Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

Pro wins count so far: Evenpoel 0 - 1 Ghirmay

I'd still take Evenepoel's palmares over Girmay's...

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Sure and I’d rather have Evenepoel’s pro contract too. I’m just entertained that an even younger guy who actually beat Remco once in his near invincible season has made such a spectacular entry to grown up racing while we are all waiting on Evenepoel.

 

[DNP-Old]

Re: Re:

Pro wins count so far: Evenpoel 0 - 1 Ghirmay

I'd still take Evenepoel's palmares over Girmay's...

They’re getting desperate.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

Pro wins count so far: Evenpoel 0 - 1 Ghirmay

I'd still take Evenepoel's palmares over Girmay's...

They’re getting desperate.

What?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Re:

Sure and I’d rather have Evenpoel’s pro contract too. I’m just entertained that an even younger guy who actually beat Remco once in his near invincible season has made such a spectacular entry to grown up racing while we are all waiting on Evenpoel.

He's what? Two months and a few days younger? I don't know if that makes that big a difference. Six to twelve months, sure, that could be an advantage. Anyway, good fo Ghermay. He was one of the stronger juniors in Evenepoel's rearview mirror. I didn't know he was that fast in the sprint though. On the other hand, with restricted gears, it's harder to tell who is good in a sprint.

 

[memyselfandI]

From last 10 editions of Course de la Paix GC, 10 best. 100 juniors. Have produced 4 top level pro cyclists. None Eddy Merckx level just yet; Van den Poel, Stuyven, Van Poppel, Cort Nielsen. Top talents from those include Oskar Svendsen, Adrien Costa, Pierre-Henri Lecuisinier..Where are they now?

Then again GC from 10 onwards shows more familiar names, Adam and Simon Yates (your typical GC complet = madison & points race world champ...), Tiesj Benoot, Florian Senechal, Valerio Conti, Michael Valgren, Dylan Teuns..

Long way to go.

Get out of here with your common sense

Not gonna be easy for a long time. Most of all he does not look at all like GT GC complet. GT routes seem to favor clear grimpeurs or longer skinny well cooling climber-tt'ers. He is not Enrique Mas or Simon Yates type at all. More like Alaphilippe or Vallgren. He reminds me Jukka Vastaranta from Finland who took junior xco euro gold and worlds silver and prolly nations cup overall too same year racing against Thoma Dekker aso, very explosive junior who escaped for solo win many times nation cup races. Dekker and Vastaranta both had quite harsh ride careerwise. It's a sharkpool; first you try to swim at it and later you try to climb out of it.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

From last 10 editions of Course de la Paix GC, 10 best. 100 juniors. Have produced 4 top level pro cyclists. None Eddy Merckx level just yet; Van den Poel, Stuyven, Van Poppel, Cort Nielsen. Top talents from those include Oskar Svendsen, Adrien Costa, Pierre-Henri Lecuisinier..Where are they now?

Then again GC from 10 onwards shows more familiar names, Adam and Simon Yates (your typical GC complet = madison & points race world champ...), Tiesj Benoot, Florian Senechal, Valerio Conti, Michael Valgren, Dylan Teuns..

Long way to go.

Get out of here with your common sense

Not gonna be easy for a long time. Most of all he does not look at all like GT GC complet. GT routes seem to favor clear grimpeurs or longer skinny well cooling climber-tt'ers. He is not Enrique Mas or Simon Yates type at all. More like Alaphilippe or Vallgren. He reminds me Jukka Vastaranta from Finland who took junior xco euro gold and worlds silver and prolly nations cup overall too same year racing against Thoma Dekker aso, very explosive junior who escaped for solo win many times nation cup races. Dekker and Vastaranta both had quite harsh ride careerwise. It's a sharkpool; first you try to swim at it and later you try to climb out of it.

I'm not seeing those comparisons at all. Alaphilippe? Seriously? Evenepoel is a tempoclimber with an insane engine. He isn't explosive at all. He's helpless in a sprint, his accelerations uphill are not viscious (he's not able to jump away). He's more like a one-man Sky train who sets a pace the rest can't handle. In short uphill finishes, Vacek beat him more than once, but Vacek was nowhere near Evenepoel in those overall classifications (Peacerace, Lunigiana...). If anything, i'd compare Evenepoel with someone like Indurain, with the temper of someone like De Gendt.

