Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Oldermanish]

I think remains the same as the end of last year—we don’t know how he will fare in a GT with high mountain stages featuring multiple 2000m+ climbs. Especially in a 3rd week. We won’t know that till he performs in those. I understand people want to try to anticipate but on the other hand it’s ridiculous that folks (not at all just you) keep trying to extrapolate his possible GT future from these races. For the same reason I don’t see how you can call him an Ullrich clone when Ullrich was a monster-GT performer.

Not to restate the obvious but Ullrich was on a serious program, too; so it is difficult to know what his comparable talent level could be. Remco has a bigger upside, given time as I keep saying.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

In case of Remco, the length (as in real mountains) seems to be a bigger factor than gradient.

Isn't the Ulrich comparison a bit off? Ulrich was a TT climber who was great in the high mountains.

Remco is not a climber. He is a time trialist who is also a great diesel in hilly and medium mountain terrain.

Remco is heavy like a dock worker right now (® @Logic-is-your-friend). It's obvious that steep gradients (when almost 100% of resistive force is gravity) are more difficult for him than shallow gradients. When he loses weight it should be easier for him.

 

[postmanhat]

Am late on to the Evenepoel bandwagon so this has probably been discussed before, but is it set in stone that he won't be riding The TDF this year? What little I know of the course seems so much more suited to him. Whereas the Vuelta traditionally contains of all his atm, perceived weaknesses.

 

[johnymax]

He was better than expected in the last stage. Congrats on a very good performance this week. He is on the right track.

 

[Ripper]

Remco is heavy like a dock worker right now (® @Logic-is-your-friend). It's obvious that steep gradients (when almost 100% of resistive force is gravity) are more difficult for him than shallow gradients. When he loses weight it should be easier for him.

Indeed! And I am not too sure about why so heavy. There are plenty of elite athletes who have done serious strength and power training to get more explosive, without gaining an enormous amount of weight. I seem to recall the same thing about Wout (I think it was his own comments) ... Is it some sort of silly Belgian training?

Honestly, if he loses just a little bit of weight, and I'm not talking about looking skeletal like some people, he should fare much better on mountainous stages.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Am late on to the Evenepoel bandwagon so this has probably been discussed before, but is it set in stone that he won't be riding The TDF this year? What little I know of the course seems so much more suited to him. Whereas the Vuelta traditionally contains of all his atm, perceived weaknesses.

That's the plan. He has worked a lot on short efforts in his season prep with the Ardennes classics in mind. That means he hasn't worked a lot on longer climbs and that he has gained a lot of muscle weight (which hasn't really been helping on the harder climbs). He's a lot bulkier and muscular than exactly one year ago. The plan is to work on that towards the Vuelta, which has more TT kms than the other GT's this year.

 

[Netserk]

You know what, on a good day (say ~15 % chance) I can imagine him bridge to the best on the extended part of RaF. I'm not quite sure what to expect wrt to his endurance. But I have even higher expectations for Liège than in January.

I don't think he can stay slim (like at his slimmest) for long and hold form, but it's nothing more than a hunch at this point. If I go out on a limb, the extra muscle may also benefit his long term recovery.

 

[houtdffan]

That's the plan. He has worked a lot on short efforts in his season prep with the Ardennes classics in mind. That means he hasn't worked a lot on longer climbs and that he has gained a lot of muscle weight (which hasn't really been helping on the harder climbs). He's a lot bulkier and muscular than exactly one year ago. The plan is to work on that towards the Vuelta, which has more TT kms than the other GT's this year.

Doesn't the tour have more ITT km?

 

[peterfin]

My point is that he is nowhere near a real climber like Ulrich who had the ability to be good in the high altitude for over 3 weeks.

Let him first ride at high altitude for 3 weeks before making claims.

 

[Sciatic]

Not to restate the obvious but Ullrich was on a serious program, too; so it is difficult to know what his comparable talent level could be. Remco has a bigger upside, given time as I keep saying.

I’m not questioning that (his potential upside) and will root for that to be the case. I was pointing out (which is probably fruitless, I know) that the biggest question will be performance in the high mtn stages, particularly in 3 was, and that we can’t know that until he actually goes through it. So the extrapolations from steep short climbs or lower altitude climbs or one week races cannot answer that. But I do understand many of us are looking forward to finding out, and it’s tempting—and I suppose fun for some folks—to keep trying to predict what will happen.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Doesn't the tour have more ITT km?

I didn't think so? And the Vuelta also has a TTT on top of that.
EDIT, yes ITT is more in TDF 13 + 40. In the Vuelta the ITT is 31 and the TTT is 23. Somehow i was under the impression the TDF had less TT km.

 

[Netserk]

Tour ITTs are 13 km and 40 km, Vuelta ~31 km and the opening TTT.

But compared to the mountains, the Vuelta is far more TT friendly.

 

[hayneplane]

One of the most positive aspects of the week was how much they have got him psychologically primed to descend strongly which understandably took a while to repair after the Lombardia crash. That threatened to be a weakness large enough to derail hopes of becoming a podium finisher in Grand Tours whereas now he is very capable.

