Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Red Rick]

The only explanation for it is unreliable wattage calculation. They base them on some formulas (probably varying between sources) that don't take into account real conditions (wind, road quality, fatigue factors, weather conditions etc) and obviously in most cases nobody knows real wattages from riders' powermeters. VAM is better for comparisons (at least for similar gradients) but it also doesn't take into account the unknown factors.

I think calculations are reliable enough, the unknown factors just mean we should not stare ourselves blind on the outlier performances where these unknown variables enable huge performances.

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

Based on what was that ''clearly too low''? I can't remember many modern day GC riders of his size weighing much more than that. I think his Giro failure had more to do with the way his comeback was handled than his weight. It might be too low for top-end TT efforts though that should not be a focus in a climbing-heavy/TT-starving GT era, but certainly not in the sense of it being unhealthy for a GC rider.

Because in May 2021 the 60/61 kg weight was not based on only balanced quality training. Nor on a good basis. The weight loss was forced. Boxers, weightlifters, judocas also apply that forced weight loss before their competition or for their one day that they have to perform. Although they do lose some strength, they usually manage to survive that match or match day in their weight category. But stageriders can't. Maybe a few days. But not for weeks. That's the reason Evenepoel did't perform after a few days, last year in the Giro.
The loss of weight for the Vuelta will be achieved in a different, balanced way. Evenepoel will therefore perform better in the Vuelta, and also finish it. With a good result. Probably not with the overall win. It's a few years too early for that

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

That's the reason Evenepoel did't perform after a few days, last year in the Giro.

Yes, that was the reason.

 

[houtdffan]

Because in May 2021 the 60/61 kg weight was not based on only balanced quality training. Nor on a good basis. The weight loss was forced. Boxers, weightlifters, judocas also apply that forced weight loss before their competition or for their one day that they have to perform. Although they do lose some strength, they usually manage to survive that match or match day in their weight category. But stageriders can't. Maybe a few days. But not for weeks. That's the reason Evenepoel did't perform after a few days, last year in the Giro.
The loss of weight for the Vuelta will be achieved in a different, balanced way. Evenepoel will therefore perform better in the Vuelta, and also finish it. With a good result. Probably not with the overall win. It's a few years too early for that

years? GT winners win in their young 20s these days

 

[Berflamand]

30th win, 9th GC victory. Well done.

Now on to the TdS and La Vuelta, really curious to see how he stacks up against the very best in this form.

 

[Big Doopie]

and getting ever closer to rog and wva in rankings.

not bad first year after a career-threatening injury.

 

[Netserk]

and getting ever closer to rog and wva in rankings.

not bad first year after a career-threatening injury.

It's been 1 year, 9 months and 2 weeks. Not exactly first year.

 

[Bonimenier]

It's been 1 year, 9 months and 2 weeks. Not exactly first year.

I'm sure you're smart enough to figure out what was meant.

 

[Netserk]

I'm sure you're smart enough to figure out what was meant.

So last year was the zeroth year after his fall?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

So after good preparations Remco seems to be in full flight this year. Like other cycling fans I'm obviously looking forward to see him in action at a GT. It's time to make the next step and he is ready, I think.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

So last year was the zeroth year after his fall?

This is the first season with a normal preparation.

 

[Netserk]

This is the first season with a normal preparation.

When was it that he was on a bike again, November (2020)?

 

[Mayomaniac]

I think calculations are reliable enough, the unknown factors just mean we should not stare ourselves blind on the outlier performances where these unknown variables enable huge performances.

Yeah, nowadays we also have enough riders post their actual numbers on strava that we can make very educated guesses that usually are pretty close to reality.
Hell, nowadays even CT sputniks like Mauricio Moreira and Igor Frolov post their actual numbers online, things can be pretty wild.
That Almeida graph really shows what an outliner that Piancavallo stage was.

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah, nowadays we also have enough riders post their actual numbers on strava that we can make very educated guesses that usually are pretty close to reality.
Hell, nowadays even CT sputniks like Mauricio Moreira and Igor Frolov post their actual numbers online, things can be pretty wild.
That Almeida graph really shows what an outliner that Piancavallo stage was.

