- Jun 6, 2017
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- May 5, 2021
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MAL data is biased because he only did an all-out effort on the last 3km of the climb.
My assumption is that Evenepoel tried to replicate his 7W/kg pre-season test on a 11% climb and succeeded.
This fits with MAL Strava data on this segment:
- 0 - 1 km: MAL losing 1'06"/km on Evenepoel at 273W
- 1 - 3 km: MAL losing 12"/km on Evenepoel at 396W (6.7W/kg if 59kg)
- 3 - 4 km: MAL losing 1"/km on Evenepoel at 412W (7W/kg if 59kg)
I think we can toss the "Evenepoel cannot cope with steep climbs" theory. Let's refocus on "bad endurance/recovery", "bad technique/positioning", or "bad preparation" theories. Or a combination of all.
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- Jun 7, 2011
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For now i will keep focus on my "fat ass" theory, thank you very much.MAL data is biased because he only did an all-out effort on the last 3km of the climb.
My assumption is that Evenepoel tried to replicate his 7W/kg pre-season test on a 11% climb and succeeded.
This fits with MAL Strava data on this segment:
This also fits with the data of Hindley, Reichenbach, ... Using a random web simulator and playing with the wind as a correction factor for weight/weather you get more 6.9 to 7.3 W/kg.
- 0 - 1 km: MAL losing 1'06"/km on Evenepoel at 273W
- 1 - 3 km: MAL losing 12"/km on Evenepoel at 396W (6.7W/kg if 59kg)
- 3 - 4 km: MAL losing 1"/km on Evenepoel at 412W (7W/kg if 59kg)
I think we can toss the "Evenepoel cannot cope with steep climbs" theory. Let's refocus on "bad endurance/recovery", "bad technique/positioning", or "bad preparation" theories. Or a combination of all.
In your simulator, i think Evenepoel currently weighs over 62. Easily. Wouldn't surprise me if he's back to 64.
- May 5, 2021
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This doesn't change the maths, even with 64kg he would need 7W/kg to climb at that speed. The only difference is that he would need to push 445W rather than 429 which would make it even more impressive (and unlikely)
- Jun 7, 2011
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I'm aware of that. I'm just saying he doesn't look nearly as skinny as at the beginning of 2020 (Algarve/Burgos) when he was supposedly around 61kg. And i think it doesn't help dragging the extra weight (even if it is muscle) climb after climb over the course of a week (let alone three).
MAL data is biased because he only did an all-out effort on the last 3km of the climb.
My assumption is that Evenepoel tried to replicate his 7W/kg pre-season test on a 11% climb and succeeded.
This fits with MAL Strava data on this segment:
This also fits with the data of Hindley, Reichenbach, ... Using a random web simulator and playing with the wind as a correction factor for weight/weather you get more 6.9 to 7.3 W/kg.
- 0 - 1 km: MAL losing 1'06"/km on Evenepoel at 273W
- 1 - 3 km: MAL losing 12"/km on Evenepoel at 396W (6.7W/kg if 59kg)
- 3 - 4 km: MAL losing 1"/km on Evenepoel at 412W (7W/kg if 59kg)
I think we can toss the "Evenepoel cannot cope with steep climbs" theory. Let's refocus on "bad endurance/recovery", "bad technique/positioning", or "bad preparation" theories. Or a combination of all.
Been thinking for a while now that he has a hard time when riding harder stages multiple days in a race. Itzulia seems to have limited hard days this year so I am very curious how he will do in that final stage.
Big Doopie
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- Oct 6, 2009
- 4,345
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well...looking at the world's course, if WvA wants a shot he best let Remco attack from 40kms out to force Pog/Ala/MVDP to wear themselves out chasing...
he has to be willing to let his teammate (possibly!) pull it off to have a shot himself.
let the debate begin!
he has to be willing to let his teammate (possibly!) pull it off to have a shot himself.
let the debate begin!
- Sep 14, 2020
- 1,750
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well...looking at the world's course, if WvA wants a shot he best let Remco attack from 40kms out to force Pog/Ala/MVDP to wear themselves out chasing...
he has to be willing to let his teammate (possibly!) pull it off to have a shot himself.
let the debate begin!
Has Van Aert done a press conference yet?
