Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Volderke]

I think bernal will be a lot superior than remco in the mountains and win the giro.
But don't get me wrong, remco is a great talent, he will win a lot of grand tours in the future.

It doesn't matter how good Remco / Egan are, but if you say Bernal is a lot superior, and in the next sentence you say he will win a lot of grand tours, logic is not your friend.

You can only win a lot of grand tours if no riders are 'a lot superior', because if so, those riders will win 'a lot of grand tours', and you won't. I have the feeling you wrote that last sentence in order to please Remco's fanboys.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

It doesn't matter how good Remco / Egan are, but if you say Bernal is a lot superior, and in the next sentence you say he will win a lot of grand tours, logic is not your friend.

You can only win a lot of grand tours if no riders are 'a lot superior', because if so, those riders will win 'a lot of grand tours', and you won't. I have the feeling you wrote that last sentence in order to please Remco's fanboys.

Pretty clear he meant Bernal will be superior in the mountains during this Giro and will win as a result, which does not preclude Remco being as good or better in the future. Plus the age gap. Plus the fact that there are 3 GTs every year. Plus stuff happens (like last Tour when Bernal,a back took him out).

 

[Froome]

It doesn't matter how good Remco / Egan are, but if you say Bernal is a lot superior, and in the next sentence you say he will win a lot of grand tours, logic is not your friend.

You can only win a lot of grand tours if no riders are 'a lot superior', because if so, those riders will win 'a lot of grand tours', and you won't. I have the feeling you wrote that last sentence in order to please Remco's fanboys.

He will win a lot of grand tours in the future because remco will improve in the mountains. But at this moment, remco isn't better than bernal in the mountains.

 

[Poursuivant]

I really think he will limit the damage in the mountains very well, a lot better than people on here have predicted.

 

[frisenfruitig]

He will win a lot of grand tours in the future because remco will improve in the mountains. But at this moment, remco isn't better than bernal in the mountains.

You say that as if it's clearly a fact that Evenepoel needs to improve significantly uphill when we haven't seen that demonstrated yet though. It may well be true, but the opposite could be the case for all we know. I suppose we'll know after this giro; so far he has looked quite comfortable.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Let's put it this way, he has the potential to win future GT's, not will win a lot. There is no guarantees apart from taxes and death. Everything has to go his way, just like previous winners of GT's. Good luck to the lad, top 5? very good chance, win? be bloody hard.

 

[remcredo]

The Pink Jersey is so close ...

For me it seems more likely that Remco will be able to follow tomorrow, but that Bernal and 1 or 2 other followers will just take away the bonification seconds that will put Bernal in pink. If Bernal then turns out to be better in the high mountains and eventually wins the Giro, then Remco would have come very close, but would never have worn pink. That would be pretty sad ...

Anyway winning the Giro by 10 minutes still is an option.

 

[Froome]

The Pink Jersey is so close ...

For me it seems more likely that Remco will be able to follow tomorrow, but that Bernal and 1 or 2 other followers will just take away the bonification seconds that will put Bernal in pink. If Bernal then turns out to be better in the high mountains and eventually wins the Giro, then Remco would have come very close, but would never have worn pink. That would be pretty sad ...

Anyway winning the Giro by 10 minutes still is an option.

Bernal and ineos don't want the pink jersey tomorrow to not tire the team. Just in the last week they want the jersey.

 

[Froome]

Let's put it this way, he has the potential to win future GT's, not will win a lot. There is no guarantees apart from taxes and death. Everything has to go his way, just like previous winners of GT's. Good luck to the lad, top 5? very good chance, win? be bloody hard.

Just my prediction, of course it could not happens.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He said in a pre-race interview that he felt a bit tired for the past two days. But in a different interview a few hours earlier or later, he said he feels he's getting stronger day by day. Probably blowing smoke to keep people guessing. Though maybe feeling tired doesn't mean you can't feel getting stronger. Anyway, if you look at his face on the final climb 2 days ago, Martin and Ciccone look like they're being tortured, while he looks like he's taking a stroll in Bernal's wheel.

 

[kingjr]

He said in a pre-race interview that he felt a bit tired for the past two days. But in a different interview a few hours earlier or later, he said he feels he's getting stronger day by day. Probably blowing smoke to keep people guessing. Though maybe feeling tired doesn't mean you can't feel getting stronger. Anyway, if you look at his face on the final climb 2 days ago, Martin and Ciccone look like they're being tortured, while he looks like he's taking a stroll in Bernal's wheel.

