- Mar 10, 2009
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Re: Re:
After my last post I went to the garage and looked at the battery tools I have now. A Milwaukee made dremel tool is 600 grams and could fit in a down tube. certainly not concealable if the BB was removed or the frame was x rayed. The issue here is torque. this tool has little torque. so I looked at a drill. it has a similar motor but the gear reduction gives us the torque we need. that is over a kilo. The associated batteries would give 15 to 20 minutes of power and that could easily be expanded to an hour for about 200 grams per 15 minutes. So I suppose it can be installed inside a bike frame and certainly the battery could be explained by Di2 but how do you hide the noise or motor from an X-ray machine. I think minimum weight might be around a kilo.
During the olympics in Vancouver the local sea plane port had to have security screening including baggage scanners. (industrial X ray machines) they came in a trailer and left after the O Games were over. So portable scanners are available. The port of Vancouver has portable x ray scanners as do many border crossings. The point is this detection technology is also available so while I expect it is not cheap to do it is possible and an entire peloton could have their bikes checked.
If these products actually exist, who is making the money if they are not commercially available? If we ever see these in races I would guess they will be low level and Gran Fondos. With these new rules the risk to the team would be too great for pro riders.
My point is while it may be possible to hide these from sight. concealing them from a mechanic is not possible. Sure you put it in the down tube to hide it from simple look down the seat tube but any mechanical interface would be obvious and nothing could be canceled from an Xray machine.
JohnScienceIsCool said:
After my last post I went to the garage and looked at the battery tools I have now. A Milwaukee made dremel tool is 600 grams and could fit in a down tube. certainly not concealable if the BB was removed or the frame was x rayed. The issue here is torque. this tool has little torque. so I looked at a drill. it has a similar motor but the gear reduction gives us the torque we need. that is over a kilo. The associated batteries would give 15 to 20 minutes of power and that could easily be expanded to an hour for about 200 grams per 15 minutes. So I suppose it can be installed inside a bike frame and certainly the battery could be explained by Di2 but how do you hide the noise or motor from an X-ray machine. I think minimum weight might be around a kilo.
During the olympics in Vancouver the local sea plane port had to have security screening including baggage scanners. (industrial X ray machines) they came in a trailer and left after the O Games were over. So portable scanners are available. The port of Vancouver has portable x ray scanners as do many border crossings. The point is this detection technology is also available so while I expect it is not cheap to do it is possible and an entire peloton could have their bikes checked.
If these products actually exist, who is making the money if they are not commercially available? If we ever see these in races I would guess they will be low level and Gran Fondos. With these new rules the risk to the team would be too great for pro riders.
My point is while it may be possible to hide these from sight. concealing them from a mechanic is not possible. Sure you put it in the down tube to hide it from simple look down the seat tube but any mechanical interface would be obvious and nothing could be canceled from an Xray machine.
Re: Re:
Milwaukee is trying to hit a price point. How much performance will $20k of Ferrari's time plus EPO, HGH, AICAR and cortisone buy you? What kind of motor could that get you? And of course it is detectable. So is EPO. But you have to be looking for it in order to get caught, Like actually looking for it. <Cancellara at Roubaix>
John Swanson
Master50 said:
Milwaukee is trying to hit a price point. How much performance will $20k of Ferrari's time plus EPO, HGH, AICAR and cortisone buy you? What kind of motor could that get you? And of course it is detectable. So is EPO. But you have to be looking for it in order to get caught, Like actually looking for it. <Cancellara at Roubaix>
John Swanson
- Mar 13, 2009
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Re: Re:
you have made a few assumptions here for your conclusion, the risk would be too great.
1. there is a conflation, even a confluence, of team and rider. they have a different motive and different timescale.
2. the team maybe merely the team owner, like Riis, in this hypothetical you posit. Not a wrench/mechanic on 30k euro per annum. A wrench might be willing to look askance, especially if a monument win will see him be beneficiary of the bounty. remember Freddie Viaene and Motoman?
