Teams & Riders The Jonas Vingegaard is like Chris Harper, but with a lot more power thread

[Samu Cuenca]

Bookies have Vingegaard as clear favorite which makes sense. I am now wondering how Vingo will carry the pressure of being favorite? Didn't he struggle with the fame after winning last year?

It seemed like he struggled with the fame and attention after the 2021 Tour, but since then he seems to have found ways to cope with it. And nothing will probably ever beat the experience of starting a Tour on home soil.

 

[Boehmand]

Is he? Pog has beaten Vingegaard 5 times to Vinge’s 3. One of which Pog wasn’t riding hard because he had almost a 6 min lead.

I've said it before, I'll say it again:

Vingegaard has 3 areas, where he has an edge on Pogacar:

1. Restitution (Last 10 days of a GT)
2. Competing in thin air (1800+ meters)
3. Extreme heat

If 0 of those factors are present, Pogacar is the better rider.
If 1 of those factors is present, they are even.
If 2 or more of those factors are present, Vingegaard beats Pogacar.

 

[Elos Anjos]

I've said it before, I'll say it again:

Vingegaard has 3 areas, where he has an edge on Pogacar:

1. Restitution (Last 10 days of a GT)
2. Competing in thin air (1800+ meters)
3. Extreme heat

If 0 of those factors are present, Pogacar is the better rider.
If 1 of those factors is present, they are even.
If 2 or more of those factors are present, Vingegaard beats Pogacar.

Good points. Althought too much objective to my taste.

I would add fortitude as a virtue for dealing with pressure and high expectations as another area where Pogacar excels and Vingo is perhaps learning to deal with.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I agree there isn't much between the two in TT's. But I really disagree with your argument. The whole "Vingegaard only beat Pogacar because Pogacar didn't even try" narrative was somewhat believable in 2021, even though most of us just accepted it way too easily back then too. But with our knowledge from 2022 when Vingegaard beat Pogacar outright over 3 weeks, why are we still supposed to think Vingegaard wasn't stronger in 2021 already.

Why should I still think Pogacar just let Vingegaard go on the Ventoux because he knew he could catch him on the descent? Why should I still think Pogacar could have dropped everyone in the Pyrenees and just didn't because he knew he would win the sprint? And why should I believe Pogacar only lost time in the TT because he had way more time in hand anyway? Whether you like it or not, over the 2nd and 3rd week of the 2021 Tour Vingegaard gained time on Pogacar and if people still don't think that painted a representative picture of their level, they are mostly fooling themselves.

Because we’re talking about the TTs, not the mountains or the Tour overall and Pog was clearly taking it easy at times with this also being said in the stage thread at the time. Just like Vinge could have put more time into Pog last year until he almost crashed than sat up.


Just like last year while I think Vinge was in a lot better shape compared to 2021, Pog shot himself in the foot with constant attacking against two equally strong riders on the stage while attacking a lot in the stages before, team falling apart, and the Covid rumors. I think @Boehmand assessment is spot on of what Vinge is better in.

 

[Red Rick]

I agree there isn't much between the two in TT's. But I really disagree with your argument. The whole "Vingegaard only beat Pogacar because Pogacar didn't even try" narrative was somewhat believable in 2021, even though most of us just accepted it way too easily back then too. But with our knowledge from 2022 when Vingegaard beat Pogacar outright over 3 weeks, why are we still supposed to think Vingegaard wasn't stronger in 2021 already.

Why should I still think Pogacar just let Vingegaard go on the Ventoux because he knew he could catch him on the descent? Why should I still think Pogacar could have dropped everyone in the Pyrenees and just didn't because he knew he would win the sprint? And why should I believe Pogacar only lost time in the TT because he had way more time in hand anyway? Whether you like it or not, over the 2nd and 3rd week of the 2021 Tour Vingegaard gained time on Pogacar and if people still don't think that painted a representative picture of their level, they are mostly fooling themselves.

I mean Pog was slightly better in the Pyrenees, but not by a whole lot. Likewise, I think the idea that Pogacar didn't try to win the final ITT was kinda hilarious, cause he's simply not one to take it easy.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I mean Pog was slightly better in the Pyrenees, but not by a whole lot. Likewise, I think the idea that Pogacar didn't try to win the final ITT was kinda hilarious, cause he's simply not one to take it easy.

His performance in that ITT didn't match the expectations nor what he he did on the first ITT. He (most likely) couldn't have won it, but losing 25 seconds to Vingegaard didn't seem like he's actual level either.

 

[Andy schleck]

I mean Pog was slightly better in the Pyrenees, but not by a whole lot. Likewise, I think the idea that Pogacar didn't try to win the final ITT was kinda hilarious, cause he's simply not one to take it easy.

Even in the first TT of the tour 2021, he just lost 27 seconds to pogacar, and it wasn't the same Vingegaard of last year or this year.

