Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Oldermanish]

The Roglic on Bora at PN seems like there were problems, but then he won the TT at Itzulia before the big crash. He has had the least compromising prep for the Dauphine-Tour sequence. If he doesn't win the Dauphine then age is creeping up on him.

PN is history and little could be transferrable to the Dauphine except Matteo Jorgensen's strengths as real. He won't be able to sneak away on any efforts that will get much time. Everyone else should be riding near their best as the Tour is up next. Having said that it's not inconceivable that someone like Roglic actually would ride for a teammate but also make a statement ride or two for confidence. He's won this before and now seems to have his entire season set on a Tour. Bora does need a team defining race to bolster that Tour confidence.
If they do race for two leaders Remco and others will be the beneficiaries, IMO. They'd need to sort that out early if it were a true strategy.

 

[shadowrider]

He was virtually winning UAE Tour 1km from the finish in the final stage. He was still in the mix for the win on the final MTF in Romandie and actually finished ahead of Ayuso, who was seen by most as the one guy he would not be able to beat for the win. In Algarve he was 15s behind the winner, in Romandie he was 21s behind the winner (and had it not rained during the TT, he would have been on the podium), in Poland 22s, in UAE also 21s, in Burgos 42s (which came after him being ill a two weeks before).

Those 20 year olds that you are talking about, are doing exactly what he wants to avoid doing in order to have a long healthy career. Being on a super strict diet, and training like they need to win the TDF. It is in fact quite likely that he will have more margin to improve still than a good few of these younger riders.

But Ayuso has won several TT's, smaller stage competitions and has already made an impression in GT's, even as a domestique. That's the difference. You can't attribute that to almost winning or setbacks. So, again, Van Wilders is slightly less than some opponents (of his age), less regular and he also has less grinta (although in principle he is quite fast at the uphill finish). Once Van Wilders starts to win (as a late twenties ?), you may come back to discuss.
I agree that several promising riders of 19, 20, 21 will not succeed. But some will and will surpass him. Nothing to be ashamed of. I don't understand why you don't want to see that.

 

[Cookster15]

Talking about Bora, i would bet more on Hindley than Vlasov. Hindley is one of the best climbers in the world when he is good shape.

I think the Time Trial will be important, and if Remco is in good shape, he can go to the final 3 stages with a good gap.

It would be nice to see a return of 2022 Giro Hindley.

But I also agree about Remco. I'll be very happy for Remco if he can deliver against these big names. It would finally shut up the doubters.

 

[Froome]

He seems defeated even before the Tour. He said it would be a huge win if he can follow Pogi just one day. What kind of mentality is this? Is he already thinking on the podium?

Mind games.

 

[Berniece]

He seems defeated even before the Tour. He said it would be a huge win if he can follow Pogi just one day. What kind of mentality is this? Is he already thinking on the podium?

He always said he was going for the podium

 

[kingjr]

He seems defeated even before the Tour. He said it would be a huge win if he can follow Pogi just one day. What kind of mentality is this? Is he already thinking on the podium?

I think it's simply in line with what most followers of the sport believe.

 

[johnymax]

I think it's pretty clear what's happening here. Remco is looking for every possible excuse to once again aim at the greatest race of them all. The classicissima of a city of north of Spain called San Sebastian.

 

[Extinction]

PN is history and little could be transferrable to the Dauphine except Matteo Jorgensen's strengths as real. He won't be able to sneak away on any efforts that will get much time. Everyone else should be riding near their best as the Tour is up next. Having said that it's not inconceivable that someone like Roglic actually would ride for a teammate but also make a statement ride or two for confidence. He's won this before and now seems to have his entire season set on a Tour. Bora does need a team defining race to bolster that Tour confidence.
If they do race for two leaders Remco and others will be the beneficiaries, IMO. They'd need to sort that out early if it were a true strategy.

Bora's only hope for the Tour is Roglic. They have no other viable alternative.

 

[Extinction]

View: https://youtu.be/RblV6BEOA98?si=xaOQ6Z7_vikGPg9C


According to this interview, Remco is not riding for GC at the Dauphine. Well, if this is actually the case, then the Tour is gonna be very hard for him.

He also says Pogacar is the best rider in the world and that he wouldn't be suprised if he wins the Tour after the Giro.

 

[peterfin]

It looks like he is mainly looking for confidence during the Dauphine. Confidence in seeing his shape improve, handling race situations, going downhill without fear and doing a good TT in a position he is used to. I assume it's all part of a plan to get him physically and mentally in top shape for the TdF. The only thing that concerns me a bit is the mental part. The high speed crash probably left an emotional scar that may be the most difficult one to handle.

 

[shadowrider]

He seems defeated even before the Tour. He said it would be a huge win if he can follow Pogi just one day. What kind of mentality is this? Is he already thinking on the podium?

Well, (try to) follow one day Poga, is one day more then what we have seen doing the opponents in the Giro, small stage races, the Strade, Liège etc. So, if Evenepoel could perform that way, it would be great. The other opponents didn't even try. Only Martinez give it a try.

