Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Sevilla is reasonably close in build and he was an okay TT rider way back in the day. And he probably lost over 4.5 s/km on the non-climb part of the ITT.

With such power advantage (I do not believe that it's only aerodynamics) it's a mystery to me why Evenepoel isn't a better climber relatively.

Not sure what you mean. He had been working for 15km himself (with a few others), while McNulty, Martin etc, were doing no work at all in the first group, and still Evenepoel was one of the strongest on the steepest part of the climb.

But it's not just aero, obviously, no. His wattages have been posted in this topic, and he weighs over 4kg less than January last year (below 60kg now according to last years info minus 4).

 

[roundabout]

Not sure what you mean. He had been working for 15km himself (with a few others), while McNulty, Martin etc, were doing no work at all in the first group, and still Evenepoel was one of the strongest on the steepest part of the climb.

He was over 3 km/h faster than McNulty in the ITT. That's a huge margin (over 1 W/kg ceteris parebus). Even chasing, even having better aerodynamics, even on a climb where it's easier to follow, he probably should have been able to drop McNulty.

 

[MatParker117]

There are five people who can win the Giro this year. Remco, Carapaz, Yates, Bardet & Nibali with Remco's support likely being the weakest of the five. Will he win a jersey? Yes if he stays on his bike for three weeks Will it be Pink? This year I don't think that it will be.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He was over 3 km/h faster than McNulty in the ITT. That's a huge margin (over 1 W/kg ceteris parebus). Even chasing, even having better aerodynamics, even on a climb where it's easier to follow, he probably should have been able to drop McNulty.

He was always going to blow McNulty away in the ITT. But the gap should not have been so big. If you look at McNulty's last part of the ITT, you can see the weather was not in his favor, and the final 1k, the wind was really head on. I think he might have lost 20 to 30 seconds due to worse weather conditions.

Which would still be a big gap ofcourse, but yeah. I think it also was the type of climb that was just not steep enough to make a difference if you have no punch to get a gap or aren't being given some space. But again, i think he was better than McNulty and Martin on the steep parts of the climb, and he definitely had done a lot more work than them. So, i'm not worried, but i agree he didn't manage to impose his will. We'll see what happens in Algarve and Tirreno next.

 

[red_flanders]

Sevilla is reasonably close in build and he was an okay TT rider way back in the day. And he probably lost over 4.5 s/km on the non-climb part of the ITT.

With such power advantage (I do not believe that it's only aerodynamics) it's a mystery to me why Evenepoel isn't a better climber relatively.

Probably because he’s barely 20, pulled the group up through to an echelon, and climbed just fine, attacking several times when he didn’t need to. Are we really finding fault with his climbing today? Come on.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Yeah, Evenepoel is barely 20. Pogacar was 20 and a half when he won Algarve. Generational talents... crazy high expectations. It may not be fair, but it is what it is.

So yeah, it's to be expected that some people expected even more, given Evenepoel's talent, his impressive San Juan TT and his weight loss. He did say he lost a lot of power in the chase, so there's that, but Sevilla was in the same echelon and didn't look so hot at the time, yet finished in the same group as Evenepoel.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Yeah, Evenepoel is barely 20. Pogacar was 20 and a half when he won Algarve. Generational talents... crazy high expectations. It may not be fair, but it is what it is.

So yeah, it's to be expected that some people expected even more, given Evenepoel's talent, his impressive San Juan TT and his weight loss. He did say he lost a lot of power in the chase, so there's that, but Sevilla was in the same echelon and didn't look so hot at the time, yet finished in the same group as Evenepoel.

The problem was that the climb wasn’t selective enough to allow him to just ride off the front.

 

[Red Rick]

Seeing as his aerobic capacity is his great asset, him doing work and then not being much worse off on the climb isn't that strange.

What's his next race?

 

[Merckx index]

Valverde's first win was when he was 23 years old - 1954.

Yeah, but how many riders can keep winning till they're almost 90?

I think 7,3/7,4 watt per kg is possible for him in a couple of years.

You mean on the Mur de Huy?

When you're in the store choosing which type of bread to buy or when you are deciding which music album to listen to.

I think you're confusing cognitive dissonance with being hesitant, or not being able to make up your mind. I can't imagine someone experiencing cognitive dissonance while buying bread, unless you really love white bread but know it's not as healthy for you as whole wheat.

 

[tobydawq]

Seeing as his aerobic capacity is his great asset, him doing work and then not being much worse off on the climb isn't that strange.

What's his next race?

Algarve, I think.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I think you're confusing cognitive dissonance with being hesitant, or not being able to make up your mind. I can't imagine someone experiencing cognitive dissonance while buying bread, unless you really love white bread but know it's not as healthy for you as whole wheat.

I'm not confusing anything. The point was that is very common, something everybody does on almost a daily basis.

 

[Andre]

Too bad he won't be in the Tour this year.

 

[red_flanders]

Yeah, Evenepoel is barely 20. Pogacar was 20 and a half when he won Algarve. Generational talents... crazy high expectations. It may not be fair, but it is what it is.

So yeah, it's to be expected that some people expected even more, given Evenepoel's talent, his impressive San Juan TT and his weight loss. He did say he lost a lot of power in the chase, so there's that, but Sevilla was in the same echelon and didn't look so hot at the time, yet finished in the same group as Evenepoel.