It's a fact that his achievements as a junior don't mean he'll be succesful as a pro. But your statistics are meaningless. You take the top 10 from 10 years in the peacerace, and conclude only 4 guys made an impact as a pro. But how many of those 100 riders, won the peacerace, and Patton, and Lunigiana, and double EC, double NC, double WC... and... and... The answer is NONE. Trying to fit him into your statistics is meaningless, because his achievemens defy any logical conclusion based on any statistics you throw at him.

Sure, Benoot, Yates, Valgren... may not have been good as junior, maybe they were behind the curve physically, not fullgrown yet... maybe Evenepoel was ahead of the curve and will lose that advantage when all his junior opponents are fullgrown. But there is only so much that you can explain with these things. There have been riders before, that were ahead of the curve physically, that were born in January. How many of those won a high profile race like the Euro's with a 10 minutes lead on the peloton? Forcing half of the field to be taken out of the race? How many of those won 80% of all races they entered? How many of those rode ITT that would make them win the ITT in the U23 bracket as well (against guys who ARE in fact fullgrown).

 

[memyselfandI]

Still he must more than double everything. Not his weight and vo2max yes I know.. But of course it's interesting to see how it goes.

 

[tobydawq]

From last 10 editions of Course de la Paix GC, 10 best. 100 juniors. Have produced 4 top level pro cyclists. None Eddy Merckx level just yet; Van den Poel, Stuyven, Van Poppel, Cort Nielsen. Top talents from those include Oskar Svendsen, Adrien Costa, Pierre-Henri Lecuisinier..Where are they now?

Then again GC from 10 onwards shows more familiar names, Adam and Simon Yates (your typical GC complet = madison & points race world champ...), Tiesj Benoot, Florian Senechal, Valerio Conti, Michael Valgren, Dylan Teuns..

Long way to go.

Get out of here with your common sense

Not gonna be easy for a long time. Most of all he does not look at all like GT GC complet. GT routes seem to favor clear grimpeurs or longer skinny well cooling climber-tt'ers. He is not Enrique Mas or Simon Yates type at all. More like Alaphilippe or Vallgren. He reminds me Jukka Vastaranta from Finland who took junior xco euro gold and worlds silver and prolly nations cup overall too same year racing against Thoma Dekker aso, very explosive junior who escaped for solo win many times nation cup races. Dekker and Vastaranta both had quite harsh ride careerwise. It's a sharkpool; first you try to swim at it and later you try to climb out of it.

I'm not seeing those comparisons at all. Alaphilippe? Seriously? Evenepoel is a tempoclimber with an insane engine. He isn't explosive at all. He's helpless in a sprint, his accelerations uphill are not viscious (he's not able to jump away). He's more like a one-man Sky train who sets a pace the rest can't handle. In short uphill finishes, Vacek beat him more than once, but Vacek was nowhere near Evenepoel in those overall classifications (Peacerace, Lunigiana...). If anything, i'd compare Evenepoel with someone like Indurain, with the temper of someone like De Gendt.

It's a fact that his achievements as a junior don't mean he'll be succesful as a pro. But your statistics are meaningless. You take the top 10 from 10 years in the peacerace, and conclude only 4 guys made an impact as a pro. But how many of those 100 riders, won the peacerace, and Patton, and Lunigiana, and double EC, double NC, double WC... and... and... The answer is NONE. Trying to fit him into your statistics is meaningless, because his achievemens defy any logical conclusion based on any statistics you throw at him.

Sure, Benoot, Yates, Valgren... may not have been good as junior, maybe they were behind the curve physically, not fullgrown yet... maybe Evenepoel was ahead of the curve and will lose that advantage when all his junior opponents are fullgrown. But there is only so much that you can explain with these things. There have been riders before, that were ahead of the curve physically, that were born in January. How many of those won a high profile race like the Euro's with a 10 minutes lead on the peloton? Forcing half of the field to be taken out of the race? How many of those won 80% of all races they entered? How many of those rode ITT that would make them win the ITT in the U23 bracket as well (against guys who ARE in fact fullgrown).

With such a well-reasoned post (with which I fully agree), I wonder why you so often preach an unnecessary amount of caution when it comes to how Evenepoel will fare in this season.