 

[Extinction]

Well, (try to) follow one day Poga, is one day more then what we have seen doing the opponents in the Giro, small stage races, the Strade, Liège etc. So, if Evenepoel could perform that way, it would be great. The other opponents didn't even try. Only Martinez give it a try.

The others didn't try, because if the did they knew they would blow up and get burned.

 

[Extinction]

He seems defeated even before the Tour. He said it would be a huge win if he can follow Pogi just one day. What kind of mentality is this? Is he already thinking on the podium?

Yea, his apparent attitude seems defeatist, however, it could also be just to downplay his form to be under the radar so to speak. His numbers must indicate if he has the climbing ability to challenge for the Tour, otherwise it's useless having such an ambition and building one's career around such a goal. The Dauphine should provide a clearer picture of what sort of climber he can hope to be at the Tour. Yet it's the same for Roglic and the other contenders, for whom winning the Tour means being faster than Pogacar and, of course, Vingegaard in top form.

 

[shadowrider]

View: https://youtu.be/RblV6BEOA98?si=xaOQ6Z7_vikGPg9C


According to this interview, Remco is not riding for GC at the Dauphine. Well, if this is actually the case, then the Tour is gonna be very hard for him.

He also says Pogacar is the best rider in the world and that he wouldn't be suprised if he wins the Tour after the Giro.

Riding the GC in the Dauphiné when not being in shape would be very stupid. For every rider in that situation. That's the best way to fail in the Tour.

He has to work for his team, especially for Van Wilders (maybe Landa). Not forcing during the finals. Try to choose one day to go in a break and to go a little deeper. So, become stronger at the end of the Dauphiné, without dipping into reserves. The ultimate work has to be done during the second short altitude training. To start the Tour at 99 % and improving the second half. The inverse of what he did before and during the (first days of) Giro 21.

 

[shadowrider]

The others didn't try, because if the did they knew they would blow up and get burned.

Exactly. That's why Evenepoel (and Roglic, Vingegaard at 99 % etc) don't have to try it (the first week). If Poga is fading the last week of the Tour, they will (be able to) follow Poga or even drop him.

 

[Extinction]

Riding the GC in the Dauphiné when not being in shape would be very stupid. For every rider in that situation. That's the best way to fail in the Tour.

He has to work for his team, especially for Van Wilders (maybe Landa). Not forcing during the finals. Try to choose one day to go in a break and to go a little deeper. So, become stronger at the end of the Dauphiné, without dipping into reserves. The ultimate work has to be done during the second short altitude training. To start the Tour at 99 % and improving the second half. The inverse of what he did before and during the (first days of) Giro 21.

I theory I agree with this, however, to start the Tour at 99% you have to be almost there at the Dauphine. Time is running out. It's the same for all Tour conteders, for which the Dauphine is the great trial run to hit your numbers without burying yourself to be able to reach your highest level during the Tour and hold it until Paris. Even Vingegaard, who enphatically won the Dauphine last year, was clearly building towards a higher peak in July. So I believe Evenepoel still needs to show promising form now, if he hopes to reach his best level during the Tour. By contrast, if he is getting dropped big time this week then I fear the Tour will be very hard and disappointing for him. Now I can't believe he and his team could possibly think his form is that off now to only be doing domestique duties in the Dauphine and still hold illusions of a good Tour GC. They must feel he is already at a very good level, but don't want to let it be known, which is smart. But I've seen stranger things with this team.

 

[Karl Merckx]

I theory I agree with this, however, to start the Tour at 99% you have to be almost there at the Dauphine. Time is running out. It's the same for all Tour conteders, for which the Dauphine is the great trial run to hit your numbers without burying yourself to be able to reach your highest level during the Tour and hold it until Paris. Even Vingegaard, who enphatically won the Dauphine last year, was clearly building towards a higher peak in July. So I believe Evenepoel still needs to show promising form now, if he hopes to reach his best level during the Tour. By contrast, if he is getting dropped big time this week then I fear the Tour will be very hard and disappointing for him. Now I can't believe he and his team could possibly think his form is that off now to only be doing domestique duties in the Dauphine and still hold illusions of a good Tour GC. They must feel he is already at a very good level, but don't want to let it be known, which is smart. But I've seen stranger things with this team.

The important thing is that he says that he's using the Dauphiné as training, which means that he's not going to go over his limit to try to obtain a good GC position. So it could be that he's going to lose time in one of the mountain stages because fighting for it is not optimal in order to improve his shape.

 

[Extinction]

The important thing is that he says that he's using the Dauphiné as training, which means that he's not going to go over his limit to try to obtain a good GC position. So it could be that he's going to lose time in one of the mountain stages because fighting for it is not optimal in order to improve his shape.

I don't think he should purposefully lose time on a stage. He should rather push himself following the wheels and strike at the finish line. Unless he feels so good he has the luxury to attack and push, while staying within himself. This is how you use the Dauphine to fine tune your engine. Whereas if you are struggling from the get-go, there is no way to be in top form at the Tour, so sitting up is a moot point.

