Well, it's a quiet week for CQ points, so I'm gonna share some musings on some riders in this game that I don't have on my team. The process of picking a CQ team, for me, is all about refinement, going over and over a long list until I either become convinced with a rider and put him on, or become doubtful enough of a rider to take him off the list. Then, when I have about 4-5 spots left, I see who fits them out of the guys I can't decide on. These are some guys I couldn't quite manage to convince myself to put on the team, in order of how expensive they were.
Fernando Gaviria (833 points) - the case for Gaviria is obvious. He's young, he's incredibly fast, and he looks like a generational talent. It's easy to even take his 2016 season, add some points for natural improvement, and play 'what if' on races like San Remo (where he made it to the final and crashed in the finishing strait) and the Worlds (where he made the winning move but then bizarrely broke his collarbone without falling off his bike), to get to a total points score of like 1300-1500. But then factor in that he was focused on the track and Rio, realize he only raced 44 days, and do the math - this kid could get 2000 points. He should be getting that on the regular soon enough anyway.
Even counter-arguments aren't very convincing - there are some other fast guys on QuickStep, for sure, but he won't be expected to contend all the same races as them. Kittel will get the Tour sprints, but most everything else should be Gav's. Boonen will lead the cobbles, but Gav is more likely to lead in races Boonen isn't targeting anyways. QuickStep is the best team at spreading around the results, and they are the best team (at the top level, at least) at knowing what to do with young talent. He's going to have a fine year.
And yet. It's not such a simple equation as 'imagine him riding 80 days and pro-rate his score'. He's riding the Giro and possibly the Tour after - that's 21 or 42 more days right there, and if he did do the Tour, he'd be second fiddle to Kittel for most of 21 race days. And he could win 5 Giro stages maybe at the high end, but if breakaways get away some days, or if he crashes in the first week in a battle for positioning, or if Greipel and Ewan beat him on the flat finishes, he could ride 21 days without as efficient of a return as 2016. And if he takes a step up to bigger races, he might not get the kind of run where he got 417 points in 6 race days from mid-September until Paris-Tours. San Remo is no guarantee either - it ended in a bunch last year, but if a move goes on the Poggio and he's sprinting for 9th, it's not quite the dreamy points that we can fantasy book for 2016 if he hadn't crashed. I still think if he has a 'bad' year he'll crack 1000, there's no way he's a 'bad' pick. But I'm cautious enough of his upside this year that I decided for sure on some other expensive riders first (Nibali, Aru, Kwiat etc) and couldn't find room for him.
Miguel Angel Lopez (763) - I think he's been overlooked in this game a bit. He's a monster talent and Nibali's gone, clearing some space for him to do his thing. Aru will likely be focused on the Giro and Vuelta, Fuglsang is the main Tour guy, which leaves him open to romp in any variety of races. He won 1 out of the 4 WT stage races he was in last year, and his only other points were from Langkawi (which he should have won), San Luis, and winning Milano-Torino at the end of the year. With growing consistency and a more free role, I could see a big improvement. His talent is just too irrepressible. But still, I think with the delayed season start he might be hampered, and might need another year to really blossom.
Rigoberto Uran (687)
Tony Martin (657)
Tejay Van Garderen (574)
All of these guys fall under the conventional "they've been much better before" strategy. The case could be made for any of them - Uran got sick at the Giro last year and has more potential in one-days with a better calendar; Martin is going to be used less as a workhorse than at QuickStep and has a feel for the cobbles this year; Tejay has had two bad years but this was still the guy who looked like he was going to podium the Tour two years ago before getting sick (and the Giro route suits him okay). But... meh. There are more exciting guys this year in the higher price range. Even I, patron saint of picking safe bets, couldn't get excited enough about them. Still, any of these guys could be a boon to the minority of teams that pick them.
Caleb Ewan (552) - well, this one already looks like a bad omission. I know my reasoning for keeping him out: his points were largely off of one big win (that he didn't even win on the road), he seemed to have a hit a wall in terms of who he could beat, with good young sprinters emerging (see: Gaviria) that could beat him straight up... he didn't seem to have much development momentum in terms of stamina. But from his torrid January, that reasoning was proven to be a bit of a fallacy, not seeing the forest for the trees. The counter-narrative, of course, was that he was learning endurance, and a year of things not going easily for a young, prolific sprinter would inevitably lead to a winter of working on adjustments and a hunger to win out of the gate. His results in Australia were about as good as they could have been (save a nationals win), and helped by the surprise increase in points for the TDU. Even without those extra points he looks like a good pick this year - we will see if he can win the big races when everyone's in shape, but my initial ceiling for him (around his 2015 score) looks destined to be wrong.
Edward Theuns (405) - I tried really hard to include him on my team, but couldn't make him fit. I think he has as good an argument of any of my marginal final additions: he scored 1000 points in small races in 2015, had a year of adjustment at Trek, but showed some real promise in the bunch sprints and 1-days, suggesting a tantalizing combo with Stuyven for the future (albeit now with Degenkolb too). His crash out of the Tour ended his season early and although he expressed worries about a full recovery, he looks fine. I'll be rooting for him even if he's not on my team.
Guillaume Martin (227)
David Gaudu (196)
Vincenzo Albanese (159)
Kilian Frankiny (129)
Gregor Muhlberger (125)
Edward Ravasi (114)
Schachmann/Cavagna/Mas/De Plus
All these young guys I considered strongly, but didn't pick for different reasons. Martin I had last year and he was solid; Wanty is a great place for a young climber like him to develop, he started late last year and didn't really peak until July, so with progression and two peaks this year he could be a good pick. Albanese I have talked about; I talked myself out of him last minute and am worried he will do well. The others, I either felt like they wouldn't be good neos because they were too young, buried on a strong team, or in the case of De Plus and Muhlberger, talented 2nd year riders who didn't show enough consistency or high level results to make me think they'd break through this year.
How about you guys? Anyone you're thinking of that you strongly considered but didn't take?
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