 

[Jancouver]

Adrien Costa was similar talent...and never won anything in the adult league.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

From last 10 editions of Course de la Paix GC, 10 best. 100 juniors. Have produced 4 top level pro cyclists. None Eddy Merckx level just yet; Van den Poel, Stuyven, Van Poppel, Cort Nielsen. Top talents from those include Oskar Svendsen, Adrien Costa, Pierre-Henri Lecuisinier..Where are they now?

Then again GC from 10 onwards shows more familiar names, Adam and Simon Yates (your typical GC complet = madison & points race world champ...), Tiesj Benoot, Florian Senechal, Valerio Conti, Michael Valgren, Dylan Teuns..

Long way to go.

Get out of here with your common sense

Not gonna be easy for a long time. Most of all he does not look at all like GT GC complet. GT routes seem to favor clear grimpeurs or longer skinny well cooling climber-tt'ers. He is not Enrique Mas or Simon Yates type at all. More like Alaphilippe or Vallgren. He reminds me Jukka Vastaranta from Finland who took junior xco euro gold and worlds silver and prolly nations cup overall too same year racing against Thoma Dekker aso, very explosive junior who escaped for solo win many times nation cup races. Dekker and Vastaranta both had quite harsh ride careerwise. It's a sharkpool; first you try to swim at it and later you try to climb out of it.

I'm not seeing those comparisons at all. Alaphilippe? Seriously? Evenepoel is a tempoclimber with an insane engine. He isn't explosive at all. He's helpless in a sprint, his accelerations uphill are not viscious (he's not able to jump away). He's more like a one-man Sky train who sets a pace the rest can't handle. In short uphill finishes, Vacek beat him more than once, but Vacek was nowhere near Evenepoel in those overall classifications (Peacerace, Lunigiana...). If anything, i'd compare Evenepoel with someone like Indurain, with the temper of someone like De Gendt.

It's a fact that his achievements as a junior don't mean he'll be succesful as a pro. But your statistics are meaningless. You take the top 10 from 10 years in the peacerace, and conclude only 4 guys made an impact as a pro. But how many of those 100 riders, won the peacerace, and Patton, and Lunigiana, and double EC, double NC, double WC... and... and... The answer is NONE. Trying to fit him into your statistics is meaningless, because his achievemens defy any logical conclusion based on any statistics you throw at him.

Sure, Benoot, Yates, Valgren... may not have been good as junior, maybe they were behind the curve physically, not fullgrown yet... maybe Evenepoel was ahead of the curve and will lose that advantage when all his junior opponents are fullgrown. But there is only so much that you can explain with these things. There have been riders before, that were ahead of the curve physically, that were born in January. How many of those won a high profile race like the Euro's with a 10 minutes lead on the peloton? Forcing half of the field to be taken out of the race? How many of those won 80% of all races they entered? How many of those rode ITT that would make them win the ITT in the U23 bracket as well (against guys who ARE in fact fullgrown).

With such a well-reasoned post (with which I fully agree), I wonder why you so often preach an unnecessary amount of caution when it comes to how Evenepoel will fare in this season.

I don't just do that with Evenepoel. I also do that with other riders, like van der Poel. The difference is, when i do it with van der Poel, i'm regarded as a nationalistic ass, who is envious because he's Belgian, lol. (While MVDP is my second favorite CX rider).

The thing with Evenepoel is that there are just a few things that are hard to put your finger on. He's just an outlier, so extreme, that there is in fact noone else to compare him with, than Merckx... And we really don't want to do that. We can't believe that, so... what then? The fact remains that his dominance was just so extreme, that it defies logic. You could say, that he's physically more fullgrown (he's from January). Ok, sure. But that only takes us so far - because last year he rode Le Grand Ballon only a few seconds slower than Lambrecht, who in turn only lost one minute to Bernal in l'Avenir and those guys are 3 years older than Evenepoel. He rides ITTs comparable to those of the best U23 riders, 2-4 years older as well. So you can't say he's got a few months headstart on the other juniors, because he would still have been (among) the best in the U23 bracket, if not the best (just think about the time he lost to Bjerg in the ITT and factoring in the difference in gears, knowing that Bjerg is an ITT specialist and an outlier in his own right).

He's been an outlier when it comes to endurance at his football clubs, since he was a small kid. Usually, this doesn't happen at a constant rate, kids get grow spurts then they stagnate, other kids will catch up, or overtake, and then one kid will again develop faster, and so on. So, being ahead of the curve physically, being from January... only explains a small part of that.

