The Cycling News forum is looking to add some volunteer moderators with Red Rick's recent retirement. If you're interested in helping keep our discussions on track, send a direct message to
In the meanwhile, please use the Report option if you see a post that doesn't fit within the forum rules.
Thanks!
Or really bad choice, we'll see...That’s a very impressive KOM. Interesting to see if this translates into the race at Itzulia. Good choice by Quickstep to sent Evenepoel there, it might be a very good race for him if he has a good day on the final stage.
Around 6.6 W/Kg sounds closer to reality.
For now i will keep focus on my "fat ass" theory, thank you very much.MAL data is biased because he only did an all-out effort on the last 3km of the climb.
My assumption is that Evenepoel tried to replicate his 7W/kg pre-season test on a 11% climb and succeeded.
This fits with MAL Strava data on this segment:
This also fits with the data of Hindley, Reichenbach, ... Using a random web simulator and playing with the wind as a correction factor for weight/weather you get more 6.9 to 7.3 W/kg.
- 0 - 1 km: MAL losing 1'06"/km on Evenepoel at 273W
- 1 - 3 km: MAL losing 12"/km on Evenepoel at 396W (6.7W/kg if 59kg)
- 3 - 4 km: MAL losing 1"/km on Evenepoel at 412W (7W/kg if 59kg)
I think we can toss the "Evenepoel cannot cope with steep climbs" theory. Let's refocus on "bad endurance/recovery", "bad technique/positioning", or "bad preparation" theories. Or a combination of all.
For now i will keep focus on my "fat ass" theory, thank you very much.
In your simulator, i think Evenepoel currently weighs over 62. Easily. Wouldn't surprise me if he's back to 64.
I'm aware of that. I'm just saying he doesn't look nearly as skinny as at the beginning of 2020 (Algarve/Burgos) when he was supposedly around 61kg. And i think it doesn't help dragging the extra weight (even if it is muscle) climb after climb over the course of a week (let alone three).This doesn't change the maths, even with 64kg he would need 7W/kg to climb at that speed. The only difference is that he would need to push 445W rather than 429 which would make it even more impressive (and unlikely)
MAL data is biased because he only did an all-out effort on the last 3km of the climb.
My assumption is that Evenepoel tried to replicate his 7W/kg pre-season test on a 11% climb and succeeded.
This fits with MAL Strava data on this segment:
This also fits with the data of Hindley, Reichenbach, ... Using a random web simulator and playing with the wind as a correction factor for weight/weather you get more 6.9 to 7.3 W/kg.
- 0 - 1 km: MAL losing 1'06"/km on Evenepoel at 273W
- 1 - 3 km: MAL losing 12"/km on Evenepoel at 396W (6.7W/kg if 59kg)
- 3 - 4 km: MAL losing 1"/km on Evenepoel at 412W (7W/kg if 59kg)
I think we can toss the "Evenepoel cannot cope with steep climbs" theory. Let's refocus on "bad endurance/recovery", "bad technique/positioning", or "bad preparation" theories. Or a combination of all.
well...looking at the world's course, if WvA wants a shot he best let Remco attack from 40kms out to force Pog/Ala/MVDP to wear themselves out chasing...
he has to be willing to let his teammate (possibly!) pull it off to have a shot himself.
let the debate begin!
He's not feeling well today. Probably Remco's fault.Has Van Aert done a press conference yet?
He's not feeling well today. Probably Remco's fault.
After the Ardennes.Have they had coffee together yet? Remco must have poured something into Wout's cup.
Last long ride ✌🏻✅ - Fausto M's 179.2 km bike ride
Fausto M rode 179.2 km on Apr 18, 2021.www.strava.com
Here you can see the reaction of Remco, when he has to do a big training with Fausto and try and hold his pace. The picture tells the whole story
Have they had coffee together yet? Remco must have poured something into Wout's cup.
I think we can toss the "Evenepoel cannot cope with steep climbs" theory. Let's refocus on "bad endurance/recovery", "bad technique/positioning", or "bad preparation" theories. Or a combination of all.
I add another one to the mix: he faces an abnormal power loss on steep climbs in conditions with a low normalized ambient temperature. I infer this from Turkey stage 5 (2019), Romandy stage 1 (2019), Adriatica-Ionica stage 2 (2019), Giro stage 4 and 14 (2021), Lombardy (2021) and Tirreno stage 6 (2022), so basically almost all of his "climb failures". Why and why he and not the other GC riders (as much)? It may be due to physiological reasons and/or preparation. In literature they link the body core temperature and it's stability to performance especially during steep climbs.
@Ilmaestro99 will be out for you unjustifiably.Fausto's going to be a really good domestique to get Remco that top 10 in Liège. Good he's working hard.
I add another one to the mix: he faces an abnormal power loss on steep climbs in conditions with a low normalized ambient temperature. I infer this from Turkey stage 5 (2019), Romandy stage 1 (2019), Adriatica-Ionica stage 2 (2019), Giro stage 4 and 14 (2021), Lombardy (2021) and Tirreno stage 6 (2022), so basically almost all of his "climb failures". Why and why he and not the other GC riders (as much)? It may be due to physiological reasons and/or preparation. In literature they link the body core temperature and it's stability to performance especially during steep climbs.
In Turkey he also just lost a 15 or so seconds, and it was one of his first pro races. In Romandie he had crashed 3 times that week iirc, including BEFORE the prologue. I think there might be something there, but i don't think you can conclude it was due to cold or rain everytime he loses 2 seconds.To be fair, he lost a whole 11 seconds in stage 4 of the 2021 Giro
In Turkey he also just lost a 15 or so seconds, and it was one of his first pro races. In Romandie he had crashed 3 times that week iirc, including BEFORE the prologue. I think there might be something there, but i don't think you can conclude it was due to cold or rain everytime he loses 2 seconds.
In Turkey he also just lost a 15 or so seconds, and it was one of his first pro races. In Romandie he had crashed 3 times that week iirc, including BEFORE the prologue. I think there might be something there, but i don't think you can conclude it was due to cold or rain everytime he loses 2 seconds.
I really don't get why they hard the idea that he needed extra muscle mass. If you look at his built he's already rather stocky for a gc rider, with big legs. He's not like on of those super skinny pure climbers who suffer a lot on the flat and probably need some more raw power/muscle mass to be more well rounded.I'm aware of that. I'm just saying he doesn't look nearly as skinny as at the beginning of 2020 (Algarve/Burgos) when he was supposedly around 61kg. And i think it doesn't help dragging the extra weight (even if it is muscle) climb after climb over the course of a week (let alone three).
Indeed. So far the cons far outweigh the pros. Pelgrim said he would be a different rider by the time the Vuelta came. I hope so.I really don't get why they hard the idea that he needed extra muscle mass. If you look at his built he's already rather stocky for a gc rider, with big legs. He's not like on of those super skinny pure climbers who suffer a lot on the flat and probably need some more raw power/muscle mass to be more well rounded.
Having him focus on shorter, more explosive efforts when LBL is his goal for the fist half of the season makes sense, but having his training and the kind of intervals he does geared towards it should be enough, I don't think that there's a reason to have him put on extra muscle mass when we're talking about LBL and stage races.
Have him do some polymetrics and maybe even some track cycling over the winter to become a bit more explosive (mainly 1km and IP training), but unless you want to turn him into a cobbles rider I really don't know why you'd want him to put on extra muscle mass when he's already a great rouleur and TTer.
I don't even remember Lombardia being cold last year.