 

[Red Rick]

Even in the first TT of the tour 2021, he just lost 27 seconds to pogacar, and it wasn't the same Vingegaard of last year or this year.

TTs do have fluctuations do to gear a bit.

But the Tour ITT this year should be pretty slow so I don't think it should be such a big deal.

 

[Cookster15]

I've said it before, I'll say it again:

Vingegaard has 3 areas, where he has an edge on Pogacar:

1. Restitution (Last 10 days of a GT)
2. Competing in thin air (1800+ meters)
3. Extreme heat

If 0 of those factors are present, Pogacar is the better rider.
If 1 of those factors is present, they are even.
If 2 or more of those factors are present, Vingegaard beats Pogacar.

I tend to agree. But I also say all three are possible to circumvent. On #2, what do we make of this?

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I think ability to cope at altitude is mostly determined by genetics? Or can you influence this somewhat by adaptation? I hope his training on Pico Veleta means he believes he can overcome any vulnerability at over 1800metres.

 

[Gigs_98]

Because we’re talking about the TTs, not the mountains or the Tour overall and Pog was clearly taking it easy at times with this also being said in the stage thread at the time. Just like Vinge could have put more time into Pog last year until he almost crashed than sat up.


Just like last year while I think Vinge was in a lot better shape compared to 2021, Pog shot himself in the foot with constant attacking against two equally strong riders on the stage while attacking a lot in the stages before, team falling apart, and the Covid rumors. I think @Boehmand assessment is spot on of what Vinge is better in.

People wrote that in the stage thread at the time because we couldn't yet comprehend there was already a new gc rider of Pogacar's calibre. Looking back I don't think there is anything particularly unusual about that result.

 

[Nick2413]

I've said it before, I'll say it again:

Vingegaard has 3 areas, where he has an edge on Pogacar:

1. Restitution (Last 10 days of a GT)
2. Competing in thin air (1800+ meters)
3. Extreme heat

If 0 of those factors are present, Pogacar is the better rider.
If 1 of those factors is present, they are even.
If 2 or more of those factors are present, Vingegaard beats Pogacar.

I agree somewhat but to play devil’s advocate..

2) Is thin air the weakness, or long climbs? The 2 usually coincide, I agree thin air is a weakness but probably both.

3) Do we know extreme heat is a weakness, or just happens to be present at the Tour so any weak day will usually coincide with heat, and we also have the bias of knowing he’s strong in cold weather? The only times he’s really lost time have been long higher altitude stages where temps should’ve on average been lower than lower altitude stages. Too lazy to check but I bet he’s won plenty at 30-35C, and was also good in Vuelta and a very hot Olympics.

 

[pelotonIQ]

There is no way Vingegaard wins without double leader tactics together with Roglic. He is worse at TTing and sprinting for bonus seconds.

Pogacar has a better team around him this year and if UAE doesnt have bad luck with covid like last year I see no realistic way for Vingegaard to win.

 

[Boehmand]

I agree somewhat but to play devil’s advocate..

2) Is thin air the weakness, or long climbs? The 2 usually coincide, I agree thin air is a weakness but probably both.

3) Do we know extreme heat is a weakness, or just happens to be present at the Tour so any weak day will usually coincide with heat, and we also have the bias of knowing he’s strong in cold weather? The only times he’s really lost time have been long higher altitude stages where temps should’ve on average been lower than lower altitude stages. Too lazy to check but I bet he’s won plenty at 30-35C, and was also good in Vuelta and a very hot Olympics.

2) According to an interview with someone from Jumbo a while back, Vingegaard tested to have the highest oxygen uptake at high altitude they have ever seen, and they specifically mentioned it as an advantage against Pogacar.

3) Your points are valid, so I'll that add Pogacar has a tendency to complain a lot about extreme heat, while Vingegaard always says he's unbothered by the same conditions... that being said, the point about extreme heat, is definitely the one of the three I am least certain about.

 

[Boehmand]

There is no way Vingegaard wins without double leader tactics together with Roglic. He is worse at TTing and sprinting for bonus seconds.

Pogacar has a better team around him this year and if UAE doesnt have bad luck with covid like last year I see no realistic way for Vingegaard to win.

"No way" is a bit much, there are many way to skin a cat.

He's not worse at TT-ing in week 3, although the ITT being right after a rest day, can throw a spanner in the works, as many riders perform differently the first day after a rest day.

Yes UAE has a better team this year, but it's not like it outranks Jumbo, I view them as pretty even.

People tend to forget, that Vingegaard also planted Pogacar on Hautacam, 4 stages after Roglic had left the race.

 

[topcat]

I would say Vingo is a slight favourite over Pog for the tour. But there’s no way you can say no way about any of this. The tour is a two headed monster and either could win. It should be a great battle.