Ok. So he's had a personal trainer for years, a guy that knows him inside out. Since he was playing football. Other junior riders often don't have a personal trainer. Other juniors don't train twice a day, which Evenepoel did as a junior. (His trainer said, that it's not about training twice a day, but being physically ABLE to cope with it twice a day, that if other juniors would have tried, they would burn themselves up, that again, Remco here is an outlier). But you know, maybe some other kids would have been able, but didn't know it of themselves. Maybe there are a few other Remcos in the peloton, who just aren't as fullgrown, who are 11 months younger, who didn't have a personal trainer, who didn't train twice a day, because they did in fact fear they would burn themselves out even though they wouldn't. Guys who didn't go in the attack 90k from the finish because they didn't know they were capable of such exploits (having learned to wait, not to attack too soon, etc... so by the time they'd consider attacking, Evenepoel is long gone).

Because again, taking what we are seeing at face value... it's simply scary. Impossible even. I mean, there has to be something. Either he is a freak of nature, that passes by only once every 50 years, or there has to be another explanation. His age, his growth, having a personal trainer, his training schedule...

In conclusion, assuming he is not a once in a lifetime anomaly, assuming he isn't a new Merckx, a Michael Phelps, a Michael Jordan, or Muhammad Ali... then he can't be thàt much better than the others, can he. Then there has to be another explanation. And if he is indeed not that much better, then that means he can also lose any advantage that he currently holds over other juniors... which in turn is so hard to believe due to the extremety of his domincance over them, but still. It would be easier to believe had this been a sport that was not popular, that only few people in the world practiced competitively. So, i guess i'm just waiting for the other shoe to drop. What's the explanation. I've even considered doping, but he would be the dumbest kid to win so much, so dominantly, knowing his performances would get all the attention. It's just not logical, and since Belgium is such a small - cyclo centered country, there is no way he could have without guys like Lefevre knowing.

I'm just trying to keep it logical, and not believe the mutants are taking over the world.

Adrien Costa was similar talent...and never won anything in the adult league.

That's just not true at all. He didn't win the Peace race when he was a 2nd year junior. He didn't become World champ, neither on the road, nor the ITT. Let alone with the dominance that Remco showed. That's just it. Just name the best juniors, the ones that did dominate. Their achievements just fall so short. Had his achievements been comparable to Costa, Sagan, Kwiatkovski... then it would make some sense. But even those guys don't come close.

Also Costa gave up on cycling before his carreer had actually started, so you can't compare that either.

 

[armchairclimber]

Well, by the middle of next week, after the San Juan ITT, we'll all know how he stacks up in the senior ranks. He might just have a discovery mission on the other stages but on that stage, he'll be going for it for sure. Shall we have fun and guess where he'll place? 1st, top 5, 5 to 10, below 10th being the choices. I'm going to stay 5 - 10th. But I hope he wins, just for the fun.

 

[Flamin]

Re:

Well, by the middle of next week, after the San Juan ITT, we'll all know how he stacks up in the senior ranks. He might just have a discovery mission on the other stages but on that stage, he'll be going for it for sure. Shall we have fun and guess where he'll place? 1st, top 5, 5 to 10, below 10th being the choices. I'm going to stay 5 - 10th. But I hope he wins, just for the fun.

Does anyone hope he doesn't? somewhere around 5th I think.

 

[Jancouver]

Double post

 

[Jancouver]

Adrien Costa was similar talent...and never won anything in the adult league.

That's just not true at all. He didn't win the Peace race when he was a 2nd year junior. He didn't become World champ, neither on the road, nor the ITT. Let alone with the dominance that Remco showed. That's just it. Just name the best juniors, the ones that did dominate. Their achievements just fall so short. Had his achievements been comparable to Costa, Sagan, Kwiatkovski... then it would make some sense. But even those guys don't come close.

Also Costa gave up on cycling before his carreer had actually started, so you can't compare that either.

Exactly,

Costa was the next "Lemond" and it turned out that he could not manage it in his head and gave up when one of his teammates got fatally injured.

So having crazy results in junior ranks does not automatically translate into success on the road.

Is he going to be able to manage his successes and disappointments? Who knows!

I think he got good chances to be great, and his biggest advantage is that he signed for QS. They know how to win races.

We shall see, but I'm not expecting much this year.