- Jun 7, 2011
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He's not feeling well today. Probably Remco's fault.
- Jul 7, 2013
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He's not feeling well today. Probably Remco's fault.
Have they had coffee together yet? Remco must have poured something into Wout's cup.
- Jun 7, 2011
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- Oct 31, 2018
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Here you can see the reaction of Remco, when he has to do a big training with Fausto and try and hold his pace. The picture tells the whole story
Fausto's going to be a really good domestique to get Remco that top 10 in Liège. Good he's working hard.
- Sep 14, 2020
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I add another one to the mix: he faces an abnormal power loss on steep climbs in conditions with a low normalized ambient temperature. I infer this from Turkey stage 5 (2019), Romandy stage 1 (2019), Adriatica-Ionica stage 2 (2019), Giro stage 4 and 14 (2021), Lombardy (2021) and Tirreno stage 6 (2022), so basically almost all of his "climb failures". Why and why he and not the other GC riders (as much)? It may be due to physiological reasons and/or preparation. In literature they link the body core temperature and it's stability to performance especially during steep climbs.
- Oct 13, 2021
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- Jun 7, 2011
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In Turkey he also just lost a 15 or so seconds, and it was one of his first pro races. In Romandie he had crashed 3 times that week iirc, including BEFORE the prologue. I think there might be something there, but i don't think you can conclude it was due to cold or rain everytime he loses 2 seconds.
The TA stage likely was a bad day early in the season.
You know who else also had these from time to time early in the season? Froome. Only difference is Froome would lose 20 minutes on his early season bad days. Remco loses 4 minutes
I agree and it's not the climbs where he loses a few seconds that are important. There are only a few cases where he clearly suffered during a climb and not just because he couln't follow the sprinting GC group during a steep section close to the finish. Apparantly this always happened in conditions where his body may have suffered from significant heat loss. That TA stage is a clear example. There was no indication that he was out of shape before that climb. He simply couldn't push the needed watt/kg at the very start of that climb when 25 riders could keep up with the pace. Even if he is 2-3 kg too heavy, he should still be able to follow that group.
- Feb 20, 2012
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I don't even remember Lombardia being cold last year.
Temperature can play a role in bonking or underperforming, but not this bad. He also seems way better at repetitions of <10 minute climbs than repetitions of 25 minute climbs, but then that one has a pretty bad sample size.
Another mildly confusing observation is that if his 20 minute w/kg depletes a lot over distance then why is he good at 50km solos in a road race although these are likely at or near threshold and not over treshold for very prolonged periods of time.
Temperature can play a role in bonking or underperforming, but not this bad. He also seems way better at repetitions of <10 minute climbs than repetitions of 25 minute climbs, but then that one has a pretty bad sample size.
Another mildly confusing observation is that if his 20 minute w/kg depletes a lot over distance then why is he good at 50km solos in a road race although these are likely at or near threshold and not over treshold for very prolonged periods of time.
- Apr 10, 2019
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I really don't get why they hard the idea that he needed extra muscle mass. If you look at his built he's already rather stocky for a gc rider, with big legs. He's not like on of those super skinny pure climbers who suffer a lot on the flat and probably need some more raw power/muscle mass to be more well rounded.
Having him focus on shorter, more explosive efforts when LBL is his goal for the fist half of the season makes sense, but having his training and the kind of intervals he does geared towards it should be enough, I don't think that there's a reason to have him put on extra muscle mass when we're talking about LBL and stage races.
Have him do some polymetrics and maybe even some track cycling over the winter to become a bit more explosive (mainly 1km and IP training), but unless you want to turn him into a cobbles rider I really don't know why you'd want him to put on extra muscle mass when he's already a great rouleur and TTer.
- Jun 7, 2011
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Indeed. So far the cons far outweigh the pros. Pelgrim said he would be a different rider by the time the Vuelta came. I hope so.
The temperature peaked at 13 degrees but it was likely significant colder at the hill tops. He actually said that his legs were cold when he had his bad moment at the passo di ganda. https://www.wielerflits.be/nieuws/r...de-van-lombardije-ik-ben-niet-te-ontgoocheld/
- Sep 11, 2016
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But Froome would go on to win the Tour as his main goal and not have warm up races as main goals.
- Jun 7, 2011
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