Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Logic-is-your-friend]

So given how he cracked from being too heavy in the Vuelta, he wouldn't have been able to contend for the title in the Giro as he was also too heavy there (in hindsight)?

I believe he cracked in the Vuelta because they got his nutrition wrong, trying to loose weight too fast or during the Vuelta. All signs point to that imho. They sent him to the Giro with a weight they considered ideal for that race, so they didn't need to start messing around with his diet. So he would not have experienced in the Giro, the bonk he experienced in the Vuelta.

However, that does not mean i think he would have sailed through the mountainstages. Imho, it would have been a struggle for him due to his weight. But i do believe he might still have won the Giro, for two reasons. First of all, without covid the outcome of his two last stages would have been more favorable. He probably wouldn't have lost time the stage before the TT and he would have gained extra time in the TT. And two, Van Wilder lost roughly about 5 minutes since he started riding for GC and after his time gained with the long break. He is the same size and weight as Evenepoel, similar bodytype. So while i think he would have bled seconds in the last week here and there, it might have been enough with a nice buffer. I also think he would have gained time in the last TT.

But overall, i think the two GT's where they got his weight in the ballpark, were Giro '21 and Vuelta '22. They supposedly poached one of the Visma nutritionist for this year. So i'm crossing all my fingers and toes.

 

[Netserk]

Different type of racing, against different type of opponents. Or did you feel Roglic was as strong in the Giro as in the Vuelta?

Not after his crash, no.

 

[Extinction]

I'm of the opinion that the right climbing weight is crucial. It's pointless to gain 45 secs in the TT, if you lose mins in the high mountains. Hence, for one who TTs as well as him, even if a lighter weight means gaining less time against rivals in the TT, you plan to be stronger and more efficient on the cols.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

We have already seen in the Vuelta he won that he can handle any kind of mountain stage, haven't we?

Yes, but no. There wasn't any real mountain stage with several big mountains. Most of them were unipuertos or stages with soft climbs before the final climb. And the one to Sierra Nevada where it was one looong climb he lost time (but that was just after his crash and he rode tactically in a way that made it hard to keep up the Roglstomp in the last km even if it was a good tactic to preserve his race lead).

He did win a big multi mountain stage in the Vuelta last year against Bardet, but I believe it's a big difference in the way to spend energy between going in the early break and ride with the favorite group and would like to see him compete with the best on such a stage. Hopefully we'll see some answers in the Tour (stages to Pla d'Adet, Plateau de Beille, Isola & Col de la Coullile should give more insight).

 

[topcat]

I love this thread. I usually just sit back and enjoy. People have lost their minds and I don't have to live with them.

 

[Extinction]

I love this thread. I usually just sit back and enjoy. People have lost their minds and I don't have to live with them.

Are you not entertained!

 

[Elos Anjos]

Maybe Remco is the new Eddy Merckx or maybe he can rival Pogacar across diferent fields but although he is definitely super-talented, if he needs such fine-tuned circumstances (weight, food, weather, Mrs. Evenpoel mood swings, et al) in order to deliver maybe people are ignoring the writing on the wall.

Concurrently, finding arguments for why Remco didn't perform here and there warrants the thread longevity for the next decade.

 

[Extinction]

Maybe Remco is the new Eddy Merckx or maybe he can rival Pogacar across diferent fields but although he is definitely super-talented, if he needs such fine-tuned circumstances (weight, food, weather, Mrs. Evenpoel mood swings, et al) in order to deliver maybe people are ignoring the writing on the eedwall.

Concurrently, finding arguments for why Remco didn't perform here and there warrants the thread longevity for the next decade.

Well, it used to be that building up to goals was the norm and, yet, the only two races he has gone in for thus far in February he has arrived 1st and 2nd. Compare this to an Armstrong, an Ullrich, a Pantani, an Indurain, a Lemond, Fignon, Hinault.

 

[LookProGoSlow]

I love this thread. I usually just sit back and enjoy. People have lost their minds and I don't have to live with them.

🍿

 

[Froome]

I love this thread. I usually just sit back and enjoy. People have lost their minds and I don't have to live with them.

This thread and roglic's thread will be even more better and fun during and after Paris Nice.

 

[LookProGoSlow]

I believe he cracked in the Vuelta because they got his nutrition wrong, trying to loose weight too fast or during the Vuelta. All signs point to that imho. They sent him to the Giro with a weight they considered ideal for that race, so they didn't need to start messing around with his diet. So he would not have experienced in the Giro, the bonk he experienced in the Vuelta.

However, that does not mean i think he would have sailed through the mountainstages. Imho, it would have been a struggle for him due to his weight. But i do believe he might still have won the Giro, for two reasons. First of all, without covid the outcome of his two last stages would have been more favorable. He probably wouldn't have lost time the stage before the TT and he would have gained extra time in the TT. And two, Van Wilder lost roughly about 5 minutes since he started riding for GC and after his time gained with the long break. He is the same size and weight as Evenepoel, similar bodytype. So while i think he would have bled seconds in the last week here and there, it might have been enough with a nice buffer. I also think he would have gained time in the last TT.

But overall, i think the two GT's where they got his weight in the ballpark, were Giro '21 and Vuelta '22. They supposedly poached one of the Visma nutritionist for this year. So i'm crossing all my fingers and toes.