 

[Big Doopie]

One of the most positive aspects of the week was how much they have got him psychologically primed to descend strongly which understandably took a while to repair after the Lombardia crash. That threatened to be a weakness large enough to derail hopes of becoming a podium finisher in Grand Tours whereas now he is very capable.

totally, he descended super well.

 

[houtdffan]

Remco needs to do the tour this year

May not be able to beat Pog, but he has a better chance there than the Vuelta.

More ITT kms, plus, some of the uphill finishes, especially the 2 Jura stages to Les Portes du Soleil and the stage to Les Gets are basically made for Remco. Nice shallow to moderate gradients, where he showed this week, he can drop Rog at least. Plenty of stages for him to make time at le Tour.

At la Vuelta, I expect Pog to crush him on the Muritos

 

[Nick2413]

He was fun to watch this week. Stronger than expected and hung on better than expected the times he got dropped. Definitely showing some promise but still a tier below the level of climbing needed to win a GT. Cutting a few kg could make up some of the difference but at what cost to everything else? In the past when he was lighter was he still a step behind on climbs? Overall he definitely helped make the race exciting and would be great to see him duking it out at the top of big races, but still a coin flip if that’ll happen.

 

[houtdffan]

He was fun to watch this week. Stronger than expected and hung on better than expected the times he got dropped. Definitely showing some promise but still a tier below the level of climbing needed to win a GT. Cutting a few kg could make up some of the difference but at what cost to everything else? In the past when he was lighter was he still a step behind on climbs? Overall he definitely helped make the race exciting and would be great to see him duking it out at the top of big races, but still a coin flip if that’ll happen.

He lost a whole 24 seconds today. With the Contador era TTs of 20-25 km in this race, he wins this in his sleep

In TA, on his bad day, he was still 13th on that stage.

This is damn good for races that are not his main targets. It's not like he's Armstrong or Froome losing 20 min plus.

Nobody gave him a chance to finish better than Rog. He handled Rog just fine

 

[SHAD0W93]

How much would Martinez have helped though if he was 30-60 seconds behind Evenepoel vs 3 or however much it was. The longer time trial absolutely helps him out but maybe he loses More time from having to pull by himself.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

At la Vuelta, I expect Pog Rog to crush him on the Muritos

Fixed it for you. Pog may not even ride Vuelta (or will be tired, same can happen to Rog) while Remco probably wouldn't be able to lose mass and prepare for the Tour on time.

 

[AlfaLum]

I really enjoyed his performance this week. What are racer this guy is. Have you been watching Jonas? You might learn a thing or two..

 

[Extinction]

Definitely showing some promise but still a tier below the level of climbing needed to win a GT. Cutting a few kg could make up some of the difference but at what cost to everything else? In the past when he was lighter was he still a step behind on climbs?

Well, he obviously needs to cut those 2-3 kilos in such a way that he maintains the watts he is generating at his current weight (that way he automatically goes faster), otherwise there would be no point, as the one gain would be offset by the other loss. So the big question for him and those training him at Quick Step is; is it possible to lose weight and maintain power? Secondly, in the past when he was lighter, for example at last year's Giro, he was underprepared and thus that is not the gauge to go by. At any rate, I bet it is possible, with the right preparation, for him to get down to last year's Giro weight and have significantly more power. This must be what Quick Step is betting on too for the Vuelta, which they have already said in so many words: "It will be a different Remco at the Vuelta." And considering that he started that Giro with 0 racing in his legs, it must be achievable. Then we will be able to see what a top shape and ideally prepped Remco is able to do at 21 years old (which is another consideration, for he isn't 27 or even 25 yet). This is why I laugh a bit when I read people already writing him and his career off. It simply makes no logical sense.

 

[hayneplane]

He lost a whole 24 seconds today. With the Contador era TTs of 20-25 km in this race, he wins this in his sleep

In TA, on his bad day, he was still 13th on that stage.

This is damn good for races that are not his main targets. It's not like he's Armstrong or Froome losing 20 min plus.

Nobody gave him a chance to finish better than Rog. He handled Rog just fine

Maybe, maybe not as if the gap was larger after a longer TT the other riders would have felt more need to push on in previous stages when they dropped Remco by a few seconds instead of easing that allowed him to drag himself back into the main pack. With the smaller time gap they all felt like they could crack him on the final day which they did to enough extent to knock him off the podium but it was still an impressive step forward in his development.

 

[Red Rick]

He lost a whole 24 seconds today. With the Contador era TTs of 20-25 km in this race, he wins this in his sleep

In TA, on his bad day, he was still 13th on that stage.

This is damn good for races that are not his main targets. It's not like he's Armstrong or Froome losing 20 min plus.

Nobody gave him a chance to finish better than Rog. He handled Rog just fine

Rog was carrying an injury going into this race. Still beat him in the ITT.

 

[peterfin]

I conclude that it was a good training week in preparation of the Ardennes classics. Looking forward to it!

 

[Prim]

I feel like the effort he put into winning the last sprint had a major effect on how he fared the last climb. Once he got rid of the lactic acid the gap stabilized.