The Olympic Road Race 2016. Rio de Janeiro. 253km

[LeSensei]

Re: Re:

Colombia has no chance imho. Great climbers, but no good on the flat, easily chased down by the rest.

Did you watch the past Olympic road race?

Did you watch when Giggs used to play for Manchester United? Time flies man.

 

[TMP402]

Bala and JRod

https://twitter.com/MinguezJavier/status/759689032129359872

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Colombia has no chance imho. Great climbers, but no good on the flat, easily chased down by the rest.

Did you watch the past Olympic road race?

Did you watch when Giggs used to play for Manchester United? Time flies man.

Thats a pretty weird argument.....

Colombia has a very good squad. No clear cut favourite nor captain, but they are all 5 capable.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re: Re:

I wonder how #TeamDutchie will play this now as they have 2 clear Captains in Mollema and Poels, while Major Tom and his limp wrist will probably take a backseat and fetch bottles together with Lieutenant Steve. I just hope we'll see more unity than the inevitable abomination that is #TeamSpain.

Hoping Tom will be in shape, he or Kruijswijk will be working for Mollema and Poels. Either by closing gaps or going in an early breakaway.

This will be tricky for Tom as he has his sights on the TT. So I do not expect him to be there in the final two climbs.

Stevie will have his moments but he is not yet on top form as evidenced by the showing yesterday. Question is who are the big names he will drop once my sets a high pace in the penultimate or final climb? The Dutch needs to eliminate fast men like Alaphilippe, Uran, Martin, Costa, Thomas, GVA, Albasini, etc to have a strong chance for a medal

Maybe you haven't been watching Catalunya, Dauphine or the Tour this year ..Contador, Quintana or the might of Team SKY didn't drop Dan Martin
Geez such bias

 

[HelloDolly]

If you want to know who will win the Olympic RR ...start by eliminating all those who can't /won't and work from there

 

[Asero831]

Re: Re:

I wonder how #TeamDutchie will play this now as they have 2 clear Captains in Mollema and Poels, while Major Tom and his limp wrist will probably take a backseat and fetch bottles together with Lieutenant Steve. I just hope we'll see more unity than the inevitable abomination that is #TeamSpain.

Hoping Tom will be in shape, he or Kruijswijk will be working for Mollema and Poels. Either by closing gaps or going in an early breakaway.

This will be tricky for Tom as he has his sights on the TT. So I do not expect him to be there in the final two climbs.

Stevie will have his moments but he is not yet on top form as evidenced by the showing yesterday. Question is who are the big names he will drop once my sets a high pace in the penultimate or final climb? The Dutch needs to eliminate fast men like Alaphilippe, Uran, Martin, Costa, Thomas, GVA, Albasini, etc to have a strong chance for a medal

Maybe you haven't been watching Catalunya, Dauphine or the Tour this year ..Contador, Quintana or the might of Team SKY didn't drop Dan Martin
Geez such bias

Well, Dan Martin was not able to contest Clasica San Sebastian given the explosiveness of the 1.9km final climb there. Even Roche did better than him.

 

[HelloDolly]

So let me start ...

Contador, Quintana , Pinot have pulled from the race ...siting health , etc but I think they know they cannot win this race
So by the same token I think neither Froome nor Porte will win
Thomas , Stannard will be riding for froome so no to them

Kruij** and Dumoulin are out also because Dumoulin will wisely be concentrating on TT if he rides it at all and parcours not great for SK..better Dutch hopes...so he will ride for others imo

So far that leaves Cummings, Yates, Poles, Mollema .....Cummings would have to get away far out which I don't see happening , so he is out imo

Of the Italians only Nibali has the pedgree and of the Colombians Henao & Uran for me have the strenght and one day experience.. Chaves is a great climber but would need a minder on flat sections and to chases on flat ...MAL also great climber but not again for one day races...Pentano was great at th Tour and is exceptional on downhill but cannot see him lasting with pace on final climb

Of the French i cannot see Allaphillipe or Vuillermoz lasting the multiple high climbs and Barguil will not be in great from after what was for him a tough Tour..So that leaves Bardet


So so far I have Yates, Poels, Mollema, Badet , Henao, Uran

Ion Izzagirre best bet would be to go in a break but I think it will be all in for Valverde & Purito so I don't see any other Spanish at the end

Of the other rider who will be there at the end I don't see any Norweigans, Belgians, Swiss or German in the shake down

I do see Rui Costa though and Amador , Meintjes , D Martin, Roche, Konig ,Majka ..I would have said Kwait but he looked too poor a San Seb


So imo the winner and other medals will come from the following list
Valverde, Purito, Nibali, Yates,Poels, Mollema, Badet , Henao, Uran, Rui Costa,Amador , Meintjes , D Martin, Roche, Konig ,Majka

P.S. Why did Italy not bring Brambilla ?

