- May 12, 2011
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thehog said:Jeroen Swart said:thehog said:Jeroen Swart said:thehog said:Good updates, thanks JS.
The 2007 data was always a problem for me and many others here, those faxes looked awfully dubious but you may have seen the data in raw format.
Sticking to the test data at hand was the better shot, it's reliable and collected under the same conditions. Not sure what conclusions that will be drawn but we can wait and see.
The 'He just lost fat, the engine was always there' statement is now etched in stone, is that something still stand by? Or do you have differing opinions on the reasoning behind the rise of Froome?
I haven't seen the raw data from 2007. However, we have been in contact with the scientists and they are highly respected. I therefore don't have any reason to doubt it's integrity.
Regarding the quote: Please remember that that piece was written for a lay publication which is meant to entertain. It is not a scientific manuscript. So you have to take that comment in it's context. To be honest I can't recall my exact words but I'm sure Richard wouldn't have misquoted me. Richard Moore interviewed me at the end of the day and it covered a lot of points over an interview which lasted a half hour or thereabouts. So it wasn't a one liner.
But to address that point specifically: The 2007 data show that he DID have a very big engine (on par with his current one) and he WAS fat (16.9% BF is absurdly high for someone aiming to perform at that level). So losing that fat and some lean muscle mass as well (otherwise it doesn't equate) would have been a significant factor in his performance improvement. There are probably a multitude of other factors and sometimes these may not even be possible to identify objectively. However, you can't dismiss that an 8kg weight loss for the same power isn't a massive or even overriding factor in his performance improvement. It would have have significant effects on his TT performances as well, not just his climbing.
Thanks JS. I have no doubt those from Lausanne are highly respected, however sans the raw data or something more than the fax (the two versions) we saw its hard to legitimise the data contained within. It was a long time ago, memories become sketchy so it’s hard to believe that data could be used for anything other than water cooler chat. The BMI value is worrying which leads to all sorts of questions. I would agree that the fat per 2007 value is 'absurdly high', Froome from photographs at the time doesn’t look to be carrying that type of weight, although visual guesstimates on fat % is not reliable but he certainly doesn't look like anything in the 17% range.
I agree on your quote that there was an entertainment factor to the testing and so there should be, this shouldn’t be all serious and about publishing in scientific journals then none of this data would get into the mainstream market for greater understanding. I don’t think Moore did your work justice though, I sensed that he was looking for the “missing link” in the Froome story and when Michelle came along with the “missing fax” all the dots joined together, it was a little too Nicolas Sparks-esque for my liking.
I don’t disagree with the principles with weight loss and improved performance, in this case the 8kg weight wasn’t lost between August and September 2011 but it was gradual through Barloworld, then to early Sky days and then “transformation”. That doesn’t correlate at all in the immense improvement and gains made in that short period in 2011.
Thanks again and look forward to the final report.
Yes. I agree. There are some pictures where he looks lean. There are others from then and even from his time at Sky where he looks positively chubby. It may be that his weight fluctuated dramatically. I can't say for sure. Dramatic weight fluctuations will also adversely affect performance.
As to the other factors and the time frame: I can't give any insight. Bilharzia, tactics, weight loss, self belief. There are lots of possibilities. None of which are easy to prove or disprove. The same applies for performance enhancing substances.
Hopefully methods to detect prohibited substances will improve significantly. I readily admit that it is not easy to catch the cheats. Storing samples as they are doing now will add a lot of value. Albeit that we will have to wait a good while to confirm the results; or in your case, the suspicions.
Lets wait and see.
I sense the 2007 data didn’t stand up to the robustness of a peer-reviewed journal hence wasn’t included or that it couldn’t be verified/qualified as valid. Whilst those in Lausanne might have good reputations it appears even they weren’t willing to release that data; all of which gives rise that the 2007 outputs are best kept on the scratchy looking fax presented to Moore (by the subjects spouse no less).
I appreciate that you’ve been up front with respect to that data but if I cast my mind back to the time of the testing, the 2007 was the key aspect that linked in the 2015 data and showed that Froome always had this “big engine” – all we are left with now is a set of 2015 data of which has been fairly much verified by his extraordinary race performance and nothing else.
In terms of doping; I think what we have seen recently with UKAD, WADA, IAAF along with the lack of transparency from the UCI on doping suspensions and moto-fraud to know that testing etc. is woefully out of step with current doping technology & application thereof. We are no further on than 1998 to that respect.
No. I must give them credit in that they were actually keen to share the 2007 data and to publish it with us.
We made a decision to not publish it based on the already lengthy manuscript, the fact that we didn't collect the data ourselves and therefore couldn't attest to the robustness of the methods and QC's and that differing methodologies and equipment would have confounded direct comparisons (as per the criticisms of the Coyle paper). So it was our decision and not theirs.
As per your second point. There is very good evidence that the biological passport has dramatically curtailed doping. However, there is still "wiggling room". But instead of capping it at a HCT of 50, it is now a much tighter control. In addition, there is always a risk for athletes that dope that they will get caught. They now take a risk no matter what they use. However, the risk reward ratio still needs to be increased otherwise some will still take the risk as they consider it acceptable. The 4 year penalty is a step in the right direction but I think lifetime bans for EPO, anabolics and similar for a first offence would be a good starting point.