The Caleb Ewan vs. Fernando Gaviria Thread

[portugal11]

Ewan can't compete in 100% flat stages against pure sprinters, so he will never be a cavendish, and strangely for a sprinter of his size, he can't climb short climbs very well like matthews, sagan or even degenkolb. It will be a mistery for me in type of stages he could beat the best riders.

 

[42x16ss]

Re:

Ewan can't compete in 100% flat stages against pure sprinters, so he will never be a cavendish, and strangely for a sprinter of his size, he can't climb short climbs very well like matthews, sagan or even degenkolb. It will be a mistery for me in type of stages he could beat the best riders.

Me too...

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

I'm still curious to see if Ewan will be able to develop an engine for high level WT races a bit. As an espoir he was actually very good in hilly races and I've been surprised ever since he turned pro that he seems to have completely lost that talent. But training properly can help to develop the engine needed (cf. Kristoff). I'm not actually saying I expect him to grow in that regard, just saying that I'm not ready to completely give up on him becoming more than a pure sprinter just yet. He did win a 217km WT race last year against Degenkolb, Nizzolo, Kristoff etc. last year; it's not the hardest or most prestigious race and to be honest I didn't watch so I don't know if it was maybe raced really slowly or something, but at least he has the engine to compete against the tough classic guys after a 217km one day race with at least a few easy hills in there. That doesn't say everything, Cav won MSR too, but Ewan is definitely no Guardini and I think he might just have a little room for improvement in this regard. Kristoff is actually one of the most amazing transformations I've witnessed in this sport so he shouldn't be taken as representative of anything, but Kristoff couldn't sprint to save his life if the race was more than 150km when he was 22 and look at him now. It proves that at least for some riders change in this regard is possible.

 

[Netserk]

He may have won it, but he didn't cross the line first. Nacer should have had that win on his palmares.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Bouhanni is another example of a rider who was very poor in difficult terrain at the beginning of his pro carreer, but who has since developed some capabilities for more difficult finishes.

 

[yaco]

Not worried about Ewan's endurance - He's only a third year rider who is handling extra distances OK - He's a funny rider in that he's nearly the worst TTer in the peloton, has struggled with any type of hill ( though showed lots today on Willunga ), but at the same time he's preferred sprint is a slightly uphill sprint - This is where he can compete with the big guns - Would like him to ride a few races on cobbles in 2017 - Apparently riding MSR but probably not as a protected rider.

 

[Jancouver]

Re:

Not worried about Ewan's endurance - He's only a third year rider who is handling extra distances OK - He's a funny rider in that he's nearly the worst TTer in the peloton, has struggled with any type of hill ( though showed lots today on Willunga ), but at the same time he's preferred sprint is a slightly uphill sprint - This is where he can compete with the big guns - Would like him to ride a few races on cobbles in 2017 - Apparently riding MSR but probably not as a protected rider.

Obviously, the only reason he can compete with the big guns on the slight uphill is his Mini-Me size. Thats where the power/weight ratio comes into play.

On flats, he got no chance against the big guys (Kittel etc) as the raw power will overtake his low profile aero style ... just not enough power.

 

[May0maniac]

I think his size could be a bigger problem if things get a bit more messy in a big sprint, a sprinter with such a low weight makes him more likely to hit the deck than a big sprinter who's over 75kg heavy and should be able to absorbe a bit more, if I remember correctly there was a big crash in the 2015 Tour de Pologne when he was the first rider who crashed.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

Not worried about Ewan's endurance - He's only a third year rider who is handling extra distances OK - He's a funny rider in that he's nearly the worst TTer in the peloton, has struggled with any type of hill ( though showed lots today on Willunga ), but at the same time he's preferred sprint is a slightly uphill sprint - This is where he can compete with the big guns - Would like him to ride a few races on cobbles in 2017 - Apparently riding MSR but probably not as a protected rider.

Obviously, the only reason he can compete with the big guns on the slight uphill is his Mini-Me size. Thats where the power/weight ratio comes into play.

On flats, he got no chance against the big guys (Kittel etc) as the raw power will overtake his low profile aero style ... just not enough power.

That's fairly much it - Ewan will improve with another 2 or 3 pre-seasons, which will make him fatigue less, and give him a bit more power - Uphill sprints are his go.

 

[StryderHells]

Re:

Not worried about Ewan's endurance - He's only a third year rider who is handling extra distances OK - He's a funny rider in that he's nearly the worst TTer in the peloton, has struggled with any type of hill ( though showed lots today on Willunga ), but at the same time he's preferred sprint is a slightly uphill sprint - This is where he can compete with the big guns - Would like him to ride a few races on cobbles in 2017 - Apparently riding MSR but probably not as a protected rider.

Why wouldn't he be a protected rider at MSR? Since Matthews has left and Gerrans is close to being done they don't really have anyone else for the race

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

Not worried about Ewan's endurance - He's only a third year rider who is handling extra distances OK - He's a funny rider in that he's nearly the worst TTer in the peloton, has struggled with any type of hill ( though showed lots today on Willunga ), but at the same time he's preferred sprint is a slightly uphill sprint - This is where he can compete with the big guns - Would like him to ride a few races on cobbles in 2017 - Apparently riding MSR but probably not as a protected rider.