3. the premise that riders in the sport, have a sober risk formula and function. everything we know about the sport, indicates, the culture permeated has no foundation in a layperson risk analysis and risk metrics. Everything is on the up-side, and there are no negative or liability concerns.
4. the assumption that the UCI will want to bust a rider. Or do they merely wish to dissuade the riders from harming the sports image (yeah, what it has left on the positive side of the equation). If they were to find one of the stars on the startline, with a motor, why would a Verbruggen type NOT discourage the commissaires from letting the cat out?
5, Do we know the UCI is testing those potential winners, or just the little boys. Because this has been the model used in dope-testing, give the favourites a wide berth, but test the $hit out of the proletariat. *someone said in this thread it would indeed be helpful to a domestique, but lets be clear and use our brains, you only double down for the win, you dont double down to ride with your nose in the wind or fetch bidons. That is LEvi Leipheimer and bottle the eponymous nickname the NY Velocity guys gave him!
It would be an irony if Vaughters or Riis got the penalty for not doping their riders, but when a rider was found with a motor and they were blamed and the team disbanded. Wont happen, but would be quintessence of irony.
Master50 said:
you have made a few assumptions here for your conclusion, the risk would be too great.
1. there is a conflation, even a confluence, of team and rider. they have a different motive and different timescale.
2. the team maybe merely the team owner, like Riis, in this hypothetical you posit. Not a wrench/mechanic on 30k euro per annum. A wrench might be willing to look askance, especially if a monument win will see him be beneficiary of the bounty. remember Freddie Viaene and Motoman?
3. the premise that riders in the sport, have a sober risk formula and function. everything we know about the sport, indicates, the culture permeated has no foundation in a layperson risk analysis and risk metrics. Everything is on the up-side, and there are no negative or liability concerns.
4. the assumption that the UCI will want to bust a rider. Or do they merely wish to dissuade the riders from harming the sports image (yeah, what it has left on the positive side of the equation). If they were to find one of the stars on the startline, with a motor, why would a Verbruggen type NOT discourage the commissaires from letting the cat out?
5, Do we know the UCI is testing those potential winners, or just the little boys. Because this has been the model used in dope-testing, give the favourites a wide berth, but test the $hit out of the proletariat. *someone said in this thread it would indeed be helpful to a domestique, but lets be clear and use our brains, you only double down for the win, you dont double down to ride with your nose in the wind or fetch bidons. That is LEvi Leipheimer and bottle the eponymous nickname the NY Velocity guys gave him!
It would be an irony if Vaughters or Riis got the penalty for not doping their riders, but when a rider was found with a motor and they were blamed and the team disbanded. Wont happen, but would be quintessence of irony.
- Mar 13, 2009
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Re: Re:
but it wont give you the corporal and psychological pay-off on winning that doping without a motor will offer.
even if you dope like Riis, you still appreciate the physical and psychological highs of winning in your bones and blood.
if you still did that with dope AND a motor, the highs are somewhat mitigated.
ScienceIsCool said:
but it wont give you the corporal and psychological pay-off on winning that doping without a motor will offer.
even if you dope like Riis, you still appreciate the physical and psychological highs of winning in your bones and blood.
if you still did that with dope AND a motor, the highs are somewhat mitigated.
Re: Re:
I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles... Man, what *won't* some of these guys do to be on top?
blackcat said:
I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles... Man, what *won't* some of these guys do to be on top?
- May 27, 2010
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Re: Re:
While I have disagreed with you above on some points, I am aligned with you here.
Lance wouldn't have stopped at anything. He didn't.
I just don't believe it is credible. We need a few more breakthroughs and miracles on the engineering side.
On the other hand, as WIlly Voet suggested, I believe that Virenque would drink his own urine if he thought it would provide an advantage.
Dave.
ScienceIsCool said:
While I have disagreed with you above on some points, I am aligned with you here.
Lance wouldn't have stopped at anything. He didn't.
