Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

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Temperature was ideal.

I'm a bit interested in air pressure fluctuations in relation to power outputs but there's never any data on that.
Low elevation power. They started almost from the sea level. If Remco had 6.5 w/kg then Vine Jay had 6.4 w/kg for 30+ minutes - Pogacar's level.
What was Evenepoel's VAM? It must have been close to 1850 for this wattage.
 
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Low elevation power. They started almost from the sea level. If Remco had 6.5 w/kg then Vine Jay had 6.4 w/kg for 30+ minutes - Pogacar's level.
What was Evenepoel's VAM? It must have been close to 1850 for this wattage.
Elevation plays a part yes. Low elevation unipuerto climbs are by far the best for extreme W/kg efforts, and I do think elevation is too easily ignored when very high W/kg numbers come out. And this is arguably what makes Hindleys climb insane yesterday, as he did 6.5W/kg for almost 19 minutes at like 1700m average altitude.

Even then it's still a high value. It's not like some big GT unipuerto performances are much higher. I think Yates at Alpe di Mera, Roglic at Moncalvillo, and Roglic/Valverde at Acebo, as well as Valverde in Catalunya 2017 were all in similarish ranges.

Now while the number is raelly high it's hard to extrapolate. If you ever see the W/kg vs time graphs from CyclingGraphs or Lanterne Rouge you may note that whether a number is really high or not compared to others does not really seem to correlate with wether it was the winning or best performance of that day. Some mighty performances compared to the rest of the field can often look really weak on such graphs.

If you take Almeidas example here. Sega di Ala looks like one of his weaker climbs. Yet it's the only time he was the best of a group of WT GC riders. Meanwhile on Piancavallo, his best performance in this graph, he was hard dropped. I'm sure that even for frigging Nibali Piancavallo 2020 looks like a good performance.

 
Elevation plays a part yes. Low elevation unipuerto climbs are by far the best for extreme W/kg efforts, and I do think elevation is too easily ignored when very high W/kg numbers come out. And this is arguably what makes Hindleys climb insane yesterday, as he did 6.5W/kg for almost 19 minutes at like 1700m average altitude.

Even then it's still a high value. It's not like some big GT unipuerto performances are much higher. I think Yates at Alpe di Mera, Roglic at Moncalvillo, and Roglic/Valverde at Acebo, as well as Valverde in Catalunya 2017 were all in similarish ranges.

Now while the number is raelly high it's hard to extrapolate. If you ever see the W/kg vs time graphs from CyclingGraphs or Lanterne Rouge you may note that whether a number is really high or not compared to others does not really seem to correlate with wether it was the winning or best performance of that day. Some mighty performances compared to the rest of the field can often look really weak on such graphs.

If you take Almeidas example here. Sega di Ala looks like one of his weaker climbs. Yet it's the only time he was the best of a group of WT GC riders. Meanwhile on Piancavallo, his best performance in this graph, he was hard dropped. I'm sure that even for frigging Nibali Piancavallo 2020 looks like a good performance.

The only explanation for it is unreliable wattage calculation. They base them on some formulas (probably varying between sources) that don't take into account real conditions (wind, road quality, fatigue factors, weather conditions etc) and obviously in most cases nobody knows real wattages from riders' powermeters. VAM is better for comparisons (at least for similar gradients) but it also doesn't take into account the unknown factors.

I'm not questioning Evenepoel's performance but how the hell did Vine Jay (weighting almost 70 kg) achieve such a phenomenal wattage? (6.4 w/kg i.e. 440 watts: for 30+ minutes!). The guy should be a multiple GT winner by now.
 
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The only explanation for it is unreliable wattage calculation. They base them on some formulas (probably varying between sources) that don't take into account real conditions (wind, road quality, fatigue factors, weather conditions etc) and obviously in most cases nobody knows real wattages from riders' powermeters. VAM is better for comparisons (at least for similar gradients) but it also doesn't take into account the unknown factors.
I think calculations are reliable enough, the unknown factors just mean we should not stare ourselves blind on the outlier performances where these unknown variables enable huge performances.
 
