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Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

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I'm actually rather interested in the battle for LBL and whether Pog - Remco can make it a 2 man show.

Logic would dictate that:
  • Remco is still on the way up (since he focusses on Giro)
  • Pog should be on his way down as his peak was now.
So i think they should be very worthy to go head to head. They both have completely different characteristics as riders, but what they share is attack drive, battling early and in the open.


Albeit, given Pog sprint/acceleration I think i give him the tactical advantage. Maybe Remco can have a tactical advantage with Alla if he reaches his best top level.. but haven't seen any evidence of that for now.
Tadej would do good to be at a high peak for LBL, otherwise Remco will just ride away like he's known to do.
 
Yesterday I wondered if Remco would be able to close that 15s gap between MVDP and Pogacar? We may see a similar scenario during LBL if Pogacar accelerates on la Roche-aux-Faucons. The opposite might also happen but I give it a lower probability. In any case, if Pogacar makes the gap, what does he need at the top to ensure Remco can't catch up before the final sprint? It's mostly downhill so maybe 10s is enough.
 
Yesterday I wondered if Remco would be able to close that 15s gap between MVDP and Pogacar? We may see a similar scenario during LBL if Pogacar accelerates on la Roche-aux-Faucons. The opposite might also happen but I give it a lower probability. In any case, if Pogacar makes the gap, what does he need at the top to ensure Remco can't catch up before the final sprint? It's mostly downhill so maybe 10s is enough.
He needs at least 20s. Remco will easily close that gap in his TT position. But eventually Pogacar will win the sprint, so Remco needs to drop him, not the other way around
 
For Evenepoel it's really about how well he manages Kwaremont and the more nasty cobbled hills. Once it's just about pure solo ability you very easily back him to pull back significant chunks of time, but then I also don't favor Evenepoel to outsprint Pogacar.

So put Evenepoel in there and presumably it mainly benefits MvdP
 
I'm actually rather interested in the battle for LBL and whether Pog - Remco can make it a 2 man show.

Logic would dictate that:
  • Remco is still on the way up (since he focusses on Giro)
  • Pog should be on his way down as his peak was now.
So i think they should be very worthy to go head to head. They both have completely different characteristics as riders, but what they share is attack drive, battling early and in the open.


Albeit, given Pog sprint/acceleration I think i give him the tactical advantage. Maybe Remco can have a tactical advantage with Alla if he reaches his best top level.. but haven't seen any evidence of that for now.
So far when they went head to head in 1 day races, either one of them was a no-show or irrelevant in the race finale, when the other was actually one of the protagonists.
Pogacar was nowhere in San Sebastian twice and in Emilia resulting in DNF, he was mostly irrelevant in the WCC and the ECC where he didn't come close to rivalling Evenepoel.
Evenepoel was a non-factor in Lombardia '21 and the Olympic road race.

They've faced off more than you would think, but we've never seen them go toe to toe in a one-day race.
 
I'm actually rather interested in the battle for LBL and whether Pog - Remco can make it a 2 man show.

Logic would dictate that:
  • Remco is still on the way up (since he focusses on Giro)
  • Pog should be on his way down as his peak was now.
So i think they should be very worthy to go head to head. They both have completely different characteristics as riders, but what they share is attack drive, battling early and in the open.


Albeit, given Pog sprint/acceleration I think i give him the tactical advantage. Maybe Remco can have a tactical advantage with Alla if he reaches his best top level.. but haven't seen any evidence of that for now.

After what we saw at Catalyuna, you may be underestimating Remco's sprint quite a bit. It may be the advantage to Remco if it comes down to a 2 man sprint. Pog's sprinting has not been very good this year compared to his reputation
 
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Yesterday I wondered if Remco would be able to close that 15s gap between MVDP and Pogacar? We may see a similar scenario during LBL if Pogacar accelerates on la Roche-aux-Faucons. The opposite might also happen but I give it a lower probability. In any case, if Pogacar makes the gap, what does he need at the top to ensure Remco can't catch up before the final sprint? It's mostly downhill so maybe 10s is enough.
At least in Flanders, yesterday looked more like a data point that the rider who has the most left is the rider who will do best on the flats on the run in to the finish. We know what Remco is capable of, but if he were to get dropped like MVDP was in Flanders I don’t think he would come back. If he were really able to TT back a lot of time in a short span I don’t think he’d get dropped in the first place.
 
