theyoungest said:
Hold on. You considered Freire, but decided to pick Modolo instead
Alright, after more thought I'll try to defend my choice (which, admittedly, was made in 20 minutes of deliberation on the last day, so this was the logic that swayed my fancy in the last minutes).
- Freire is 36; Modolo 24 (advantage Modolo)
- Freire is inconsistent and has been plagued by sinus troubles; Modolo has shown no chronic issues (advantage Modolo)
- Modolo will be in tons of small Italian races, and it's not inconceivable he could pick up a few 80-point wins here and there for 1 day races, or 20 points for 2.1 stages; Freire will be in top-level races, but is not the fastest rider in them (tie? Maybe advantage Freire)
- Beyond that, Modolo has shown talent over distance for 2 years, and finally learned how to win last year in the second half of the season. He did nothing at San Remo and the Giro last year. This year he'll be the leader at both now that Belletti is gone; Freire has also done nothing last year, but has reached his peak already in his career (tie? maybe advantage Freire)
- Modolo is the logical choice for leadership at the Olympics, which is somewhat a sprinters' course, but with 5 riders Bennati is not even a consideration; Freire is as well, but also has Valverde and Sanchez (tie)
Basically I justified it on the idea that Freire could maybe hope to emulate his 2010 (11-1200 points) at best, but might just fade into retirement, whereas Modolo can't miss matching his last year and has lots of opportunities to improve. More of a safe choice.
When it comes down to it, Freire is maybe my favourite rider of the last 10 years, but I just made the 'safer' choice in my mind. I didn't choose who I would hope for or who I thought would win in a head-to-head race; I chose who I thought would get more CQ points. We shall see.