The 2012 CQ Ranking Manager Game

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bicing

bicing

Nov 23, 2009
649
0
0
TeoSheva said:
your team is poor in neo-pro... most of them can reach 300% of the points of the last year and in some case (like Durbridge), even 500% or more..
Click to expand...

Agreed. Don't know too much about the neopros so couldn't choose them with confidence.

Precentages mean nothing to me- I made predictions for every rider and then assessed their risk (i.e. how much I'd lose if they scored what I thought would be their worst case scenario).

For example, KREUZIGER Roman is 528 points, I predict 1000 and worst case I think he'll score 450 so his risk is -78 points.

Since I did not know much about the neopros, I didn't know how highly to rate their predictions. For the neo's I'd shortlested SELIG, TOSH, HEPBURN and MOSER. My prediction for them was no more then 200-300, which meant a profit of under 150, and I figured I could get that with greater confidence with many other riders like KASH, QUINTANA, VAUGRENARD, PLAZA MOLINA, STETINA...

Also, HKoblet and TSheva: I don't think Maxim Iglinsky will score more than 250 points. EDIT: 200.
 
S

skidmark

Mar 13, 2009
3,848
2,330
16,680
Hugo Koblet said:
You don't think Iglinskiy is a good pick?
Click to expand...

You know, I had Iglinkiy in my lineup for awhile, but I never felt great about it. I realized when I pulled him out of it that it was because he didn't have a bad year last year for any particular reason... and Astana has other leaders they've brought in for similar races. So my conclusion was that he's just not that good. That said, 82 points isn't much to spend.
 
TeoSheva

TeoSheva

Feb 4, 2011
1,888
1
10,485
bicing said:
Agreed. Don't know too much about the neopros so couldn't choose them with confidence.

Precentages mean nothing to me- I made predictions for every rider and then assessed their risk (i.e. how much I'd lose if they scored what I thought would be their worst case scenario).

For example, KREUZIGER Roman is 528 points, I predict 1000 and worst case I think he'll score 450 so his risk is -78 points.

Since I did not know much about the neopros, I didn't know how highly to rate their predictions. For the neo's I'd shortlested SELIG, TOSH, HEPBURN and MOSER. My prediction for them was no more then 200-300, which meant a profit of under 150, and I figured I could get that with greater confidence with many other riders like KASH, QUINTANA, VAUGRENARD, PLAZA MOLINA, STETINA...

Also, HKoblet and TSheva: I don't think Maxim Iglinsky will score more than 250 points. EDIT: 200.
Click to expand...
I like your way to think too... and it can be considered equivalent to the mine... but the last year we had: Matthews, Kittel, Degenkolb... we don't know if a neopro can do bad or well, but we don't know either how much good can they do... instead you know for example that Plaza Molina can't do much better than the past years
 
K

Kvinto

Oct 28, 2010
1,578
0
0
skidmark said:
Has anyone mentioned that Sicard is already paying off points? Whooo!
Click to expand...

yep,
28cfe0a2608499ff5984a938e0d16d64.png
% :D

edit: btw, where can i download the last update in Excel format (i can't find, really...)?
edit 2: i guess, i have already found, so never mind :)
 
just some guy

just some guy

Apr 9, 2011
3,034
2
0
Kvinto said:
yep,
28cfe0a2608499ff5984a938e0d16d64.png
% :D

edit: btw, where can i download the last update in Excel format (i can't find, really...)?
edit 2: i guess, i have already found, so never mind :)
Click to expand...

Still behind Matt it should be pointed out.:D
 
Froome19

Froome19

Dec 30, 2011
3,547
0
0
TeoSheva said:
your team is poor in neo-pro... most of them can reach 300% of the points of the last year and in some case (like Durbridge), even 500% or more..
Click to expand...
Durbiridge's potential to score points is severly limited by olympics especially as he struggled in tdu
just some guy said:
Still behind Matt it should be pointed out.:D
Click to expand...
not for long, tdu was matt's big chance to get points he wont have many more
whilst sicard will have plenty
 
Maaaaaaaarten

Maaaaaaaarten

Oct 23, 2011
3,846
2
0
Finally, looking at those startlists I can see a decent ammount of the guys I picked.

I was getting desprate after 3 guys in the TDU and nobody in Tour de San Luis.
 
just some guy

just some guy

Apr 9, 2011
3,034
2
0
Froome19 said:
not for long, tdu was matt's big chance to get points he wont have many more
whilst sicard will have plenty
Click to expand...

Lloyd will do the business and have some free rain this year

Ps Leif Hoste anyone have any thoughts on his year - could be a good pick for some good spring points
 
Squire

Squire

Dec 28, 2010
4,119
3,078
21,180
I see that Iglinsky is listed as leader for Astana for the Tour de Med. He's also the only climber in the team. Here's hoping he earns back his cost in his first race :)

I do have quite a strong team for that race, actually. Quintana, Gutierrez & Iglinsky.

Only Pozzato in San Luis, and only Bonnafond in Besseges. Not many points waiting for me there...
 
Froome19

Froome19

Dec 30, 2011
3,547
0
0
just some guy said:
Lloyd will do the business and have some free rain this year

Ps Leif Hoste anyone have any thoughts on his year - could be a good pick for some good spring points
Click to expand...
I picked him but only because I think he must have a better year than last year where he was injured throughout and as he will be the team leader. yet don't think he will be able to get to many high placings in classics but enough in maybe races like omloop, gent-wevelgem etc and hopefully a top ten in flanders which will certainly make him a jusifiable decision
 
will10

will10

Dec 27, 2010
6,674
1
0
At Verandas Hoste will get to ride for himself at the big races, and even if he's not good enough to compete there anymore, will get chance to ride all the semi-classics where he's more than capable of picking up some points. If he has recovered fully from his headache issues last year (and it's a big if) then I think he could make a handy profit. The guy's never been a winner but is always there or thereabouts.
 
Eric8-A

Eric8-A

Nov 11, 2010
3,387
1
0
skidmark said:
Has anyone mentioned that Sicard is already paying off points? Whooo!
Click to expand...

He has already passed his 2011 score. Pure profit already.

Same can be said for Rogers.
 
El Pistolero

El Pistolero

Jul 16, 2010
17,455
5
0
will10 said:
At Verandas Hoste will get to ride for himself at the big races, and even if he's not good enough to compete there anymore, will get chance to ride all the semi-classics where he's more than capable of picking up some points. If he has recovered fully from his headache issues last year (and it's a big if) then I think he could make a handy profit. The guy's never been a winner but is always there or thereabouts.
Click to expand...

Those problems are all solved, but he's old and hasn't trained a lot during these problems and obviously didn't race.
 
Timmy-loves-Rabo

Timmy-loves-Rabo

Jun 22, 2009
10,644
2
0
mc_mountain said:
directvelo.com is good for startlist announcements in some of the smaller races, currently has etolie de besseges and tour of med

http://www.directvelo.com/actualite/16855-etoile-de-besseges-les-engages.html

http://www.directvelo.com/actualite/16929-tour-mediterraneen-les-engages.html

I have Poels, Pinot and Quintana in the latter and will be looking for Poels and Pinot to demonstate they're improved from last year's 3rd and 17th
Click to expand...

On poels website it doesn't mention Mediterraneen.

vola ao algarve is however.

http://www.woutpoels.nl/kalender

unsure of the accuracy. He also recently lost his father, not sure how that will affect his early season.
 
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