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At least in Flanders, yesterday looked more like a data point that the rider who has the most left is the rider who will do best on the flats on the run in to the finish. We know what Remco is capable of, but if he were to get dropped like MVDP was in Flanders I don’t think he would come back. If he were really able to TT back a lot of time in a short span I don’t think he’d get dropped in the first place.
I don't see how getting dropped on a steep 4 minute cobbled climb, would automatically mean he isn't capable of doing a solo effort on the flat afterwards. Pogacar being more punchy on short efforts and being better skilled as well as better built physically for cobbles, surely should have no bearing on Evenepoel's rouleur capabilities? Getting dropped doesn't have to mean he is spent, there is simply a limit to how fast he can go on a climb like this, and likely Pogacar's limit here is higher.
 
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I don't see how getting dropped on a steep 4 minute cobbled climb, would automatically mean he isn't capable of doing a solo effort on the flat afterwards. Pogacar being more punchy on short efforts and being better skilled as well as better built physically for cobbles, surely should have no bearing on Evenepoel's rouleur capabilities? Getting dropped doesn't have to mean he is spent, there is simply a limit to how fast he can go on a climb like this, and likely Pogacar's limit here is higher.
That was also supposed to be the story for the last 2 monuments, especially in Ronde with the headwind we heard about all week. But chasing groups involving superior TTer(s) continued to lose time to the solo rider in front. At any rate, I think Pog and Remco are close enough in TT ability (but Remco significantly stronger) that whoever comes over the top first would be able to keep it together if the gap is 10+ seconds. I am expecting Remco to be in better form and take the win this year though.
 
That was also supposed to be the story for the last 2 monuments, especially in Ronde with the headwind we heard about all week. But chasing groups involving superior TTer(s) continued to lose time to the solo rider in front. At any rate, I think Pog and Remco are close enough in TT ability (but Remco significantly stronger) that whoever comes over the top first would be able to keep it together if the gap is 10+ seconds. I am expecting Remco to be in better form and take the win this year though.
Sorry but no. There is a big difference between fresh TT ability, and rouleur ability after 250k of racing. I've already used the same example between Van der Poel's solo wins and those of Evenepoel, but the same goes for Pogacar (but less extreme than Van der Poel). Pogacar went solo 18k to the finish, basically on the last big climb. His timegap at the finish to Van der Poel? 17 seconds. Except for the initial acceleration, not that much was added on the flat towards the line. When Evenepoel went solo in Liège, he had 18 seconds to a chasing group (which used to be the peloton) on the top of the final climb. In the next 13km of flat he expanded his gap to 48s, while even starting celebrations 3k from the finish. You could argue that unlike Van der Poel in Ronde, the chasers were looking at each other, except that Vlasov (who had not worked in the chase before RaF because Bahrein were still there) also got a gap, but was taken back by these same chasers right before the line. If they were truly not organized or committed, he as well would have been able to stay clear. So at the least, they had the speed to keep another solo rider in check.
At the WCC, Evenepoel expanded his lead over a group of chasers who were 100% committed to racing for a medal, steadily to 2 minutes. This group was caught by the peloton in the final kms, while Evenepoel did not lose one second of his lead to the peloton.

Pogacar seems to have a (much) easier time getting a gap and seems to be able to expend it slightly initially and then hold it. His gap in Strade last year, i remembered it as an insane solo where he obliterated the field... 38 seconds to Valverde. Fresh TT ability has little to do with it. Show me the 250+k races that Ganna or Tony Martin dominated, they don't exist.
 
Sorry but no. There is a big difference between fresh TT ability, and rouleur ability after 250k of racing. I've already used the same example between Van der Poel's solo wins and those of Evenepoel, but the same goes for Pogacar (but less extreme than Van der Poel). Pogacar went solo 18k to the finish, basically on the last big climb. His timegap at the finish to Van der Poel? 17 seconds. Except for the initial acceleration, not that much was added on the flat towards the line. When Evenepoel went solo in Liège, he had 18 seconds to a chasing group (which used to be the peloton) on the top of the final climb. In the next 13km of flat he expanded his gap to 48s, while even starting celebrations 3k from the finish. You could argue that unlike Van der Poel in Ronde, the chasers were looking at each other, except that Vlasov (who had not worked in the chase before RaF because Bahrein were still there) also got a gap, but was taken back by these same chasers right before the line. If they were truly not organized or committed, he as well would have been able to stay clear. So at the least, they had the speed to keep another solo rider in check.
At the WCC, Evenepoel expanded his lead over a group of chasers who were 100% committed to racing for a medal, steadily to 2 minutes. This group was caught by the peloton in the final kms, while Evenepoel did not lose one second of his lead to the peloton.

