willbick said:
the point is, just saying '6% is an acceptible return on a bet for a 'big stakes pro punter' is meaningless. 6% would be an acceptible return for anyone on an absolute 100% sure thing but the fact is there are no 100% sure things in real life (unless u have some inside info or something). i am not a big stakes gambler but if u gave me 6% that cav would not win the tour de france i would put everything i have on it. the 'acceptibility' of the % return for any gambler, whether big stakes pro or not, should always be based on probability, otherwise they will soon become a very poor pro-gambler!!
Look,i fully understand what you are saying,its based on the probability,yes,this is true but gambling by its very nature is a game of a chance,a risk if you like.
My own view (you probably think the same) is that there is no such thing as a certainty but you would also agree that as a general rule the higher the class of competition you are betting on (in this case the TDF,the pinnacle of the sport) the more stable the results form-wise.Hence why most big stakes punters in horseracing only bet heavy on group 1 and group 2 races where the best horses run and where the form usually holds up the best.Does this mean you won't get a 100-1 shot coming 2nd in the Epsom Derby? No,it happened last year but it won't happen many years.
Now i've been drawn into this Green jersey business (my own fault for posting a general comment amongst a specific discussion on it), i genuinely can't see past Cav/Sagan even if Greipel should be involved and is as big as 16-1 (a price that would appeal to a small stakes punter like myself).Whether there is any value in the Cav/Sagan bet is purely a personal opinion.
You intimated 6% yield is "a mug bet" I am disputing that so what i am saying isn't meaningless.A guy i know told me a couple of years ago he bet huge on the horse Sea the Stars for the Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe at odds of 4-6 in what is a notoriously roughhouse historically unpredictable race,i ridiculed him at the time but he phoned me afterwards to tell me how much he had won and to gloat.Who's the mug,me or him? I have never forgot that occasion.
I am stating the blatantly obvious now but you can narrow down the probability all you want but it is still a gamble every time you hand over the cash.Its not an exact science whether you have the data to support your bet choice or not.