Martin always looks like that though

 

[hayneplane]

He said in a pre-race interview that he felt a bit tired for the past two days. But in a different interview a few hours earlier or later, he said he feels he's getting stronger day by day. Probably blowing smoke to keep people guessing. Though maybe feeling tired doesn't mean you can't feel getting stronger. Anyway, if you look at his face on the final climb 2 days ago, Martin and Ciccone look like they're being tortured, while he looks like he's taking a stroll in Bernal's wheel.

Both could simultaneously be true. They should all be feeling tired after a weeks racing with half of it in horrible energy sapping weather and some tough if not truly selective terrain yet given he is gradually getting the rhythm of racing into his body and mind day by day he will likely be growing stronger and more comfortable with his position in the race.

 

[Nick2413]

You say that as if it's clearly a fact that Evenepoel needs to improve significantly uphill when we haven't seen that demonstrated yet though. It may well be true, but the opposite could be the case for all we know. I suppose we'll know after this giro; so far he has looked quite comfortable.

Can someone explain why a smaller rider who happens to be a TT superstar wouldn’t be the ideal build for mountains? Seems like the perfect fit. Obviously more complex but ideas?

 

[Bonimenier]

Can someone explain why a smaller rider who happens to be a TT superstar wouldn’t be the ideal build for mountains? Seems like the perfect fit. Obviously more complex but ideas?

I suppose the idea behind that logic is that he is very aero and the advantage of that decreases as the speed lowers.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Can someone explain why a smaller rider who happens to be a TT superstar wouldn’t be the ideal build for mountains? Seems like the perfect fit. Obviously more complex but ideas?

Many people seem to be blinded and think a rider who is an elite TTer can not be a climber. And while that may be true for many TT'ers, it obviously is a completely different story when a rider is small and weighs 60kg. It comes down to watts and weight, and the ratio in his case is quite positive. Another thing in Evenepoel's case is that he's a regular diesel with a terrible acceleration, so he doesn't climb like a small lightweight. He climbs like he TTs. And finally some people think that because he hasn't climbed multiple HC climbs for days on end in a GT, that chances are that he won't be able to do that consistently. Which could be true, since we haven't seen it yet, but then you could ask yourself the question if Sosa and Kuss are good climbers. If you're referring to the comment of Roundabout, that was indeed about his aero build being an extra advantage on less steep climbs. Which doesn't mean he could not be great at steep climbs as well.

I think most of it is wishful thinking that he has at least one big weakness that can be exploited. It's been 3 years that people have been telling us what he can't do, because reasons. I think in many cases it's because those reasons are fear. What if he turned out to be what DNP-old said he could turn out to be, 3 years ago, when he made this topic (and i'm not talking about the title). So far there are many more plausible reasons to assume he can be a great climber, than the contrary. But he hasn't done it, so we "don't know".

 

[bNator]

Many people seem to be blinded and think a rider who is an elite TTer can not be a climber. And while that may be true for many TT'ers, it obviously is a completely different story when a rider is small and weighs 60kg. It comes down to watts and weight, and the ratio in his case is quite positive. Another thing in Evenepoel's case is that he's a regular diesel with a terrible acceleration, so he doesn't climb like a small lightweight. He climbs like he TTs. And finally some people think that because he hasn't climbed multiple HC climbs for days on end in a GT, that chances are that he won't be able to do that consistently. Which could be true, since we haven't seen it yet, but then you could ask yourself the question if Sosa and Kuss are good climbers. If you're referring to the comment of Roundabout, that was indeed about his aero build being an extra advantage on less steep climbs. Which doesn't mean he could not be great at steep climbs as well.

I think most of it is wishful thinking that he has at least one big weakness that can be exploited. It's been 3 years that people have been telling us what he can't do, because reasons. I think in many cases it's because those reasons are fear. What if he turned out to be what DNP-old said he could turn out to be, 3 years ago, when he made this topic (and i'm not talking about the title). So far there are many more plausible reasons to assume he can be a great climber, than the contrary. But he hasn't done it, so we "don't know".

This entire discussion is more religion than science. He hasn’t done it and we don’t know. That’s the only real fact here. And then you have believers and non-believers, trying to convince each other there is factual evidence to support their claims.