Pogacar seems to have a (much) easier time getting a gap and seems to be able to expend it slightly initially and then hold it. His gap in Strade last year, i remembered it as an insane solo where he obliterated the field... 38 seconds to Valverde. Fresh TT ability has little to do with it. Show me the 250+k races that Ganna or Tony Martin dominated, they don't exist.
Comparing races is abstract at best. There is a point where the "chasers" recognize they are racing for lesser places and are motivated to use as little effort as possible to pursue. MvP didn't have the luxury of getting off the gas.
They are different races, days and definitely different "chasers".....a group vs. solo, killer finisher.
 
Sorry but no. There is a big difference between fresh TT ability, and rouleur ability after 250k of racing. I've already used the same example between Van der Poel's solo wins and those of Evenepoel, but the same goes for Pogacar (but less extreme than Van der Poel). Pogacar went solo 18k to the finish, basically on the last big climb. His timegap at the finish to Van der Poel? 17 seconds. Except for the initial acceleration, not that much was added on the flat towards the line. When Evenepoel went solo in Liège, he had 18 seconds to a chasing group (which used to be the peloton) on the top of the final climb. In the next 13km of flat he expanded his gap to 48s, while even starting celebrations 3k from the finish. You could argue that unlike Van der Poel in Ronde, the chasers were looking at each other, except that Vlasov (who had not worked in the chase before RaF because Bahrein were still there) also got a gap, but was taken back by these same chasers right before the line. If they were truly not organized or committed, he as well would have been able to stay clear. So at the least, they had the speed to keep another solo rider in check.
At the WCC, Evenepoel expanded his lead over a group of chasers who were 100% committed to racing for a medal, steadily to 2 minutes. This group was caught by the peloton in the final kms, while Evenepoel did not lose one second of his lead to the peloton.

Pogacar seems to have a (much) easier time getting a gap and seems to be able to expend it slightly initially and then hold it. His gap in Strade last year, i remembered it as an insane solo where he obliterated the field... 38 seconds to Valverde. Fresh TT ability has little to do with it. Show me the 250+k races that Ganna or Tony Martin dominated, they don't exist.
Pretty sure I’m agreeing with you on most of this. I just don’t think it’s automatically a given that he gets back on the final run in if he gets dropped.
 
Sorry but no. There is a big difference between fresh TT ability, and rouleur ability after 250k of racing. I've already used the same example between Van der Poel's solo wins and those of Evenepoel, but the same goes for Pogacar (but less extreme than Van der Poel). Pogacar went solo 18k to the finish, basically on the last big climb. His timegap at the finish to Van der Poel? 17 seconds. Except for the initial acceleration, not that much was added on the flat towards the line.

Not quite. Pogacar almost doubled his lead of about 14 seconds at the top of the Paterberg, i.e. it went up to 28 seconds at one point heading into the finish on the flat. He ITT'd away from Van der Poel pretty convincingly & only lost time at the end because he sat up & celebrated.

After 270km in Flanders it was amazingballs & not one rider (not even someone like Evenepoel) can be compared to this performance until he does the same in the same race.
 
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Not quite. Pogacar almost doubled his lead of about 14 seconds at the top of the Paterberg, i.e. it went up to 28 seconds at one point heading into the finish on the flat. He ITT'd away from Van der Poel pretty convincingly & only lost time at the end because he sat up & celebrated.

After 270km in Flanders it was amazingballs & not one rider (not even someone like Evenepoel) can be compared to this performance until he does the same in the same race.
Or for that matter, until Pog does the same in Liege. You see, every race has it's own story. No need to make comparisons. At any rate, Flanders with the distance, the crashes, the cobbles, is a classic war of attrition, thus he who is the strongest or boldest, without compromising incident, comes out on top. At Liege the climbs are longer, so it favors the climbing specialists who have huge watt capacity. In this sense it should be an epic battle between them, if all goes well.
 
