The Grand 2022 Wollongong UCI Road World Championships Thread, September 18th-25th

[Red Rick]

It still nearly won him Milano - Sanremo this year.

I must have completely missed the part where he was close to winning. But I guess that race does speak for his reduced sprint.

For me most favorites will wait for the final hill, and Evenepoel is probably the only real exception, but I don't think he can just attack and solo 3 laps here. Big question for me is what other teams will do to neutralize Evenepoel.

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

Final verdict having an indication of the actual course.

Damn. I got him at 20/1 and then after Cosnefroy was announced Laporte’s odds drifted with some bookmakers. Skybet still has him at 20.
Still got to do my Remco bet.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Final verdict having an indication of the actual course.

Laporte has a 100% record of DNFing in the World championships, not a single finish in 3 attempts.

But given what Jumbo are doing this year...

 

[movingtarget]

Tomorrow
Showers
15°C-19

Wollongong for Saturday. Partly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming S/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the evening.
Chance of Rain : 80%
Amount of Rain : 1-5 mm

 

[Bolder]

Honestly the u23 category is in such a weird place right now. Riders break through so much younger, and 3 of the last 4 TdF winner have been younger than 23. I also think even for u23, 170km is a meme distance.

At this point I wonder what u23 provide that .2 and continental races don't give?

I think maybe it should both move to u21 and exclude WT riders.

I like the idea of excluding WT riders from U23 races and WCs.

I'd still keep a relatively broad age category up to age 23, though. I think it's nice to have an age cohort racing against each other in avenir. baby giro, P-R etc.

Even now, you have plenty of good riders emerging on the WT scene after age 23, even if every superstar has been identified by age 13...

(and maybe ditch the white jersey in GTs in favor of "debutants" or something. If a 2x TdF winner is eligible for the white jersey, we have a problem...)

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I don't understand the rules. If Evenepoel wanted, would he have been allowed to start in the U23 race?

yes

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Honestly the u23 category is in such a weird place right now. Riders break through so much younger, and 3 of the last 4 TdF winner have been younger than 23. I also think even for u23, 170km is a meme distance.

At this point I wonder what u23 provide that .2 and continental races don't give?

I think maybe it should both move to u21 and exclude WT riders.

I like the idea of excluding WT riders from U23 races and WCs.

I'd still keep a relatively broad age category up to age 23, though. I think it's nice to have an age cohort racing against each other in avenir. baby giro, P-R etc.

Even now, you have plenty of good riders emerging on the WT scene after age 23, even if every superstar has been identified by age 13...

(and maybe ditch the white jersey in GTs in favor of "debutants" or something. If a 2x TdF winner is eligible for the white jersey, we have a problem...)

It should not exclude WT riders, but it should be U21. Here's why:

https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threa...eptember-18th-25th.38230/page-37#post-2766292

 

[Ricco']

I like the idea of excluding WT riders from U23 races and WCs.

I'd still keep a relatively broad age category up to age 23, though. I think it's nice to have an age cohort racing against each other in avenir. baby giro, P-R etc.

Even now, you have plenty of good riders emerging on the WT scene after age 23, even if every superstar has been identified by age 13...

(and maybe ditch the white jersey in GTs in favor of "debutants" or something. If a 2x TdF winner is eligible for the white jersey, we have a problem...)

Debutants could still fit 30 year-olds who are doing their first GT.

I don't have a problem with U26 remaining as the bracket for the white jersey. Sure we have a lots of overall contenders under that age now, but let's wait to see if it's just a generational change or a trend that remains.

And if we change the white jersey rules to U23 instead of U26 where would that lead us? In this year's Tour, for example, Quinn Simmons would be the winner and sole contender for the jersey (as no other U23 rider finished the race), finishing in 66th. We could change the U24 or U25, but I think that would be random changes.

And then again, sticking to U26, this year's top-5 of the white jersey was comprised of the 2nd, 16th, 19th, 20th and 27th overall.
This year's Giro white jersey top-5 was comprised of the 10th, 12th, 16th, 18th and 24th of the overall (with 3 of them being last year U26, and of course Almeida having the withdraw with covid).
The Vuelta was the exception with a big number of young prospects finishing in the top-10. But was that a one-off event due to a lower quality GC field and the first GC test of a new supertalented generation or is it gonna be the trend?

 

[DNP-Old]

I just read an interview with Lotte Kopecky, and she stated that if she were to get dropped by the other contenders she's going to ride for Julie De Wilde to become U23 champion. What a freaking mess, lol.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I'm fairly sure on hilly races the mens elite races tend to be more selective and get smaller groups or solo winners on some parcourses that had simpler reduced bunch sprints for the age restrjcted categories.

Counterpoint: Bergen 2017, probably the most comparable WC of the past 10 years. Harrogate 2019 and Richmond 2015 also weren't more selective for the pros, and Leuven 2021 had a harder route for the pros even corrected for distance.

 

[search]

I don't understand the rules. If Evenepoel wanted, would he have been allowed to start in the U23 race?

yes

no, not anymore. Once you did the Elite worlds once, you can't race in U23 anymore

edit: as lined out in the UCI rules here:

"9.2.013 Under 23 riders who have participated in the Men Elite individual road race at a previous World Championships may not ride the individual road race for Under 23 riders."