I found his power and climbing incredibly impressive. From a tactical standpoint he made a big mistake, not being attentive enough as the race leader and letting that echelon form ahead of him. But the response and the finish were almost shocking. You almost never see an echelon like that brought back, and a kid who turned 20 a week ago, with about 3 years of bike racing drove the group, then attacked on the climb repeatedly-at 2400 meters-and finished with the lead group. It’s nutty what he did.

Tactically he got schooled, as would be expected. I assume he’ll internalize that lesson.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Too bad he won't be in the Tour this year.

Giro should be plenty.

 

[Bonimenier]

He should always have been in Stybars wheel, the most experienced rider in crosswinds in DQS, at the point the echelons formed. Great ride afterwards, can't expect much more after such a chase.

Better that it happened in a pretty irrelevant race. He learns quick, I don't think he will get surprised again the next time.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He should always have been in Stybars wheel, the most experienced rider in crosswinds in DQS, at the point the echelons formed. Great ride afterwards, can't expect much more after such a chase.

Better that it happened in a pretty irrelevant race. He learns quick, I don't think he will get surprised again the next time.

He was cussing at himself. He thought he was "f#cked" and they "f#cked it up".

EDIT: in this interview (in Dutch) he blames himself and is frustrated and disappointed in himself that he missed the first group. He knows in a GT, this could be game over.
His teammates aren't to blame, he lost their wheel. The original plan was to go for the double (stage win + GC) but given the circumstances he's happy he saved the GC.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

There are five people who can win the Giro this year. Remco, Carapaz, Yates, Bardet & Nibali with Remco's support likely being the weakest of the five. Will he win a jersey? Yes if he stays on his bike for three weeks Will it be Pink? This year I don't think that it will be.

I don't think I'd even consider him a favorite. I'm really not sure how Remco can hang with these names in the high mountains. I'd love to be wrong, but I just can't see it. He'll make up some time in the TT, but surely he'll lose way more on the big stages. Surely??

 

[Põhja Konn]

I don't think I'd even consider him a favorite. I'm really not sure how Remco can hang with these names in the high mountains. I'd love to be wrong, but I just can't see it. He'll make up some time in the TT, but surely he'll lose way more on the big stages. Surely??

I agree that we just don't know yet, but with talent like him nothing can be ruled out. Because of this I consider him as a dark horse for the Giro, not as one of the favourites right now. Anyway, let's see how he'll do at other shorter stage races before the Giro.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I don't think I'd even consider him a favorite. I'm really not sure how Remco can hang with these names in the high mountains. I'd love to be wrong, but I just can't see it. He'll make up some time in the TT, but surely he'll lose way more on the big stages. Surely??

I don't consider him a favorite either. I don't even automatically assume he will finish the Giro. I can also see him lose 25 minutes on one stage, and focus on stage wins from then on. But on the other hand... if he finishes in the top 10, i have to be honest, i'm not going to say i could never have imagined it. Most likely scenario (imho), he'll take a stage win maybe wear pink a few days, and finish somewhere around 20th in GC. And that would be perfectly fine.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He wins his second stage race. Overall and youth classification of the Vuelta a San Juan.

 

[Rik Van Looy]

I don't consider him a favorite either. I don't even automatically assume he will finish the Giro. I can also see him lose 25 minutes on one stage, and focus on stage wins from then on. But on the other hand... if he finishes in the top 10, i have to be honest, i'm not going to say i could never have imagined it. Most likely scenario (imho), he'll take a stage win maybe wear pink a few days, and finish somewhere around 20th in GC. And that would be perfectly fine.

Some betting offices offer already 7 to 1. The highest is 12 to 1 Remco winning the Giro. Most are below 10 to 1. They have more confidence in Remco than the persons posting messages on this board. Before the Tour of San Juan Remco was at 17 to 1.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Some betting offices offer already 7 to 1. The highest is 12 to 1 Remco winning the Giro. Most are below 10 to 1. They have more confidence in Remco than the persons posting messages on this board. Before the Tour of San Juan Remco was at 17 to 1.

They don't do that because they think he will be that good, they do that because there are enough idiots to take that bet and so they can milk them for more money when Evenepoel doesn't win the Giro. They simply look at how popular the bet is and how much they can get away with. Those bets are in turn not taken by experts on all things Remco , but by people who have likely not followed Remco as close as people in this topic. The fact that he won San Juan and went from 17 to 1 all the way down to 7 to 1, is proof of that. As if winning San Juan is a benchmark for the Giro.

 

[tobydawq]

As if winning San Juan is a benchmark for the Giro.

You didn't see how the odds of Ganna ending on the Giro podium have been plummeting to the ground this week?

 

[Bonimenier]

The odds probably went down that much because the difference in the TT between him and the rest was so big and there are 3 of them in the Giro. But San Juan still did not say that much about how his climbing will compare to the best climbers in the Giro. Also a lot has to do with the hype there is about Remco. Even for the WC he was the 4th or 5th betting favourite even though he was there just to help Gilbert and Van Avermaet.

 

[Red Rick]

The good old betting odds arguments. I do recall Sagan being a top 10 favorite for Innsbruck?

Anyway, probably top 5 favorite to win, not a top 5 favorite to top 5. Betting markets don't reflect real form they reflect how a bunch of people interpret a result and it's usually skewed by popularity and hype.