 

[HelloDolly]

Re: Re:

I wonder how #TeamDutchie will play this now as they have 2 clear Captains in Mollema and Poels, while Major Tom and his limp wrist will probably take a backseat and fetch bottles together with Lieutenant Steve. I just hope we'll see more unity than the inevitable abomination that is #TeamSpain.

Hoping Tom will be in shape, he or Kruijswijk will be working for Mollema and Poels. Either by closing gaps or going in an early breakaway.

This will be tricky for Tom as he has his sights on the TT. So I do not expect him to be there in the final two climbs.

Stevie will have his moments but he is not yet on top form as evidenced by the showing yesterday. Question is who are the big names he will drop once my sets a high pace in the penultimate or final climb? The Dutch needs to eliminate fast men like Alaphilippe, Uran, Martin, Costa, Thomas, GVA, Albasini, etc to have a strong chance for a medal

Maybe you haven't been watching Catalunya, Dauphine or the Tour this year ..Contador, Quintana or the might of Team SKY didn't drop Dan Martin
Geez such bias

Well, Dan Martin was not able to contest Clasica San Sebastian given the explosiveness of the 1.9km final climb there. Even Roche did better than him.

What does that prove except he had an off day and concentrating on Rio...plenty of top riders behind him ...even Roche ? Roche is in great form at the mo ..

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Re:

Thomas, Izaguirre and Kruijswijk job is to make the climbs hard with the hope that Martin, Roche, Alaphilippe, Rosa, Kwiatkowski, Majka, Wellens, GVA, Uran, Henao, Chavez, Albasini, Fuglsang, Porte will be out of contention going into the final climb.

Porte needs to have a very bad day to be dropped by any of those riders.

 

[El Pistolero]

Re: Re:

Thomas, Izaguirre and Kruijswijk job is to make the climbs hard with the hope that Martin, Roche, Alaphilippe, Rosa, Kwiatkowski, Majka, Wellens, GVA, Uran, Henao, Chavez, Albasini, Fuglsang, Porte will be out of contention going into the final climb.

Porte needs to have a very bad day to be dropped by any of those riders.

He was dropped in the Clasica San Sebastian.

 

[Bardamu]

Re: Re:

Thomas, Izaguirre and Kruijswijk job is to make the climbs hard with the hope that Martin, Roche, Alaphilippe, Rosa, Kwiatkowski, Majka, Wellens, GVA, Uran, Henao, Chavez, Albasini, Fuglsang, Porte will be out of contention going into the final climb.

Porte needs to have a very bad day to be dropped by any of those riders.

He isn't exactly a renown one-day rider, I shouldn't expect too much of Richie.

 

[Asero831]

If this is raced hard, just look at the time gaps in last years Lombardia.
I am so pump up for this race. Still gutted that Gallopin and Brambilla aren't in the race

 

[Jungle Cycle]

it takes "only" about 13min to do the hard part of the Canoas loop and the very fast last 10km is what puzzle me. i guess it wont take a 'pure" climber to win it but(i think) a explosion kind of a climber or someone from a strong break, witch there is plenty of...
Nibali already tried to attack every where to win MSR. I know its much(!!) easier than Rio but Rio has the fast final 10km. If an excellent climber capable of dropping anybody in most climbs can't hold on the flat alone for about 2km i guess it'll be very hard for a rider like him or even him+Valv for example in a 5x longer finish...
I think(!?) is easier to believe in a Froome/Kiwa kind of attack and then powerful enough to hold on alone against whoever is left of the climb...
Hoping for someone from the break.
Forecast calls for good weather(22-25c) and not too windy..

 

[HelloDolly]

Phase 2 of the eliminatin process ...find the winner

So imo the winner and other medals will come from the following list
Valverde, Purito, Nibali, Yates,Poels, Mollema, Badet , Henao, Uran, Rui Costa,Amador , Meintjes , D Martin, Roche, Konig ,Majka

So whatever about the medals the winner will come from whoeever rode the Tour ...so that eliminates Uran, Amador, Roche & Konig

I am inclined also based on experience and strength in one day races to eliminate Meintjes & Majka

So that leaves for today the following gold medal candidates as-
Valverde, Purito, Nibali, Yates, Poels, Mollema, Badet, Henao, Rui Costa, D Martin

 

[doperhopper]

The winner is clear: The Third One - whoever comes to the top with Bala and Burrito... and rides away from them while they look at each other

 

[Escarabajo]

I guess Colombians can be accused of everything except of hyping our cyclists . Looking at this poll Colombians have the least votes of the main favorites. I am sure they have better chances than the other riders being hyped here that are higher on the polls.

