting on Pogi to fail due to enduring less fatigue than Jonas, just like they have in past couple of editions. What is different this time is it looks like Jonas won't survive it and on top of that it could backfire for Pogi too. As in the end they are grinding him with everything they got, day in day out. Could be they cancel each other out and both Pogi and Jonas fail in the burning flame of desire. We'll see.

 

[Cookster15]

@Pozzovivo

Inflicting fatigue, believing Jonas is the most immune to that, that is their plan A, day in day out. One thing they likely didn't expect is Pogi isn't racing like a jackass any more. There is some small amount of finesse in it now too, regarding riding it conservatively.

I think that's Visma's strategy based upon now obsolete data. Pogacar wasn't cooked after easily winning last year's Tour - he kept winning easily. This year (I think) Pogacar has less racing in his legs (no Giro).

Relying on fatigue over three weeks seems low probability IMO. But Visma don't seem to have any choice.

 

[Red Rick]

Tu ne peux pas sérieux?

Uh Je suis never sérieux omelette du fromage

 

[Red Rick]

I think that's Visma's strategy based upon now obsolete data. Pogacar wasn't cooked after easily winning last year's Tour - he kept winning easily. This year (I think) Pogacar has less racing in his legs (no Giro).

Relying on fatigue over three weeks seems low probability IMO. But Visma don't seem to have any choice.

I agree it's obsolete data. But there's basically nothing else to try on the road anyway.

That's honestly a big shift from the Sky era for me. Back then I was frustrated often because it felt like there were strategies to try and people weren't doing them. Now it just seems like there's nothing to do, so all you can do sometimes is be as petty and annoying as possible, which is why I'm coming up suggesting Carapaz should deliberately get dropped on Sestriere just to make UAE look like idiots.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I think that's Visma's strategy based upon now obsolete data. Pogacar wasn't cooked after easily winning last year's Tour - he kept winning easily. This year (I think) Pogacar has less racing in his legs (no Giro).

Relying on fatigue over three weeks seems low probability IMO. But Visma don't seem to have any choice.

I mean they can't quit now, what else are they going to do. So either they succeed and fatigue Pogi enough, to ultimately fail at some point, or not succeeding in that and Jonas to likely burn out. What is new is they are now even doing "classics" with Jonas. So my prediction is ultimately one of them will fail, due to the fatigue, or both.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I think that's Visma's strategy based upon now obsolete data. Pogacar wasn't cooked after easily winning last year's Tour - he kept winning easily. This year (I think) Pogacar has less racing in his legs (no Giro).

Relying on fatigue over three weeks seems low probability IMO. But Visma don't seem to have any choice.

What else can they do? They need to do something and not just wait for Hautacam. I know the Tour will be over there and I'm not optimistic when I'm talking about Pogacar.
If Visma was confident in Vingegaard, they would not put Yates or any other rider in the break. And putting Yates was an abysmal decision.

 

[theyoungest]

This is the narrative being sold in 22 and 23, but Vingegaard was just a better climber on HC climbs back then. And they tend to appear in the 2nd and 3rd week. Almost never in the first. Had little to do with "fatigue over three weeks".

Sure, that's why Pogacar ditched his trainer. Because it had nothing to do with fatigue and Vingegaard was simply better.

I know that some people like to minimize any plan Jumbo may have had, but it's quite clear what they were doing for two years, and for two years it quite obviously worked. The idea was that the longer the effort, the better it was for Vingegaard and the worse for Pogacar, and Vingegaard recovered better from these efforts. So if you turn every stage into one long slog to the line, at some point fatigue will set in. And it did.

So Pogacar has worked on that and that's what has won him last year's Tour, and will probably will win him this Tour as well. Because without that fatigue element Vingegaard really has no weapons he can beat Pogi with.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@theyoungest

So you start by not agreeing with the fatigue theory and than go on to describe in detail on how it worked and was used as a weapon against Pogi and on how if it won't work this year Vismas arsenal is empty.

Anyway, IMHO Visma couldn't care if they finish second or last, if they can't win. So IMHO they will push it to the limit and lets see on how that goes.