Also, usually guys that can do it all are not winning much as there always is a better climber that sucks at sprinting, better sprinters that sucks at climbing, and better TT specialist that sucks at everything else.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Adrien Costa was similar talent...and never won anything in the adult league.

That's just not true at all. He didn't win the Peace race when he was a 2nd year junior. He didn't become World champ, neither on the road, nor the ITT. Let alone with the dominance that Remco showed. That's just it. Just name the best juniors, the ones that did dominate. Their achievements just fall so short. Had his achievements been comparable to Costa, Sagan, Kwiatkovski... then it would make some sense. But even those guys don't come close.

Also Costa gave up on cycling before his carreer had actually started, so you can't compare that either.

Exactly,

Costa was the next "Lemond" and it turned out that he could not manage it in his head and gave up when one of his teammates got fatally injured.

So having crazy results in junior ranks does not automatically translate into success on the road.

Is he going to be able to manage his successes and disappointments? Who knows!

I think he got good chances to be great, and his biggest advantage is that he signed for QS. They know how to win races.

We shall see, but I'm not expecting much this year.

Also, usually guys that can do it all are not winning much as there always is a better climber that sucks at sprinting, better sprinters that sucks at climbing, and better TT specialist that sucks at everything else.

Well, first of all, Remco isn't good at everything. He lacks punch (also uphill). He can't sprint. Like i said, he's more like Indurain than like Sagan. He has an insane motor, and he's short (and light). That's why he's good at ITT and that's why he's a fantastic tempoclimber. He's like Cancellara at half the weight.

Secondly, Costa may have been heralded as the next Lemond because he was an outstanding junior. But it was still within the realm of "normal". This just isn't the case for Remco. It's just not normal what he did. He wasn't just "the best". It was like a boxing match between a worldchampion heavyweight vs a 3 year old girl... with a disabillity. That's how insane the gap was. He won when and how he felt like it. The only times when he couldn't was because he was naive or crashed, like when he assumed Ghermay was dead in his wheel, and he dragged him to the finish line for 40k to be beaten in the sprint. That's inexperience and naive due to him only racing for a year at that time. Nobody came close. Ten minutes at the Euro Championships... half the peloton taken out of the race because they were LAPPED. Seriously.

And last of all, well, he could get hit by a truck, he could get depressed, quit cycling, get addicted to heroine, or a piano could drop on his head. Many things could go wrong that have nothing to do with racing. That's just life. It doesn't mean the promise or the potential is any less. The fact that Costa quit, doesn't negate the fact that he could have been a great pro. It's silly to take such things into consideration because it's something you can't forsee.

 

[Flamin]

You're on fire, FIYL but you're right of course (except for him being naive vs Ghirmay).

What do you think he will do in the San Juan ITT?

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re:

Well, by the middle of next week, after the San Juan ITT, we'll all know how he stacks up in the senior ranks. He might just have a discovery mission on the other stages but on that stage, he'll be going for it for sure. Shall we have fun and guess where he'll place? 1st, top 5, 5 to 10, below 10th being the choices. I'm going to stay 5 - 10th. But I hope he wins, just for the fun.

He'll be way up there, based on his Worlds ITT, also considering it's only on day 3. Assuming he has adjusted to his bike, which I think is likely. I expect a top result, especially in this field. Brändle may not be in top shape, either.

A top 5 would be my guess. A win would not be a big surprise, either.

It's the selective road stages I'm more interested in. I don't expect too much there.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Re:

You're on fire, FIYL but you're right of course (except for him being naive vs Ghirmay).

What do you think he will do in the San Juan ITT?

Well, I've said it a couple of times, i think he'll have the best chance of getting his first win this year, in a short-ish ITT of a third (fourth) tier stage race, especially at a time the big boys aren't in top shape. Knowing he has said that he wants to be ready for his debut in San Juan and will likely be closer to top form than the rest of the peloton, this may be his first (and best) chance to get a win this year.

I don't know exactly who else (ITT specialists) will be at San Juan. But i actually expect him on the podium, unless there are worldclass timetrialists there or unless something goes wrong. Maybe he would have liked the ITT to be a bit longer. Maybe 5K or so.

 

[tobydawq]

I don't just do that with Evenepoel. I also do that with other riders, like van der Poel. The difference is, when i do it with van der Poel, i'm regarded as a nationalistic ***, who is envious because he's Belgian, lol. (While MVDP is my second favorite CX rider).