He would not have gained time in the last TT at all. He would’ve lost significant time there on the last climb

 

[houtdffan]

Still the same Evenepoel, by the looks of it. If he doesn't perform on Malhao - let's say a win or a VERY close 2nd place, I'd say a good TdF GC result is out of the question, UNLESS his mid-February form is worse than usual.

It's not only about who's the better medium mountain puncheur, Dani or Remco. No, the pace was high enough to the point that a generational GC talent with an uphill sprint should have dusted the subpar competition. The run-in to the final climb was hard.

Needless to say, this type of finish is not ideal for Kuss, who came in third.

Remco literally set the record time up the climb.

He said he started the sprint a touch too early, wanting to surprise the competition.

This race is coming down to the TT

 

[houtdffan]

He would not have gained time in the last TT at all. He would’ve lost significant time there on the last climb

the way he was TTing in the giro, a healthy Remco gains ~30 seconds on the flat first part of the TT

 

[Berniece]

Remco literally set the record time up the climb.

He said he started the sprint a touch too early, wanting to surprise the competition.

This race is coming down to the TT

He expected him to win by 1 minute probably

 

[Froome]

Still the same Evenepoel, by the looks of it. If he doesn't perform on Malhao - let's say a win or a VERY close 2nd place, I'd say a good TdF GC result is out of the question, UNLESS his mid-February form is worse than usual.

It's not only about who's the better medium mountain puncheur, Dani or Remco. No, the pace was high enough to the point that a generational GC talent with an uphill sprint should have dusted the subpar competition. The run-in to the final climb was hard.

Needless to say, this type of finish is not ideal for Kuss, who came in third.

Are you telling that Daniel Martinez is going to win the Tour?

 

[frisenfruitig]

Yes, but no. There wasn't any real mountain stage with several big mountains. Most of them were unipuertos or stages with soft climbs before the final climb. And the one to Sierra Nevada where it was one looong climb he lost time (but that was just after his crash and he rode tactically in a way that made it hard to keep up the Roglstomp in the last km even if it was a good tactic to preserve his race lead).

He did win a big multi mountain stage in the Vuelta last year against Bardet, but I believe it's a big difference in the way to spend energy between going in the early break and ride with the favorite group and would like to see him compete with the best on such a stage. Hopefully we'll see some answers in the Tour (stages to Pla d'Adet, Plateau de Beille, Isola & Col de la Coullile should give more insight).

Feels like splitting hairs to me tbh. Whether it's one climb or 3 climbs, if he's having a good day then he won't be dropped by the likes of Mas, Thomas, Roglic etc.

In the TDF it doesn't matter either to Vingegaard or Pogacar whether it's one climb or 3, everyone else gets dropped like a brick regardless.

 

[Netserk]

Feels like splitting hairs to me tbh. Whether it's one climb or 3 climbs, if he's having a good day then he won't be dropped by the likes of Mas, Thomas, Roglic etc.

In the TDF it doesn't matter either to Vingegaard or Pogacar whether it's one climb or 3, everyone else gets dropped like a brick regardless.

Richie Porte has won numerous mountain stages, but somehow it does in fact matter whether or not there are several harder climbs. He has won Dauphiné, Suisse, P-N, Catalunya, Romandie, but never a GT stage.

 

[proffate]

Richie Porte has won numerous mountain stages, but somehow it does in fact matter whether or not there are several harder climbs. He has won Dauphiné, Suisse, P-N, Catalunya, Romandie, but never a GT stage.

Not a great example. He was not a prolific stage winner on any kind of stage. However his stage wins were at times on hard stages. And there are plenty of unipuerto GT stages he failed to win, so number of climbs doesn't appear to be the deciding factor for him.

I agree with frisen that there are more open questions about Remco's ability/consistency over 3 weeks rather than in a single hard stage.

 

[Berniece]

Richie Porte has won numerous mountain stages, but somehow it does in fact matter whether or not there are several harder climbs. He has won Dauphiné, Suisse, P-N, Catalunya, Romandie, but never a GT stage.

Richie Porte did finish on the podium of the TDF though, which Remco is dreaming of

 

[Netserk]

Not a great example. He was not a prolific stage winner on any kind of stage. However his stage wins were at times on hard stages. And there are plenty of unipuerto GT stages he failed to win, so number of climbs doesn't appear to be the deciding factor for him.

I agree with frisen that there are more open questions about Remco's ability/consistency over 3 weeks rather than in a single hard stage.

He has won 16 uphill finishes. His best GT performances has been on early mountain stages with little elevation in the stage.

 

[proffate]

He has won 16 uphill finishes. His best GT performances has been on early mountain stages with little elevation in the stage.

you're failing to distinguish between duration of stage race and duration of stage

how many GTs have a queen stage in the first week?

 

[Netserk]

He was better on Peyrol, Grand Colombier and the PdBF TT in the Tour he podiumed than he was in the Pyrenees, but both factors are generally in play and they are caused by the same.

In Dauphiné 2016 he was far better on Vaujany than the following stage that went over Madeleine.

 

[red_flanders]

Richie Porte did finish on the podium of the TDF though, which Remco is dreaming of

Sort of an aside, but worth noting Porte was 35 when he podiumed.

Remco just turned 24.

 

[Berniece]

Sort of an aside, but worth noting Porte was 35 when he podiumed.

Remco just turned 24.

So eleven more years to try

 

[red_flanders]

So eleven more years to try

Well I'd be surprised if he goes that long. But his palmares are incredible for a 24-year-old.