 

[theyoungest]

@theyoungest

So you start by not agreeing with the fatigue theory and than go on to describe in detail on how it worked and was used as a weapon against Pogi and on how if it won't work this year Vismas arsenal is empty.

Anyway, IMHO Visma couldn't care if they finish second or last, if they can't win. So IMHO they will push it to the limit and lets see on how that goes.

Do you understand the concept of sarcasm?

 

[scribers]

I need more salacious content to be outraged by (for nothing)

 

[CyclistAbi]

Do you understand the concept of sarcasm?

You got me there i will give you that.

 

[Pozzovivo]

Anyway, IMHO Visma couldn't care if they finish second or last, if they can't win.

Sure, but this is always true until you realize that 2nd is the best you can get. Then you fight for 2nd. Like last year. I'll "risk it all to win" after the 2nd rest day. And what happened on Isola 2000? Didn't feel so good and raced for 2nd. If he was true to his words he should have attacked on Bonette. It's just words.

 

[hayneplane]

They set a brutal pace in the finish, and then Benoot launched an attack seemingly just to make Vingegaard look over his shoulder and hesitate. I really think the whole thing was about keeping Pogacar in yellow. It might have annoyed him a bit, but these “150 IQ” tactics feel like bush-league gamesmanship.

Other than that, Yates didn’t even want to be in that break (he basically said so in his interview), and there was no real advantage to it. Is this just panic after yesterday’s stage, or something else? What do you all think?

It was bizarre given that there was no attack from Jorgensen or Vingegaard to try and bridge to S Yates. All it has achieved is burning a few matches from Yates ahead of the mountains where they need him to be super strong.

 

[Pozzovivo]

It was bizarre given that there was no attack from Jorgensen or Vingegaard to try and bridge to S Yates. All it has achieved is burning a few matches from Yates ahead of the mountains where they need him to be super strong.

Completely agree.
Rider who used a lot of energy today from Visma-lab: Campi, Benoot, Yates, Wout.
And from UAE: Probably Politt and maybe wellens?

 

[CyclistAbi]

Other than that, Yates didn’t even want to be in that break (he basically said so in his interview), and there was no real advantage to it. Is this just panic after yesterday’s stage, or something else? What do you all think?

Without Yates in the break UAE could have rested and to finish with sprinters.

Sure, but this is always true until you realize that 2nd is the best you can get. Then you fight for 2nd. Like last year. I'll "risk it all to win" after the 2nd rest day. And what happened on Isola 2000? Didn't feel so good and raced for 2nd. If he was true to his words he should have attacked on Bonette. It's just words.

I mean it's different this year. That is they have to burn all the matches and see on where that takes them. So either Pogi will burn out in the process or will Jonas, or both. Leaving something in the tank is IMHO not an option this year. They even started on stage 1, doing classics with Jonas.

 

[Pozzovivo]

Without Yates in the break UAE could have rested and to finish with sprinters.

UAE would have had Politt pace steady egardless of Yates in the break. He is 16 minutes down in GC and 16 minutes down in level on Pog. It really made no difference (only in a slight negative for Visma). This half-arsed fatigue tactics is just not the way to go.

I'm sure they will try everything they can, but once you realize the win is gone you ride for 2nd. Pog did it also 23 when he collapsed. He rode for 2nd when he couldnt win.

 

[CyclistAbi]

UAE would have had Politt pace steady egardless of Yates in the break. He is 16 minutes down in GC and 16 minutes down in level on Pog. It really made no difference (only in a slight negative for Visma). This half-arsed fatigue tactics is just not the way to go.

Finish with the sprinters?

I'm sure they will try everything they can, but once you realize the win is gone you ride for 2nd. Pog did it also 23 when he collapsed. He rode for 2nd when he couldnt win.

IMHO this year this is too rationale approach to take. I mean if Jonas again forced to race for second, then it's over anyway. And by the time Pogi or Jonas or both realise they might be racing for second, no recovery from that.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

At this point, the only proper post on a thread titled "Team Visma-Lease a Bike" is "LOL"