Yeah, I have poked to you for doing that with van der Poel as well. I think he will podium the classics, be a GVA/Sagan level player, you think he will do worse than Van Aert did last year (not that that was bad, mind).

But I actually thought that was because you liked van der Poel and put up som walls of defense in the shape of low expectations so you would be able to point to that and claim to not be disappointed in the unlikely event that he does not succeed even though you would be disheartened - and surprised.

The thing with Evenepoel is that there are just a few things that are hard to put your finger on. He's just an outlier, so extreme, that there is in fact noone else to compare him with, than Merckx... And we really don't want to do that. We can't believe that, so... what then? The fact remains that his dominance was just so extreme, that it defies logic. You could say, that he's physically more fullgrown (he's from January). Ok, sure. But that only takes us so far - because last year he rode Le Grand Ballon only a few seconds slower than Lambrecht, who in turn only lost one minute to Bernal in l'Avenir and those guys are 3 years older than Evenepoel. He rides ITTs comparable to those of the best U23 riders, 2-4 years older as well. So you can't say he's got a few months headstart on the other juniors, because he would still have been (among) the best in the U23 bracket, if not the best (just think about the time he lost to Bjerg in the ITT and factoring in the difference in gears, knowing that Bjerg is an ITT specialist and an outlier in his own right).

He's been an outlier when it comes to endurance at his football clubs, since he was a small kid. Usually, this doesn't happen at a constant rate, kids get grow spurts then they stagnate, other kids will catch up, or overtake, and then one kid will again develop faster, and so on. So, being ahead of the curve physically, being from January... only explains a small part of that.

Ok. So he's had a personal trainer for years, a guy that knows him inside out. Since he was playing football. Other junior riders often don't have a personal trainer. Other juniors don't train twice a day, which Evenepoel did as a junior. (His trainer said, that it's not about training twice a day, but being physically ABLE to cope with it twice a day, that if other juniors would have tried, they would burn themselves up, that again, Remco here is an outlier). But you know, maybe some other kids would have been able, but didn't know it of themselves. Maybe there are a few other Remcos in the peloton, who just aren't as fullgrown, who are 11 months younger, who didn't have a personal trainer, who didn't train twice a day, because they did in fact fear they would burn themselves out even though they wouldn't. Guys who didn't go in the attack 90k from the finish because they didn't know they were capable of such exploits (having learned to wait, not to attack too soon, etc... so by the time they'd consider attacking, Evenepoel is long gone).

Because again, taking what we are seeing at face value... it's simply scary. Impossible even. I mean, there has to be something. Either he is a freak of nature, that passes by only once every 50 years, or there has to be another explanation. His age, his growth, having a personal trainer, his training schedule...

In conclusion, assuming he is not a once in a lifetime anomaly, assuming he isn't a new Merckx, a Michael Phelps, a Michael Jordan, or Muhammad Ali... then he can't be thàt much better than the others, can he. Then there has to be another explanation. And if he is indeed not that much better, then that means he can also lose any advantage that he currently holds over other juniors... which in turn is so hard to believe due to the extremety of his domincance over them, but still. It would be easier to believe had this been a sport that was not popular, that only few people in the world practiced competitively. So, i guess i'm just waiting for the other shoe to drop. What's the explanation. I've even considered doping, but he would be the dumbest kid to win so much, so dominantly, knowing his performances would get all the attention. It's just not logical, and since Belgium is such a small - cyclo centered country, there is no way he could have without guys like Lefevre knowing.

I'm just trying to keep it logical, and not believe the mutants are taking over the world.

I believe he can win the Vuelta a San Juan. He has just been destroying everything last year and is clearly much better than most pros. He might even have timed his form for this race, which his potential rivals have not.

Allegedly, he is not very fast, so he wouldn't be this all-round monstrosity many people expect him to be. I still have to see him try a sprint to assess that properly, though.

Adrien Costa was similar talent...and never won anything in the adult league.

That's just not true at all. He didn't win the Peace race when he was a 2nd year junior. He didn't become World champ, neither on the road, nor the ITT. Let alone with the dominance that Remco showed. That's just it. Just name the best juniors, the ones that did dominate. Their achievements just fall so short. Had his achievements been comparable to Costa, Sagan, Kwiatkovski... then it would make some sense. But even those guys don't come close.

Also Costa gave up on cycling before his carreer had actually started, so you can't compare that either.

Plus, you know, he lost a leg...