Why wouldn't he be a protected rider at MSR? Since Matthews has left and Gerrans is close to being done they don't really have anyone else for the race

I'm pretty sure MSR would be to hard for him.

 

[StryderHells]

Re: Re:

Not worried about Ewan's endurance - He's only a third year rider who is handling extra distances OK - He's a funny rider in that he's nearly the worst TTer in the peloton, has struggled with any type of hill ( though showed lots today on Willunga ), but at the same time he's preferred sprint is a slightly uphill sprint - This is where he can compete with the big guns - Would like him to ride a few races on cobbles in 2017 - Apparently riding MSR but probably not as a protected rider.

Why wouldn't he be a protected rider at MSR? Since Matthews has left and Gerrans is close to being done they don't really have anyone else for the race

I'm pretty sure MSR would be to hard for him.

Oh yeah I totally agree with you, my point was more that if Orica send him to MSR then he should have a protected roll as they don't really have the riders for the race anymore with Matthews gone and Gerrans looking past it, I could see Cort putting in a good ride at MSR. Ewan could be in the finish if it's raced softly but if it's raced hard I don't seeing hm in the finish as I don't think he has the legs for it at this stage of his career.

 

[Jancouver]

Re: Re:

Not worried about Ewan's endurance - He's only a third year rider who is handling extra distances OK - He's a funny rider in that he's nearly the worst TTer in the peloton, has struggled with any type of hill ( though showed lots today on Willunga ), but at the same time he's preferred sprint is a slightly uphill sprint - This is where he can compete with the big guns - Would like him to ride a few races on cobbles in 2017 - Apparently riding MSR but probably not as a protected rider.

Why wouldn't he be a protected rider at MSR? Since Matthews has left and Gerrans is close to being done they don't really have anyone else for the race

I'm pretty sure MSR would be to hard for him.

Oh yeah I totally agree with you, my point was more that if Orica send him to MSR then he should have a protected roll as they don't really have the riders for the race anymore with Matthews gone and Gerrans looking past it, I could see Cort putting in a good ride at MSR. Ewan could be in the finish if it's raced softly but if it's raced hard I don't seeing hm in the finish as I don't think he has the legs for it at this stage of his career.

They already said that he will do MSR. Apparently, he is going "to learn" and the plan is to follow Gerro's wheel, and perhaps to be there as a back up if he can survive 300km.

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

Not worried about Ewan's endurance - He's only a third year rider who is handling extra distances OK - He's a funny rider in that he's nearly the worst TTer in the peloton, has struggled with any type of hill ( though showed lots today on Willunga ), but at the same time he's preferred sprint is a slightly uphill sprint - This is where he can compete with the big guns - Would like him to ride a few races on cobbles in 2017 - Apparently riding MSR but probably not as a protected rider.

Why wouldn't he be a protected rider at MSR? Since Matthews has left and Gerrans is close to being done they don't really have anyone else for the race

I'm pretty sure MSR would be to hard for him.

Oh yeah I totally agree with you, my point was more that if Orica send him to MSR then he should have a protected roll as they don't really have the riders for the race anymore with Matthews gone and Gerrans looking past it, I could see Cort putting in a good ride at MSR. Ewan could be in the finish if it's raced softly but if it's raced hard I don't seeing hm in the finish as I don't think he has the legs for it at this stage of his career.

Only one way to find out for sure. There's always the chance of the race being an outlier like 2009 with a huge bunch sprint. If that's the case Orica would look silly leaving their best bunch sprinter behind.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

Not worried about Ewan's endurance - He's only a third year rider who is handling extra distances OK - He's a funny rider in that he's nearly the worst TTer in the peloton, has struggled with any type of hill ( though showed lots today on Willunga ), but at the same time he's preferred sprint is a slightly uphill sprint - This is where he can compete with the big guns - Would like him to ride a few races on cobbles in 2017 - Apparently riding MSR but probably not as a protected rider.

Why wouldn't he be a protected rider at MSR? Since Matthews has left and Gerrans is close to being done they don't really have anyone else for the race

My understanding is Magnus Cort is the protected rider at this stage - Second protected rider is unknown.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

Not worried about Ewan's endurance - He's only a third year rider who is handling extra distances OK - He's a funny rider in that he's nearly the worst TTer in the peloton, has struggled with any type of hill ( though showed lots today on Willunga ), but at the same time he's preferred sprint is a slightly uphill sprint - This is where he can compete with the big guns - Would like him to ride a few races on cobbles in 2017 - Apparently riding MSR but probably not as a protected rider.

Why wouldn't he be a protected rider at MSR? Since Matthews has left and Gerrans is close to being done they don't really have anyone else for the race

I'm pretty sure MSR would be to hard for him.