And it’s a bit absurd at times, because I think there’s far to many variables here to draw any meaningful conclusion. Sure, he could only be doing well in less steep climbs due to his aerodynamic posture but then again, he could also just be a very good climber who will benefit even more on steeper gradients. Ironically, all shall be revealed very soon and this argument will be a bit obsolete. But I guess that’s precisely why people here invest so much into supporting their claims. Because “I told you so” moment will be spectacular come Zoncolan

 

[spalco]

Because “I told you so” moment will be spectacular come Zoncolan

Haha, oh yeah, people on both sides, and in between, are itching for that I'm sure.

 

[Offline]

Today's stage will be big, Ineos will attack. Can't be happy with Remco getting better day by day.

 

[roundabout]

That's an interesting theory, it's hard to say how much he's reliant on that aerodynamic position compared to the actual W/kg he's able to push. I remember him saying 2 or 3 years back that he was already able to push similar numbers as Froome so I doubt that's going to be an issue tbh.

Assuming a difference of 0.03 in CdA between Evenepoel and his average competition uphill and assuming no headwind and a few other assumptions/approximations

At 22 km/h he needs to produce 4W less to overcome aerodynamic drag
At 15 km/h it becomes 1.3W

At 0.05 CdA difference it's

at 22 km/h 6.8 W less
at 15km/h 2.2W less

So even though the actual numbers involved are rather small, going from 22 km/h to 15 km/h Evenepoel loses 2/3 of his aerodynamic advantage (assuming it exists). In terms of actual time effect on a climb like Zoncolan 4.6W is something like 25-30 seconds climb time difference for a rider like Evenepoel.

 

[frisenfruitig]

Assuming a difference of 0.03 in CdA between Evenepoel and his average competition uphill and assuming no headwind and a few other assumptions/approximations

At 22 km/h he needs to produce 4W less to overcome aerodynamic drag
At 15 km/h it becomes 1.3W

At 0.05 CdA difference it's

at 22 km/h 6.8 W less
at 15km/h 2.2W less

So even though the actual numbers involved are rather small, going from 22 km/h to 15 km/h Evenepoel loses 2/3 of his aerodynamic advantage (assuming it exists). In terms of actual time effect on a climb like Zoncolan 4.6W is something like 25-30 seconds climb time difference for a rider like Evenepoel.

That's a lot of assumptions since we don't know the actual watts he is able to sustain for an extended time though isn't it? It's an interesting thought experiment I suppose.

The same would apply to someone like Bernal who is also small and is very low on his bike would it not?

 

[Red Rick]

While Evenepoel is small, as a great TTer that is can't accelerate at all it's very logical to assume that steeper = worse.

However what does get ignored IMO is the physiological difference between steeper climbs and ITTs which comes down to muscle recruitment and gets quite complicated

 

[frisenfruitig]

While Evenepoel is small, as a great TTer that is can't accelerate at all it's very logical to assume that steeper = worse.

However what does get ignored IMO is the physiological difference between steeper climbs and ITTs which comes down to muscle recruitment and gets quite complicated

You don't need to be explosive to sustain a high pace on steep long climbs. Short climbs, sure. Power to weight ratio would be much more important for these kinds of efforts.

 

[Red Rick]

You don't need to be explosive to sustain a high pace on steep long climbs. Short climbs, sure. Power to weight ratio would be much more important for these kinds of efforts.

Case in point. Physiological difference gets often ignored. Even when I mention it.

 

[frisenfruitig]

Case in point. Physiological difference gets often ignored. Even when I mention it.

What physiological difference are you talking about though? The only difference I'm seeing is that Bernal is more explosive anaerobically. In terms of dragging yourself up a long steep climb, it remains to be seen if he doesn't have the qualities for that.

 

[Red Rick]

What physiological difference are you talking about though? The only difference I'm seeing is that Bernal is more explosive anaerobically. In terms of dragging yourself up a long steep climb, it remains to be seen if he doesn't have the qualities for that.

Pedaling strokes get different, power isn't uniformally distributed over a pedal stroke, and steep uphill, with low inertia the effect of this gets bigger.

Climbing vs time-trialling: same effort, different power output - CyclingTips

My 80-something kilograms put me at the heavier end of the spectrum when it comes to cyclists. Guys like me have always been associated with sprinting or time-trialling, but personally I’ve always been able to put out my best power on the climbs rather than on a flat time-trial. Why would there...

cyclingtips.com

Sci-Hub | Effect of Gradient on Cycling Gross Efficiency and Technique. Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise, 45(5), 920–926 | 10.1249/MSS.0b013e31827d1bdb