 

[Berniece]

I just read an interview with Lotte Kopecky, and she stated that if she were to get dropped by the other contenders she's going to ride for Julie De Wilde to become U23 champion. What a freaking mess, lol.

Apparently next year the U23 woman get their own race.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I must have completely missed the part where he was close to winning. But I guess that race does speak for his reduced sprint.

For me most favorites will wait for the final hill, and Evenepoel is probably the only real exception, but I don't think he can just attack and solo 3 laps here. Big question for me is what other teams will do to neutralize Evenepoel.

After watching the U23 and juniors, i think this suits Evenepoel very much to go solo. It kind of reminds me of the final in Poland where he also won solo. Lots of up and down, rolling terrain, twisting and turning, no real long climbs but demanding nevertheless. I think an attack in the third lap from the finish at the end of the climb makes sense, or unless the group is still too big, then in the penultimate lap.

 

[DNP-Old]

Apparently next year the U23 woman get their own race.

I know that, but still. Imagine you're Guazzini, riding the race of your life, on the verge of winning the gold medal, but don't because Annemiek van Vleuten or Ellen van Dijk had a flat ten minutes ago and decided to help out Shirin van Anrooij who you had just dropped.

 

[Berniece]

I know that, but still. Imagine you're Guazzini, riding the race of your life, on the verge of winning the gold medal, but don't because Annemiek van Vleuten or Ellen van Dijk had a flat ten minutes ago and decided to help out Shirin van Anrooij who you had just dropped.

I completely agree, it's ridiculous.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I know that, but still. Imagine you're Guazzini, riding the race of your life, on the verge of winning the gold medal, but don't because Annemiek van Vleuten or Ellen van Dijk had a flat ten minutes ago and decided to help out Shirin van Anrooij who you had just dropped.

I think they should experiment with women and men U23 riding at the same time!

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

Laporte has a 100% record of DNFing in the World championships, not a single finish in 3 attempts.

But given what Jumbo are doing this year...

I kind of bet on him for the lolz in case he pipped your mate Van Aert to the line. But would that even be allowed by Jumbo?

 

[Nick2413]

Men’s RR odds shifted a bit after these U23 and Junior races. Pogacar had been favorite, now it’s Van Aert.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

no, not anymore. Once you did the Elite worlds once, you can't race in U23 anymore

edit: as lined out in the UCI rules here:

"9.2.013 Under 23 riders who have participated in the Men Elite individual road race at a previous World Championships may not ride the individual road race for Under 23 riders."

lol... but riding elite TT and U23 RR is no problem.

 

[Lequack]

Van Aert, Evenepoel present united front ahead of World Championship redo
'It's like when you marry in a church and you have to say yes', says Van Aert of Belgian co-leadership in elite men's road race in Wollongong

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/van-aert-evenepoel-present-united-front-ahead-of-world-championship-redo/

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

Men’s RR odds shifted a bit after these U23 and Junior races. Pogacar had been favorite, now it’s Van Aert.

It's changing a lot. MvdP was favourite a few days ago and Pog is still fave with some sites but yeah most have WvA. I think it's just a reflection of where the money is going and people seem to be heavy on Van Aert.
I've done a "request a bet" for him to finish second.
Remco is drifting and hopefully that'll continue. I've some LBL/Vuelta cash to spend!

 

[kingjr]

Van Mechelen sprints like a mini-Greipel lol

 

[postmanhat]

The Women’s Junior race will be short, only 67.4 km’s and 4 laps of the Mount Pleasant circuit, which I feel should have one more of these circuits.

A paltry 67K for the women's junior race tomorrow. Zoe Backstedt won in Leuven last year on a course that was 10K longer, but had 250m less elevation. I don't know how either of these factors might affect tomorrow's result due to knowing pretty much nothing about WJ racing. But if someone was able to gap her on the last climb, there would only be a few K for her to, inevitably, gain back time.

Watched her ITT yesterday on replay, and it was astonishing how much quicker she was just visually, regardless of the timing info. The commentators noted that she was 17 seconds faster than any of the elite riders to the first checkpoint, though of course, they had an extra 20K to ride and had a headwind? Also apparently, the first person to hold four rainbow jerseys simultaneously (Road, ITT, Madison, Cyclo-cross).

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

After watching the U23 and juniors, i think this suits Evenepoel very much to go solo. It kind of reminds me of the final in Poland where he also won solo. Lots of up and down, rolling terrain, twisting and turning, no real long climbs but demanding nevertheless. I think an attack in the third lap from the finish at the end of the climb makes sense, or unless the group is still too big, then in the penultimate lap.

I think the course suits Evenepoel quite well. The problem is lack of another reptitive climb. However given how many passes there will be and the length it's going to be ridden at a fast pace.

The weather as always will play a role.

I think Remco needs to go from 30km+ out to win.

 

[Volderke]

Men’s RR odds shifted a bit after these U23 and Junior races. Pogacar had been favorite, now it’s Van Aert.

After watching the U23, I would say it's more of a Pogacar / Alaphilippe (in shape that is) parcours, than a WvA / Matthews parcours.
Weather, tactics and Evenepoel will be decisive factors with MvdP as a joker.