 

[BigMac]

Re: Who will win Olympics Road Race 2016 Rio

Maybe not here, but the hype sure is real in Rigo's Facebook page. I almost feel sorry for him, always so humble having to deal with so much expectations. Hopefully his hard work pays off.

 

[HelloDolly]

And now for my 3rd elimination process

So that leaves for today the following gold medal candidates as-
Valverde, Purito, Nibali, Yates, Poels, Mollema, Badet, Henao, Rui Costa, D Martin

There are some possible scenarios - (all very scientific btw :lol: )

1) Which riders imo can make a difference acroos the whole final climb = Poels ,Nibali, Purito, Bardet
Of these which 3 can hold on best on down hill = Nibali , Bardet, Poels

2) Which riders can make a distance by sprinting at top of last the climb = Mollema Purito, Dan Martin, Poels, Bardet, Henao,Yates,Valverde

Of these which 3 can hold on best on down hill= Martin, Bardet ,Yates

3) which riders can make differnce on the down hill = Valverde , Nibali, Bardet

4) If a bunch of the above come to the finale together which riders can win a sprint = Valverde Dan Martin, Rui Costa

5) Which riders are best placed to make a break stick on second last climb = ,Nibali, Yates, Purito, Bardet, Martin,Mollema

So from the above the mentions per rider areas follows =
Mollema = 2
Poels = 3
Yates = 3
Costa = 1
Henao = 1
Bardet = 5
Martin = 5
Valverde = 3
Purito = 3
Nibali = 4


So qed my final 3 contenders for gold are
Nibali, Bardet & Martin

(don't blame me blame the science :geek: )

 

[toolittle]

Re: Re:

There are cobbled sections (Big rocks) in Rio road race with climbs...

1. Beglium is hottest favour.
2. Colombia - Uran is my pick also.
Then, there are
Great British - Geraint Thomas
Slovakia - Sagan

 

[Billie]

1) Which riders imo can make a difference acroos the whole final climb = Poels ,Nibali, Martin, Purito, Bardet

Dan Martin? When has he ever done that?

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

There are cobbled sections (Big rocks) in Rio road race with climbs...

1. Beglium is hottest favour.
2. Colombia - Uran is my pick also.
Then, there are
Great British - Geraint Thomas
Slovakia - Sagan

Sagan rides the MTB race.
Wasn't the route changed and there aren't any cobbles in the race anymore?

 

[Laplaz]

Anyone knows why Jungels wasn't considered? Much stronger than Fränk this year.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re:

1) Which riders imo can make a difference acroos the whole final climb = Poels ,Nibali, Martin, Purito, Bardet

Dan Martin? When has he ever done that?

Yes..ok...I amended it but he is still in the final 3

 

[46&twoWheels]

Re:

And now for my 3rd elimination process

So that leaves for today the following gold medal candidates as-
Valverde, Purito, Nibali, Yates, Poels, Mollema, Badet, Henao, Rui Costa, D Martin

There are some possible scenarios - (all very scientific btw :lol: )

1) Which riders imo can make a difference acroos the whole final climb = Poels ,Nibali, Purito, Bardet
Of these which 3 can hold on best on down hill = Nibali , Bardet, Poels

2) Which riders can make a distance by sprinting at top of last the climb = Mollema Purito, Dan Martin, Poels, Bardet, Henao,Yates,Valverde

Of these which 3 can hold on best on down hill= Martin, Bardet ,Yates

3) which riders can make differnce on the down hill = Valverde , Nibali, Bardet

4) If a bunch of the above come to the finale together which riders can win a sprint = Valverde Dan Martin, Rui Costa

5) Which riders are best placed to make a break stick on second last climb = ,Nibali, Yates, Purito, Bardet, Martin,Mollema

So from the above the mentions per rider areas follows =
Mollema = 2
Poels = 3
Yates = 3
Costa = 1
Henao = 1
Bardet = 5
Martin = 5
Valverde = 3
Purito = 3
Nibali = 4


So qed my final 3 contenders for gold are
Nibali, Bardet & Martin

(don't blame me blame the science :geek: )

nice,it looks fun
Basically the best all-around has more chance
maybe to further implement that model one should insert the order in which long climb/descent/steep climb and sprint follows.
So those value would change during the race

I would still give a chance to Mollema in case he can hold his own with the best until the final centimeter

 

[Escarabajo]

I think the descend won't determine the winner unless such rider is alone going to the finish line. I think it will be a reduced bunch sprint and that's why The odds are in favor of Valverde. There are also Uran, Costa and Martin.

I am rooting for Pantano if he can climb well with the rest but I am not sure that he will be able to do that.