My favorite example is that Froome's Finestre climb in 2018 was a full 2 seconds faster than 2015 Contador when he got dropped like a rock at the end.

 

[Mayomaniac]

My favorite example is that Froome's Finestre climb in 2018 was a full 2 seconds faster than 2015 Contador when he got dropped like a rock at the end.

Yeah, but that stage also got raced full gas from the start and Yates went balls to the walls for 2 weeks, making every hilly stage super hard. People were collapsing left and right at the end of that Giro.

The I see stuff like Frolov doing 307W at 63kg for 3:47:50 in an actual hilly stage or 5.664 W/KG for over 102min on a climb that finished at over 2,500m of altitude and i realized how big the world is...

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

When was it that he was on a bike again, November (2020)?

Something like that. Then he had to take another longer break just after. There is a reason why he went into the Giro with 0 race days. You can’t argue he had anywhere close to a “normal preparation” to last season.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I'm sure you're smart enough to figure out what was meant.

Guess not.

 

[Netserk]

No, of course not, but for how long after can it be continued to be mentioned as an extra obstacle that makes his new performances even more impressive. Like emphasising over and over again how impressive Armstrong's Tour in 1999 was because he came back from cancer. And several years later, oh he could have won even more, wasn't it truly extraordinary that he came back from cancer. Over and over again.

The vibe in this thread:

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah, but that stage also got raced full gas from the start and Yates went balls to the walls for 2 weeks, making every hilly stage super hard. People were collapsing left and right at the end of that Giro.

The I see stuff like Frolov doing 307W at 63kg for 3:47:50 in an actual hilly stage or 5.664 W/KG for over 102min on a climb that finished at over 2,500m of altitude and i realized how big the world is...

Well I don't know that it's that much down to overall fatigue, considering Zoncolan was much faster in 2018 than in 2014 and 2011, and 2011 still had the Gardecchia stage as well and probably had the overall hardest route. I think it's more likely to be day by day variation. Pratonevoso the day before was fast.

On a single raceday I think fatigue can be used much more easily to explain variation in performance than over an entire Grand Tour.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Regarding the sprint yesterday, i haven't seen any helicopter footage, but this wider angle view shows there is really nothing going on in that sprint imho. He comes out of that bend at full speed and takes a natural line without sudden movements or swerving. The fact that Johannessen is immediately to his left, and takes a similar trajectory rather confirms that. If Evenepoel took an unnatural line drifting to the right, then Johannessen had no reason to follow him there since Johannessen was on the inside corner, it would only means extra meters to the finish.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otxnNvAbVt0&t=17236s

 

[Mayomaniac]

Well I don't know that it's that much down to overall fatigue, considering Zoncolan was much faster in 2018 than in 2014 and 2011, and 2011 still had the Gardecchia stage as well and probably had the overall hardest route. I think it's more likely to be day by day variation. Pratonevoso the day before was fast.

On a single raceday I think fatigue can be used much more easily to explain variation in performance than over an entire Grand Tour.

About that Almeida graph, it really shows hm much of an outliner that Piancavallo stage was.

 

[hayneplane]

30th win, 9th GC victory. Well done.

Now on to the TdS and La Vuelta, really curious to see how he stacks up against the very best in this form.

9 stage races of any level is seriously impressive at that age.

I wonder how many active riders under 30 have as many on their palmares. Beyond Pogacar I could not say any other names with certainty.

 

[Bonimenier]

9 stage races of any level is seriously impressive at that age.

I wonder how many active riders under 30 have as many on their palmares. Beyond Pogacar I could not say any other names with certainty.

Those 2 and Bernal are the only ones under 30 with at least 8.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1530921437627924480

 

[hayneplane]

Those 2 and Bernal are the only ones under 30 with at least 8.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1530921437627924480

Woah Demare has 8 stage race wins. I bet none of them are outside France or world tour level

 

[peterfin]

His win percentage (of GCs > 2.1) is also impressive: 43% (9/21). I believe only Pogacar does better of all active riders (10/21). For a fair comparison it's probably best to look at the first 30 GCs max or so but I believe that doesn't change the outcome. The average quality of his wins are of course less than Pogacar and a few others on the list but it is still an impressive stat for a 22 year old.