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The Cycling Betting Thread

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F

Ferminal

Jul 3, 2009
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k... didn't see anything in the thread

Gesink @ 9.00 (Sportsbet)
Evans @ 13.00 (Bet365)
Gilbert @ 21.00 (Bet365)

Evans over Scarponi @ 1.76
Gilbert over Ballan @ 2.10
EBH over Velits @ 1.83
Cunego over Basso @ 2.70

All with Bet365.

Cunego hasn't done T-A in recent years, but it is very much suited to him. Back to his winning ways in Sardinia and also strong in Eroica.
 
Squire

Squire

Dec 28, 2010
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Bah. Bad day so far. All three TA bets lost. Didn't expect that.

Put on a few more overall bets for TA, which means I'm counting on these for the next week:
Gasparotto win @ 51
Basso top 3 @ 5
Garzelli over Nocentini @ 1.66
Garzelli over Lövkvist @ 1.714

Luckily, the TTT set Garzelli up nicely to win those h2hs.
 
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federalski

Sep 23, 2010
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Gonna have a little go on Fedrigo tomorrow.
Seems his kind of stage and he has stated he has this race as a target, and he wants to show the younger boys on FDJ how to win.
28/1 is a tad shorter than I'd have liked but I like his chances.

Hoping Monfort can also get in the mix for my overall...
 
F

Ferminal

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Badeend said:
Why is Porte @2.40 against Martin? Col de la Mûre seems to be pretty steep ...
Click to expand...

Not sure... a question of form really. I'm taking that risk though.

Small go on Bennati over Farrar @ 2.40 too.

and Petacchi @ 11

Also put bets on Scarponi, Nibali and Evans (he drifted to 17) to firm up my position in the overall.

So my returns would be:

Gesink win: 2.17x
Evans win: 4.4x
Gilbert win: 5.58x
Nibali win: 1.03x
Scarponi win: 1.44x

Not sure of any precise way to go about it, still learning.

Paris-Nice GC

Porte @ 18
Klöden @ 34
Brajkovic @ 34
Samu @ 34

I think these are great odds for what will effectively be a lottery between all the guys who can TT and climb well enough. The gambling aspect here is form, the odds seem to assume Martin is on top of his game and that a lot of these others are not. Will probably make a more serious bet on LLS, just need to check the odds.
 
Squire

Squire

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Ferminal said:
Paris-Nice GC

Porte @ 18
Klöden @ 34
Brajkovic @ 34
Samu @ 34

I think these are great odds for what will effectively be a lottery between all the guys who can TT and climb well enough. The gambling aspect here is form, the odds seem to assume Martin is on top of his game and that a lot of these others are not. Will probably make a more serious bet on LLS, just need to check the odds.
Click to expand...

Wow, wasn't aware that they had drifted that much. Especially Samu is good. Put small bets on all the @34s. Thanks.
From before the race I have my @7.5 bet on LLS for the overall, which I very much like. Hesjedal over Sagan @ 2.70 is also looking good now. More unsure about my Vino podium, but if he wins the stage today, he could well hang on.
 
Squire

Squire

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Took two more just before today's stages after reading up on some news, so I have:

Hushovd over Boonen @ 1.76
Voeckler over De Gendt @ 2.70
Bennati over Hagen @ 1.80
Haedo over Davis @ 2.20

Boonen riding with a flu, Voeckler said he'll try for the overall, Bennati is in his backyard, Haedo because of two Astana sprinters, one Italian.
 
Squire

Squire

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Squire said:
Hushovd over Boonen @ 1.76
Voeckler over De Gendt @ 2.70
Bennati over Hagen @ 1.80
Haedo over Davis @ 2.20
Click to expand...

Much better day today. 3/4 h2hs, while Klöden, Brajkovic & Samu were in the first group. Thanks for those, Ferminal! :) LLS overall win and Vino podium out the window, but Hesjedal over Sagan is pretty much guaranteed barring crashes, Rolland over Le Mevel also looking good.

Now Klöden, please hang in there! You'll make me a happy and slightly richer man. Unlikely though, but I'll be cheering for him bigtime. One of my favourites.

It's Martin's race to lose now.
 