 

[shadowrider]

I theory I agree with this, however, to start the Tour at 99% you have to be almost there at the Dauphine. Time is running out. It's the same for all Tour conteders, for which the Dauphine is the great trial run to hit your numbers without burying yourself to be able to reach your highest level during the Tour and hold it until Paris. Even Vingegaard, who enphatically won the Dauphine last year, was clearly building towards a higher peak in July. So I believe Evenepoel still needs to show promising form now, if he hopes to reach his best level during the Tour. By contrast, if he is getting dropped big time this week then I fear the Tour will be very hard and disappointing for him. Now I can't believe he and his team could possibly think his form is that off now to only be doing domestique duties in the Dauphine and still hold illusions of a good Tour GC. They must feel he is already at a very good level, but don't want to let it be known, which is smart. But I've seen stranger things with this team.

The Dauphiné is far too early (in function) of the Tour. Going full gas or being in topshape there is often at the expense of the Tour. Unless unauthorized things happen. But your argument could be correct referring to the Tour of Suisse.
It's also correct that if Evenepoel is underperforming, he will fall short even in three to four weeks. But I don't expect that. In the Dauphiné, helping the teammates uphill in the (high) mountains, being deliberaly dropped in the last 5 km of the finishclimb doesn't mean underperforming. Anyway, I expect Evenepoel only at 99 % at the start of the Tour. Not ideal, but not hopeless regarding the very hard closing week. In addition, Vingegaard (at 98, 99 %) and Roglic (almost 35) will also not be at their best at the start of the Tour. Pogacar will probably fade a bit during the last week So, unless you have a crystal ball, it's impossible to tell who will come out on top after three weeks.

 

[Extinction]

The Dauphiné is far too early (in function) of the Tour. Going full gas or being in topshape there is often at the expense of the Tour. Unless unauthorized things happen. But your argument could be correct referring to the Tour of Suisse.
It's also correct that if Evenepoel is underperforming, he will fall short even in three to four weeks. But I don't expect that. In the Dauphiné, helping the teammates uphill in the (high) mountains, being deliberaly dropped in the last 5 km of the finishclimb doesn't mean underperforming. Anyway, I expect Evenepoel only at 99 % at the start of the Tour. Not ideal, but not hopeless regarding the very hard closing week. In addition, Vingegaard (at 98, 99 %) and Roglic (almost 35) will also not be at their best at the start of the Tour. Pogacar will probably fade a bit during the last week So, unless you have a crystal ball, it's impossible to tell who will come out on top after three weeks.

But it's the same for all Dauphine contestants. They are all looking to peak at the Tour, so it's relative. My point is that if Remco's far off pace in the Dauphine, then he can't possibly hope to bridge the gap in the 3 weeks that lie before the Tour. Let's say, and this goes for all Bigs, he needs to be at 95-96% now, which should be good enough for a result in the top 5 at the Dauphine that isn't overly taxing and, to the contrary, builds form. Remco at let's say 95% in fifth place might be good enough, but so would third-second place at 96-97%. Anything less and the Tour is a pipe dream.

 

[shadowrider]

But it's the same for all Dauphine contestants. They are all looking to peak at the Tour, so it's relative. My point is that if Remco's far off pace in the Dauphine, then he can't possibly hope to bridge the gap in the 3 weeks that lie before the Tour. Let's say, and this goes for all Bigs, he needs to be at 95-96% now, which should be good enough for a result in the top 5 at the Dauphine that isn't overly taxing and, to the contrary, builds form. Remco at let's say 95% in fifth place might be good enough, but so would third-second place at 96-97%. Anything less and the Tour is a pipe dream.

Being at 95/96 % at the start of the Dauphiné means ending every mountainstage with the sprinters. He has to be at 97 % at least here to reach the 99 % in three weeks.

 

[Extinction]

Being at 95/96 % at the start of the Dauphiné means ending every mountainstage with the sprinters. He has to be at 97 % at least here to reach the 99 % in three weeks.

Alright, I was just imagining percentages. So let's say 97%. If Remco at 97% isn't a viable candidate to win the Dauphine, then he's not a Tour challenger now or in the future

 

[shadowrider]

Alright, I was just imagining percentages. So let's say 97%. If Remco at 97% isn't a viable candidate to win the Dauphine, then he's not a Tour challenger now or in the future

You can't win the Dauphiné at 97 % against Roglic, Ayuso etc at 99 %. No one can.

 

[Extinction]

You can't win the Dauphiné at 97 % against Roglic, Ayuso etc at 99 %. No one can.

Well, that depends on your ceiling. If Remco can't beat Rog and Ayuso in the Dauphine at 97%, then he has no hope against Pogacar and, above all, a healthy Vingegaard at the Tour.

 

[peterfin]

If the intention is to use the Dauphine as a training block, how can we conclude anything from his GC result? How can we actually compare his results with the others? We can only do so if all of them go all in for the victory.