I just don't believe it is credible. We need a few more breakthroughs and miracles on the engineering side.
On the other hand, as WIlly Voet suggested, I believe that Virenque would drink his own urine if he thought it would provide an advantage.
Dave.
Re: Re:
i'm just singling out this point, because it's worth repeating.
The UCI have amply shown they don't want to catch motor cheats (and understandably so).
Not using x-ray technology, giving advance notice to riders/teams, checking Ryder's bike 4 days after the event, etc. Therefore, the whole issue of (in)visibility of these motors becomes a bit of a mute point.
great coupla posts, again.ScienceIsCool said:
i'm just singling out this point, because it's worth repeating.
The UCI have amply shown they don't want to catch motor cheats (and understandably so).
Not using x-ray technology, giving advance notice to riders/teams, checking Ryder's bike 4 days after the event, etc. Therefore, the whole issue of (in)visibility of these motors becomes a bit of a mute point.
- Mar 13, 2009
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moot point, yes.
but what i find curious, is where the peloton would decide to set the boundaries. what rules for the insider, can become official rules.
doping with androgens is allowed, doping with motors, not allowed.
this raises another of the paradoxes from zeno:
when Motoman makes his delivery of Edgar, to a USPS bus, is this androgen doping, or is this motor doping? riddle me that batman.
but what i find curious, is where the peloton would decide to set the boundaries. what rules for the insider, can become official rules.
doping with androgens is allowed, doping with motors, not allowed.
this raises another of the paradoxes from zeno:
when Motoman makes his delivery of Edgar, to a USPS bus, is this androgen doping, or is this motor doping? riddle me that batman.
Re:
again, see Cancellara. Has the peloton tried to oust him or get to the bottom of those accusastions?
No thet haven't, even though the accusations/rumors were pretty serious.
See also Ryder, who was immediately backed by his mate A. Rasmussen.
I don't see the peloton setting any boundaries.blackcat said:
again, see Cancellara. Has the peloton tried to oust him or get to the bottom of those accusastions?
No thet haven't, even though the accusations/rumors were pretty serious.
See also Ryder, who was immediately backed by his mate A. Rasmussen.
Re:
As soon as some bigshot get's away with it, everybody wants in on the action. It is only when someone from a lesser team tries something new that it is frowned upon. It is not so much unwritten rules that guides the peloton as it is pettiness.blackcat said:
- Nov 7, 2009
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- Mar 13, 2009
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Re: Re:
if cancellara has not pulled it out again when he has it in his arsenal there are a few options:
i) does not have it in his arsenal
ii) UCI gave him a ring, and said this was NOT butter on head
iii) UCI said MAtti Breschel would inform on him and supergrass on states witness if he pulled that $hit again
iv) Spartacus put it back in his sheath
sniper said:
if cancellara has not pulled it out again when he has it in his arsenal there are a few options:
i) does not have it in his arsenal
ii) UCI gave him a ring, and said this was NOT butter on head
iii) UCI said MAtti Breschel would inform on him and supergrass on states witness if he pulled that $hit again
iv) Spartacus put it back in his sheath
Cookster15
Moderator
- May 14, 2011
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Re: Re:
How depressing. Scrutineering the bikes of every race and stage winner, race leader and the next two or three place getters would be very easy. All bikes should be handed over at the finish line for scrutnineering by an independent mechanic. If a bike is changed mid race those bikes should be checked too. Its done in F1 and F1 cars are way way more complex than bikes!
But why are X-Ray machines needed? Officials would only need to disassemble the bottom brackets and inside the seat posts to check for inserted motors. Why waste money with X-Ray machines?
Motorised bikes does seem like a very easy thing to stop if there is the will. But alas there seems a lack of will on the part of the UCI which is quite damning not just on motorised bikes but for doping generally. Stopping motorised bikes should be way easier than stopping human doping - if there is the will.
sniper said:
How depressing. Scrutineering the bikes of every race and stage winner, race leader and the next two or three place getters would be very easy. All bikes should be handed over at the finish line for scrutnineering by an independent mechanic. If a bike is changed mid race those bikes should be checked too. Its done in F1 and F1 cars are way way more complex than bikes!