Squire

Squire

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Paris-Nice stage 6
F.Schleck over C.Sørensen @ 2.80
Van Emden over Bookwalter @ 2
L.Sanchez over Westra @ 1.714
Taaramae over Chavanel @ 2.10
Gerdemann over Chavanel @ 2.65

Tirreno - Adriatico stage 3
Petacchi over Farrar @ 2.55

Feel I found some serious value for today. Chavanel "showing himself on one more stage" would mean not today, and hopefully he will take it easy to be allowed more freedom later.
 
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bohino11

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Like you, I like betting against Chavanel here, Squire. I think I found some value on Paddy Power so went for a double there. Cant do doubles on bet365 as they say the bets are interrelated. I joked with them and said the only way match bets on cyclists be interrelated, when not on same team, is if they crashed into eachother.

Peraud to beat Chavanel @ 1.72
Casar to beat Roche@1.8

Casar did ok in hilly tt in Oman, I know it wasnt tt bikes but has to have some relevance and I think this basically Roches first real outing and he has disappointed in tt's before
 
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Ferminal

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Ferminal said:
Dan Benson tweeted this:

Chavanel has bronchits. Will fight on in Paris-Nice

-------------------------------------

Took Taaramae and Gerdemann over him at 2.35 and 2.40, interesting to see what happens.
Click to expand...

Well didn't that work out well... Also had Porte over Kreuziger @ 1.87 which seems like a total gift in hindsight.

Best day in a while... 3/3 at good odds.
 
Squire

Squire

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Squire said:
Paris-Nice stage 6
F.Schleck over C.Sørensen @ 2.80
Van Emden over Bookwalter @ 2
L.Sanchez over Westra @ 1.714
Taaramae over Chavanel @ 2.10
Gerdemann over Chavanel @ 2.65

Tirreno - Adriatico stage 3
Petacchi over Farrar @ 2.55
Click to expand...

Good day again. Even though only 3/6 went in today, the Gerdemann bet was twice as big as the others, so a good profit.
 
gizzajob

gizzajob

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gizzajob said:
St6 Paris-Nice, hard to see past Martin, so instead will go with some value bets with SportingBet.
Top3 - Porte @ 7
Top3 - Peraud @ 21
Click to expand...

Good day for me also. Tense finish to see if Klodi overtook Porte, and earlier Peraud had given me something to shout for.

I'd also had a treble with PaddyPower on Peraud over Chavanel, Wiggo over Leipheimer and Porte over Rogers.

Unfortunately my overall outside bets on VDB and Kierlovski look to have lost, but I also had a fanboy bet on Wiggins overall each way @34 which might return something.

Today points to a breakaway staying away, possibly with Vino in it (it is is 8th year anniversary of Kivilev's death). I was hoping for better odds than the 9 I can find at Skybet.
(EDIT have gone for Sagan @ 11 with Ladbrokes and Fedrigo @21 with SportingBet)

Otherwise I like these H2Hs at pddypower
Kloden over Martin @2 (Martin will just have to mark Kloden?)
Peraud over Wiggo @ 1.83
LLS over Samu at 2 (Samu seemed to be struggling a little?)
 
gizzajob

gizzajob

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Nic Roche just tweeted:
"Very windy! Expecting rain! 215kil today over a fwe hard hills and mountains!! Difficult day in perspective"

Who goes well in these conditions? (edit: Haussler @17 with William Hill)
 
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bohino11

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Liking Gilbert to beat Visconti and Scarponi to beat Gesink in Tirenno. Scarponi won almost identical stage last yr easy against a lot of todays challengers. Fancy Gilbert to take stage this yr so a match bet with Visconti is great. I decided to mix them with two bets I saw on Paris nice in 2 doubles.

Gilbert to beat Visconti @ 1.5
Taaramae to beat Brajkovic @ 2

Scarponi to beat Gesink @ 1.9
Kloden to beat Martin @ 2

Both on Paddy Power
More confident of the first one as I think Brajkovic will burn himself out for Kloden. I fancy Kloden to beat Martin as Id say Martin will just follow him and be happy to follow him over the line. I dont expect them to be fighting for the top 3 on the stage
 
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