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Yeah, I have poked to you for doing that with van der Poel as well. I think he will podium the classics, be a GVA/Sagan level player, you think he will do worse than Van Aert did last year (not that that was bad, mind).

But I actually thought that was because you liked van der Poel and put up som walls of defense in the shape of low expectations so you would be able to point to that and claim to not be disappointed in the unlikely event that he does not succeed even though you would be disheartened - and surprised.

I don't necesarilly think he'll do worse than Van Aert. But Van Aert did have a great first year, people shouldn't underestimate that and just assume van der Poel will do better, because he kicked Van Aert's ass the past two seasons in the field. In fact, a major reason why Van Aert hasn't been as good as he was in CX, is that he's been focussing on the road for the past two seasons. So what he lost in CX, he gained on the road. Mathieu hasn't made the same commitment. So while i absolutely don't rule out the fact that he'll be up there with the big guys in the finals, i don't just assume he will be.

I believe he can win the Vuelta a San Juan.

:lol: Yes, we have a different approach towards dealing with expectations.

PS: to be fair, Costa lost his leg after he had already decided to leave the peloton for a while. But still, he shouldn't be an example of a talented guy who failed as a pro.

PPS: Remco's no longer 18!

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re: Re:

You're on fire, FIYL but you're right of course (except for him being naive vs Ghirmay).

What do you think he will do in the San Juan ITT?

Well, I've said it a couple of times, i think he'll have the best chance of getting his first win this year, in a short-ish ITT of a third (fourth) tier stage race, especially at a time the big boys aren't in top shape. Knowing he has said that he wants to be ready for his debut in San Juan and will likely be closer to top form than the rest of the peloton, this may be his first (and best) chance to get a win this year.

I don't know exactly who else (ITT specialists) will be at San Juan. But i actually expect him on the podium, unless there are worldclass timetrialists there or unless something goes wrong. Maybe he would have liked the ITT to be a bit longer. Maybe 5K or so.

My cycling knowledge isn't great, but the field looks weak, as far as ITT specialists are concerned.

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/vuelta-ciclista-a-la-provincia-de-san-juan/2019/stage-1/startlist

Like I said, somehow I doubt Brändle will be in this kind of form
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-of-denmark/2017/stage-4


Alaphilippe and Hodeg may not be specialists, but have done pretty well in this short, flat ITT.
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/uae-tour/2018/stage-4

Though I suppose weather conditions were favorable. Hodeg didn't do much in the San Juan ITT last year, so can probably be disregarded.

So, Brändle and maybe Alaphilippe, if he can be bothered. Who else?

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

You're on fire, FIYL but you're right of course (except for him being naive vs Ghirmay).

What do you think he will do in the San Juan ITT?

Well, I've said it a couple of times, i think he'll have the best chance of getting his first win this year, in a short-ish ITT of a third (fourth) tier stage race, especially at a time the big boys aren't in top shape. Knowing he has said that he wants to be ready for his debut in San Juan and will likely be closer to top form than the rest of the peloton, this may be his first (and best) chance to get a win this year.

I don't know exactly who else (ITT specialists) will be at San Juan. But i actually expect him on the podium, unless there are worldclass timetrialists there or unless something goes wrong. Maybe he would have liked the ITT to be a bit longer. Maybe 5K or so.

My cycling knowledge isn't great, but the field looks weak, as far as ITT specialists are concerned.

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/vuelta-ciclista-a-la-provincia-de-san-juan/2019/stage-1/startlist

Like I said, somehow I doubt Brändle will be in this kind of form
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-of-denmark/2017/stage-4


Alaphilippe and Hodeg may not be specialists, but have done pretty well in this short, flat ITT.
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/uae-tour/2018/stage-4

Though I suppose weather conditions were favorable. Hodeg didn't do much in the San Juan ITT last year, so can probably be disregarded.

So, Brändle and maybe Alaphilippe, if he can be bothered. Who else?

Tom Bohli.

But if they won't use TT bikes, Sagan could also win it.

 

[Panda Claws]

Plus, you know, he lost a leg...

While that is indeed tragic he had already given up on cycling by that point and was not going to ride that season.

 

[ciranda]

I like him. He used fourteen safety pins for the world's time trial starting number. In the road race it was impressive how Vacek knocked himself out when he tried to follow. Most of all I like how the most important thing for him after the world's time trial was to run over to his parents.