Oh yeah I totally agree with you, my point was more that if Orica send him to MSR then he should have a protected roll as they don't really have the riders for the race anymore with Matthews gone and Gerrans looking past it, I could see Cort putting in a good ride at MSR. Ewan could be in the finish if it's raced softly but if it's raced hard I don't seeing hm in the finish as I don't think he has the legs for it at this stage of his career.

Only one way to find out for sure. There's always the chance of the race being an outlier like 2009 with a huge bunch sprint. If that's the case Orica would look silly leaving their best bunch sprinter behind.

I doubt very much Ewan will survive the Poggio - Much rather Ewan learn to ride on cobbles.

 

[Squire]

For a guy of Ewan's build, the Poggio is way more achievable than mastering the cobblestones.

 

[gerundium]

yea don't see the cobblestones working out for a guy his size. I'm of similar build and my experience on the cobbles compared to bigger stockier riders is abysmal.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

For a guy of Ewan's build, the Poggio is way more achievable than mastering the cobblestones.

Definitely. However, he doesn't seem to be able to perform particularly well in races which have a either a very long distance (230km+) or have more than two fairly hard climbs in the stage. He does best in flat races below 220km which have small rise towards the end where his light weight helps him. Milano-Sanremo is not quite that.

 

[Mongolian Torque]

Hmmpf...I wonder if he could at all transform that power into Puerito style power. Use his flyweight status to power climb up punchier hills. Might take a bit of time, but he has a lot of that...

So far he seem to be the class of Tier 2 sprinters. Gave Sagan some bother at TDU.

Agree though that guys like Greipel will eat him for snacks in full on TDF rage sprints.

 

[42x16ss]

Hmmpf...I wonder if he could at all transform that power into Puerito style power. Use his flyweight status to power climb up punchier hills. Might take a bit of time, but he has a lot of that...

So far he seem to be the class of Tier 2 sprinters. Gave Sagan some bother at TDU.

Agree though that guys like Greipel will eat him for snacks in full on TDF rage sprints.

Amstel maybe, but that's about it. If Ewan continues his trajectory I see him as the man to beat on uphill false flat. His ability to position and manoeuvre in a tight sprint will flatter his ability in a pure flat sprint similar to Stuart O'Grady.

 

[portugal11]

This is getting hilarious. Yes he beat sagan in australia and he is already better than sagan at sprints or uphill sprints... HELLO, sagan is far from his top shape meanwhile australian riders are accostumized to be in shape in tour down under!!! Let's see what he will do in milan san remo.

 

[aarononymous]

Hmmpf...I wonder if he could at all transform that power into Puerito style power. Use his flyweight status to power climb up punchier hills. Might take a bit of time, but he has a lot of that...

So far he seem to be the class of Tier 2 sprinters. Gave Sagan some bother at TDU.

Agree though that guys like Greipel will eat him for snacks in full on TDF rage sprints.

Amstel maybe, but that's about it. If Ewan continues his trajectory I see him as the man to beat on uphill false flat. His ability to position and manoeuvre in a tight sprint will flatter his ability in a pure flat sprint similar to Stuart O'Grady.

Gaviria in the hoods owns these types of sprints

 

[Tonton]

I don't know about the Ewan vs. Gaviria stuff...

Both are really good, trying to be great. My bet would be on Gaviria. But Ewan has a nice set of skills, he has upside, so who knows? Nice wins for him. The problem could be that against the best in the big races, he may be better in one area, not as good in another, and in the end there's always (at least) one guy better than him, i.e. Nacer. Having said that, I like him.

 

[The Hegelian]

Re:

I'm still curious to see if Ewan will be able to develop an engine for high level WT races a bit. As an espoir he was actually very good in hilly races and I've been surprised ever since he turned pro that he seems to have completely lost that talent. But training properly can help to develop the engine needed (cf. Kristoff). I'm not actually saying I expect him to grow in that regard, just saying that I'm not ready to completely give up on him becoming more than a pure sprinter just yet. He did win a 217km WT race last year against Degenkolb, Nizzolo, Kristoff etc. last year; it's not the hardest or most prestigious race and to be honest I didn't watch so I don't know if it was maybe raced really slowly or something, but at least he has the engine to compete against the tough classic guys after a 217km one day race with at least a few easy hills in there. That doesn't say everything, Cav won MSR too, but Ewan is definitely no Guardini and I think he might just have a little room for improvement in this regard. Kristoff is actually one of the most amazing transformations I've witnessed in this sport so he shouldn't be taken as representative of anything, but Kristoff couldn't sprint to save his life if the race was more than 150km when he was 22 and look at him now. It proves that at least for some riders change in this regard is possible.

That's a pretty insightful point. Well, it's actually pretty obvious but it amazes me that so many people assume that Ewan's engine at 21 or 22 will remain constant throughout his career. It was good as junior, he's raced well on hilly parcours.....but it obviously takes time to develop that at WT level.

And when it does, he'll be in winning positions in big races for sure. And it's hard to imagine him failing to convert any of those opportunities.

As for Gaviria.....looks great already. I reckon it's a question of how many monuments.