 

[Andy schleck]

2) According to an interview with someone from Jumbo a while back, Vingegaard tested to have the highest oxygen uptake at high altitude they have ever seen, and they specifically mentioned it as an advantage against Pogacar.

Jumbo is the most professional team in cycling. They know something that give confidence for them, that vingegaard can beat pogacar mano a mano. Actually he already proved that. What you said makes sense.

 

[pelotonIQ]

"No way" is a bit much, there are many way to skin a cat.

He's not worse at TT-ing in week 3, although the ITT being right after a rest day, can throw a spanner in the works, as many riders perform differently the first day after a rest day.

Yes UAE has a better team this year, but it's not like it outranks Jumbo, I view them as pretty even.

People tend to forget, that Vingegaard also planted Pogacar on Hautacam, 4 stages after Roglic had left the race.

You're forgetting that Roglic abandoned after already inflicting damage onto Pogacar on stage 11, which is the stage Vingegaard won by almost 3 minutes. Roglic not participating in this years tour will leave Vingegaard as a solo leader and we already saw what happened in Paris-Nice when these two riders are left to their own devices.

Barring any crash or bad luck with covid, there is no realistic way Vingegaard wins.

 

[Gratemans]

I would say Vingo is a slight favourite over Pog for the tour. But there’s no way you can say no way about any of this. The tour is a two headed monster and either could win. It should be a great battle.

I remember posting exactly this (about two other names of course) right before the Giro...

 

[Andy schleck]

You're forgetting that Roglic abandoned after already inflicting damage onto Pogacar on stage 11, which is the stage Vingegaard won by almost 3 minutes. Roglic not participating in this years tour will leave Vingegaard as a solo leader and we already saw what happened in Paris-Nice when these two riders are left to their own devices.

Barring any crash or bad luck with covid, there is no realistic way Vingegaard wins.

Paris nice has nothing to do with the tour. Vingegaard was also beaten by gaudu at PN.

 

[pelotonIQ]

Paris nice has nothing to do with the tour. Vingegaard was also beaten by gaudu at PN.

Paris-Nice was mentioned because that was the last time these two riders met, Pogacar made Vingegaard look ordinary despite his amazing start to the season.

 

[Boehmand]

You're forgetting that Roglic abandoned after already inflicting damage onto Pogacar on stage 11, which is the stage Vingegaard won by almost 3 minutes. Roglic not participating in this years tour will leave Vingegaard as a solo leader and we already saw what happened in Paris-Nice when these two riders are left to their own devices.

Barring any crash or bad luck with covid, there is no realistic way Vingegaard wins.

I don't think I am forgetting anything

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Paris-Nice was mentioned because that was the last time these two riders met, Pogacar made Vingegaard look ordinary despite his amazing start to the season.

Vingegaard's performance in Paris-Nice, Pogačar's on Galibier/Granon and Remco's yesterday can all be viewed as them having paid the price for feeling overconfident. They are outliers and not true representations of their respective levels.

That said, a day where one of them either feels overconfident or simply has a bad day may very well be what decides this year's Tour as well.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Vingegaard's performance in Paris-Nice, Pogačar's on Galibier/Granon and Remco's yesterday can all be viewed as them having paid the price for feeling overconfident. They are outliers and not true representations of their respective levels.

That said, a day where one of them either feels overconfident or simply has a bad day may very well be what decides this year's Tour as well.

Where was Vingegaard overconfident after the first win of Pogi? He just wasn't good enough and lost to a superior rider.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Where was Vingegaard overconfident after the first win of Pogi? He just wasn't good enough and lost to a superior rider.

He wasn't overconfident afterwards, but he lost the race that day and didn't recover from it. I'm not disputing that Pogačar was the strongest rider in the race, but Vingegaard would have finished second if he had ridden smarter on stage 4.

 

[pelotonIQ]

Vingegaard's performance in Paris-Nice, Pogačar's on Galibier/Granon and Remco's yesterday can all be viewed as them having paid the price for feeling overconfident. They are outliers and not true representations of their respective levels.

That said, a day where one of them either feels overconfident or simply has a bad day may very well be what decides this year's Tour as well.

Paris-Nice was 1 vs 1 which cannot be compared to Galibier/Granon because at that point UAE was racing without 2 important domestiques in Vegard Stake Laengen and George Bennett due to positive covid-19 tests. Let's not forget that it was for the most part basically almost the whole of Jumbo vs Pogacar and later down that stage Roglic and Vingegaard 1-2 attacking Pogacar.

Sure thats bike racing but lets not pretend Vingegaard won without many things going his way and without many things going against UAE.

This tour UAE looks stronger than last year and Roglic isn't participating in this years edition, as I said barring any covid or crashes, I dont see Vingegaard outriding Pogacar in this tour.