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Based on what was that ''clearly too low''? I can't remember many modern day GC riders of his size weighing much more than that. I think his Giro failure had more to do with the way his comeback was handled than his weight. It might be too low for top-end TT efforts though that should not be a focus in a climbing-heavy/TT-starving GT era, but certainly not in the sense of it being unhealthy for a GC rider.
Because in May 2021 the 60/61 kg weight was not based on only balanced quality training. Nor on a good basis. The weight loss was forced. Boxers, weightlifters, judocas also apply that forced weight loss before their competition or for their one day that they have to perform. Although they do lose some strength, they usually manage to survive that match or match day in their weight category. But stageriders can't. Maybe a few days. But not for weeks. That's the reason Evenepoel did't perform after a few days, last year in the Giro.
The loss of weight for the Vuelta will be achieved in a different, balanced way. Evenepoel will therefore perform better in the Vuelta, and also finish it. With a good result. Probably not with the overall win. It's a few years too early for that
 
Because in May 2021 the 60/61 kg weight was not based on only balanced quality training. Nor on a good basis. The weight loss was forced. Boxers, weightlifters, judocas also apply that forced weight loss before their competition or for their one day that they have to perform. Although they do lose some strength, they usually manage to survive that match or match day in their weight category. But stageriders can't. Maybe a few days. But not for weeks. That's the reason Evenepoel did't perform after a few days, last year in the Giro.
The loss of weight for the Vuelta will be achieved in a different, balanced way. Evenepoel will therefore perform better in the Vuelta, and also finish it. With a good result. Probably not with the overall win. It's a few years too early for that
years? GT winners win in their young 20s these days
 
I think calculations are reliable enough, the unknown factors just mean we should not stare ourselves blind on the outlier performances where these unknown variables enable huge performances.
Yeah, nowadays we also have enough riders post their actual numbers on strava that we can make very educated guesses that usually are pretty close to reality.
Hell, nowadays even CT sputniks like Mauricio Moreira and Igor Frolov post their actual numbers online, things can be pretty wild.
That Almeida graph really shows what an outliner that Piancavallo stage was.
 
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Yeah, nowadays we also have enough riders post their actual numbers on strava that we can make very educated guesses that usually are pretty close to reality.
Hell, nowadays even CT sputniks like Mauricio Moreira and Igor Frolov post their actual numbers online, things can be pretty wild.
That Almeida graph really shows what an outliner that Piancavallo stage was.
My favorite example is that Froome's Finestre climb in 2018 was a full 2 seconds faster than 2015 Contador when he got dropped like a rock at the end.
 
My favorite example is that Froome's Finestre climb in 2018 was a full 2 seconds faster than 2015 Contador when he got dropped like a rock at the end.
Yeah, but that stage also got raced full gas from the start and Yates went balls to the walls for 2 weeks, making every hilly stage super hard. People were collapsing left and right at the end of that Giro.

The I see stuff like Frolov doing 307W at 63kg for 3:47:50 in an actual hilly stage or 5.664 W/KG for over 102min on a climb that finished at over 2,500m of altitude and i realized how big the world is...
 
No, of course not, but for how long after can it be continued to be mentioned as an extra obstacle that makes his new performances even more impressive. Like emphasising over and over again how impressive Armstrong's Tour in 1999 was because he came back from cancer. And several years later, oh he could have won even more, wasn't it truly extraordinary that he came back from cancer. Over and over again.

The vibe in this thread:
 
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Yeah, but that stage also got raced full gas from the start and Yates went balls to the walls for 2 weeks, making every hilly stage super hard. People were collapsing left and right at the end of that Giro.

The I see stuff like Frolov doing 307W at 63kg for 3:47:50 in an actual hilly stage or 5.664 W/KG for over 102min on a climb that finished at over 2,500m of altitude and i realized how big the world is...
Well I don't know that it's that much down to overall fatigue, considering Zoncolan was much faster in 2018 than in 2014 and 2011, and 2011 still had the Gardecchia stage as well and probably had the overall hardest route. I think it's more likely to be day by day variation. Pratonevoso the day before was fast.

On a single raceday I think fatigue can be used much more easily to explain variation in performance than over an entire Grand Tour.
 
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Regarding the sprint yesterday, i haven't seen any helicopter footage, but this wider angle view shows there is really nothing going on in that sprint imho. He comes out of that bend at full speed and takes a natural line without sudden movements or swerving. The fact that Johannessen is immediately to his left, and takes a similar trajectory rather confirms that. If Evenepoel took an unnatural line drifting to the right, then Johannessen had no reason to follow him there since Johannessen was on the inside corner, it would only means extra meters to the finish.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otxnNvAbVt0&t=17236s
 
Well I don't know that it's that much down to overall fatigue, considering Zoncolan was much faster in 2018 than in 2014 and 2011, and 2011 still had the Gardecchia stage as well and probably had the overall hardest route. I think it's more likely to be day by day variation. Pratonevoso the day before was fast.

On a single raceday I think fatigue can be used much more easily to explain variation in performance than over an entire Grand Tour.
About that Almeida graph, it really shows hm much of an outliner that Piancavallo stage was.
 
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