Amstel is kinda interesting.
I think it's definitely hillier than is ideal for MvdP, and it's not that suited to long solos either. So he may actually get done by getting Sagan treatment at least. In 2022 I thought he was pretty underwhelming in Amstel
Still I don't see how he loses considering neither Pogacar nor Evenepoel are racing it.
He doesn't get the recovery time between bergs like he does at RVV. HE is a risk in this race.