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Not quite. Pogacar almost doubled his lead of about 14 seconds at the top of the Paterberg, i.e. it went up to 28 seconds at one point heading into the finish on the flat. He ITT'd away from Van der Poel pretty convincingly & only lost time at the end because he sat up & celebrated.

After 270km in Flanders it was amazingballs & not one rider (not even someone like Evenepoel) can be compared to this performance until he does the same in the same race.
I would say i think you are joking but i'm afraid you are not. We were talking about the ability to run away (or close a gap) in the final of a race on mostly flat terrain. And you take Pog's win with 17s and want to tell me it's more amazeballs than Evenepoel in Liège, winning with 48s and celebrating 3k from the line. Or Evenepoel at the WCC, winning with 2 minutes. Believe what you will.
Comparing races is abstract at best. There is a point where the "chasers" recognize they are racing for lesser places and are motivated to use as little effort as possible to pursue. MvP didn't have the luxury of getting off the gas.
They are different races, days and definitely different "chasers".....a group vs. solo, killer finisher.
And i covered all of that in my post. Or do you think Lutsenko wasn't riding for a silver medal? Or do you think Vlasov really didn't want to become 2nd in Liège after attacking from the chasing group? Or that Honoré or Skjelmose didn't care about a silver or bronze medal? Maybe the Ineos duo in San Sebastian also weren't working together and didn't really want to close the gap.
Pretty sure I’m agreeing with you on most of this. I just don’t think it’s automatically a given that he gets back on the final run in if he gets dropped.
Not saying it's a given. All i'm saying in this hypothetical scenario where Evenepoel and Pogacar are both in top shape, going into the final of RVV, that Pogacar dropping Evenepoel on Oude Kwaremont seems more like the natural order of things, given both their skills and abilities. And Evenepoel being at an advantage on the flat that comes after and closing a gap (if it existed) would likewise also be the natural order of things. Evenepoel getting dropped imho by no means would mean he is gassed or spent, he is simply not as good in 5 minute efforts as Pogacar. He is however a better rouleur. Neither means that Pogacar would with a 100% certainty drop Evenepoel, or that Evenepoel would close a 10+ second gap. But i do think both cases are more likely than the other way around. And in such a scenario, i'm doubtful 10s would suffice. On the other hand i could also see Pogacar take more than 10s to begin with.
 
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After the worlds it seemed Remco was untouchable - particularly after the comments from Valverde. But how soon views can change. I think we are spoiled and have two phenoms at once. As of today, Pogi is the best rider in the world.

But the anticipation of a Pogi vs Remco Grand Tour showdown is palpable. I assume 2024 TdF we finally get to see. In meantime, we can enjoy the developing rivalry in lesser races. If Remco could pull off something similar as Pogi did in Flanders that would really be something. After Remco's incredible ride in the worlds, I would not rule him out.

Personally, based upon what we know, I would rank Pogi superior for grand tours but for one day races I think the jury is out.
 
After the worlds it seemed Remco was untouchable - particularly after the comments from Valverde. But how soon views can change. I think we are spoiled and have two phenoms at once. As of today, Pogi is the best rider in the world.

But the anticipation of a Pogi vs Remco Grand Tour showdown is palpable. I assume 2024 TdF we finally get to see. In meantime, we can enjoy the developing rivalry in lesser races. If Remco could pull off something similar as Pogi did in Flanders that would really be something. After Remco's incredible ride in the worlds, I would not rule him out.

Personally, based upon what we know, I would rank Pogi superior for grand tours but for one day races I think the jury is out.
If you are talking about grand tours and the tour france, we always have to put in the conversation Vingegaard. He is the reigning tour france champion. And what about roglic? It's not just about vingegaard vs pogacar in the grand tours.
 
If you are talking about the tour france, we always have to put in the conversation Vingegaard. He is the reigning tour france champion. And what about roglic? It's not just about vingegaard vs pogacar in the grand tours.
I'm talking about Pog vs Remco.

For the TdF it depends upon the parcours. On this years course and if Pogi stays at this level, he comfortably has Vingegaard's measure. I still say Pog played into JV and Vingegaard's hands on Granon. I can't see that happening again.

As for Roglic, Pog should ignore him and simply worry about Vingegaard. If Roglic makes time it drives a wedge between Jumbo's two leaders.
 
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