But why are X-Ray machines needed? Officials would only need to disassemble the bottom brackets and inside the seat posts to check for inserted motors. Why waste money with X-Ray machines?
Motorised bikes does seem like a very easy thing to stop if there is the will. But alas there seems a lack of will on the part of the UCI which is quite damning not just on motorised bikes but for doping generally. Stopping motorised bikes should be way easier than stopping human doping - if there is the will.
- Sep 29, 2012
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Re: Re:
Probably because officials do not have the tools or skills to do so. So they employ a mechanic to do it? By the time you transport him feed him and house him, you probably have the same cost of an xray machine. But the xray machine works instantly.
Did you think through what you are suggesting?
Cookster15 said:
Probably because officials do not have the tools or skills to do so. So they employ a mechanic to do it? By the time you transport him feed him and house him, you probably have the same cost of an xray machine. But the xray machine works instantly.
Did you think through what you are suggesting?
Cookster15
Moderator
- May 14, 2011
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Re: Re:
Yes, in the early 80's my BMX bike got checked for nothing. No they didn't pull apart my bottom bracket but then BMX was an amateur sport for kids - we are talking professional sport so the cost And I assume X-Ray machines are very expensive no? I think this problem is being made more complex to solve than it really is. Which is why I responded to the "if they really want to" comment.
Dear Wiggo said:
Yes, in the early 80's my BMX bike got checked for nothing. No they didn't pull apart my bottom bracket but then BMX was an amateur sport for kids - we are talking professional sport so the cost And I assume X-Ray machines are very expensive no? I think this problem is being made more complex to solve than it really is. Which is why I responded to the "if they really want to" comment.
Cookster 15 etal,
You make some very good points. I think the UCI is very concerned that motorised doping is feasible and may be going on. The last thing they need after the damage Uniballer did to the sport is the public finding out about motorised doping. I think most fans "know" that biological doping is still going on, but is mostly under the radar and unless one is as arrogant as Valverde is kept on the downlow. If a motorised bike was discovered in the peloton I think that it would absolutely crater the sport. Goodbye sponsorships and TV contracts because the public isn't going to watch such a sham of a sport.
I do think it is possible that a team could find enough engineering support to pull it off but the logistics might be problematic. As you and others have said by telegraphing that it would be unacceptable and making some token, easily avoidable efforts to detect it I think there is an unwritten notice being given to the peloton and teams that this would destroy the sport.
You make some very good points. I think the UCI is very concerned that motorised doping is feasible and may be going on. The last thing they need after the damage Uniballer did to the sport is the public finding out about motorised doping. I think most fans "know" that biological doping is still going on, but is mostly under the radar and unless one is as arrogant as Valverde is kept on the downlow. If a motorised bike was discovered in the peloton I think that it would absolutely crater the sport. Goodbye sponsorships and TV contracts because the public isn't going to watch such a sham of a sport.
I do think it is possible that a team could find enough engineering support to pull it off but the logistics might be problematic. As you and others have said by telegraphing that it would be unacceptable and making some token, easily avoidable efforts to detect it I think there is an unwritten notice being given to the peloton and teams that this would destroy the sport.
- Aug 10, 2010
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Re: motorbikes!
While doping CAN be a team project, introducing a motorbike into the peloton MUST be a team project. Unless caught red-handed in a Festina situation, dopers can almost always be disavowed by the team. A motorbike cannot be disavowed by a team.
There is no way a motorbike could get past an unknowing mechanic. The weight difference would easily give the motorbike away to an experienced mechanic intimately familiar with the heft of his team's machines. If a motorbike is discovered, the team mechanic's career in cycling will likely be over. A mechanic would not likely deceive the rest of the team in order to field a motorbike. If another mechanic notices the bike, boom...his job is gone. If a teammate notices the bike, his job is gone....
Which means the DS absolutely needs to be in on the secret. The DS must know about the scheme because (a) the mechanic is motivated to tell him; (b) he's a dirt stupid DS if he can't figure it out; and (c) the logistics behind motorbike hiding, deployment, removal, and re-hiding demand his participation.
The DS who fields a motorbike is gone from the sport. Which current DS would make such a ridiculous gamble? With doping, the DS can blame the rogue rider, but with a motorbike all the evidence will point right back at him.
arthurvandelay said:
While doping CAN be a team project, introducing a motorbike into the peloton MUST be a team project. Unless caught red-handed in a Festina situation, dopers can almost always be disavowed by the team. A motorbike cannot be disavowed by a team.
There is no way a motorbike could get past an unknowing mechanic. The weight difference would easily give the motorbike away to an experienced mechanic intimately familiar with the heft of his team's machines. If a motorbike is discovered, the team mechanic's career in cycling will likely be over. A mechanic would not likely deceive the rest of the team in order to field a motorbike. If another mechanic notices the bike, boom...his job is gone. If a teammate notices the bike, his job is gone....
Which means the DS absolutely needs to be in on the secret. The DS must know about the scheme because (a) the mechanic is motivated to tell him; (b) he's a dirt stupid DS if he can't figure it out; and (c) the logistics behind motorbike hiding, deployment, removal, and re-hiding demand his participation.
The DS who fields a motorbike is gone from the sport. Which current DS would make such a ridiculous gamble? With doping, the DS can blame the rogue rider, but with a motorbike all the evidence will point right back at him.
Re: motorbikes!
i don't know where to start really.
and then from those speculative assumptions, you draw quite firm conclusions ("MUST", "absolutely", etc.), but still without making explicit whether or not you think motorization is happening.
you sound like you're saying (correct me if wrong) that it is technologically possible, but still impossible because of some vague ethical boundaries viz. because people would not dare...
has the prospect of being banned from the sport ever kept any rider from doping, or any DS from tolerating doping?
Cycling (whether being a rider or a mechanic or a DS) is a very simple, straightforward business plan:
figuring out how to get an edge on your competitors. Many of these guys have already cheated one way or another, and are aware that if they don't cheat, they'll get cheated. And one can easily think of scenarios where the motorized bike is not a team-wide thing (see blackcat's post), or where the DS may suspect something but doesn't act, etc.
More to the point: I think you've got your risk-reward scheme fully wrong here. The rewards are huge, as you'll agree. The risks of exposure, as argued in several posts above, seem rather tiny.
you're making a whole series of unnecessary assumptions here.MarkvW said:
i don't know where to start really.
and then from those speculative assumptions, you draw quite firm conclusions ("MUST", "absolutely", etc.), but still without making explicit whether or not you think motorization is happening.
you sound like you're saying (correct me if wrong) that it is technologically possible, but still impossible because of some vague ethical boundaries viz. because people would not dare...
has the prospect of being banned from the sport ever kept any rider from doping, or any DS from tolerating doping?
Cycling (whether being a rider or a mechanic or a DS) is a very simple, straightforward business plan:
figuring out how to get an edge on your competitors. Many of these guys have already cheated one way or another, and are aware that if they don't cheat, they'll get cheated. And one can easily think of scenarios where the motorized bike is not a team-wide thing (see blackcat's post), or where the DS may suspect something but doesn't act, etc.
More to the point: I think you've got your risk-reward scheme fully wrong here. The rewards are huge, as you'll agree. The risks of exposure, as argued in several posts above, seem rather tiny.
- Sep 29, 2012
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Beyond being banned. Ferrari was concerned he may have caused Armstrong's cancer yeah? There's a lot more to doping than getting caught - hypothyroid, etc can be debilitating and long-term curses of those straying into pharmacological assistance.
Doesn't stop them though, right?
A motor by comparison is physiologically risk-free right?
Doesn't stop them though, right?
A motor by comparison is physiologically risk-free right?
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